Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Multimodal Strategies in Development.Predictive Value of early simultaneosgesture-speech comination

The present study investigates the predictive value of the early appearance of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations. An experimental task was used to obtain a communicative productive sample from nineteen children at 1;0 and 1;3. Infant’s communicative productions, in combination with gaze joint engagement patterns, were analyzed in relation to different social conditions. The results show a significant effect of age and social condition on infants’ communicative productions. Gesture-speech combinations seem to work as a strong communicative resource to attract the adult’s attention in social demanding communicative contexts. Gaze joint engagement was used in combination with simultaneous pointing-speech combinations to attract adults’ attention during social demanding conditions. Finally, the use of simultaneous pointing-speech combinations at 1;0 in demanding conditions predicted greater expressive vocabulary acquisition at 1;3 and 1;6. These results indicate that the use of gesture-speech combinations may be considered a significant step towards the early integration of language components.

Predictive Value of Readiness, Importance, and Confidence in Ability to Change Drinking and Smoking

Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR + PR + SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

Use of hand-to-hand impedancemetry to predict body composition of African women as measured by air displacement plethysmography.

OBJECTIVES: To test the validity of a simple, rapid, field-adapted, portable hand-held impedancemeter (HHI) for the estimation of lean body mass (LBM) and percentage body fat (%BF) in African women, and to develop specific predictive equations. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study. SETTINGS: Dakar, the capital city of Senegal, West Africa. SUBJECTS: A total sample of 146 women volunteered. Their mean age was of 31.0 y (s.d. 9.1), weight 60.9 kg (s.d. 13.1) and BMI 22.6 kg/m(2) (s.d. 4.5). METHODS: Body composition values estimated by HHI were compared to those measured by whole body densitometry performed by air displacement plethysmography (ADP). The specific density of LBM in black subjects was taken into account for the calculation of %BF from body density. RESULTS: : Estimations from HHI showed a large bias (mean difference) of 5.6 kg LBM (P<10(-4)) and -8.8 %BF (P<10(-4)) and errors (s.d. of the bias) of 2.6 kg LBM and 3.7 %BF. In order to correct for the bias, specific predictive equations were developed. With the HHI result as a single predictor, error values were of 1.9 kg LBM and 3.7 %BF in the prediction group (n=100), and of 2.2 kg LBM and 3.6 %BF in the cross-validation group (n=46). Addition of anthropometrical predictors was not necessary. CONCLUSIONS: The HHI analyser significantly overestimated LBM and underestimated %BF in African women. After correction for the bias, the body compartments could easily be estimated in African women by using the HHI result in an appropriate prediction equation with a good precision. It remains to be seen whether a combination of arm and leg impedancemetry in order to take into account lower limbs would further improve the prediction of body composition in Africans.

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

The use of COOP/WONCA charts as a screen for mental disorders in the immigrant community in primary care in primary care

Aim. To evaluate the usefulness of COOP/WONCA charts as a screening tool for mental disorders in primary care in the immigrant healthcare users in Salt. To measure self-rated health of Salt immigration population using the COOP / WONCA charts and to assess its associated factorsDesign. Descriptive and transversal studyParticipants. 370 non-EU immigrants seniors selected by consecutive sampling stratified by sexMain measures. Personal information will be collected (age, sex, country of origin, years of residency in Spain, number of people living in the household and associated comorbidities). Each participant will complete the COOP/WONCA charts. An analysis of the validity of the diagnostic test will be done: sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, ROC curve and area under the curve (AUC). All variables will be subjected to descriptive analysis. Bivariate and multivariate analysis between the variables collected (sex, years of residency in Spain... ) and the results of COOP / WONCA charts will be performedResults. Preliminary results are available on a pilot test with 30 patients. The mental disorder prevalence is around 30%. Sensibility (0,89), specificity (0,89), VPP (0,80), VPN (0,94) cutoff score (3.5) and AUC (0,941). Women, people with 10 or more years of residency in Spain and unemployed people have worse self-rated healthConclusions. Based on the preliminary results, is possible to conclude that COOP/WONCA charts could be an useful, valid and applicable screening test for mental disorders in primary care with immigrant population

The validity of clinical diagnoses of dementia in a group of consecutively autopsied memory clinic patients.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies show that up to 10% of individuals aged 65 years and older suffer from dementia, most commonly from dementia of the Alzheimer Type (DAT) (1). Clinicopathological studies are critical to our understanding of this disease and improving the accuracy of clinical diagnoses. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to examine the validity of clinical diagnoses of DAT, to determine the prevalence of different forms of dementia in this sample, and to investigate the relationship between age at death and polymorbidity. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Clinical data were available from 221 patients who had been examined at the Basel Memory Clinic between 1986 and 1996. From this population, 34% (75 patients) were autopsied in the Department of Pathology, University Hospital Basel, and neuropathological examinations were additionally performed on 62 (83%) of these patients. Clinical and neuropathological data were retrospectively compared. RESULTS: 67.8% of the neuropathologically examined patients received a definitive diagnosis of AD (Alzheimer's disease), vascular dementia (VaD) or mixed dementia (AD and VaD). AD alone or with other histopathological hallmarks of dementia was the most prevalent neuropathological diagnosis (63%). VaD was deemed the only cause of dementia in only 4.8% of patients. The sensitivity for DAT was 75.9%, the specificity 60.6%. Increasing age was associated with an increasing number of clinical and neuropathological diagnoses. CONCLUSION: The sensitivity and specificity of the clinical diagnoses of DAT found in our study are similar to previous reports (2-5). Older patients had more etiologies of their dementia than younger patients. This study reaffirms the need for internationally accepted criteria for clinical and neuropathological diagnoses, as well as further clinical-neuropathological investigations to further refine the clinical diagnostic process.

Suspicion d'hémorragie sous-arachnoïdienne: place d'un score prédictif dans la stratégie diagnostique actuelle [Usefulness of a predictive score in subarachnoid hemorrhage diagnosis].

Usefulness of a predictive score in subarachnoid hemorrhage diagnosis Nearly half of the patients with non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) present with no neurological signs, inducing clinical underestimation of the gravity of their affection. As the outcome of aneurismal SAH is highly dependant on the initial neurological status and the recurrence of untreated hemorrhagic events, these neurologically intact patients stand to suffer the most from delayed diagnosis. Although there is currently no validated predictive score that reliably identifies SAH-induced headache, a combination of clinical criteria derived from a cohort of sudden-onset headache patients should allow risk stratification and identification of those patients requiring further investigation.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Predictive models for nanotoxicology: current challenges and future opportunities.

Characterizing the risks posed by nanomaterials is extraordinarily complex because these materials can have a wide range of sizes, shapes, chemical compositions and surface modifications, all of which may affect toxicity. There is an urgent need for a testing strategy that can rapidly and efficiently provide a screening approach for evaluating the potential hazard of nanomaterials and inform the prioritization of additional toxicological testing where necessary. Predictive toxicity models could form an integral component of such an approach by predicting which nanomaterials, as a result of their physico-chemical characteristics, have potentially hazardous properties. Strategies for directing research towards predictive models and the ancillary benefits of such research are presented here.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.