Predictive ability of an early diagnostic guess in patients presenting with chest pain; a longitudinal descriptive study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The intuitive early diagnostic guess could play an important role in reaching a final diagnosis. However, no study to date has attempted to quantify the importance of general practitioners' (GPs) ability to correctly appraise the origin of chest pain within the first minutes of an encounter. METHODS: The validation study was nested in a multicentre cohort study with a one year follow-up and included 626 successive patients who presented with chest pain and were attended by 58 GPs in Western Switzerland. The early diagnostic guess was assessed prior to a patient's history being taken by a GP and was then compared to a diagnosis of chest pain observed over the next year. RESULTS: Using summary measures clustered at the GP's level, the early diagnostic guess was confirmed by further investigation in 51.0% (CI 95%; 49.4% to 52.5%) of patients presenting with chest pain. The early diagnostic guess was more accurate in patients with a life threatening illness (65.4%; CI 95% 64.5% to 66.3%) and in patients who did not feel anxious (62.9%; CI 95% 62.5% to 63.3%). The predictive abilities of an early diagnostic guess were consistent among GPs. CONCLUSIONS: The GPs early diagnostic guess was correct in one out of two patients presenting with chest pain. The probability of a correct guess was higher in patients with a life-threatening illness and in patients not feeling anxious about their pain.

Rapid detection of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis using the malachite green decolourisation assay

Early detection of drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates allows for earlier and more effective treatment of patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of the malachite green decolourisation assay (MGDA) in detecting isoniazid (INH) and rifampicin (RIF) resistance in M. tuberculosis clinical isolates. Fifty M. tuberculosis isolates, including 19 multidrug-resistant, eight INH-resistant and 23 INH and RIF-susceptible samples, were tested. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and agreement of the assay for INH were 92.5%, 91.3%, 92.5%, 91.3% and 92%, respectively. Similarly, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and agreement of the assay for RIF were 94.7%, 100%, 100%, 96.8% and 98%, respectively. There was a major discrepancy in the tests of two isolates, as they were sensitive to INH by the MGDA test, but resistant by the reference method. There was a minor discrepancy in the tests of two additional isolates, as they were sensitive to INH by the reference method, but resistant by the MGDA test. The drug susceptibility test results were obtained within eight-nine days. In conclusion, the MGDA test is a reliable and accurate method for the rapid detection of INH and RIF resistance compared with the reference method and the MGDA test additionally requires less time to obtain results.

The predictive value of psychological assessment of candidates for gastric bypass: A medical chart review

Background and Objectives: Guidelines for bariatric surgery demand a psychological evaluation of applicants. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the presence of "psychological risk factors" predicts postoperative weight loss after gastric bypass. Methods: Medical records of obese women who underwent bariatric surgery between 2000 and 2004 were reviewed. Psychological assessment consisted of a one-hour semi-structured interview, summarized in a written report. Anthropometric assessment at baseline and 6,12,18 and 24 months after surgery included body weight, height and body mass index. Results: The mean BMI of included patients (N = 92) was 46.2 + 6,3 kg/m(2) (range 38.4-69.7). Based on the psychological assessment, 27% (N = 25) of the patients were classified as having "psychological risk factors" and 28% (N = 26) were diagnosed with a psychiatric diagnosis, most often major depression. Two years after gastric bypass, 16% of patients with "psychological risk factors" achieved an excellent result (%EWL > 75) versus 39% of those without (p < 0.05). About 1 out of 4 patients was in postoperative psychiatric treatment, but only half of them were identified as having "psychological risk factors" at baseline. Weight loss of patients initiating a psychiatric treatment only after surgery was less than of patients who continued psychiatric treatment already initiated before surgery (55.7 + 14.8 versus 66.5 + 14.2 %EWL). Conclusions: A single semi-structured psychological interview may identify patients who are at risk for diminished postoperative weight loss; however, psychological assessment did not identify those patients who were in need of a psychiatric postoperative treatment.

Evaluation of three automated systems for susceptibility testing of enterobacteria containing qnrB, qnrS, and/or aac(6')-Ib-cr.

The accuracy of the MicroScan WalkAway, BD Phoenix, and Vitek-2 systems for susceptibility testing of quinolones and aminoglycosides against 68 enterobacteria containing qnrB, qnrS, and/or aac(6 ')-Ib-cr was evaluated using reference microdilution. Overall, one very major error (0.09%), 6 major errors (0.52%), and 45 minor errors (3.89%) were noted.

Is intra-operative blood fllow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula ?

Rapport de Synthèse : Introduction : Depuis plus de 50 ans, les fistules artérioveineuses radiocéphaliques (FAV) restent le meilleur accès d'hémodialyse en termes de perméabilité et de complications. Néanmoins, l'échec précoce dû aux thromboses ou à la non maturation entraîne leur abandon chez un nombre significatif de patients. Cette étude prospective est destinée à investiguer la mesure peropératoire du débit sanguin dans les FAV comme valeur prédictive d'échec précoce. Méthode : Nous avons sélectionné des patients nécessitant la confection d'une FAV pour hémodialyse en se basant sur le repérage veineux effectué par ultrason dans la période préopératoire. La mesure du débit sanguin dans la FAV a été réalisée systématiquement après la réalisation de l'anastomose en utilisant une sonde mesurant le temps de transit des globules rouges. Durant le suivi, le débit a été estimé par ultrason à des intervalles réguliers. Résultats : Nous avons réalisés 58 FAV chez 58 patients avec un suivi moyen de 30 jours. La thrombose et non maturation a été observée chez 8 patients (14%) et 4 patients (7%) respectivement. La valeur de débit peropératoire des fistules sans échec précoce était significativement plus élevée que dans les fistules avec échec précoce (230 v. 98 mL/min ; Ρ = 0.007), tout comme à une semaine (753 vs 228 mL/min ; P=0.0008) et 4 semaines (915 vs 245 mL/min, P<0.0001j. La mesure du débit avec une valeur seuil à 120 mL/min présente une sensibilité de 67%, une spécificité de 75% et une valeur prédictive positive de 91%. Conclusions : Un débit sanguin < 120mL/min a une bonne valeur prédictive positive d'échec précoce dans les FAV. Durant la procédure, cette valeur seuil, doit être utilisée pour sélectionner de manière appropriée les FAV nécessitant durant la même intervention une correction immédiate afin d'améliorer le débit. Une étude consécutive devra investiguer les origines des débits faibles des FAV objectivés durant leur confection.

Field testing of arsenic in groundwater samples of Bangladesh using a test kit based on lyophilized bioreporter bacteria.

A test kit based on living, lyophilized bacterial bioreporters emitting bioluminescence as a response to arsenite and arsenate was applied during a field campaign in six villages across Bangladesh. Bioreporter field measurements of arsenic in groundwater from tube wells were in satisfying agreement with the results of spectroscopic analyses of the same samples conducted in the lab. The practicability of the bioreporter test in terms of logistics and material requirements, suitability for high sample throughput, and waste disposal was much better than that of two commercial chemical test kits that were included as references. The campaigns furthermore demonstrated large local heterogeneity of arsenic in groundwater, underscoring the use of well switching as an effective remedy to avoid high arsenic exposure.

Impaired left ventricular function as a predictive factor for mid-term survival in octogenarians after primary coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: The impact of preoperative impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in octogenarians following coronary bypass surgery on short-term survival was evaluated in this study. METHODS: A total of 147 octogenarians (mean age 82.1 ± 1.9 years) with coronary artery diseases underwent elective coronary artery bypass graft between January 2000 and December 2009. Patients were stratified into: Group I (n = 59) with EF >50%, Group II (n = 59) with 50% > EF >30% and in Group III (n = 29) with 30% > EF. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three groups regarding incidence of COPD, renal failure, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and preoperative cerebrovascular events. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was the sole independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 18.1); this was 8.5% in Group I, 15.3% in Group II and 10.3% in Group III. Independent predictive factors for mortality during follow up were: decrease of EF during follow-up for more that 5% (OR, 5.2), usage of left internal mammary artery as free graft (OR, 18.1), and EF in follow-up lower than 40% (OR, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein suggest acceptable in-hospital as well short-term mortality in octogenarians with impaired EF following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and are comparable to recent literature where the mortality of younger patients was up to 15% and short-term mortality up to 40%, respectively. Accordingly, we can also state that in an octogenarian cohort with impaired EF, CABG is a viable treatment with acceptable mortality.

Predictive value of anti-neutrophil cygtoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) in small vessel vasculitis

Résumé Valeur prédictive des anticorps dirigés contre le cytoplasme des neutrophiles (ANCA) dans les vasculites des vaisseaux de petit calibre But du travail : Les vasculites sont des pathologies le plus souvent sévères et parfois létales ; elles nécessitent une reconnaissance et un traitement précoces. Il est donc utile de pouvoir disposer de marqueurs diagnostiques, et éventuellement de marqueurs qui puissent prédire l'activité de la maladie. Les « antineutrophil cytoplasm antibodies » (ANCA) constituent une famille d'autoanticorps dirigés contre des antigènes du cytoplasme des neutrophiles, cellules clés du processus inflammatoire au cours des vasculites. De nombreuses études ont tenté de préciser l'utilité des ANCA dans le diagnostic et le suivi des vasculites avec des résultats contradictoires. Le but de ce travail a été de passer en revue l'évolution clinique des patients suivis dans notre service pour une vasculite à ANCA et évaluer la valeur prédictive des ANCA comme marqueur de récidive. Méthode: Les dossiers médicaux de 36 patients, suivis à notre consultation ambulatoire d'immunologie et allergie du CHUV pour une vasculite à ANCA entre janvier 1990 et décembre 2001, ont été analysés de manière rétrospective afin d'établir une base de données. Les données démographiques, le type de vasculite (granulomatose de Wegener ou polyangéite microscopique) et ses caractéristiques (organes touchés), les traitements reçus, les dosages des ANCA (par immunofluorescence et par ELISA avec détermination des anti-PR3 et/ou anti-MPO), et l'évolution clinique (récidive/rémission) ont été considérés. La valeur pronostique des ANCA dans notre population a été calculée utilisant les valeurs prédictives positive et négative, la likelihood et les odds ratios. La valeur statistique a été examinée par les tests Chi-square test ou Fisher's exact test (valeur significative définie comme p <0.05) à l'aide du programme GraphPad Instat software version 3, San Diego, CA. Résultats : Vingt-trois patients atteints d'une maladie de Wegener et treize d'une polyangéite microscopique ont été suivis pour une durée médiane de cinq ans (entre 1 mois et 16 ans). La plupart des patients ont été traités avec des corticostéroïdes associés à du cyclophosphamide. Une rémission a été obtenue chez 21 patients (91 %) atteints d'une maladie de Wegener, mais 74% ont présenté par la suite une récidive. Tous les patients atteints d'une polyangéite microscopique sont entrés en rémission et 33% ont par la suite récidivé. Une élévation persistante (définie comme supérieure à 6 mois) des ANCA ne s'est pas révélée associée à un risque statistiquement significatif de récidive (p=0.14). En revanche, une élévation soudaine du taux des ANCA s'est démontrée prédictive d'une récidive (table 3). Conclusion : Durant le suivi de certaines vasculites, comme la granulomatose de Wegener et la polyangéite microscopique une élévation des ANCA doit faire redouter une exacerbation de la maladie et, par conséquent, justifie une surveillance accrue.

Decreased well-being after job loss : testing omitted causes

Job loss is widely known to lead to a substantial decrease in workers' subjective well-being. Functionalist theories explain this fact by arguing that the fundamental needs that work fulfills are absent during unemployment. Recent evidence from longitudinal studies however contradicts this approach, showing that workers who find a new job do not fully regain their former level of well-being upon reemployment. Therefore other mechanisms must be at work. We suggest that changes in social or economic domains of workers' lives - triggered by job displacement - lead to the observed changes in well-being. Drawing on a unique data set from a survey of workers displaced by plant closure in Switzerland after the financial crisis of 2008, our analysis confirms the previous result that finding a job after displacement does not completely restore workers' pre-displacement level of well-being. The factors that best explain this outcome are changes in social domains, notably changes in workers' job - related social status and their relationships to friends. This result provides valuable insights about the long lasting scars job displacement leaves on workers' lives.

Molecular testing for fragile X: analysis of 5062 tests from 1105 fragile X families--performed in 12 clinical laboratories in Spain.

Fragile X syndrome is the most common inherited form of intellectual disability. Here we report on a study based on a collaborative registry, involving 12 Spanish centres, of molecular diagnostic tests in 1105 fragile X families comprising 5062 individuals, of whom, 1655 carried a full mutation or were mosaic, three cases had deletions, 1840 had a premutation, and 102 had intermediate alleles. Two patients with the full mutation also had Klinefelter syndrome. We have used this registry to assess the risk of expansion from parents to children. From mothers with premutation, the overall rate of allele expansion to full mutation is 52.5%, and we found that this rate is higher for male than female offspring (63.6% versus 45.6%; P < 0.001). Furthermore, in mothers with intermediate alleles (45-54 repeats), there were 10 cases of expansion to a premutation allele, and for the smallest premutation alleles (55-59 repeats), there was a 6.4% risk of expansion to a full mutation, with 56 repeats being the smallest allele that expanded to a full mutation allele in a single meiosis. Hence, in our series the risk for alleles of <59 repeats is somewhat higher than in other published series. These findings are important for genetic counselling.

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers in resected colon cancer: current status and future perspectives for integrating genomics into biomarker discovery.

The number of agents that are potentially effective in the adjuvant treatment of locally advanced resectable colon cancer is increasing. Consequently, it is important to ascertain which subgroups of patients will benefit from a specific treatment. Despite more than two decades of research into the molecular genetics of colon cancer, there is a lack of prognostic and predictive molecular biomarkers with proven utility in this setting. A secondary objective of the Pan European Trials in Adjuvant Colon Cancer-3 trial, which compared irinotecan in combination with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in the postoperative treatment of stage III and stage II colon cancer patients, was to undertake a translational research study to assess a panel of putative prognostic and predictive markers in a large colon cancer patient cohort. The Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 trial, in a similar design, also investigated the use of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in this setting. In this article, the authors, who are coinvestigators from these trials and performed similar investigations of biomarker discovery in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer, review the current status of biomarker research in this field, drawing on their experiences and considering future strategies for biomarker discovery in the postgenomic era.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

Apport de la psychanalyse en oncogénétique prédictive

La médecine prédictive évalue la probabilité que des personnes portant des mutations génétiques constitutionnelles puissent développer une maladie donnée, comme par exemple une tumeur maligne (oncogénétique). Dans le cas des prédispositions génétiques au cancer, des mesures particulières de surveillance et de prévention sont discutées en fonction de l'évaluation des risques et des résultats de l'analyse génétique, y compris certains traitements préventifs allant, à l'extrême, jusqu'à l'intervention chirurgicale prophylactique (ex : mastectomie et/ou ovariectomie). Cette étude est basée sur une interprétation psychanalytique du récit de sujets ayant entrepris une démarche en oncogénétique et vise à analyser l'impact psychique : a) du résultat de l'analyse génétique et b) de la construction de l'arbre généalogique. Elle a été conduite dans l'Unité d'oncogénétique et de prévention des cancers (UOPC) du Service d'oncologie des Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève (HUG). L'UOPC assure des consultations de conseil génétique spécialisé pour les personnes ayant des antécédents personnels et/ou familiaux de maladies tumorales suggestifs de l'existence de prédispositions génétiques au cancer. La population de cette étude comprend 125 sujets suivis lors des différentes étapes du dépistage, pour un total de 289 consultations et 50 entretiens individuels. Cette recherche montre que les sujets asymptomatiques réélaborent de façon personnelle, soit le résultat génétique (négatif ou positif), soit l'acte de prédiction. En revanche, ceux qui ont développé un cancer expriment des sentiments d'angoisse, comme s'ils subissaient les effets d'un destin inéluctable qui s'est effectivement réalisé. Par ailleurs, l'arbre généalogique est réinterprété de façon personnelle, laissant apparaître des aspects refoulés ou niés qui peuvent resurgir. Lorsque d'autres membres de la famille sont sollicités pour préciser les liens génétiques et/ou être soumis en première intention à l'analyse génétique, le sujet exprime sa difficulté de dépendre d'autres personnes pour connaître son propre statut biologique. D'une façon générale, on constate que là où la médecine prédictive réalise son acte de prévision, le sujet répond de façon imprévisible. Dans l'optique de la psychanalyse, cette imprévisibilité est liée aux aspects du « désir inconscient ». Cette étude montre aussi qu'on ne peut pas considérer le dépistage génétique comme étant la cause directe du traumatisme. L'effort doit porter sur le fait que le sujet puisse se réapproprier ce qui lui arrive, et exprimer progressivement sa souffrance spécifique en jeu dans le processus de prédiction pour créer un écart entre la vérité médicale et la sienne. L'espace de la parole devient ainsi le lieu d'un travail privilégié. La psychanalyse opère donc pour que le résultat génétique se détache de l'acte de prédiction, c'est-à-dire qu'il redevienne un moment de la vie du sujet qui puisse s'articuler comme sa propre histoire personnelle. The aim of predictive medicine is to assess the probability that individuals carrying germ-line mutations will develop certain diseases, for instance cancer (oncogenetics). In predictive oncology, particular surveillance and prevention measures are discussed with these patients in relation to risk assessment and results of genetic testing, including preventive care which can, in extremes cases, lead to prophylactic surgery (i.e. mastectomy and/or ovariectomy). This study is based on a psychoanalytic interpretation of subjects' narration of the oncogenetic process and aims at analyzing the psychological impact of a) genetic testing and b) the construction of the family tree. It was carried out at the Oncogenetics and cancer prevention unit (Unité d'oncogénétique et de prévention des cancers) from the Geneva University Hospitals (Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève, HUG) which organizes genetic counselling for individuals having personal and/or family history suggestive of genetic predisposition to cancer. The study population comprises 125 patients followed during the successive steps of genetic counselling, for a total of 289 consultations and 50 personal interviews. This research shows that asymptomatic subjects re-elaborate in a personal way either the results of genetic testing (negative or positive) or the act of prediction. Conversely, those having developed cancer express feelings of anguish, as if they were undergoing the effects of a destiny which effectively happened. Its sight remains a difficult step of the oncogenetic process, as psychological aspects which were repressed or denied can re-appear. When some family members are solicited to help reconstructing the genetic relationships, sometimes being themselves submitted first to genetic testing, the study subject expresses the difficulty to depend on other persons to learn more about his own biological status. In this study, we observe that, in parallel to predictions delivered by the process of predictive medicine, the subject actually answers unpredictably. With a psychoanalytic perspective, this unpredictability is related to an "unconscious desire". We also find that we cannot consider that genetic screening is a direct cause of psychological trauma. Our efforts must rely on allowing the subject to re-appropriate himself what is happening, to let him progressively express his own suffering of the prediction in order to create a gap between the medical reality and his own. In this process, "speech" is needed to let this happening. Psychoanalysis works in such a way that the genetic testing's result becomes distinct from the act of prediction, a moment of the subject's life expressed as his own personal history.

Sensitivity and specificity of parallel or serial serological testing for detection of canine Leishmania infection

In Brazil, human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) caused byLeishmania infantum has undergone urbanisation since 1980, constituting a public health problem, and serological tests are tools of choice for identifying infected dogs. Until recently, the Brazilian zoonoses control program recommended enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) and indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA) as the screening and confirmatory methods, respectively, for the detection of canine infection. The purpose of this study was to estimate the accuracy of ELISA and IFA in parallel or serial combinations. The reference standard comprised the results of direct visualisation of parasites in histological sections, immunohistochemical test, or isolation of the parasite in culture. Samples from 98 cases and 1,327 noncases were included. Individually, both tests presented sensitivity of 91.8% and 90.8%, and specificity of 83.4 and 53.4%, for the ELISA and IFA, respectively. When tests were used in parallel combination, sensitivity attained 99.2%, while specificity dropped to 44.8%. When used in serial combination (ELISA followed by IFA), decreased sensitivity (83.3%) and increased specificity (92.5%) were observed. Serial testing approach improved specificity with moderate loss in sensitivity. This strategy could partially fulfill the needs of public health and dog owners for a more accurate diagnosis of CVL.