Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Persistent Impairment of Testicular Histology and Sperm Motility in Adult Rats Treated with Cisplatin at Peri-Puberty

Cisplatin is one of the most widely used and effective chemotherapeutic agents for the treatment of several human malignancies. This study evaluated the effects of peri-pubertal cisplatin administration on several reproductive end-points and the reversibility of these effects in adulthood. Peri-pubertal Wistar male rats (45 days old) were divided into two groups: control (saline 0.9%) and cisplatin (1 mg/kg/day, 5 days/week, for 3 weeks, i.p.). The study was conducted in two steps and evaluations were performed at ages of 66 (post-pubertal age) and 140 (adult age) days on: (i) organ weights, serum gonadotropins and testosterone levels, sperm counts, motility and morphology, testicular histomorphometry, spermatogenesis kinetics, Sertoli cell number and in situ detection of apoptotic germ cells and (ii) sexual behaviour, fertility and intratesticular testosterone. At the end of cisplatin therapy, rats showed reductions in sperm production and reserves, sperm with progressive movement, tubular diameter, intratesticular testosterone and fertility potential, but increased numbers of TUNEL-positive seminiferous tubules, immotile sperm and pre-implantation losses compared with control. Moreover, cisplatin-treated post-pubertal rats displayed impaired testicular histopathology and sexual behaviour. Serum gonadotropins and testosterone levels, sperm morphology, spermatogenesis kinetics and Sertoli cell number were comparable between experimental groups at both ages. Alterations found in post-puberty were recovered at adulthood, except for sperm motility and damage to testicular histology. The persistence of these cisplatin effects, despite the unaltered fertility after natural mating in rats, may have implications for reproductive function of young boys undergoing cancer therapy, given the lower reproductive efficiency in human beings compared with rats.

Patch dynamics and metapopulation theory: the case of successional species

We present a mathematical framework that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of patch succession. We draw an analogy between the epidemiological categorization of individuals (infected, susceptible, latent and resistant) and the patch structure of a spatially heterogeneous landscape (occupied-suitable, empty-suitable, occupied-unsuitable and empty-unsuitable). This approach allows one to consider life-history attributes that influence persistence in patchy environments (e.g., longevity, colonization ability) in concert with extrinsic processes (e.g., disturbances, succession) that lead to spatial heterogeneity in patch suitability. It also allows the incorporation of seed banks and other dormant life forms, thus broadening patch occupancy dynamics to include sink habitats. We use the model to investigate how equilibrium patch occupancy is influenced by four critical parameters: colonization rate? extinction rate, disturbance frequency and the rate of habitat succession. This analysis leads to general predictions about how the temporal scaling of patch succession and extinction-colonization dynamics influences long-term persistence. We apply the model to herbaceous, early-successional species that inhabit open patches created by periodic disturbances. We predict the minimum disturbance frequency required far viable management of such species in the Florida scrub ecosystem. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Role of LMP1 in immune control of EBV infection

The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) encoded latent membrane protein (LMP1) plays a crucial role in the long-term persistence of this virus within the cells of the immune system. Not only is this protein critical for the transformation of resting B cells by EBV, it also displays pleiotropic effects on various cellular proteins expressed in the host cell. These include up-regulation of expression of B cell activation antigens, adhesion molecules and various components of the antigen processing pathway. Here we discuss how LMP1 acts like an expression 'switch' which, depending on the stage of EBV infection, manoeuvres various pathways that either modulate the immune system towards or against its survival.

The geochemistry of late Archaean microbial carbonate: Implications for ocean chemistry and continental erosion history

Trace element concentrations and combined Sr- and Nd-isotope compositions were determined on stromatolitic carbonates (microbialites) from the 2.52 Ga Campbellrand carbonate platform (South Africa). Shale-normalised rare earth element and yttrium patterns of the ancient samples are similar to those of modern seawater in having positive La and Y anomalies and in being depleted in light rare earth elements. In contrast to modem seawater (and microbialite proxies), the 2.52 Ga samples lack a negative Ce anomaly but possess a positive Eu anomaly. These latter trace element characteristics are interpreted to reflect anoxic deep ocean waters where, unlike today, hydrothermal Fe input was not oxidised, and scavenged and rare earth elements were not coprecipitated with Fe-oxyhydroxides. The persistence of a positive Eu anomaly in relatively shallow Campbellrand platform waters indicates a dramatic reversal from hydrothermally dominated (Archaean) to continental erosion-dominated (Phanerozoic) rare earth element flux ratio. The dominant hydrothermal input is also expressed in the initial Sr- and Nd-isotope ratios. There is collinear variation in Sr-Nd systematics, which range from primitive values (Sr-87/Sr-86 of 0.702386 and epsilon (Nd) of +2.1) to more evolved crustal ratios. Mixing calculations show that the range in trace element ratios (e.g., Y/Ho) and initial isotope ratios is not a result of contamination by trapped sediment, but that the chemical band isotopic variation reflects carbonate deposition in an environment where different water masses mixed. Calculated Nd flux ratios yield a hydrothermal input into the 2.52 Ga oceans one order of magnitude larger than continental input. Such a change in flux ratio most likely required substantially reduced continental inputs, which could, in turn, reflect a plate tectonic causation (e.g., reduced topography or expansion of epicontinental seas). Copyright (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Lucerne biology and genetic improvement - an analysis of past activities and future goals in Australia

Breeding methodologies for cultivated lucerne (Medicago sativa L.), an autotetraploid, have changed little over the last 50 years, with reliance on polycross methods and recurrent phenotypic selection. There has been, however, an increase in our understanding of lucerne biology, in particular the genetic relationships between members of the M. sativa complex, as deduced by DNA analysis. Also, the differences in breeding behaviour and vigour of diploids versus autotetraploids, and the underlying genetic causes, are discussed in relation to lucerne improvement. Medicago falcata, a member of the M. sativa complex, has contributed substantially to lucerne improvement in North America, and its diverse genetics would appear to have been under-utilised in Australian programs over the last two decades, despite the reduced need for tolerance to freezing injury in Australian environments. Breeding of lucerne in Australia only commenced on a large scale in 1977, driven by an urgent need to introgress aphid resistance into adapted backgrounds. The release in the early 1980s of lucernes with multiple pest and disease resistance (aphids, Phytophthora, Colletotrichum) had a significant effect on increasing lucerne productivity and persistence in eastern Australia, with yield increases under high disease pressure of up to 300% being recorded over the predominant Australian cultivar, up to 1977, Hunter River. Since that period, irrigated lucerne yields have plateaued, highlighting the need to identify breeding objectives, technologies, and the germplasm that will create new opportunities for increasing performance. This review discusses major goals for lucerne improvement programs in Australia, and provides indications of the germplasm sources and technologies that are likely to deliver the desired outcomes.

The effect of mode of exposure to Beauveria bassiana on conidia acquisition and host mortality of Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata

The effects of the mode of exposure of second instar Colorado potato beetles to Beauveria bassiana on conidia acquisition and resulting mortality were investigated in laboratory studies. Larvae sprayed directly with a B, bassiana condial suspension, larvae exposed to B, bassiana-treated foliage, and larvae both sprayed and exposed to treated foliage experienced 76, 34, and 77% mortality, respectively. The total number of conidia and the proportion of germinating conidia were measured over time for four sections of the insect body: the ventral surface of the head (consisting mostly of ventral mouth parts), the ventral abdominal surface, the dorsal abdominal surface, and the legs. From observations at 24 and 36 h posttreatment, mean totals of 161.1 conidia per insect were found on sprayed larvae, 256.1 conidia on larvae exposed only to treated foliage, and 408.3 conidia on larvae both sprayed and exposed to treated foliage, On sprayed larvae, the majority of conidia were found on the dorsal abdominal surface, whereas conidia were predominantly found in the ventral abdominal surface and mouth parts on larvae exposed to treated foliage, Between 24 and 36 h postinoculation the percentage of conidia germinating on sprayed larvae increased slightly from 80 to 84%), On the treated foliage, the percentage of germinated conidia on larvae increased from 35% at 24 h to 50% at 36 h posttreatment, Conidia germination on sprayed larvae on treated foliage was 65% at 24 h and 75% at 36 h posttreatment, It is likely that the gradual acquisition of conidia derived from the continuous exposure to B. bassiana inoculum on the foliar surface was responsible for the increase in germination over time on larvae exposed to treated foliage, The density and germination of conidia were observed 0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 h after being sprayed with or dipped in conidia suspensions or exposing insects to contaminated foliage, Conidia germinated twice as fast on sprayed insects as with any other treatment within the first 12 h, This faster germination may be due to the pressure of the sprayer enhancing conidial lodging on cuticular surfaces. (C) 2001 Academic Press.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Disease, habitat fragmentation and conservation

Habitat loss and the resultant fragmentation of remaining habitat is the primary cause of loss of biological diversity. How do these processes affect the dynamics of parasites and pathogens? Hess has provided some important insights into this problem using metapopulation models for pathogens that exhibit 'S-I' dynamics; for example, pathogens such as rabies in which the host population may be divided into susceptible and infected individuals. A major assumption of Hess's models is that infected patches become extinct, rather than recovering and becoming resistant to future infections. In this paper, we build upon this framework in two different ways: first, we examine the consequences of including patches that are resistant to infection; second, we examine the consequences of including a second species of host that can act as a reservoir for the pathogen. Both of these effects are likely to be important from a conservation perspective. The results of both sets of analysis indicate that the benefits of corridors and other connections that allow species to disperse through the landscape far outweigh the possible risks of increased pathogen transmission. Even in the commonest case, where harmful pathogens are maintained by a common reservoir host, increased landscape connectance still allows greater coexistence and persistence of a threatened or endangered host.

Responses to a clinical test of mechanical provocation of nerve tissue in whiplash associated disorder

Involvement of nerve tissue may contribute to the persistence of pain following a whiplash injury. This study aimed to investigate responses to the brachial plexus provocation test (BPPT) in 156 subjects with chronic whiplash associated disorder (WAD) with and without associated arm pain and 95 asymptomatic control subjects. The range of elbow extension (ROM) and visual analogue scale (VAS) pain scores were measured. Subjects with chronic WAD demonstrated significantly less ROM and higher VAS scores with the BPPT than the asymptomatic subjects (P

The politics of suffering: Progress, modernity and the adolescent crisis

A concern for progress is central to the public agendas of modern societies. Political actors compete with one another mainly with regard to their respective claims to bring about a better future, particularly in the economic and technological spheres. The focus on progress has, however, deeper roots which date back to the aspirations of the Enlightenment. Around that time, the belief arose that systematic improvements are made possible by the structural features of modern society and culture, improvements that will gradually release humanity from much of the suffering characterising its historical past. This article argues the persistence of a culture of progress, rather than easing suffering, in fact enhances and mobilises it for the pursuit of superficial forms of gain. It is also claimed the attempt by Habermas' critical theory to develop a broader and more satisfactory conception of progress fails to address this problem. The article suggests an alternative and more fundamental critique of progressive ideas is required. It reflects upon these abstract theoretical questions in connection with the concrete example of the 'adolescent crisis' and the role ideas of progress play within it.

Streptococcus pyogenes prtFII, but not sfbI, sfbII or fbp54, is represented more frequently among invasive-disease isolates of tropical Australia

Streptococcus pyogenes (group A streptococcus) strains may express several distinct fibronectin-binding proteins (FBPs) which are considered as major streptococcal adhesins. Of the FBPs, SfbI was shown in vitro to promote internalization of the bacterium into host cells and has been implicated in persistence. In the tropical Northern Territory, where group A streptococcal infection is common, multiple genotypes of the organism were found among isolates from invasive disease cases and no dominant strains were observed. To determine whether any FBPs is associated with invasive disease propensity of S. pyogenes, we have screened streptococcal isolates from bacteraemic and necrotizing fasciitis patients and isolates from uncomplicated infections for genetic endowment of 4 FBPs. No difference was observed in the distribution of sfbII, fbp54 and sfbI between the blood isolates' and isolates from uncomplicated infection. We conclude that the presence of sfbI does not appear to promote invasive diseases, despite its association with persistence. We also show a higher proportion of group A streptococcus strains isolated from invasive disease cases possess prtFII when compared to strains isolated from non-invasive disease cases. We suggest that S. pyogenes may recruit different FBPs for different purposes.

Characterization of highly conserved microsatellite loci in Araucaria cunninghamii and related species

Ten microsatellite loci are described in Araucaria cunninghamii, the first reported in the Araucariaceae. Eight were tested in sections Eutacta and Bunya, which diverged more than 200 MYA, and to the sister genus Agathis. Specific amplification products within the expected size range were obtained for six to eight loci in section Eutacta (depending on species), five loci in section Bunya and three. loci in Agathis. Two of the loci (CRCAc1 and CRCAc2, both GA repeats) produced specific amplification products in all taxa, with orthology confirmed by sequence analysis. The repeats were perfect in all taxa. The flanking sequences were extremely conserved, with sequence divergence of 0% to 2.0% within Araucaria species and 2.9% to 7.5% between Araucaria and Agathis. These microsatellites represent some of the most conserved microsatellite loci reported in plants. This may be due to a low evolutionary rate in Araucariaceae genome or the loci may be closely associated with highly conserved, unreported genes.

A molecular phylogeny of the Australian skink genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura

Skinks from the genera Eulamprus, Gnypetoscincus and Nangura are a prominent component of the reptile fauna of the mesic forests of the east coast of Australia and have been the subject of numerous ecological studies. Highly conserved morphology and the retention of ancestral traits have limited our understanding of the relationships within and among these genera beyond an initial identification of species groups within Eulamprus. To address this deficit and to explore the relationships between Eulamprus and the monotypic genera Nangura and Gnypetoscincus, sections of two mitochondrial genes (ND4 and 16S rRNA) were sequenced and subjected to Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. This phylogenetic analysis supports recognition of the three species groups proposed for Eulamprus (murrayi, quoyii and tenuis) and indicates that this genus is paraphyletic, with Gnypetoscincus and Nangura being proximal to basal lineages of the tenuis group. To resolve these and broader problems of paraphyly, we suggest that each of the species groups from 'Eulamprus' should be recognised as a distinct genus. The phylogenetically and ecologically distinct water skinks of the quoyii group would be retained within Eulamprus and the diverse species of the tenuis group allocated to Concinnia. We suggest placing the monophyletic murrayi group, endemic to the rainforests of central eastern Australia, in a new genus ( yet to be formally described). The sequencing data also revealed the existence of a genetically divergent but morphologically cryptic lineage within E. murrayi and substantial diversity within E. quoyii. There is evidence for two major habitat shifts from rainforest towards drier habitats, one leading to the quoyii group and the second defining a clade of three species within the tenuis complex. These ecological transitions may represent adaptations to general drying across eastern Australia during the late Miocene - Pliocene. Each of the major areas of east coast tropical or subtropical rainforest contains multiple phylogenetically diverse endemic species, reflecting the long-term persistence and high conservation value of wet forest habitats in each area.