909 resultados para Nonparametric Bayes
Resumo:
Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of the enantiomers of citalopram (CIT), its N-demethylated metabolite demethylcitalopram (DCIT) and its deaminated metabolite citalopram propionic acid derivative (CIT-PROP) were measured in plasma and CSF in 22 depressed patients after a 4-week treatment with 40 mg/d citalopram, which was preceded by a 1-week washout period. CSF 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA) and homovanillic acid (HVA) were measured at baseline and after the 4-week CIT medication period. Patients were assessed clinically, using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (21-item HAM-D): at baseline and then at weekly intervals. CSF concentrations of S-CIT and R-CIT were 10.6 +/- 4.3 and 20.9 +/- 6 ng/mL, respectively, and their CSF/plasma ratios were 52% +/- 9% and 48% +/- 6%, respectively. The CIT treatment resulted in a significant decrease (28%) of 5-HIAA (P < 0.0001) and a significant increase (41%) of HVA in the CSF. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of plasma and CSF CIT enantiomers and its metabolites on CSF monoamine metabolites and clinical response. There were 10 responders as defined by a > or =50% decrease of the HAM-D score (DeltaHAM-D) after the 4-week treatment. DeltaHAM-D correlated (Spearman) significantly with CSF S-CIT (r = - 0.483, P < 0.05), CSF S-CIT-PROP (r = -0.543, P = 0.01) (a metabolite formed from CIT by monoamine oxidase [MAO]) and 5-HIAA decrease (Delta5-HIAA) (r = 0.572, P = 0.01). The demonstrated correlations between pharmacokinetic parameters and the clinical outcome as well as 5-HIAA changes indicate that monitoring of plasma S-CIT, CSF S-CIT and CSF S-CIT-PROP may be of clinical relevance.
Resumo:
The fire ant Solenopsis invicta is a significant pest that was inadvertently introduced into the southern United States almost a century ago and more recently into California and other regions of the world. An assessment of genetic variation at a diverse set of molecular markers in 2144 fire ant colonies from 75 geographic sites worldwide revealed that at least nine separate introductions of S. invicta have occurred into newly invaded areas and that the main southern U.S. population is probably the source of all but one of these introductions. The sole exception involves a putative serial invasion from the southern United States to California to Taiwan. These results illustrate in stark fashion a severe negative consequence of an increasingly massive and interconnected global trade and travel system.
Resumo:
O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar uma análise bayesiana de modelos auto-regressivos de ordem p, AR(p), para dados em painel referentes às diferenças esperadas nas progênies (DEP) de touros da raça Nelore publicados de 2000 a 2006. Neste trabalho, adotou-se o modelo AR(2), indicado pela análise prévia da função de autocorrelação parcial. As comparações entre as prioris, realizadas por meio do Fator de Bayes e do Pseudo-Fator de Bayes, indicaram superioridade da priori independente t-Student multivariada - Gama inversa em relação à priori hierárquica Normal multivariada - Gama inversa e a priori de Jeffreys. Os resultados indicam a importância de se dividir os animais em grupos homogêneos de acordo com a acurácia. Constatou-se também que, em média, a eficiência de previsão dos valores de DEP para um ano futuro foi próxima de 80%.
Resumo:
The molecular mechanisms that control how progenitors generate distinct subtypes of neurons, and how undifferentiated neurons acquire their specific identity during corticogenesis, are increasingly understood. However, whether postmitotic neurons can change their identity at late stages of differentiation remains unknown. To study this question, we developed an electrochemical in vivo gene delivery method to rapidly manipulate gene expression specifically in postmitotic neurons. Using this approach, we found that the molecular identity, morphology, physiology and functional input-output connectivity of layer 4 mouse spiny neurons could be specifically reprogrammed during the first postnatal week by ectopic expression of the layer 5B output neuron-specific transcription factor Fezf2. These findings reveal a high degree of plasticity in the identity of postmitotic neocortical neurons and provide a proof of principle for postnatal re-engineering of specific neural microcircuits in vivo.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To assess the properties of various indicators aimed at monitoring the impact on the activity and patient outcome of a bed closure in a surgical intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: Comparison before and after the intervention. SETTING: A surgical ICU at a university hospital. PATIENTS: All patients admitted to the unit over two periods of 10 months. INTERVENTION: Closure of one bed out of 17. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Activity and outcome indicators in the ICU and the structures upstream from it (emergency department, operative theater, recovery room) and downstream from it (intermediate care units). After the bed closure, the monthly medians of admitted patients and ICU hospital days increased from 107 (interquartile range 94-112) to 113 (106-121, P=0.07) and from 360 (325-443) to 395 (345-436, P=0.48), respectively, along with the linear trend observed in our institution. All indicators of workload, patient severity, and outcome remained stable except for SAPS II score, emergency admissions, and ICU readmissions, which increased not only transiently but also on a mid-term basis (10 months), indicating that the process of patient care delivery was no longer predictable. CONCLUSIONS: Health care systems, including ICUs, are extraordinary flexible, and can adapt to multiple external constraints without altering commonly used activity and outcome indicators. It is therefore necessary to set up multiple indicators to be able to reliably monitor the impact of external interventions and intervene rapidly when the system is no longer under control.
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to find whether there were interprofessional differences in specific elements of communication with terminal cancer patients and decision-making processes that concern such patients. Given that interdisciplinary team work is one of the basic values in palliative care, if there are conflicting views between professions on such important issues it is most important to know about these and to understand them. A questionnaire utilized in an earlier survey of palliative care physicians and addressing their attitudes to and beliefs about specific elements of communication and decision making was sent to a sample of palliative care nurses working in the same regions, i.e. the French-speaking parts of Switzerland, Belgium and France. After a second mailing (reminder), 135 of the 163 questionnaires (83%) were returned. There was general agreement between nurses and physicians on questions dealing with perceptions of patients' knowledge of their diagnosis and stage of disease, patients' need for information, "do not resuscitate" orders and ethical principles in decision-making processes. Statistically significant, but small, differences between professional groups were only observed for a minority of the questions. Interprofessional differences in specific elements of communication with terminal cancer patients and decision-making processes affecting these patients were not so marked that they could be called "conflicting interprofessional views."
Resumo:
Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0
Resumo:
O objetivo deste trabalho foi propor uma abordagem bayesiana do método de Eberhart & Russell para avaliar a adaptabilidade e da estabilidade fenotípica de genótipos de alfafa (Medicago sativa), bem como avaliar a eficiência da utilização de distribuições a priori informativas e pouco informativas. Foram utilizados dados de um experimento em blocos ao acaso, no qual se avaliou a produção de massa de matéria seca de 92 genótipos. A metodologia bayesiana proposta foi implementada no programa livre R por meio da função MCMCregress do pacote MCMCpack. Para representar as distribuições a priori pouco informativas, utilizaram-se distribuições de probabilidade com grande variância; e, para representar distribuições a priori informativas, adotou-se o conceito de meta-análise, que se caracteriza pela utilização de informações provenientes de trabalhos anteriores. A comparação entre as distribuições a priori foi realizada por meio do fator de Bayes, com a função BayesFactor do pacote MCMCpack, que indicou a priori informativa como a mais adequada nas condições deste estudo.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Only about half the patients with xanthelasma are hyperlipidemic. The clinical significance of xanthelasma as a marker of cardiovascular disease is not yet well defined. OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with normolipidemic and hyperlipidemic xanthelasma. METHODS: Carotid ultrasonography (7 MHz using B-mode images, Advanced Technology Laboratories) was used to detect carotid plaques and measure the intima-media thickness (IMT) of the common carotid arteries. Seventeen patients with normolipidemic and hyperlipidemic xanthelasma were examined and compared with 21 age-matched normal subjects. RESULTS: The risk of cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in patients with xanthelasma. Carotid plaques were more frequent in patients with xanthelasma than in controls (64.7% and 23.8%, respectively; P = 0.020), and IMT was significantly higher (mean +/- SD: 1.1 +/- 0.1 and 0.6 +/- 0.2 mm, respectively; P < 0.001). The difference of carotid IMT between normolipidemic xanthelasma and hyperlipidemic xanthelasma was not statistically different (mean +/- SD: 1.1 +/- 0.1 and 1.1 +/- 0.2 mm, respectively; P = 0.577). CONCLUSION: Premature carotid atherosclerosis is observed in patients with normolipidemic and hyperlipidemic xanthelasma. Patients with xanthelasma should be considered to have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease independently to the level of plasma lipids. A larger number of patients is, however, needed to confirm this preliminary study.
Resumo:
Land use/cover classification is one of the most important applications in remote sensing. However, mapping accurate land use/cover spatial distribution is a challenge, particularly in moist tropical regions, due to the complex biophysical environment and limitations of remote sensing data per se. This paper reviews experiments related to land use/cover classification in the Brazilian Amazon for a decade. Through comprehensive analysis of the classification results, it is concluded that spatial information inherent in remote sensing data plays an essential role in improving land use/cover classification. Incorporation of suitable textural images into multispectral bands and use of segmentation‑based method are valuable ways to improve land use/cover classification, especially for high spatial resolution images. Data fusion of multi‑resolution images within optical sensor data is vital for visual interpretation, but may not improve classification performance. In contrast, integration of optical and radar data did improve classification performance when the proper data fusion method was used. Among the classification algorithms available, the maximum likelihood classifier is still an important method for providing reasonably good accuracy, but nonparametric algorithms, such as classification tree analysis, have the potential to provide better results. However, they often require more time to achieve parametric optimization. Proper use of hierarchical‑based methods is fundamental for developing accurate land use/cover classification, mainly from historical remotely sensed data.
Resumo:
This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.
Resumo:
This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the design of transmit prefiltering matrices in closed-loop schemes robust to channel estimation errors. The algorithms are derived for a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system. Two different optimizationcriteria are analyzed: the minimization of the mean square error and the minimization of the bit error rate. In both cases, the transmitter design is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the conditional mean of the channel response, given the channel estimate. The performance of the proposed algorithms is analyzed,and their relationship with existing algorithms is indicated. As withother previously proposed solutions, the minimum bit error rate algorithmconverges to the open-loop transmission scheme for very poor CSI estimates.
Resumo:
Resumo:O objetivo deste trabalho foi selecionar, sob a perspectiva bayesiana, genótipos de feijão-caupi (Vigna unguiculata) que reúnam alta adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípicas, no Estado do Mato Grosso do Sul. Foram utilizados dados de quatro experimentos, conduzidos em delineamento de blocos ao acaso, em que a produtividade de grãos de 20 genótipos de feijão-caupi semiprostrado foi avaliada. Para representar as distribuições a priori pouco informativas, utilizaram-se distribuições de probabilidade com grande variância; e, para representar distribuições a priori informativas, adotou-se o conceito de metanálise, com uso de informações de trabalhos anteriores. A comparação entre as distribuições a priori foi realizada por meio do fator de Bayes. A abordagem bayesiana proporciona maior acurácia na seleção de genótipos de feijão-caupi semiprostrado, com elevadas adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípicas avaliadas por meio da metodologia de Eberhart & Russell. Com base nas prioris informativas, os genótipos MNC99-507G-4, TE97-309G-24, MNC99-542F-7 e BR 17-Gurguéia são classificados como de alta adaptabilidade a ambientes favoráveis. Já os genótipos TE96-290-12G, MNC99-510F-16, MNC99-508G-1, MNC99-541F-21, MNC99-542F-5 e MNC99-547F-2 apresentam alta adaptabilidade a ambientes desfavoráveis.