Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Permutation Entropy Based Analysis of Complex Signals for Characterising Change in System Dynamics

Timely detection of sudden change in dynamics that adversely affect the performance of systems and quality of products has great scientific relevance. This work focuses on effective detection of dynamical changes of real time signals from mechanical as well as biological systems using a fast and robust technique of permutation entropy (PE). The results are used in detecting chatter onset in machine turning and identifying vocal disorders from speech signal.Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Here we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), to detect the dynamical changes in two non linear processes, turning under mechanical system and speech under biological system.Effectiveness of PE in detecting the change in dynamics in turning process from the time series generated with samples of audio and current signals is studied. Experiments are carried out on a lathe machine for sudden increase in depth of cut and continuous increase in depth of cut on mild steel work pieces keeping the speed and feed rate constant. The results are applied to detect chatter onset in machining. These results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the non linear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).PE analysis is carried out to investigate the variation in surface texture caused by chatter on the machined work piece. Statistical parameter from the optical grey level intensity histogram of laser speckle pattern recorded using a charge coupled device (CCD) camera is used to generate the time series required for PE analysis. Standard optical roughness parameter is used to confirm the results.Application of PE in identifying the vocal disorders is studied from speech signal recorded using microphone. Here analysis is carried out using speech signals of subjects with different pathological conditions and normal subjects, and the results are used for identifying vocal disorders. Standard linear technique of FFT is used to substantiate thc results.The results of PE analysis in all three cases clearly indicate that this complexity measure is sensitive to change in regularity of a signal and hence can suitably be used for detection of dynamical changes in real world systems. This work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for the benefit of advanced manufacturing process as well as clinical diagnosis in vocal disorders.

An Alternative Approach To Computer System Security Monitoring And Enhancement Through System Call Sequence Analysis

Modern computer systems are plagued with stability and security problems: applications lose data, web servers are hacked, and systems crash under heavy load. Many of these problems or anomalies arise from rare program behavior caused by attacks or errors. A substantial percentage of the web-based attacks are due to buffer overflows. Many methods have been devised to detect and prevent anomalous situations that arise from buffer overflows. The current state-of-art of anomaly detection systems is relatively primitive and mainly depend on static code checking to take care of buffer overflow attacks. For protection, Stack Guards and I-leap Guards are also used in wide varieties.This dissertation proposes an anomaly detection system, based on frequencies of system calls in the system call trace. System call traces represented as frequency sequences are profiled using sequence sets. A sequence set is identified by the starting sequence and frequencies of specific system calls. The deviations of the current input sequence from the corresponding normal profile in the frequency pattern of system calls is computed and expressed as an anomaly score. A simple Bayesian model is used for an accurate detection.Experimental results are reported which show that frequency of system calls represented using sequence sets, captures the normal behavior of programs under normal conditions of usage. This captured behavior allows the system to detect anomalies with a low rate of false positives. Data are presented which show that Bayesian Network on frequency variations responds effectively to induced buffer overflows. It can also help administrators to detect deviations in program flow introduced due to errors.

Stochastic processes and their applications semi-markov analysis of some inventory and queuing problems

This thesis analyses certain problems in Inventories and Queues. There are many situations in real-life where we encounter models as described in this thesis. It analyses in depth various models which can be applied to production, storag¢, telephone traffic, road traffic, economics, business administration, serving of customers, operations of particle counters and others. Certain models described here is not a complete representation of the true situation in all its complexity, but a simplified version amenable to analysis. While discussing the models, we show how a dependence structure can be suitably introduced in some problems of Inventories and Queues. Continuous review, single commodity inventory systems with Markov dependence structure introduced in the demand quantities, replenishment quantities and reordering levels are considered separately. Lead time is assumed to be zero in these models. An inventory model involving random lead time is also considered (Chapter-4). Further finite capacity single server queueing systems with single/bulk arrival, single/bulk services are also discussed. In some models the server is assumed to go on vacation (Chapters 7 and 8). In chapters 5 and 6 a sort of dependence is introduced in the service pattern in some queuing models.

Ultrasound Image Despeckling using Local Binary Pattern Weighted Linear Filtering

Speckle noise formed as a result of the coherent nature of ultrasound imaging affects the lesion detectability. We have proposed a new weighted linear filtering approach using Local Binary Patterns (LBP) for reducing the speckle noise in ultrasound images. The new filter achieves good results in reducing the noise without affecting the image content. The performance of the proposed filter has been compared with some of the commonly used denoising filters. The proposed filter outperforms the existing filters in terms of quantitative analysis and in edge preservation. The experimental analysis is done using various ultrasound images

Video Object Tracking And Analysis For Computer Assisted Surgery

Pedicle screw insertion technique has made revolution in the surgical treatment of spinal fractures and spinal disorders. Although X- ray fluoroscopy based navigation is popular, there is risk of prolonged exposure to X- ray radiation. Systems that have lower radiation risk are generally quite expensive. The position and orientation of the drill is clinically very important in pedicle screw fixation. In this paper, the position and orientation of the marker on the drill is determined using pattern recognition based methods, using geometric features, obtained from the input video sequence taken from CCD camera. A search is then performed on the video frames after preprocessing, to obtain the exact position and orientation of the drill. An animated graphics, showing the instantaneous position and orientation of the drill is then overlaid on the processed video for real time drill control and navigation

Sustainable Solid Waste Management Through Ecological Footprint Analysis – A Solution To Kochi City, India

Kochi, the commercial capital of Kerala, South India and second most important city next to Mumbai on the Western coast is a land having a wide variety of residential environments. Due to rapid population growth, changing lifestyles, food habits and living standards, institutional weaknesses, improper choice of technology and public apathy, the present pattern of the city can be classified as that of haphazard growth with typical problems characteristics of unplanned urban development especially in the case of solid waste management. To have a better living condition for us and our future generations, we must know where we are now and how far we need to go. We, each individual must calculate how much nature we use and compare it to how much nature we have available. This can be achieved by applying the concept of ecological footprint. Ecological footprint analysis (EFA) is a quantitative tool that represents the ecological load imposed on earth by humans in spatial terms. The aim of applying EFA to Kochi city is to quantify the consumption and waste generation of a population and to compare it with the existing biocapacity. By quantifying the ecological footprint we can formulate strategies to reduce the footprint and there by having a sustainable living. The paper discusses the various footprint components of Kochi city and in detail analyses the waste footprint of the residential areas using waste footprint analyzer. An attempt is also made to suggest some waste foot print reduction strategies thereby making the city sustainable as far as solid waste management is concerned.

Ecological Foot Print Analysis-A Sustainable Environmental Management Tool for Kochi City

Kochi, the commercial capital of Kerala and the second most important city next to Mumbai on the Western coast of India, is a land having a wide variety of residential environments. The present pattern of the city can be classified as that of haphazard growth with typical problems characteristics of unplanned urban development. This trend can be ascribed to rapid population growth, our changing lifestyles, food habits, and change in living standards, institutional weaknesses, improper choice of technology and public apathy. Ecological footprint analysis (EFA) is a quantitative tool that represents the ecological load imposed on the earth by humans in spatial terms. This paper analyses the scope of EFA as a sustainable environmental management tool for Kochi City

Sustainable Development through the Environment Management Tool Ecological Footprint Analysis – A Study in Kochi City, India

In the past, natural resources were plentiful and people were scarce. But the situation is rapidly reversing. Our challenge is to find a way to balance human consumption and nature’s limited productivity in order to ensure that our communities are sustainable locally, regionally and globally. Kochi, the commercial capital of Kerala, South India and the second most important city next to Mumbai on the Western coast is a land having a wide variety of residential environments. Due to rapid population growth, changing lifestyles, food habits and living standards, institutional weaknesses, improper choice of technology and public apathy, the present pattern of the city can be classified as that of haphazard growth with typical problems characteristics of unplanned urban development. Ecological Footprint Analysis (EFA) is physical accounting method, developed by William Rees and M. Wackernagel, focusing on land appropriation using land as its “currency”. It provides a means for measuring and communicating human induced environmental impacts upon the planet. The aim of applying EFA to Kochi city is to quantify the consumption and waste generation of a population and to compare it with the existing biocapacity. By quantifying the ecological footprint we can formulate strategies to reduce the footprint and there by having a sustainable living. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the tool Ecological Footprint Analysis and calculate and analyse the ecological footprint of the residential areas of Kochi city. The paper also discusses and analyses the waste footprint of the city. An attempt is also made to suggest strategies to reduce the footprint thereby making the city sustainable

Statistical evaluation of texture analysis from the biocrystallization method

The consumers are becoming more concerned about food quality, especially regarding how, when and where the foods are produced (Haglund et al., 1999; Kahl et al., 2004; Alföldi, et al., 2006). Therefore, during recent years there has been a growing interest in the methods for food quality assessment, especially in the picture-development methods as a complement to traditional chemical analysis of single compounds (Kahl et al., 2006). The biocrystallization as one of the picture-developing method is based on the crystallographic phenomenon that when crystallizing aqueous solutions of dihydrate CuCl2 with adding of organic solutions, originating, e.g., from crop samples, biocrystallograms are generated with reproducible crystal patterns (Kleber & Steinike-Hartung, 1959). Its output is a crystal pattern on glass plates from which different variables (numbers) can be calculated by using image analysis. However, there is a lack of a standardized evaluation method to quantify the morphological features of the biocrystallogram image. Therefore, the main sakes of this research are (1) to optimize an existing statistical model in order to describe all the effects that contribute to the experiment, (2) to investigate the effect of image parameters on the texture analysis of the biocrystallogram images, i.e., region of interest (ROI), color transformation and histogram matching on samples from the project 020E170/F financed by the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection(BMELV).The samples are wheat and carrots from controlled field and farm trials, (3) to consider the strongest effect of texture parameter with the visual evaluation criteria that have been developed by a group of researcher (University of Kassel, Germany; Louis Bolk Institute (LBI), Netherlands and Biodynamic Research Association Denmark (BRAD), Denmark) in order to clarify how the relation of the texture parameter and visual characteristics on an image is. The refined statistical model was accomplished by using a lme model with repeated measurements via crossed effects, programmed in R (version 2.1.0). The validity of the F and P values is checked against the SAS program. While getting from the ANOVA the same F values, the P values are bigger in R because of the more conservative approach. The refined model is calculating more significant P values. The optimization of the image analysis is dealing with the following parameters: ROI(Region of Interest which is the area around the geometrical center), color transformation (calculation of the 1 dimensional gray level value out of the three dimensional color information of the scanned picture, which is necessary for the texture analysis), histogram matching (normalization of the histogram of the picture to enhance the contrast and to minimize the errors from lighting conditions). The samples were wheat from DOC trial with 4 field replicates for the years 2003 and 2005, “market samples”(organic and conventional neighbors with the same variety) for 2004 and 2005, carrot where the samples were obtained from the University of Kassel (2 varieties, 2 nitrogen treatments) for the years 2004, 2005, 2006 and “market samples” of carrot for the years 2004 and 2005. The criterion for the optimization was repeatability of the differentiation of the samples over the different harvest(years). For different samples different ROIs were found, which reflect the different pictures. The best color transformation that shows efficiently differentiation is relied on gray scale, i.e., equal color transformation. The second dimension of the color transformation only appeared in some years for the effect of color wavelength(hue) for carrot treated with different nitrate fertilizer levels. The best histogram matching is the Gaussian distribution. The approach was to find a connection between the variables from textural image analysis with the different visual criteria. The relation between the texture parameters and visual evaluation criteria was limited to the carrot samples, especially, as it could be well differentiated by the texture analysis. It was possible to connect groups of variables of the texture analysis with groups of criteria from the visual evaluation. These selected variables were able to differentiate the samples but not able to classify the samples according to the treatment. Contrarily, in case of visual criteria which describe the picture as a whole there is a classification in 80% of the sample cases possible. Herewith, it clearly can find the limits of the single variable approach of the image analysis (texture analysis).

Compositional analysis of archaeological glasses

At CoDaWork'03 we presented work on the analysis of archaeological glass composi- tional data. Such data typically consist of geochemical compositions involving 10-12 variables and approximates completely compositional data if the main component, sil- ica, is included. We suggested that what has been termed `crude' principal component analysis (PCA) of standardized data often identi ed interpretable pattern in the data more readily than analyses based on log-ratio transformed data (LRA). The funda- mental problem is that, in LRA, minor oxides with high relative variation, that may not be structure carrying, can dominate an analysis and obscure pattern associated with variables present at higher absolute levels. We investigate this further using sub- compositional data relating to archaeological glasses found on Israeli sites. A simple model for glass-making is that it is based on a `recipe' consisting of two `ingredients', sand and a source of soda. Our analysis focuses on the sub-composition of components associated with the sand source. A `crude' PCA of standardized data shows two clear compositional groups that can be interpreted in terms of di erent recipes being used at di erent periods, re ected in absolute di erences in the composition. LRA analysis can be undertaken either by normalizing the data or de ning a `residual'. In either case, after some `tuning', these groups are recovered. The results from the normalized LRA are di erently interpreted as showing that the source of sand used to make the glass di ered. These results are complementary. One relates to the recipe used. The other relates to the composition (and presumed sources) of one of the ingredients. It seems to be axiomatic in some expositions of LRA that statistical analysis of compositional data should focus on relative variation via the use of ratios. Our analysis suggests that absolute di erences can also be informative

A compositional statistical analysis of capital stock

Most of economic literature has presented its analysis under the assumption of homogeneous capital stock. However, capital composition differs across countries. What has been the pattern of capital composition associated with World economies? We make an exploratory statistical analysis based on compositional data transformed by Aitchinson logratio transformations and we use tools for visualizing and measuring statistical estimators of association among the components. The goal is to detect distinctive patterns in the composition. As initial findings could be cited that: 1. Sectorial components behaved in a correlated way, building industries on one side and , in a less clear view, equipment industries on the other. 2. Full sample estimation shows a negative correlation between durable goods component and other buildings component and between transportation and building industries components. 3. Countries with zeros in some components are mainly low income countries at the bottom of the income category and behaved in a extreme way distorting main results observed in the full sample. 4. After removing these extreme cases, conclusions seem not very sensitive to the presence of another isolated cases

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the study of tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of two different types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and Mountain Rainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated with a statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a better understanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special case of segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and the change in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephras using Bayesian statistical calibration

Genomic architecture of adaptive color pattern divergence and convergence in Heliconius butterflies

Identifying the genetic changes driving adaptive variation in natural populations is key to understanding the origins of biodiversity. The mosaic of mimetic wing patterns in Heliconius butterflies makes an excellent system for exploring adaptive variation using next-generation sequencing. In this study, we use a combination of techniques to annotate the genomic interval modulating red color pattern variation, identify a narrow region responsible for adaptive divergence and convergence in Heliconius wing color patterns, and explore the evolutionary history of these adaptive alleles. We use whole genome resequencing from four hybrid zones between divergent color pattern races of Heliconius erato and two hybrid zones of the co-mimic Heliconius melpomene to examine genetic variation across 2.2 Mb of a partial reference sequence. In the intergenic region near optix, the gene previously shown to be responsible for the complex red pattern variation in Heliconius, population genetic analyses identify a shared 65-kb region of divergence that includes several sites perfectly associated with phenotype within each species. This region likely contains multiple cis-regulatory elements that control discrete expression domains of optix. The parallel signatures of genetic differentiation in H. erato and H. melpomene support a shared genetic architecture between the two distantly related co-mimics; however, phylogenetic analysis suggests mimetic patterns in each species evolved independently. Using a combination of next-generation sequencing analyses, we have refined our understanding of the genetic architecture of wing pattern variation in Heliconius and gained important insights into the evolution of novel adaptive phenotypes in natural populations.