910 resultados para Probabilistic interpretation


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Includes bibliography

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One of the consequences of the recent international economic crisis has been the demand for new economic policy tools, to add to the well-established monetary, exchange-rate, and fiscal policy mechanisms. In particular, more effective ways are needed to regulate the financial system and prevent the emergence of imbalances that affect the real economy. In that context, macroprudential policy has been singled out as another economic-type public policy which could help maintain financial stability. Nonetheless, the discussions and development of the literature on this topic are founded on pragmatic considerations that are not directly related to the orthodox or heterodox schools of economic thought. So the aim of this article is to provide an institutionalist reading of macroprudential policy, to understand it in terms of the theoretical content of institutional approaches.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Front of the possibility of acting with the teachers who teach in schools of Early Childhood Education for children aged six years, about the re-siginification of the understanding of writing language and of the importance of the child in this age group establish a positive relationship with this mode of language, was developed in 2011, a project linked to the Teaching of UNESP titled “Depathologization learning of the writing and inclusive education: reflections and actions of the teacher of Early Childhood Education”. This project aims to identification of the actions, in the classroom, of the patologization and subsequent implementation of actions depathologization writing by teachers’ actions, considering the increasingly early systematization of formal education of this kind of language in kindergarten. To this end, procedures that characterize the collaborative methodology are adopted. Throughout the methodological course, the engagement of the teachers, of the coordination and of the direction was valued, which seemed to favor both the formation, as the maintenance of the group, were very important aspects to ensure the interaction between its members and the common interest in the reflection about the topic in question. This paper focuses attention on whether thematic axes highlight during the initial survey of the expectations of teachers subsequently addressed in theoretical and reflective meetings leading up to identification of actions the patologization and/or of the proposition of the actions despatologizadoras of the learning of the writing, and in what refers to the way they are addressed.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Objective - For patients with medication refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE), surgery offers the hope of a cure. However, up to 30% of patients with MTLE continue to experience disabling seizures after surgery. The reasons why some patients do not achieve seizure freedom are poorly understood. A promising theory suggests that epileptogenic networks are broadly distributed in surgically refractory MTLE, involving regions beyond the medial temporal lobe. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the distribution of epileptogenic networks in MTLE using Bayesian distributed EEG source analysis from preoperative ictal onset recordings. This analysis has the advantage of generating maps of source probability, which can be subjected to voxel-based statistical analyses.Methods - We compared 10 patients who achieved post-surgical seizure freedom with 10 patients who continued experiencing seizures after surgery. Voxel-based Wilcoxon tests were employed with correction for multiple comparisons.Results - We observed that ictal EEG source intensities were significantly more likely to occur in lateral temporal and posterior medial temporal regions in patients with continued seizures post-surgery.Conclusions - Our findings support the theory of broader spatial distribution of epileptogenic networks at seizure onset in patients with surgically refractory MTLE.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Periodontal disease progress by destructive acute phases intercalated by reparative chronic phases. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical and histological evidence of the periodontal disease reparative phase by analyzing bone wall conditions inside periodontal pockets and histologic images of periodontal pockets, identified in relevant publications. 81 patients with periodontitis, were randomly assigned into this study. Clinical and radiographic parameters were established to diagnose periodontal disease providing a sample of 133 diseased areas, which were treated by modified Widman flap. Documentation by digital photography were recorded in the surgery. Relevant publications showing histological images of periodontal pockets, were identified in Medline, PubMed and Google data base, were scanned and digitalized. All images obtained were evaluated and the presences of the reparative evidence in the zone around the underlying destroyed alveolar bone were critically analyzed. All periodontal bone defects, showed cortical bone reparations at different levels inside periodontal bone defects. All histologic images of periodontal pockets identified in relevant publications showed repaired gingival-attached connective tissue localized above underlying destroyed alveolar bone. All the evidences analyzed in this study suggested that periodontal disease is predominantly chronic, quiescent, showing reparative phases in different levels.

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Review of The Bible at Qumran: Text, Shape, and Interpretation, edited by Peter W. Flint. Studies in the Dead Sea Scrolls and Related Literature. Grand Rapids, MI: Eerdmans, 2001. Pp. xv + 266. Price: $22.00. ISBN 0-8028-4630-0. This volume is another contribution to the Eerdmans series Studies in the Dead Sea Scrolls and Related Literature. The essays are loosely gathered around the topic "The Bible at Qumran," and the editor has divided the articles into two groups. Part 1, "The Scriptures, the Canon, and the Scrolls," includes articles by J.A. Sanders, B.W. Waltke, E. Ulrich, C.A. Evans, and the editor, P.W. Flint. The contributors to Part 2, "Biblical Interpretation and the Dead Sea Scrolls," are J.C. VanderKam, C.A. Evans, J.E. Bowley, J.M. Scott, M.G. Abegg, and R.W. Wall. Unlike other volumes of collected essays in this series, which have highlighted the work of a single author or published the proceedings of a particular conference, this collection has a more disparate origin. Some contributions were given as papers at the Dead Sea Scrolls Institute of Trinity Western University (Bowley, Ulrich, VanderKam and Wall), one (Waltke) is reprinted from The New International Dictionary of Old Testament Theology and Exegesis (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1997), and the rest (Abegg, Evans, Flint, Sanders and Scott) were invited for the volume.

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Dentistry currently reveals itself to be open to new ideas about the construction of meanings for oral health. This openness leads to the social production of health revealing the contextualization of the social and historical aspects of the sundry knowledge in the development of oral health for different communities. With this research, we seek to build meanings for oral health with a group of elderly people. With this objective in mind, we propose an approximation between discourses on oral health mentioned by the elderly and the Social Constructionist discourse. We interviewed 14 elderly people enrolled in a Family Health Unit in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, in the first semester of 2010, and identified two interpretative repertoires through Discourse Analysis, which showed the relationship between 1 Lack of information and dental assistance in childhood, and 2 - Primary Health Care building the meaning of oral health. We concluded that Social Constructionism works epistemologically for the construction of meanings for oral health and that primary health is essential for appreciation and health care that enables the construction of meanings in oral health by the elderly that create conditions for self-care and healthy attitudes.

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Patterns of species interactions affect the dynamics of food webs. An important component of species interactions that is rarely considered with respect to food webs is the strengths of interactions, which may affect both structure and dynamics. In natural systems, these strengths are variable, and can be quantified as probability distributions. We examined how variation in strengths of interactions can be described hierarchically, and how this variation impacts the structure of species interactions in predator-prey networks, both of which are important components of ecological food webs. The stable isotope ratios of predator and prey species may be particularly useful for quantifying this variability, and we show how these data can be used to build probabilistic predator-prey networks. Moreover, the distribution of variation in strengths among interactions can be estimated from a limited number of observations. This distribution informs network structure, especially the key role of dietary specialization, which may be useful for predicting structural properties in systems that are difficult to observe. Finally, using three mammalian predator-prey networks ( two African and one Canadian) quantified from stable isotope data, we show that exclusion of link-strength variability results in biased estimates of nestedness and modularity within food webs, whereas the inclusion of body size constraints only marginally increases the predictive accuracy of the isotope-based network. We find that modularity is the consequence of strong link-strengths in both African systems, while nestedness is not significantly present in any of the three predator-prey networks.