Development of a screening tool predicting the transition from acute to chronic low back pain for patients in a GP setting: protocol of a multinational prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is by far the most prevalent and costly musculoskeletal problem in our society today. Following the recommendations of the Multinational Musculoskeletal Inception Cohort Study (MMICS) Statement, our study aims to define outcome assessment tools for patients with acute LBP and the time point at which chronic LBP becomes manifest and to identify patient characteristics which increase the risk of chronicity. METHODS: Patients with acute LBP will be recruited from clinics of general practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand (NZ) and Switzerland (CH). They will be assessed by postal survey at baseline and at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months follow-up. Primary outcome will be disability as measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI); key secondary endpoints will be general health as measured by the acute SF-12 and pain as measured on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). A subgroup analysis of different assessment instruments and baseline characteristics will be performed using multiple linear regression models. This study aims to examine: 1. Which biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational outcome assessment tools are identifiers for the transition from acute to chronic LBP and at which time point this transition becomes manifest. 2. Which psychosocial and occupational baseline characteristics like work status and period of work absenteeism influence the course from acute to chronic LBP. 3. Differences in outcome assessment tools and baseline characteristics of patients in NZ compared with CH. DISCUSSION: This study will develop a screening tool for patients with acute LBP to be used in GP clinics to access the risk of developing chronic LBP. In addition, biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational patient characteristics which influence the course from acute to chronic LBP will be identified. Furthermore, an appropriate time point for follow-ups will be given to detect this transition. The generalizability of our findings will be enhanced by the international perspective of this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12608000520336].

The diagnostic value of a treadmill test in predicting lumbar spinal stenosis

Lumbar spinal stenosis is a frequent indication for spinal surgery. The predictive quality of treadmill testing and MRI for diagnostic verification is not yet clearly defined. Aim of the current study was to assess correlations between treadmill testing and MRI findings in the lumbar spine. Twenty-five patients with lumbar spinal stenosis were prospectively examined. Treadmill tests were performed and the area of the dural sac and neuroforamina was examined with MRI for the narrowest spinal segment. VAS and ODI were used for clinical assessment. The median age of the patients was 67 years. In the narrowest spinal segment the median area of the dural sac was 91 mm(2). The median ODI was 66 per cent. The median walking distance in the treadmill test was 70 m. The distance reached in the treadmill test correlated with the area of the dural sac (Spearman's rho = 0.53) and ODI (rho = -0.51), but not with the area of the neuroforamina and VAS. The distance reached in the treadmill test predicts the grade of stenosis in MRI but has a limited diagnostic importance for the level of clinical symptoms in lumbar spinal stenosis.

Predicting the Mechanical Properties of Carbon-Based Materials Using Molecular Dynamics

The development of innovative carbon-based materials can be greatly facilitated by molecular modeling techniques. Although molecular modeling has been used extensively to predict elastic properties of materials, modeling of more complex phenomenon such as fracture has only recently been possible with the development of new force fields such as ReaxFF, which is used in this work. It is not fully understood what molecular modeling parameters such as thermostat type, thermostat coupling, time step, system size, and strain rate are required for accurate modeling of fracture. Selection of modeling parameters to model fracture can be difficult and non-intuitive compared to modeling elastic properties using traditional force fields, and the errors generated by incorrect parameters may be non-obvious. These molecular modeling parameters are systematically investigated and their effects on the fracture of well-known carbon materials are analyzed. It is determined that for coupling coefficients of 250 fs and greater do not result in substantial differences in the stress-strain response of the materials using any thermostat type. A time step of 0.5 fs of smaller is required for accurate results. Strain rates greater than 2.2 ns-1 are sufficient to obtain repeatable results with slower strain rates for the materials studied. The results of this study indicate that further refinement of the Chenoweth parameter set is required to accurately predict the mechanical response of carbon-based systems. The ReaxFF has been used extensively to model systems in which bond breaking and formation occur. In particular ReaxFF has been used to model reactions of small molecules. Some elastic and fracture properties have been successfully modeled using ReaxFF in materials such as silicon and some metals. However, it is not clear if current parameterizations for ReaxFF are able to accurately reproduce the elastic and fracture properties of carbon materials. The stress-strain response of a new ReaxFF parameterization is compared to the previous parameterization and density functional theory results for well-known carbon materials. The new ReaxFF parameterization makes xv substantial improvements to the predicted mechanical response of carbon materials, and is found to be suitable for modeling the mechanical response of carbon materials. Finally, a new material composed of carbon nanotubes within an amorphous carbon (AC) matrix is modeled using the ReaxFF. Various parameters that may be experimentally controlled are investigated such as nanotube bundling, comparing multi-walled nanotube with single-walled nanotubes, and degree of functionalization of the nanotubes. Elastic and fracture properties are investigated for the composite systems and compared to results of pure-nanotube and pure-AC models. It is found that the arrangement of the nanotubes and degree of crosslinking may substantially affect the properties of the systems, particularly in the transverse directions.

Predicting the evolution of Kaposi sarcoma, in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.

Predicting the population impact of chlamydia screening programmes: comparative mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: Published individual-based, dynamic sexual network modelling studies reach different conclusions about the population impact of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis. The objective of this study was to conduct a direct comparison of the effect of organised chlamydia screening in different models. METHODS: Three models simulating population-level sexual behaviour, chlamydia transmission, screening and partner notification were used. Parameters describing a hypothetical annual opportunistic screening program in 16-24 year olds were standardised, whereas other parameters from the three original studies were retained. Model predictions of the change in chlamydia prevalence were compared under a range of scenarios. RESULTS: Initial overall chlamydia prevalence rates were similar in women but not men and there were age and sex-specific differences between models. The number of screening tests carried out was comparable in all models but there were large differences in the predicted impact of screening. After 10 years of screening, the predicted reduction in chlamydia prevalence in women aged 16-44 years ranged from 4% to 85%. Screening men and women had a greater impact than screening women alone in all models. There were marked differences between models in assumptions about treatment seeking and sexual behaviour before the start of the screening intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Future models of chlamydia transmission should be fitted to both incidence and prevalence data. This meta-modelling study provides essential information for explaining differences between published studies and increasing the utility of individual-based chlamydia transmission models for policy making.

How basic need satisfaction and dispositional motives interact in predicting flow experience in sport

We have integrated the basic psychological needs approach from self-determination theory with motive disposition theory in order to enhance the prediction of flow experience in sports. We hypothesize that an environment that enables people to fulfill their basic psychological needs for competence and social relatedness results in flow. Additionally, we assume that the effect of competence need satisfaction is moderated by the achievement motive and that the effect of need-for-relatedness satisfaction is moderated by the affiliation motive. Four studies show the expected positive effects of need satisfaction on flow and further confirm that high achievement and affiliation-motivated individuals benefit more from competence and relatedness sports environments, respectively, than individuals low in these motives.

Who stays, who benefits? Predicting dropout and change in cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis

This study investigates predictors of outcome in a secondary analysis of dropout and completer data from a randomized controlled effectiveness trial comparing CBTp to a wait-list group (Lincoln et al., 2012). Eighty patients with DSM-IV psychotic disorders seeking outpatient treatment were included. Predictors were assessed at baseline. Symptom outcome was assessed at post-treatment and at one-year follow-up. The predictor x group interactions indicate that a longer duration of disorder predicted less improvement in negative symptoms in the CBTp but not in the wait-list group whereas jumping-to-conclusions was associated with poorer outcome only in the wait-list group. There were no CBTp specific predictors of improvement in positive symptoms. However, in the combined sample (immediate CBTp+the delayed CBTp group) baseline variables predicted significant amounts of positive and negative symptom variance at post-therapy and one-year follow-up after controlling for pre-treatment symptoms. Lack of insight and low social functioning were the main predictors of drop-out, contributing to a prediction accuracy of 87%. The findings indicate that higher baseline symptom severity, poorer functioning, neurocognitive deficits, reasoning biases and comorbidity pose no barrier to improvement during CBTp. However, in line with previous predictor-research, the findings imply that patients need to receive treatment earlier.