Self-Organizing Mechanisms for Task Allocation in a Knowledge-Based Economy

A prevalent claim is that we are in knowledge economy. When we talk about knowledge economy, we generally mean the concept of “Knowledge-based economy” indicating the use of knowledge and technologies to produce economic benefits. Hence knowledge is both tool and raw material (people’s skill) for producing some kind of product or service. In this kind of environment economic organization is undergoing several changes. For example authority relations are less important, legal and ownership-based definitions of the boundaries of the firm are becoming irrelevant and there are only few constraints on the set of coordination mechanisms. Hence what characterises a knowledge economy is the growing importance of human capital in productive processes (Foss, 2005) and the increasing knowledge intensity of jobs (Hodgson, 1999). Economic processes are also highly intertwined with social processes: they are likely to be informal and reciprocal rather than formal and negotiated. Another important point is also the problem of the division of labor: as economic activity becomes mainly intellectual and requires the integration of specific and idiosyncratic skills, the task of dividing the job and assigning it to the most appropriate individuals becomes arduous, a “supervisory problem” (Hogdson, 1999) emerges and traditional hierarchical control may result increasingly ineffective. Not only specificity of know how makes it awkward to monitor the execution of tasks, more importantly, top-down integration of skills may be difficult because ‘the nominal supervisors will not know the best way of doing the job – or even the precise purpose of the specialist job itself – and the worker will know better’ (Hogdson,1999). We, therefore, expect that the organization of the economic activity of specialists should be, at least partially, self-organized. The aim of this thesis is to bridge studies from computer science and in particular from Peer-to-Peer Networks (P2P) to organization theories. We think that the P2P paradigm well fits with organization problems related to all those situation in which a central authority is not possible. We believe that P2P Networks show a number of characteristics similar to firms working in a knowledge-based economy and hence that the methodology used for studying P2P Networks can be applied to organization studies. Three are the main characteristics we think P2P have in common with firms involved in knowledge economy: - Decentralization: in a pure P2P system every peer is an equal participant, there is no central authority governing the actions of the single peers; - Cost of ownership: P2P computing implies shared ownership reducing the cost of owing the systems and the content, and the cost of maintaining them; - Self-Organization: it refers to the process in a system leading to the emergence of global order within the system without the presence of another system dictating this order. These characteristics are present also in the kind of firm that we try to address and that’ why we have shifted the techniques we adopted for studies in computer science (Marcozzi et al., 2005; Hales et al., 2007 [39]) to management science.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

On land management: landowners' attitudes to land and farming in Valdera, Tuscany

This thesis aims at explaining the intersecting dynamics of structural changes in agriculture and urbanisation, which involves changes in urban-rural relationships. The research questions are: how and why do landowners differ in their attitudes to land and farming? what are the main implications on rural landscapes and the policy implications? Relationships between urbanisation and agriculture are firstly analysed through a critical literature review; the analysis focuses on the 'landowner' as the key actor who actively takes decisions on the rural landscape From the empirical study – which is based on a Tuscan area (Valdera), and addressed through qualitative methods – a great diversity of landowners' attitudes to land and farming emerge, thus contributing to the agricultural restructuring, such as: 1) the emphasis on recreational function of the countryside for urban people 2) contracting out of land management, especially when landowners live or/and have 'urban' employment 3) the active role of hobby farmers in land management 4) agricultural operations simplification and lack of investments (especially in case of property rights expropriation). The thesis is framed in three papers, with the same methods and research questions. It seems evident that rural landscapes is subjected to functional changes (e.g. residential) and structural changes (landscape polarisation), which requires the need 1) to consider that rural landscape management is increasingly less connected to agricultural production as economic activity; 2) to give a coherence to the range of policy interventions (physical planning, landscape, sectoral).

Iva e Pubblica Autorità: coerenza del sistema e dimensioni nazionali

Il sistema comune europeo dell’imposta sul valore aggiunto privilegia caratteri e finalità economiche nel definire chi siano gli operatori economici soggetti all’IVA. Una disciplina particolare è, tuttavia, prevista per i soggetti di diritto pubblico che, oltre alla principale attività istituzionale, esercitano un’attività di carattere economico. Ai sensi dell’articolo 13 della Direttiva del 28 novembre 2006, 2006/112/CE, gli Stati, le Regioni, le Province, i Comuni e gli altri enti di diritto pubblico, in relazione alle attività ed operazioni che essi effettuano in quanto pubbliche autorità, non sono considerati soggetti passivi IVA anche se in relazione ad esse percepiscono diritti, canoni, contributi o retribuzioni. La vigente disciplina europea delle attività economiche esercitate dagli enti pubblici, oltre che inadeguata al contesto economico attuale, rischia di diventare un fattore che influenza negativamente l’efficacia del modello impositivo dell’IVA e l’agire degli enti pubblici. La tesi propone un modello alternativo che prevede l’inversione dell’impostazione attuale della Direttiva IVA al fine di considerare, di regola, soggetti passivi IVA gli organismi pubblici che svolgono - ancorché nella veste di pubblica autorità - attività oggettivamente economiche.

The use of satellite remote sensing for flood risk management

Over the last decades the impact of natural disasters to the global environment is becoming more and more severe. The number of disasters has dramatically increased, as well as the cost to the global economy and the number of people affected. Among the natural disaster, flood catastrophes are considered to be the most costly, devastating, broad extent and frequent, because of the tremendous fatalities, injuries, property damage, economic and social disruption they cause to the humankind. In the last thirty years, the World has suffered from severe flooding and the huge impact of floods has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructures, disruption of economic activity and the loss of property for worth billions of dollars. In this context, satellite remote sensing, along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), has become a key tool in flood risk management analysis. Remote sensing for supporting various aspects of flood risk management was investigated in the present thesis. In particular, the research focused on the use of satellite images for flood mapping and monitoring, damage assessment and risk assessment. The contribution of satellite remote sensing for the delineation of flood prone zones, the identification of damaged areas and the development of hazard maps was explored referring to selected cases of study.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Heterogeneity and time

Although heterogeneity and time are central aspects of economic activity, it was predominantly the Austrian School of economics that emphasized these two aspects. In this paper we argue that the explicit consideration of heterogeneity and time is of increasing importance due to the increasing environmental and resource problems faced by humankind today. It is shown that neo-Austrian capital theory, which revived Austrian ideas employing a formal approach in the 1970s, is not only well suited to address issues of structural change and of accompanying unemployment induced by technical progress but also can be employed for an encompassing ecological-economic analysis demanded by ecological economics. However, complexity, uncertainty, and real ignorance limit the applicability of formal economic analysis. Therefore, we conclude that economic analysis has to be supplemented by considerations of political philosophy. Copyright 2006 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Inc..

Has Deregulation Affected Births, Deaths, and Marriages in the U.S. Commercial Banking Industry?

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminating with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. Banking analysts anticipated dramatic consolidation with large numbers of mergers and acquisitions. Less well documented, but equally important, was the continuing entry of new banks, tempering the decline in the overall number of banking institutions. This paper examines whether deregulation affected bank new-charter (birth), failure (death), and merger (marriage) rates during the 1980s and 1990s after controlling for bank performance and state economic activity. We find evidence that intrastate deregulation stimulated births and marriages, but not deaths. Moreover, we find little evidence that interstate deregulation affected births, deaths, or marriages, except that the marriage rate rose after the implementation of the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act. Finally, pair-wise temporal causality tests among births, deaths, and marriages show that mergers temporally lead new charters and that failures lead mergers (a demonstration effect).

Has Deregulation Affected Births, Deaths, and Marriages in the U.S. Commercial Banking Industry?

Regulatory change not seen since the Great Depression swept the U.S. banking industry beginning in the early 1980s and culminating with the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994. Banking analysts anticipated dramatic consolidation with large numbers of mergers and acquisitions. Less well documented, but equally important, was the continuing entry of new banks, tempering the decline in the overall number of banking institutions. This paper examines whether deregulation affected bank new-charter, failure, and merger rates during the 1980s and 1990s after controlling for bank performance and state economic activity. We find evidence that intrastate deregulation stimulated new charters and mergers, but not failures. Moreover, we find little evidence that interstate deregulation affected new charters, failures, or mergers.

The Relationship between Large Fiscal Adjustments and Short-Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes

A small, but growing, body of literature searches for evidence of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. That is, some evidence exists that large fiscal contractions stimulate short-run economic activity. Our paper continues this research effort by systematically examining the effects, if any, of unusual fiscal events - either non-Keynesian results within a Keynesian model or Keynesian results within a neoclassical model -- on short-run economic activity. We examine this issue within three separate models -- a St. Louis equation, a Hall-type consumption equation, and a growth accounting equation. Our empirical findings are mixed, and do not provide strong systematic support for the view that unusually large fiscal contractions/expansions reverse the effects of normal fiscal events. Moreover, we find only limited evidence that trigger points are empirically important.

Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy affects real economic activity through its affect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy, the classical dichotomy, or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand new Keynesian or new classical theories. Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy affects the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through its affect on total factor productivity, an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply-side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of countercyclical monetary policy as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy in the Great Moderation as well as the more recent rise in productivity growth.

Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist . energy-price and housing-price shocks.

Dieta de verano de bovinos pastoreando en bosques de lenga (Nothofagus pumilio) y mallines de Chubut, Argentina

Se determinó la composición de la dieta de verano de bovinos pastoreando en sistemas formados por bosques de Nothofagus pumilio (lenga) y mallines, del noroeste del Chubut. Se estimó la disponibilidad forrajera de los mallines y del sotobosque mediante cortes de biomasa aérea, y se determinó la composición dietaria mediante análisis microhistológico de heces. La dieta está integrada principalmente por especies de gramíneas y graminoides, que disminuyeron su frecuencia al final del verano, mientras que los renovales de lenga y otras especies leñosas la aumentaron. El ganado selecciona gramíneas en ambos períodos, y al final del verano también los renovales de lenga. La ganadería constituye una importante y creciente forma de subsistencia para los pobladores rurales del noroeste del Chubut. Este trabajo aporta elementos para avanzar en la búsqueda de herramientas que permitan la sustentabilidad de los bosques de lenga.

Tipos de estrategias de obtención de ingresos y pobreza en familias mapuches rurales de Galvarino

Diversos estudios en Latinoamérica relacionan la condición de pobreza de las familias rurales con sus estrategias de obtención de ingresos; al respecto, se ha descrito una mayor presencia de pobres entre asalariados agrícolas que entre agricultores independientes, así como una menor incidencia de la pobreza en familias que han diversificado sus fuentes de ingresos. En Chile, las familias mapuches rurales mantienen índices de pobreza superiores al resto de la población. El menor acceso a activos físicos y capital humano, su localización en zonas de menor dinamismo económico y dificultades de acceso a mercados son algunas causas de esta realidad. El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar las relaciones entre estrategias de ingresos de familias mapuches rurales y las condiciones de pobreza de estas familias; para ello se construye una tipología de familias con el método de conglomerados. Los resultados arrojan tres tipos de estrategias: venta de mano de obra, dependencia y actividad silvoagropecuaria, que representan 54,5%, 26,2% y 19,3% de las familias, respectivamente. No se observan diferencias en la distribución de las familias pobres y no pobres por tipo de estrategia y, a pesar de la importancia de los ingresos extraprediales, las actividades por cuenta propia aún realizan un aporte relevante a los ingresos de estas familias.

Difusión de ámbitos privilegiados de acumulación en la historia argentina reciente. Intervención económica estatal y comportamiento empresario, 1966-1989

Una mirada atenta sobre la historia argentina reciente muestra con claridad la conjunción de tres fenómenos relacionados: la persistente dificultad para construir un patrón de desarrollo sostenido, el progresivo deterioro de las capacidades y de los niveles de autonomía relativa del Estado y, finalmente, la consolidación de un reducido grupo de grandes empresas. A partir de esta observación, se propone analizar la articulación entre intervención estatal, comportamiento empresario y difusión de ámbitos privilegiados de acumulación, y establecer las consecuencias que la misma generó sobre el perfil y desempeño de las diversas fracciones que componen la cúpula empresaria, entre 1966 y 1989. Dos hipótesis orientan la indagación: 1) la intervención económica estatal y las prácticas empresarias favorecieron la difusión de diversos ámbitos privilegiados de acumulación, y 2) la difusión de los ámbitos permitió la consolidación de una fracción empresaria estrechamente vinculada al funcionamiento del complejo económico estatal-privado.