Echocardiographic Assessment of the Pulmonary Venous Flow: An Indicator of Increased Pulmonary Flow in Congenital Cardiac Malformations

OBJECTIVE: To identify the left inferior pulmonary vein as an indirect marker of increased pulmonary flow in congenital heart diseases.METHODS: We carried out a prospective consecutive study on 40 patients divided into 2 groups as follows: G1 - 20 patients diagnosed with congenital heart disease and increased pulmonary flow; G2 (control group) - 20 patients who were either healthy or had congenital heart disease with decreased or normal pulmonary flow. We obtained the velocity-time integral of the left inferior pulmonary vein flow, excluding the "reverse A" wave, with pulsed Doppler echocardiography.RESULTS: In G1, 19 out of the 20 patients had well-identified dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein. No G2 patient had dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein. Dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein in conditions of increased pulmonary flow had sensitivity of 95%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 95% (1 false-negative case). The integral of time and velocity of the pulmonary venous flow obtained with pulsed Doppler echocardiography was greater in the G1 patients (G1=25.0±4.6 cm versus G2=14.8±2.1 cm, p=0.0001).CONCLUSION: The identification of dilation of the left inferior pulmonary vein suggests the presence of congenital heart disease with increased pulmonary flow. This may be used as an indirect sign of increased flow, mainly in malformations of difficult diagnosis, such as atrial septal defects of the venous sinus or coronary sinus type.

The Role of B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in the Diagnosis of Congestive Heart Failure in Patients Presenting to an Emergency Department with Dyspnea

OBJECTIVE: To determine the utility of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in the diagnosis of congestive heart failure (CHF) in patients presenting with dyspnea to an emergency department (ED). METHODS: Seventy patients presenting with dyspnea to an ED from April to July 2001 were included in the study. Mean age was 72±16 years and 33 (47%) were male. BNP was measured in all patients at the moment of admission to the ED. Emergency-care physicians, blinded to BNP values, were required to assign a probable initial diagnosis. A cardiologist retrospectively reviewed the data (blinded to BNP measurements) and assigned a definite diagnosis, which was considered the gold standard for assessing the diagnostic performance of BNP. RESULTS: The mean BNP concentration was higher in patients with CHF (n=36) than in those with other diagnoses (990±550 vs 80±67 pg/mL, p<0.0001). Patients with systolic dysfunction had higher BNP levels than those with preserved systolic function (1,180±641 vs 753±437 pg/mL, p=0.03). At a blood concentration of 200 pg/mL, BNP showed a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 97.1%, positive predictive value of 97.3%, and negative predictive value of 100%. The application of BNP could have potentially corrected all 16 cases in which the diagnosis was missed by the emergency department physician. CONCLUSION: BNP measurement is a useful tool in the diagnosis of CHF in patients presenting to the ED with dyspnea.

Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and of severe perioperative complications in myocardial revascularization surgery

OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

Population dynamics of 0-group flounder (Platichthys flesus L.) in Galway Bay, West of Ireland and the value of flounder from shore angling tourism in Ireland

The economic value of flounder from shore angling around Ireland was assessed. Flounder catches from shore angling tournaments around Ireland were related to domestic and overseas shore angling expenditure in order to determine an economic value for the species. Temporal trends in flounder angling catches, and specimen (trophy) flounder reports were also investigated. Flounder was found to be the most caught shore angling species in competitions around Ireland constituting roughly one third of the shore angling competition catch although this did vary by area. The total value of flounder from shore angling tourism was estimated to be of the order of €8.4 million. No significant temporal trends in flounder angling catches and specimen reports were found. Thus there is no evidence from the current study for any decline in flounder stocks. The population dynamics of 0-group flounder during the early benthic stage was investigated at estuarine sites in Galway Bay, west of Ireland. Information was analysed from the March to June sampling period over five years (2002 to 2006). Spatial and temporal variations in settlement and population length structure were analysed between beach and river habitats and sites. Settlement of flounder began from late March to early May of each year, most commonly in April. Peak settlement was usually in April or early May. Settlement was recorded earlier than elsewhere, although most commonly was similar to the southern part of the UK and northern France. Settlement was generally later in tidal rivers than on sandy beaches. Abundance of 0-group flounder in Galway Bay did not exhibit significant inter -annual variability. 0-group flounder were observed in dense aggregations of up to 105 m'2, which were patchy in distribution. Highest densities of 0-group flounder were recorded in limnetic and oligohaline areas as compared with the lower densities in polyhaline and to a lesser extent mesohaline areas. Measurements to of salinity allowed the classification of beaches, and tidal river sections near the mouth, into a salinity based scheme for length comparisons. Beaches were classified as polyhaline,the lower section of rivers as mesohaline, and the middle and upper sections as oligohaline. Over the March to June sampling period 0-group flounder utilised different sections at different length ranges and were significantly larger in more upstream sections. During initial settlement in April, 0-group flounder of 8-10 mm (standard length, SL) were present in abundance on polyhaline sandy beaches. By about 10mm (SL), flounder were present in all polyhaline, mesohaline and (oligohaline) sections. 0-group flounder became absent or in insignificant numbers in polyhaline and mesohaline sections in a matter of weeks after first appearance. From April to June, 0-group flounder of 12-30mm (SL) were found in more upstream locations in the oligohaline sections. About one month (May or June) after initial settlement, 0-group flounder became absent from the oligohaline sections. Concurrently, flounder start to reappear in mesohaline and polyhaline areas at approximately 30mm (SL) in June. The results indicate 0-group flounder in the early benthic stage are associated with low salinity areas, but as they grow, this association diminishes. Results strongly suggest that migration of 0-group flounder between habitats takes place during the early benthic phase.

Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective: Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods: We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) in relation to hospital death. Results: The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively), as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively). Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98), similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99) - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92), well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08). This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively), differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%), which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Conclusion: Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles.

Value of the Qrs-T Angle in Predicting the Induction of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias in Patients with Chagas Disease

Background:The QRS-T angle correlates with prognosis in patients with heart failure and coronary artery disease, reflected by an increase in mortality proportional to an increase in the difference between the axes of the QRS complex and T wave in the frontal plane. The value of this correlation in patients with Chagas heart disease is currently unknown.Objective:Determine the correlation of the QRS-T angle and the risk of induction of ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation (VT / VF) during electrophysiological study (EPS) in patients with Chagas disease.Methods:Case-control study at a tertiary center. Patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS were used as controls. The QRS-T angle was categorized as normal (0-105º), borderline (105-135º) or abnormal (135-180º). Differences between groups for continuous variables were analyzed with the t test or Mann-Whitney test, and for categorical variables with Fisher's exact test. P values < 0.05 were considered significant.Results:Of 116 patients undergoing EPS, 37.9% were excluded due to incomplete information / inactive records or due to the impossibility to correctly calculate the QRS-T angle (presence of left bundle branch block and atrial fibrillation). Of 72 patients included in the study, 31 induced VT / VF on EPS. Of these, the QRS-T angle was normal in 41.9%, borderline in 12.9% and abnormal in 45.2%. Among patients without induction of VT / VF on EPS, the QRS-T angle was normal in 63.4%, borderline in 14.6% and abnormal in 17.1% (p = 0.04). When compared with patients with normal QRS-T angle, those with abnormal angle had a fourfold higher risk of inducing ventricular tachycardia / ventricular fibrillation on EPS [odds ratio (OR) 4; confidence interval (CI) 1.298-12.325; p = 0.028]. After adjustment for other variables such as age, ejection fraction (EF) and QRS size, there was a trend for the abnormal QRS-T angle to identify patients with increased risk of inducing VT / VF during EPS (OR 3.95; CI 0.99-15.82; p = 0.052). The EF also emerged as a predictor of induction of VT / VF: for each point increase in EF, there was a 4% reduction in the rate of sustained ventricular arrhythmia on EPS.Conclusions:Changes in the QRS-T angle and decreases in EF were associated with an increased risk of induction of VT / VF on EPS.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio are Predictors of Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are inflammatory markers used as prognostic factors in various diseases. The aims of this study were to compare the PLR and the NLR of heart failure (HF) patients with those of age-sex matched controls, to evaluate the predictive value of those markers in detecting HF, and to demonstrate the effect of NLR and PLR on mortality in HF patients during follow-up. Methods: This study included 56 HF patients and 40 controls without HF. All subjects underwent transthoracic echocardiography to evaluate cardiac functions. The NLR and the PLR were calculated as the ratio of neutrophil count to lymphocyte count and as the ratio of platelet count to lymphocyte count, respectively. All HF patients were followed after their discharge from the hospital to evaluate mortality, cerebrovascular events, and re-hospitalization. Results: The NLR and the PLR of HF patients were significantly higher compared to those of the controls (p < 0.01). There was an inverse correlation between the NLR and the left ventricular ejection fraction of the study population (r: -0.409, p < 0.001). The best cut-off value of NLR to predict HF was 3.0, with 86.3% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity, and the best cut-off value of PLR to predict HF was 137.3, with 70% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Only NLR was an independent predictor of mortality in HF patients. A cut-off value of 5.1 for NLR can predict death in HF patients with 75% sensitivity and 62% specificity during a 12.8-month follow-up period on average. Conclusion: NLR and PLR were higher in HF patients than in age-sex matched controls. However, NLR and PLR were not sufficient to establish a diagnosis of HF. NLR can be used to predict mortality during the follow-up of HF patients.

Prognostic Value of Pulmonary Vascular Resistance by Magnetic Resonance in Systolic Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure. However, non-invasive diagnosis is still challenging in clinical practice. Objective: We sought to assess the prognostic utility of non-invasive estimation of pulmonary vascular resistances (PVR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: Prospective registry of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% and recently admitted for decompensated heart failure during three years. PVRwere calculated based on right ventricular ejection fraction and average velocity of the pulmonary artery estimated during cardiac magnetic resonance. Readmission for heart failure and all-cause mortality were considered as adverse events at follow-up. Results: 105 patients (average LVEF 26.0 ±7.7%, ischemic etiology 43%) were included. Patients with adverse events at long-term follow-up had higher values of PVR (6.93 ± 1.9 vs. 4.6 ± 1.7estimated Wood Units (eWu), p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, PVR ≥ 5 eWu(cutoff value according to ROC curve) was independently associated with increased risk of adverse events at 9 months follow-up (HR2.98; 95% CI 1.12-7.88; p < 0.03). Conclusions: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of PVR ≥ 5.0 Wu is associated with significantly worse clinical outcome at follow-up. Non-invasive estimation of PVR by cardiac magnetic resonance might be useful for risk stratification in HFrEF, irrespective of etiology, presence of late gadolinium enhancement or LVEF.

3-T direct MR arthrography of the wrist: value of finger trap distraction to assess intrinsic ligament and triangular fibrocartilage complex tears.

PURPOSE: To determine the value of applying finger trap distraction during direct MR arthrography of the wrist to assess intrinsic ligament and triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) tears. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients were prospectively investigated by three-compartment wrist MR arthrography. Imaging was performed with 3-T scanners using a three-dimensional isotropic (0.4 mm) T1-weighted gradient-recalled echo sequence, with and without finger trap distraction (4 kg). In a blind and independent fashion, two musculoskeletal radiologists measured the width of the scapholunate (SL), lunotriquetral (LT) and ulna-TFC (UTFC) joint spaces. They evaluated the amount of contrast medium within these spaces using a four-point scale, and assessed SL, LT and TFCC tears, as well as the disruption of Gilula's carpal arcs. RESULTS: With finger trap distraction, both readers found a significant increase in width of the SL space (mean Δ = +0.1mm, p ≤ 0.040), and noticed more contrast medium therein (p ≤ 0.035). In contrast, the differences in width of the LT (mean Δ = +0.1 mm, p ≥ 0.057) and UTFC (mean Δ = 0mm, p ≥ 0.728) spaces, as well as the amount of contrast material within these spaces were not statistically significant (p = 0.607 and ≥ 0.157, respectively). Both readers detected more SL (Δ = +1, p = 0.157) and LT (Δ = +2, p = 0.223) tears, although statistical significance was not reached, and Gilula's carpal arcs were more frequently disrupted during finger trap distraction (Δ = +5, p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: The application of finger trap distraction during direct wrist MR arthrography may enhance both detection and characterisation of SL and LT ligament tears by widening the SL space and increasing the amount of contrast within the SL and LT joint spaces.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 1)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 2)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS), which allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Work Hours, Social Value of Leisure and Globalisation

We examine how openness interacts with the coordination of consumption-leisure decisions in determining the equilibrium working hours and wage rate when there are leisure externalities (e.g., due to social interactions). The latter are modelled by allowing a worker’s marginal utility of leisure to be increasing in the leisure time taken by other workers. Coordination takes the form of internalising the leisure externality and other relevant constraints (e.g., labour demand). The extent of openness is measured by the degree of capital mobility. We find that: coordination lowers equilibrium work hours and raises the wage rate; there is a U-shaped (inverse-U-shaped) relationship between work hours (wages) and the degree of coordination; coordination is welfare improving; and, the gap between the coordinated and uncoordinated work hours (and the corresponding wage rates) is affected by the extent and nature of openness.