Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.

Application and Development Trend of Integrated Supply Chain in China

Importing integrated supply chains have changed Chinese logistic from simplex freight to the process of product of production、circulation and consumption of logistic system. Different modal of integrated supply chain apply in the different companies, bring activity and efficiency integrated supply chain in China. The trend of Chinese integrated supply chain in the future will stress on e-commerce and customer service, and combined Chinese own logistic system to enlarge Chinese logistic, which will more international and world wild.

Globalization and the Evolution of the Supply Chain: who gains and who loses?

This paper focuses on two distinct facets of globalization: the decrease in the trade costs of goods and the decline of communication costs between headquarters and production facilities within firms. When the unskilled have about the same wage in the two regions, the decrease of these costs fosters the gradual agglomeration of plants in the core region accommodating the headquarters. By contrast, when the wage gap is significant, the process of integration eventually triggers the re-location of plants into the periphery. In particular, when the process of re-location is driven by falling communication costs, the welfare of all workers living in the core goes down whereas the welfare of those who reside in the periphery rises.

Promoting institutional connectivity in the Asia Pacific region : a study of supply chain and trade in services

This paper analyzes "institutional connectivity", or the degree of seamless trade in services centering on the distribution sector. Foreign equity participation in mode 3 (commercial presence) of trade in services and business firms’ investment performance has been studied closely. Net economic benefits of transparent institutional connectivity in the wholesale sector have also been revealed statistically in the case of Japan’s bilateral FTAs with other APEC members. Given these results, APEC could work on establishing its own harmonized "service trade commitment table" with only the foreign capital participation as its simple policy restriction. This would surely enhance an APEC-wide, institutional supply chain connectivity.

Adoption of ISO9001 through supply chain in Vietnam : impacts of FDI and product-related environmental regulation

The objective of the present study is to examine the determinants of ISO 9001 certification, focusing on the effect of Product-related Environmental Regulations on Chemicals (PRERCs) and FDI using the answers to several questions in our Vietnam survey conducted from December 2011 to January 2012. Our findings suggest that PRERCs may help with the improvement in quality control of Vietnamese firms. If Vietnamese manufacturing firms with ISO 9001 certification are more likely to adopt ISO 14001, as well as firms in developed countries, our results indicate that the European chemical regulations may assist in the reduction of various environmental impacts in Vietnam. In addition, we found that FDI promotes the adoption of ISO 9001. If FDI firms in Vietnam certify ISO 14001 after the adoption of ISO 9001, as in the case of Malaysia and the developed economies, FDI firms may also be able to improve environmental performance as a result of ISO 14001.

Social issues in sustainable supply chain networks: state of the art and further research directions

The study of supply networks sustainability is a field with a long path behind. Nonetheless, most studies to date are focused on the environmental sub dimension of sustainability, while the social perspective in supply chain networks research still shows a potential for pioneering contri butions. Moreover, from the development standpoint we have observed a paradigm shift advancing from a narrow concept of development, centered on purely economic dimensions, towards more refined issues such as inclusive business, shared value or poverty footprint, all of which are highly related to supply chain activities. In this paper we present a review of the current state of the art on social sustainability of supply chains and we identify the main existing trends in this field. After conducting this study, we can state that a new sphere of knowledge is emerging at the interface between sustainable supply chain networks and development research. The academic community is called to play an important dovetailing role in this scenario by advancing both conceptual and methodological contributions.

Assessment of irrigators’ preferences for different water supply risk management tools: option contract and insurance.

Irrigators face the risk of not having enough water to meet their crops’ demand. There are different mechanisms to cope with this risk, including water markets (option contracts) or insurance. A farmer will purchase them when the expected utility change derived from the tool is positive. This paper presents a theoretical assessment of the farmer’s expected utility under two different option contracts, a drought insurance and a combination of an option contract and the insurance. We analyze the conditions that determine farmer’s reference for one instrument or the other and perform a numerical application that is relevant for a Spanish region.

Coordination mechanisms and software in industrial networks - a literature review

This paper groups recent supply chain management research focused on organizational design and its software support. The classification encompasses criteria related to research methodology and content. Empirical studies from management science focus on network types and organizational fit. Novel planning algorithms and innovative coordination schemes are developed mostly in the field of operations research in order to propose new software features. Operations and production management realize cost-benefit analysis of IT software implementations. The success of software solutions for network coordination depends strongly on the fit of three dimensions: network configuration, coordination scheme and software functionality. This paper concludes with proposals for future research on unaddressed issues within and among the identified research streams.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Implementation Feasibility of a Digital Nervous System for the Construction Industry: For Efficient and Effective Information Management across the Project Lifecycle

The construction industry has long been considered as highly fragmented and non-collaborative industry. This fragmentation sprouted from complex and unstructured traditional coordination processes and information exchanges amongst all parties involved in a construction project. This nature coupled with risk and uncertainty has pushed clients and their supply chain to search for new ways of improving their business process to deliver better quality and high performing product. This research will closely investigate the need to implement a Digital Nervous System (DNS), analogous to a biological nervous system, on the flow and management of digital information across the project lifecycle. This will be through direct examination of the key processes and information produced in a construction project and how a DNS can provide a well-integrated flow of digital information throughout the project lifecycle. This research will also investigate how a DNS can create a tight digital feedback loop that enables the organisation to sense, react and adapt to changing project conditions. A Digital Nervous System is a digital infrastructure that provides a well-integrated flow of digital information to the right part of the organisation at the right time. It provides the organisation with the relevant and up-to-date information it needs, for critical project issues, to aid in near real-time decision-making. Previous literature review and survey questionnaires were used in this research to collect and analyse data about information management problems of the industry – e.g. disruption and discontinuity of digital information flow due to interoperability issues, disintegration/fragmentation of the adopted digital solutions and paper-based transactions. Results analysis revealed efficient and effective information management requires the creation and implementation of a DNS.

The Medici Bank : its organization, management, operations and decline.

"With the exception of the appendixes and a few pages of revised text...a reprint of...three articles...published in the Journal of economic history."