Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors.

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household-level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999 and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID's sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one's confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID's complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.

Slowing Down

We extend the efficiency wage model of Shapiro and Stiglitz to account for the observation that workers’ effort has a tendency to fall when they approach the end of their employment contract. In particular, we find that the efficiency wage increases when the end of term approaches for a given rate of unemployment. We draw implications for the behavior of workers who are approaching retirement, temporary employment contracts, and the advance notice of impending job loss.

Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Separation of free amino acids in human plasma by capillary electrophoresis with laser induced fluorescence: potential for emergency diagnosis of inborn errors of metabolism.

Free amino acids (AAs) in human plasma are derivatized with 3-(4-carboxybenzoyl)quinoline-2-carboxaldehyde (CBQCA) and analyzed by capillary electrophoresis (CE) with laser induced fluorescence (LIF) detection. The labeling procedure is significantly improved over results reported previously. Derivatization can be completed in 40 min, with concentrations as low as 4 x 10(-8) M successfully labeled in favourable cases. Twenty-nine AAs (including 2 internal standards) are identified and can be reproducibly separated in 70 min. Migration time RSD values for 23 of these AAs were calculated and found in the range from 0.5 to 4%. The rapid derivatization procedure and the resolution obtained in the separation are sufficient for a semi-quantitative, emergency diagnosis of several inborn errors of metabolism (IEM). Amino acid profiles for both normal donor plasma samples and plasma samples of patients suffering from phenylketonuria, tyrosinemia, maple syrup urinary disease, hyperornithinemia, and citrullinemia are studied.

An optimized method for establishing high purity murine CD8+ T cell cultures.

Establishing CD8(+) T cell cultures has been empirical and the published methods have been largely individual laboratory based. In this study, we optimized culturing conditions and show that IL-2 concentration is the most critical factor for the success of establishing CD8(+) T cell cultures. High IL-2 concentration encouraged T cells to non-specifically proliferate, express a B cell marker, B220, and undergo apoptosis. These cells also lose typical irregular T cell morphology and are incapable of sustaining long-term cultures. Using tetramer and intracellular cytokine assessments, we further demonstrated that many antigen-specific T cells have been rendered nonfunctional when expanded under high IL-2 concentration. When IL-2 is used in the correct range, B220-mediated cell depletion greatly enhanced the success rate of such T cell cultures.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in young adults : a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients. METHODS: We pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ≤45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17 700 cases and 22 704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI = 9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking = 5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR = 1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

Protein interaction data curation: the International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium.

The International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium is an international collaboration between major public interaction data providers to share literature-curation efforts and make a nonredundant set of protein interactions available in a single search interface on a common website (http://www.imexconsortium.org/). Common curation rules have been developed, and a central registry is used to manage the selection of articles to enter into the dataset. We discuss the advantages of such a service to the user, our quality-control measures and our data-distribution practices.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Genetic linkage of Bietti crystallin corneoretinal dystrophy to chromosome 4q35.

Bietti crystalline corneoretinal dystrophy (BCD) is an autosomal recessive retinal degeneration characterized by multiple glistening intraretinal dots scattered over the fundus, degeneration of the retina, and sclerosis of the choroidal vessels, ultimately resulting in progressive night blindness and constriction of the visual field. Although BCD has been associated with abnormalities in fatty-acid metabolism and absence of fatty-acid binding by two cytosolic proteins, the genetic basis of BCD is unknown. We report linkage of the BCD locus to D4S426 (maximum LOD score [Z(max)] 4.81; recombination fraction [straight theta] 0), D4S2688 (Zmax=3.97; straight theta=0), and D4S2299 (Zmax=5.31; straight theta=0), on chromosome 4q35-4qtel. Multipoint analysis confirmed linkage to the region telomeric of D4S1652 with a Z(max) of 5.3 located 4 cM telomeric of marker D4S2930.

Thirty new loci for age at menarche identified by a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies.

To identify loci for age at menarche, we performed a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies in 87,802 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,731 women. In addition to the known loci at LIN28B (P = 5.4 × 10⁻⁶⁰) and 9q31.2 (P = 2.2 × 10⁻³³), we identified 30 new menarche loci (all P < 5 × 10⁻⁸) and found suggestive evidence for a further 10 loci (P < 1.9 × 10⁻⁶). The new loci included four previously associated with body mass index (in or near FTO, SEC16B, TRA2B and TMEM18), three in or near other genes implicated in energy homeostasis (BSX, CRTC1 and MCHR2) and three in or near genes implicated in hormonal regulation (INHBA, PCSK2 and RXRG). Ingenuity and gene-set enrichment pathway analyses identified coenzyme A and fatty acid biosynthesis as biological processes related to menarche timing.

A genome-wide association study of early menopause and the combined impact of identified variants.

Early menopause (EM) affects up to 10% of the female population, reducing reproductive lifespan considerably. Currently, it constitutes the leading cause of infertility in the western world, affecting mainly those women who postpone their first pregnancy beyond the age of 30 years. The genetic aetiology of EM is largely unknown in the majority of cases. We have undertaken a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in 3493 EM cases and 13 598 controls from 10 independent studies. No novel genetic variants were discovered, but the 17 variants previously associated with normal age at natural menopause as a quantitative trait (QT) were also associated with EM and primary ovarian insufficiency (POI). Thus, EM has a genetic aetiology which overlaps variation in normal age at menopause and is at least partly explained by the additive effects of the same polygenic variants. The combined effect of the common variants captured by the single nucleotide polymorphism arrays was estimated to account for ∼30% of the variance in EM. The association between the combined 17 variants and the risk of EM was greater than the best validated non-genetic risk factor, smoking.

On p-optimal proof systems and logics for PTIME

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