Stress testing and risk evaluation of new capacity payment algorithm proposed by Market Council

In the Russian Wholesale Market, electricity and capacity are traded separately. Capacity is a special good, the sale of which obliges suppliers to keep their generating equipment ready to produce the quantity of electricity indicated by the System Operator. The purpose of the formation of capacity trading was the maintenance of reliable and uninterrupted delivery of electricity in the wholesale market. The price of capacity reflects constant investments in construction, modernization and maintenance of power plants. So, the capacity sale creates favorable conditions to attract investments in the energy sector because it guarantees the investor that his investments will be returned.

Pencil grip : a descriptive model and four empirical studies

Previous studies on pencil grip have typically dealt with the developmental aspects in young children while handwriting research is mainly concerned with speed and legibility. Studies linking these areas are few. Evaluation of the existing pencil grip studies is hampered by methodological inconsistencies. The operational definitions of pencil grip arerational but tend to be oversimplified while detailed descriptors tend to be impractical due to their multiplicity. The present study introduces a descriptive two-dimensional model for the categorisation of pencil grip suitable for research applications in a classroom setting. The model is used in four empirical studies of children during the first six years of writing instruction. Study 1 describes the pencil grips observed in a large group of pupils in Finland (n = 504). The results indicate that in Finland the majority of grips resemble the traditional dynamic tripod grip. Significant genderrelated differences in pencil grip were observed. Study 2 is a longitudinal exploration of grip stability vs. change (n = 117). Both expected and unexpected changes were observed in about 25 per cent of the children's grips over four years. A new finding emerged using the present model for categorisation: whereas pencil grips would change, either in terms of ease of grip manipulation or grip configuration, no instances were found where a grip would have changed concurrently on both dimensions. Study 3 is a cross-cultural comparison of grips observed in Finland and the USA (n = 793). The distribution of the pencil grips observed in the American pupils was significantly different from those found in Finland. The cross-cultural disparity is most likely related to the differences in the onset of writing instruction. The differences between the boys' and girls' grips in the American group were non-significant.An implication of Studies 2 and 3 is that the initial pencil grip is of foremost importance since pencil grips are largely stable over time. Study 4 connects the pencil grips to assessment of the mechanics of writing (n = 61). It seems that certain previously not recommended pencil grips might nevertheless be includedamong those accepted since they did not appear to hamper either fluency or legibility.

Solving Leontief Input-Output Model with Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers and Gauss-Seidel Algorithm

In this work a fuzzy linear system is used to solve Leontief input-output model with fuzzy entries. For solving this model, we assume that the consumption matrix from di erent sectors of the economy and demand are known. These assumptions heavily depend on the information obtained from the industries. Hence uncertainties are involved in this information. The aim of this work is to model these uncertainties and to address them by fuzzy entries such as fuzzy numbers and LR-type fuzzy numbers (triangular and trapezoidal). Fuzzy linear system has been developed using fuzzy data and it is solved using Gauss-Seidel algorithm. Numerical examples show the e ciency of this algorithm. The famous example from Prof. Leontief, where he solved the production levels for U.S. economy in 1958, is also further analyzed.

GAMS MINLP Solver comparisons and some improvements to the AlphaECP algorithm

I doktorsavhandlingen undersöks förmågan att lösa hos ett antal lösare för optimeringsproblem och ett antal svårigheter med att göra en rättvis lösarjämförelse avslöjas. Dessutom framläggs några förbättringar som utförts på en av lösarna som heter GAMS/AlphaECP. Optimering innebär, i det här sammanhanget, att finna den bästa möjliga lösningen på ett problem. Den undersökta klassen av problem kan karaktäriseras som svårlöst och förekommer inom ett flertal industriområden. Målet har varit att undersöka om det finns en lösare som är universellt snabbare och hittar lösningar med högre kvalitet än någon av de andra lösarna. Det kommersiella optimeringssystemet GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) och omfattande problembibliotek har använts för att jämföra lösare. Förbättringarna som presenterats har utförts på GAMS/AlphaECP lösaren som baserar sig på skärplansmetoden Extended Cutting Plane (ECP). ECP-metoden har utvecklats främst av professor Tapio Westerlund på Anläggnings- och systemteknik vid Åbo Akademi.

Software for calculation of reservoir active capacity with the sequent-peak algorithm

It is presented a software developed with Delphi programming language to compute the reservoir's annual regulated active storage, based on the sequent-peak algorithm. Mathematical models used for that purpose generally require extended hydrological series. Usually, the analysis of those series is performed with spreadsheets or graphical representations. Based on that, it was developed a software for calculation of reservoir active capacity. An example calculation is shown by 30-years (from 1977 to 2009) monthly mean flow historical data, from Corrente River, located at São Francisco River Basin, Brazil. As an additional tool, an interface was developed to manage water resources, helping to manipulate data and to point out information that it would be of interest to the user. Moreover, with that interface irrigation districts where water consumption is higher can be analyzed as a function of specific seasonal water demands situations. From a practical application, it is possible to conclude that the program provides the calculation originally proposed. It was designed to keep information organized and retrievable at any time, and to show simulation on seasonal water demands throughout the year, contributing with the elements of study concerning reservoir projects. This program, with its functionality, is an important tool for decision making in the water resources management.

The energy efficiency of chilled beam systems in an office building at different climates

Besides the sustaining of healthy and comfortable indoor climate, the air conditioning system should also achieve for energy efficiency. The target indoor climate can be ob-tained with different systems; this study focuses on comparing the energy efficiency of different air conditioning room unit systems in different climates. The calculations are made with dynamic energy simulation software IDA ICE by comparing the indoor cli-mate and energy consumption of an office building with different systems in different climates. The aim of the study is to compare the energy efficiency of chilled beam systems to other common systems: variable air volume, fan coil and radiant ceiling systems. Besides the annual energy consumption also the sustainability of target indoor climate is compared between the simulations. Another aim is to provide conclusions to be used in the product development of the chilled beam systems’ energy efficiency. The adaptable chilled beam system and the radiant ceiling system prove to be energy efficient independent of the climate. The challenge of reliable comparison is that other systems are not able to reach the target indoor climate as well as the others. The complex calculation environment of the simulation software, made assumptions and excluding of the financial aspects complicate comparing the big picture. The results show that the development of the chilled beam systems should concentrate on energy efficient night heating, flexible demand based ventilation and capacity control and possibilities on integrating the best practices with other systems. 

Characterisation of Laser Beam and Paper Material Interaction

It is known already from 1970´s that laser beam is suitable for processing paper materials. In this thesis, term paper materials mean all wood-fibre based materials, like dried pulp, copy paper, newspaper, cardboard, corrugated board, tissue paper etc. Accordingly, laser processing in this thesis means all laser treatments resulting material removal, like cutting, partial cutting, marking, creasing, perforation etc. that can be used to process paper materials. Laser technology provides many advantages for processing of paper materials: non-contact method, freedom of processing geometry, reliable technology for non-stop production etc. Especially packaging industry is very promising area for laser processing applications. However, there are only few industrial laser processing applications worldwide even in beginning of 2010´s. One reason for small-scale use of lasers in paper material manufacturing is that there is a shortage of published research and scientific articles. Another problem, restraining the use of laser for processing of paper materials, is colouration of paper material i.e. the yellowish and/or greyish colour of cut edge appearing during cutting or after cutting. These are the main reasons for selecting the topic of this thesis to concern characterization of interaction of laser beam and paper materials. This study was carried out in Laboratory of Laser Processing at Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland). Laser equipment used in this study was TRUMPF TLF 2700 carbon dioxide laser that produces a beam with wavelength of 10.6 μm with power range of 190-2500 W (laser power on work piece). Study of laser beam and paper material interaction was carried out by treating dried kraft pulp (grammage of 67 g m-2) with different laser power levels, focal plane postion settings and interaction times. Interaction between laser beam and dried kraft pulp was detected with different monitoring devices, i.e. spectrometer, pyrometer and active illumination imaging system. This way it was possible to create an input and output parameter diagram and to study the effects of input and output parameters in this thesis. When interaction phenomena are understood also process development can be carried out and even new innovations developed. Fulfilling the lack of information on interaction phenomena can assist in the way of lasers for wider use of technology in paper making and converting industry. It was concluded in this thesis that interaction of laser beam and paper material has two mechanisms that are dependent on focal plane position range. Assumed interaction mechanism B appears in range of average focal plane position of 3.4 mm and 2.4 mm and assumed interaction mechanism A in range of average focal plane position of 0.4 mm and -0.6 mm both in used experimental set up. Focal plane position 1.4 mm represents midzone of these two mechanisms. Holes during laser beam and paper material interaction are formed gradually: first small hole is formed to interaction area in the centre of laser beam cross-section and after that, as function of interaction time, hole expands, until interaction between laser beam and dried kraft pulp is ended. By the image analysis it can be seen that in beginning of laser beam and dried kraft pulp material interaction small holes off very good quality are formed. It is obvious that black colour and heat affected zone appear as function of interaction time. This reveals that there still are different interaction phases within interaction mechanisms A and B. These interaction phases appear as function of time and also as function of peak intensity of laser beam. Limit peak intensity is the value that divides interaction mechanism A and B from one-phase interaction into dual-phase interaction. So all peak intensity values under limit peak intensity belong to MAOM (interaction mechanism A one-phase mode) or to MBOM (interaction mechanism B onephase mode) and values over that belong to MADM (interaction mechanism A dual-phase mode) or to MBDM (interaction mechanism B dual-phase mode). Decomposition process of cellulose is evolution of hydrocarbons when temperature is between 380- 500°C. This means that long cellulose molecule is split into smaller volatile hydrocarbons in this temperature range. As temperature increases, decomposition process of cellulose molecule changes. In range of 700-900°C, cellulose molecule is mainly decomposed into H2 gas; this is why this range is called evolution of hydrogen. Interaction in this range starts (as in range of MAOM and MBOM), when a small good quality hole is formed. This is due to “direct evaporation” of pulp via decomposition process of evolution of hydrogen. And this can be seen can be seen in spectrometer as high intensity peak of yellow light (in range of 588-589 nm) which refers to temperature of ~1750ºC. Pyrometer does not detect this high intensity peak since it is not able to detect physical phase change from solid kraft pulp to gaseous compounds. As interaction time between laser beam and dried kraft pulp continues, hypothesis is that three auto ignition processes occurs. Auto ignition of substance is the lowest temperature in which it will spontaneously ignite in a normal atmosphere without an external source of ignition, such as a flame or spark. Three auto ignition processes appears in range of MADM and MBDM, namely: 1. temperature of auto ignition of hydrogen atom (H2) is 500ºC, 2. temperature of auto ignition of carbon monoxide molecule (CO) is 609ºC and 3. temperature of auto ignition of carbon atom (C) is 700ºC. These three auto ignition processes leads to formation of plasma plume which has strong emission of radiation in range of visible light. Formation of this plasma plume can be seen as increase of intensity in wavelength range of ~475-652 nm. Pyrometer shows maximum temperature just after this ignition. This plasma plume is assumed to scatter laser beam so that it interacts with larger area of dried kraft pulp than what is actual area of beam cross-section. This assumed scattering reduces also peak intensity. So result shows that assumably scattered light with low peak intensity is interacting with large area of hole edges and due to low peak intensity this interaction happens in low temperature. So interaction between laser beam and dried kraft pulp turns from evolution of hydrogen to evolution of hydrocarbons. This leads to black colour of hole edges.

Capacity of an I-beam made of S960 QC based on Eurocode 3

The capacity of beams is a very important factor in the study of durability of structures and structural members. The capacity of a high-strength steel I-beam made of S960 QC was investigated in this study. The investigation included assessment of the service limits and ultimate limits of the steel beam. The thesis was done according to European standards for steel structures, Eurocode 3. An analytical method was used to determine the throat thickness, deformation, elastic and plastic moment capacities as well as the fatigue life of the beam. The results of the analytical method were compared with those obtained by Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Elastic moment capacity obtained by the analytical method was 172 kNm. FEA and the analytical method predicted the maximum lateral-torsional buckling (LTB) capacity in the range of 90-93 kNm and the probability of failure as a result of LTB is estimated to be 50%. The lateral buckling capacity meant that the I-beam can carry a safe load of 300 kN instead of the initial load of 600 kN. The beam is liable to fail shortly after exceeding the elastic moment capacity. Based on results in of the different approaches, it was noted that FEA predicted higher deformation values on the load-deformation curve than the analytical results. However, both FEA and the analytical methods predicted identical results for nominal stress range and moment capacities. Fatigue life was estimated to be in the range of 53000-64000 cycles for bending stress range using crack propagation equation and strength-life approach. As Eurocode 3 is limited to steel grades up to S690, results for S960 must be verified with experimental data and appropriate design rules.

Algorithm to determine the intersection curves between bezier surfaces by the solution of multivariable polynomial system and the differential marching method

The determination of the intersection curve between Bézier Surfaces may be seen as the composition of two separated problems: determining initial points and tracing the intersection curve from these points. The Bézier Surface is represented by a parametric function (polynomial with two variables) that maps a point in the tridimensional space from the bidimensional parametric space. In this article, it is proposed an algorithm to determine the initial points of the intersection curve of Bézier Surfaces, based on the solution of polynomial systems with the Projected Polyhedral Method, followed by a method for tracing the intersection curves (Marching Method with differential equations). In order to allow the use of the Projected Polyhedral Method, the equations of the system must be represented in terms of the Bernstein basis, and towards this goal it is proposed a robust and reliable algorithm to exactly transform a multivariable polynomial in terms of power basis to a polynomial written in terms of Bernstein basis .

Chaos and Unpredictability in the Vibration of an Elasto-Plastic Beam

This contribution discusses the nonlinear dynamics of a pin-ended elasto-plastic beam with both kinematic and isotropic hardening. An iterative numerical procedure based on the operator split technique is developed in order to deal with the nonlinearities in the equations of motion. Free and forced responses for harmonic sinusoidal and square wave excitations are investigated. Numerical simulations present many interesting behaviors such as jump phenomena, sensitivity to initial conditions, chaos and transient chaos. These results indicate that there are practical problems in predicting the response of the beam even when periodic steady state response is expected.

Numerical Simulation of the Cavitation in the Hydrodynamic Lubrication of Journal Bearings: a Parallel Algorithm

In this paper we present an algorithm for the numerical simulation of the cavitation in the hydrodynamic lubrication of journal bearings. Despite the fact that this physical process is usually modelled as a free boundary problem, we adopted the equivalent variational inequality formulation. We propose a two-level iterative algorithm, where the outer iteration is associated to the penalty method, used to transform the variational inequality into a variational equation, and the inner iteration is associated to the conjugate gradient method, used to solve the linear system generated by applying the finite element method to the variational equation. This inner part was implemented using the element by element strategy, which is easily parallelized. We analyse the behavior of two physical parameters and discuss some numerical results. Also, we analyse some results related to the performance of a parallel implementation of the algorithm.

An Inspection System to Identify Fatigue Damage on Steel-Bridge Structures

Crack formation and growth in steel bridge structural elements may be due to loading oscillations. The welded elements are liable to internal discontinuities along welded joints and sensible to stress variations. The evaluation of the remaining life of a bridge is needed to make cost-effective decisions regarding inspection, repair, rehabilitation, and replacement. A steel beam model has been proposed to simulate crack openings due to cyclic loads. Two possible alternatives have been considered to model crack propagation, which the initial phase is based on the linear fracture mechanics. Then, the model is extended to take into account the elastoplastic fracture mechanic concepts. The natural frequency changes are directly related to moment of inertia variation and consequently to a reduction in the flexural stiffness of a steel beam. Thus, it is possible to adopt a nondestructive technique during steel bridge inspection to quantify the structure eigenvalue variation that will be used to localize the grown fracture. A damage detection algorithm is developed for the proposed model and the numerical results are compared with the solutions achieved by using another well know computer code.

Stiffness based trajectory planning and feedforward based vibration suppression control of parallel robot machines

The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

Assessing negative priming by attended distractors in a paper-and-pencil task

The paper-and-pencil digit-comparison task for assessing negative priming (NP) was introduced, using a referent-size-selection procedure that was demonstrated to enhance the effect. NP is indicated by slower responses to recently ignored items, and proposed within the clinical-experimental framework as a major cognitive index of active suppression of distracting information, critical to executive functioning. The digit-comparison task requires circling digits of a list with digit-asterisk pairs (a baseline measure for digit-selection), and the larger of two digits in each pair of the unrelated (with different digits in successive digit-pairs) and related lists (in which the smaller digit subsequently became a target). A total of 56 students (18-38 years) participated in two experiments that explored practice effects across lists and demonstrated reliable NP, i.e., slowing to complete the related list relative to the unrelated list, (F(2, 44) = 52.42, P < 0.0001). A 3rd experiment examined age-related effects. In the paper-and-pencil digit-comparison task, NP was reliable for the younger (N = 8, 18-24 years) and middle-aged adults (N = 8, 31-54 years), but absent for the older group (N = 8, 68-77 years). NP was also reduced with aging in a computer-implemented digit-comparison task, and preserved in a task typically used to test location-specific NP, accounting for the dissociation between identity- and spatial-based suppression of distractors (Rao R(3, 12) = 16.02, P < 0.0002). Since the paper-and-pencil digit-comparison task can be administered easily, it can be useful for neuropsychologists seeking practical measures of NP that do not require cumbersome technical equipment.

Thick Section Laser Beam Welding of Structural Steels: Methods for Improving Welding Efficiency

Laser beam welding (LBW) is applicable for a wide range of industrial sectors and has a history of fifty years. However, it is considered an unusual method with applications typically limited to welding of thin sheet metal. With a new generation of high power lasers there has been a renewed interest in thick section LBW (also known as keyhole laser welding). There was a growing body of publications during 2001-2011 that indicates an increasing interest in laser welding for many industrial applications, and in last ten years, an increasing number of studies have examined the ways to increase the efficiency of the process. Expanding the thickness range and efficiency of LBW makes the process a possibility for industrial applications dealing with thick metal welding: shipbuilding, offshore structures, pipelines, power plants and other industries. The advantages provided by LBW, such as high process speed, high productivity, and low heat input, may revolutionize these industries and significantly reduce the process costs. The research to date has focused on either increasing the efficiency via optimizing process parameters, or on the process fundamentals, rather than on process and workpiece modifications. The argument of this thesis is that the efficiency of the laser beam process can be increased in a straightforward way in the workshop conditions. Throughout this dissertation, the term “efficiency” is used to refer to welding process efficiency, specifically, an increase in efficiency refers an increase in weld’s penetration depth without increasing laser power level or decreasing welding speed. These methods are: modifications of the workpiece – edge surface roughness and air gap between the joining plates; modification of the ambient conditions – local reduction of the pressure in the welding zone; modification of the welding process – preheating of the welding zone. Approaches to improve the efficiency are analyzed and compared both separately and combined. These experimentally proven methods confirm previous findings and contribute additional evidence which expand the opportunities for laser beam welding applications. The focus of this research was primarily on the effects of edge surface roughness preparation and pre-set air gap between the plates on weld quality and penetration depth. To date, there has been no reliable evidence that such modifications of the workpiece give a positive effect on the welding efficiency. Other methods were tested in combination with the two methods mentioned above. The most promising - combining with reduced pressure method - resulted in at least 100% increase in efficiency. The results of this thesis support the idea that joining those methods in one modified process will provide the modern engineering with a sufficient tool for many novel applications with potential benefits to a range of industries.