Cognitive Comparative Advantage and the Organization of Work: Lessons from Herbert Simon's Vision of the Future

In a marvelous but somewhat neglected paper, 'The Corporation: Will It Be Managed by Machines?' Herbert Simon articulated from the perspective of 1960 his vision of what we now call the New Economy the machine-aided system of production and management of the late twentieth century. Simon's analysis sprang from what I term the principle of cognitive comparative advantage: one has to understand the quite different cognitive structures of humans and machines (including computers) in order to explain and predict the tasks to which each will be most suited. Perhaps unlike Simon's better-known predictions about progress in artificial intelligence research, the predictions of this 1960 article hold up remarkably well and continue to offer important insights. In what follows I attempt to tell a coherent story about the evolution of machines and the division of labor between humans and machines. Although inspired by Simon's 1960 paper, I weave many other strands into the tapestry, from classical discussions of the division of labor to present-day evolutionary psychology. The basic conclusion is that, with growth in the extent of the market, we should see humans 'crowded into' tasks that call for the kinds of cognition for which humans have been equipped by biological evolution. These human cognitive abilities range from the exercise of judgment in situations of ambiguity and surprise to more mundane abilities in spatio-temporal perception and locomotion. Conversely, we should see machines 'crowded into' tasks with a well-defined structure. This conclusion is not based (merely) on a claim that machines, including computers, are specialized idiots-savants today because of the limits (whether temporary or permanent) of artificial intelligence; rather, it rests on a claim that, for what are broadly 'economic' reasons, it will continue to make economic sense to create machines that are idiots-savants.

Horizontal profiles of longwave and shortwave radiation components over sea ice near Barrow, Alaska during the 2011 melt

An integrated instrument package for measuring and understanding the surface radiation budget of sea ice is presented, along with results from its first deployment. The setup simultaneously measures broadband fluxes of upwelling and downwelling terrestrial and solar radiation (four components separately), spectral fluxes of incident and reflected solar radiation, and supporting data such as air temperature and humidity, surface temperature, and location (GPS), in addition to photographing the sky and observed surface during each measurement. The instruments are mounted on a small sled, allowing measurements of the radiation budget to be made at many locations in the study area to see the effect of small-scale surface processes on the large-scale radiation budget. Such observations have many applications, from calibration and validation of remote sensing products to improving our understanding of surface processes that affect atmosphere-snow-ice interactions and drive feedbacks, ultimately leading to the potential to improve climate modelling of ice-covered regions of the ocean. The photographs, spectral data, and other observations allow for improved analysis of the broadband data. An example of this is shown by using the observations made during a partly cloudy day, which show erratic variations due to passing clouds, and creating a careful estimate of what the radiation budget along the observed line would have been under uniform sky conditions, clear or overcast. Other data from the setup's first deployment, in June 2011 on fast ice near Point Barrow, Alaska, are also shown; these illustrate the rapid changes of the radiation budget during a cold period that led to refreezing and new snow well into the melt season.

Literature review of elasmobranch bycatch and retention rate

To address growing concern over the effects of fisheries non-target catch on elasmobranchs worldwide, the accurate reporting of elasmobranch catch is essential. This requires data on a combination of measures, including reported landings, retained and discarded non-target catch, and post-discard survival. Identification of the factors influencing discard vs. retention is needed to improve catch estimates and to determine wasteful fishing practices. To do this we compared retention rates of elasmobranch non-target catch in a broad subset of fisheries throughout the world by taxon, fishing country, and gear. A regression tree and random forest analysis indicated that taxon was the most important determinant of retention in this dataset, but all three factors together explained 59% of the variance. Estimates of total elasmobranch removals were calculated by dividing the FAO global elasmobranch landings by average retention rates and suggest that total elasmobranch removals may exceed FAO reported landings by as much as 400%. This analysis is the first effort to directly characterize global drivers of discards for elasmobranch non-target catch. Our results highlight the importance of accurate quantification of retention and discard rates to improve assessments of the potential impacts of fisheries on these species.