Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Rhodnius barretti, a new species of Triatominae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) from western Amazonia

Rhodnius barretti , a new triatomine species, is described based on adult specimens collected in rainforest environments within the Napo ecoregion of western Amazonia (Colombia and Ecuador). R. barretti resembles Rhodnius robustus s.l. , but mitochondrial cytochrome b gene sequences reveal that it is a strongly divergent member of the “robustus lineage”, i.e., basal to the clade encompassing Rhodnius nasutus , Rhodnius neglectus , Rhodnius prolixus and five members of the R. robustus species complex. Morphometric analyses also reveal consistent divergence from R. robustus s.l. , including head and, as previously shown, wing shape and the length ratios of some anatomical structures. R. barretti occurs, often at high densities, in Attalea butyracea and Oenocarpus bataua palms. It is strikingly aggressive and adults may invade houses flying from peridomestic palms. R. barretti must therefore be regarded as a potential Trypanosoma cruzi vector in the Napo ecoregion, where Chagas disease is endemic.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) the new parameter of 2D texture analysis for the evaluation of 3D bone micro architecture status

X-ray is a technology that is used for numerous applications in the medical field. The process of X-ray projection gives a 2-dimension (2D) grey-level texture from a 3- dimension (3D) object. Until now no clear demonstration or correlation has positioned the 2D texture analysis as a valid indirect evaluation of the 3D microarchitecture. TBS is a new texture parameter based on the measure of the experimental variogram. TBS evaluates the variation between 2D image grey-levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing correlations between 3D bone microarchitecture parameters - evaluated from μCT reconstructions - and the TBS value, calculated on 2D projected images. 30 dried human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a micro-scanner (eXplorer Locus, GE) at isotropic resolution of 93 μm. 3D vertebral body models were used. The following 3D microarchitecture parameters were used: Bone volume fraction (BV/TV), Trabecular thickness (TbTh), trabecular space (TbSp), trabecular number (TbN) and connectivity density (ConnD). 3D/2D projections has been done by taking into account the Beer-Lambert Law at X-ray energy of 50, 100, 150 KeV. TBS was assessed on 2D projected images. Correlations between TBS and the 3D microarchitecture parameters were evaluated using a linear regression analysis. Paired T-test is used to assess the X-ray energy effects on TBS. Multiple linear regressions (backward) were used to evaluate relationships between TBS and 3D microarchitecture parameters using a bootstrap process. BV/TV of the sample ranged from 18.5 to 37.6% with an average value at 28.8%. Correlations' analysis showedthat TBSwere strongly correlatedwith ConnD(0.856≤r≤0.862; p<0.001),with TbN (0.805≤r≤0.810; p<0.001) and negatively with TbSp (−0.714≤r≤−0.726; p<0.001), regardless X-ray energy. Results show that lower TBS values are related to "degraded" microarchitecture, with low ConnD, low TbN and a high TbSp. The opposite is also true. X-ray energy has no effect onTBS neither on the correlations betweenTBS and the 3Dmicroarchitecture parameters. In this study, we demonstrated that TBS was significantly correlated with 3D microarchitecture parameters ConnD and TbN, and negatively with TbSp, no matter what X-ray energy has been used. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ECTS 2011. Disclosure of interest: None declared.

The remarkable journey of adaptation of the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite to New World anopheline mosquitoes

Plasmodium falciparum originated in Africa, dispersed around the world as a result of human migration and had to adapt to several different indigenous anopheline mosquitoes. Anophelines from the New World are evolutionary distant form African ones and this probably resulted in a more stringent selection of Plasmodium as it adapted to these vectors. It is thought that Plasmodium has been genetically selected by some anopheline species through unknown mechanisms. The mosquito immune system can greatly limit infection and P. falciparum evolved a strategy to evade these responses, at least in part mediated by Pfs47, a highly polymorphic gene. We propose that adaptation of P. falciparum to new vectors may require evasion of their immune system. Parasites with a Pfs47 haplotype compatible with the indigenous mosquito vector would be able to survive and be transmitted. The mosquito antiplasmodial response could be an important determinant of P. falciparum population structure and could affect malaria transmission in the Americas.

Construction of three new Gateway&#174; expression plasmids for Trypanosoma cruzi

We present here three expression plasmids for Trypanosoma cruzi adapted to the Gateway® recombination cloning system. Two of these plasmids were designed to express trypanosomal proteins fused to a double tag for tandem affinity purification (TAPtag). The TAPtag and Gateway® cassette were introduced into an episomal (pTEX) and an integrative (pTREX) plasmid. Both plasmids were assayed by introducing green fluorescent protein (GFP) by recombination and the integrity of the double-tagged protein was determined by western blotting and immunofluorescence microscopy. The third Gateway adapted vector assayed was the inducible pTcINDEX. When tested with GFP, pTcINDEX-GW showed a good response to tetracycline, being less leaky than its precursor (pTcINDEX).

An overview of malaria transmission from the perspective of Amazon Anopheles vectors

In the Americas, areas with a high risk of malaria transmission are mainly located in the Amazon Forest, which extends across nine countries. One keystone step to understanding the Plasmodium life cycle in Anopheles species from the Amazon Region is to obtain experimentally infected mosquito vectors. Several attempts to colonise Ano- pheles species have been conducted, but with only short-lived success or no success at all. In this review, we review the literature on malaria transmission from the perspective of its Amazon vectors. Currently, it is possible to develop experimental Plasmodium vivax infection of the colonised and field-captured vectors in laboratories located close to Amazonian endemic areas. We are also reviewing studies related to the immune response to P. vivax infection of Anopheles aquasalis, a coastal mosquito species. Finally, we discuss the importance of the modulation of Plasmodium infection by the vector microbiota and also consider the anopheline genomes. The establishment of experimental mosquito infections with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium yoelii and Plasmodium berghei parasites that could provide interesting models for studying malaria in the Amazonian scenario is important. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in the development of the parasites in New World vectors is crucial in order to better determine the interaction process and vectorial competence.

New scenarios of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in the Orinoco region of Colombia

Rhodnius prolixus, a blood-sucking triatomine with domiciliary anthropophilic habits, is the main vector of Chagas disease. The current paradigm of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in Columbia includes a sylvatic and domiciliary cycle co-existing with domestic and sylvatic populations of reservoirs. The aim of this study is to evaluate the population densities and relative abundance of triatomines and mammals that may be involved in the sylvatic cycle of Chagas disease to clarify the epidemiological scenario in an endemic area in the province of Casanare. Insect vectors on Attalea butyracea palms were captured using both manual searches and bait traps. The capture of mammals was performed using Sherman and Tomahawk traps. We report an infestation index of 88.5% in 148 palms and an index of T. cruzi natural infection of 60.2% in 269 dissected insects and 11.9% in 160 captured mammals. High population densities of triatomines were observed in the sylvatic environment and there was a high relative abundance of reservoirs in the area, suggesting a stable enzootic cycle. We found no evidence of insect domiciliation. Taken together, these observations suggest that eco-epidemiological factors shape the transmission dynamics of T. cruzi, creating diverse scenarios of disease transmission.

Intrusive versus domiciliated triatomines and the challenge of adapting vector control practices against Chagas disease

Chagas disease prevention remains mostly based on triatomine vector control to reduce or eliminate house infestation with these bugs. The level of adaptation of triatomines to human housing is a key part of vector competence and needs to be precisely evaluated to allow for the design of effective vector control strategies. In this review, we examine how the domiciliation/intrusion level of different triatomine species/populations has been defined and measured and discuss how these concepts may be improved for a better understanding of their ecology and evolution, as well as for the design of more effective control strategies against a large variety of triatomine species. We suggest that a major limitation of current criteria for classifying triatomines into sylvatic, intrusive, domiciliary and domestic species is that these are essentially qualitative and do not rely on quantitative variables measuring population sustainability and fitness in their different habitats. However, such assessments may be derived from further analysis and modelling of field data. Such approaches can shed new light on the domiciliation process of triatomines and may represent a key tool for decision-making and the design of vector control interventions.

Modulation of Trypanosoma cruzi-specific T-cell responses after chemotherapy for chronic Chagas disease

The aim of this review is to describe the contributions of the knowledge of T-cell responses to the understanding of the physiopathology and the responsiveness to etiological treatment during the chronic phase of Chagas disease.T-helper (Th)1 and interleukin (IL)-10Trypanosoma cruzi-specific T-cells have been linked to the asymptomatic phase or to severe clinical forms of the disease, respectively orvice versa, depending on the T. cruziantigen source, the patient’s location and the performed immunological assays. Parasite-specific T-cell responses are modulated after benznidazole (BZ) treatment in chronically T. cruzi-infected subjects in association with a significant decrease in T. cruzi-specific antibodies. Accumulating evidence has indicated that treatment efficacy during experimental infection with T. cruziresults from the combined action of BZ and the activation of appropriate immune responses in the host. However, strong support of this interaction in T. cruzi-infected humans remains lacking. Overall, the quality of T-cell responses might be a key factor in not only disease evolution, but also chemotherapy responsiveness. Immunological parameters are potential indicators of treatment response regardless of achievement of cure. Providing tools to monitor and provide early predictions of treatment success will allow the development of new therapeutic options.

New classification of natural breeding habitats for Neotropical anophelines in the Yanomami Indian Reserve, Amazon Region, Brazil and a new larval sampling methodology

Here we present the first in a series of articles about the ecology of immature stages of anophelines in the Brazilian Yanomami area. We propose a new larval habitat classification and a new larval sampling methodology. We also report some preliminary results illustrating the applicability of the methodology based on data collected in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest in a longitudinal study of two remote Yanomami communities, Parafuri and Toototobi. In these areas, we mapped and classified 112 natural breeding habitats located in low-order river systems based on their association with river flood pulses, seasonality and exposure to sun. Our classification rendered seven types of larval habitats: lakes associated with the river, which are subdivided into oxbow lakes and nonoxbow lakes, flooded areas associated with the river, flooded areas not associated with the river, rainfall pools, small forest streams, medium forest streams and rivers. The methodology for larval sampling was based on the accurate quantification of the effective breeding area, taking into account the area of the perimeter and subtypes of microenvironments present per larval habitat type using a laser range finder and a small portable inflatable boat. The new classification and new sampling methodology proposed herein may be useful in vector control programs.

Modulation of TCR avidity of primary HIV-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses by early and potent antiviral therapy responses

Background: CD8 T-cells play a critical role in antiviral immunity. However, mechanisms of virus control and immune correlates of protection are still not fully understood. Among other factors, TCR avidity (antigen sensitivity) is thought to play a critical role. Whereas there is a large consensus that high TCR avidity T-cell responses are correlated to higher efficacy against cancer and acute viral infections, it may be not the case in chronic persistent viral infections. Methods: TCR avidity (measured by the effect concentration 50% [EC50]) of HIV-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses directed against optimal epitopes was investigated in different cohorts of HIV-1- infected subjects (n¼114) including early acute and chronic (progressive and non-progressive) HIV-1-infection. Overall, TCR avidity was investigated in 245 HIV-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses. The relationships between TCR avidity, T-cell differentiation and functional profile including cytokine secretion, proliferation and cytotoxic potential (determined by polychromatic flow cytometry) were analyzed. Results: HIV-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses from patients with acute infection had significantly lower TCR avidity as compared to patients with chronic (progressive or non-progressive) HIVinfection (P¼0.03 and 0.003, respectively). These differences remained significant when the analyses were restricted to common epitopes (same epitopes restricted by the same class I HLA). Interestingly, some patients treated during acute infection underwent spontaneous treatment interruption. Re-exposure to high viral load induced two major effects: a) the increase in TCR avidity of pre-existing high avidity (EC50<0.01) T-cell responses (P<0.02) and b) the generation of new T-cell responses with higher TCR avidity as compared to the average pre-existing T-cell responses. Conclusion: These results suggest that high TCR avidity T-cell responses are selected during the course of HIV-1 infection and that one of the potential driving mechanisms is continuous exposure to HIV-1 antigens. These results advance our understanding of the relationship between TCR avidity and Ag exposure of antiviral memory CD8 T-cells.

One- and two-center physical space partitioning of the energy in the density functional theory

A conceptually new approach is introduced for the decomposition of the molecular energy calculated at the density functional theory level of theory into sum of one- and two-atomic energy components, and is realized in the "fuzzy atoms" framework. (Fuzzy atoms mean that the three-dimensional physical space is divided into atomic regions having no sharp boundaries but exhibiting a continuous transition from one to another.) The new scheme uses the new concept of "bond order density" to calculate the diatomic exchange energy components and gives them unexpectedly close to the values calculated by the exact (Hartree-Fock) exchange for the same Kohn-Sham orbitals

Principal components of functional connectivity: A new approach to study dynamic brain connectivity during rest.

Functional connectivity (FC) as measured by correlation between fMRI BOLD time courses of distinct brain regions has revealed meaningful organization of spontaneous fluctuations in the resting brain. However, an increasing amount of evidence points to non-stationarity of FC; i.e., FC dynamically changes over time reflecting additional and rich information about brain organization, but representing new challenges for analysis and interpretation. Here, we propose a data-driven approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) to reveal hidden patterns of coherent FC dynamics across multiple subjects. We demonstrate the feasibility and relevance of this new approach by examining the differences in dynamic FC between 13 healthy control subjects and 15 minimally disabled relapse-remitting multiple sclerosis patients. We estimated whole-brain dynamic FC of regionally-averaged BOLD activity using sliding time windows. We then used PCA to identify FC patterns, termed "eigenconnectivities", that reflect meaningful patterns in FC fluctuations. We then assessed the contributions of these patterns to the dynamic FC at any given time point and identified a network of connections centered on the default-mode network with altered contribution in patients. Our results complement traditional stationary analyses, and reveal novel insights into brain connectivity dynamics and their modulation in a neurodegenerative disease.

Low dispersing species : population genetic processes in space and time : the genus "Trochulus" (Gastropoda: Hygromiidae) as a case study

RÉSUMÉ Une espèce est rarement composée d'une population unique. Parce que les individus ont des capacités de dispersion limitées et que les paysages sont des mosaïques d'habitats, la plupart des espèces sont plutôt composées de sous-populations connectées par la migration. Cette variation spatiale influence directement la distribution de la variabilité génétique dans et entre les populations. Durant ce travail, nous avons abordé certains des processus populationnels qui ont joué un rôle supposé dans l'apparition de nouvelles espèces au sein du genre Trochulus. Plus précisément, nous avons tenté d'évaluer les impacts respectifs de l'isolement passé (facteurs historiques) et présent (facteurs locaux). Nous avons d'abord pu montrer que les faibles capacités de dispersion des escargots terrestres ont directement influencé leur histoire évolutive à toutes les échelles spatiales et temporelles. En réduisant l'effet homogénéisant de la migration, une faible dispersion maintient dans les populations les traces génétiques d'évènements passés. A l'échelle de la distribution globale de Trochulus villosus, ces traces ont permis de reconstruire une histoire faite d'isolements et d'expansions de populations. En combinant des données génétiques avec une modélisation de la niche climatique passée, il a été possible de proposer un scénario significativement meilleur que toutes les hypothèses alternatives que nous avons testées. A l'échelle locale par contre, l'héritage historique est difficile à distinguer de la dynamique actuelle. Ce fut le cas des lignées mitochondriales du complexe sericeus-hispidus : les deux principales lignées étaient phylogénétiquement éloignées, avaient eu des démographies passées différentes et corrélaient avec des différences morphologiques. D'un autre côté, le flux de gène nucléaire était fort, contredisant l'idée de deux espèces cryptiques isolées reproductivement. Pour pouvoir conclure à la présence ou non de deux espèces, il nous a manqué des informations locales sur la dynamique des populations et les conditions écologiques que l'on trouve dans la région d'étude. Enfin, nous avons pu souligner que la connectivité entre populations d'escargots est soumise à la qualité des habitats et à leur organisation spatiale. Les escargots sont dépendants d'un habitat et s'y adaptent, comme l'indiquent la présence de «poils » uniquement sur la coquille d'espèces vivant dans des habitats humides ou la corrélation entre morphologie et habitat au sein du complexe sericeus-hispidus. Logiquement donc, les escargots migrent préférentiellement au travers d'habitats favorables comme l'a montré la réduction de flux de gènes au travers des prairies chez T. villosus (une espèce forestière). De ces données, nous pouvons supposer que les populations d'escargots en particulier, et des espèces à faible dispersion en général, ont de fortes chances d'être affectées par les changements climatiques, avec de probables implications pour leurs histoires évolutives. SUMMARY : Species rarely consists in a single population. Because individuals have limited dispersal abilities, because landscapes are habitat patchworks, most species are made of several subpopulations connected by migration. This spatial variation has consequences on the distribution of genetic diversity within and between populations, creating a structure among the populations. During the present work, we investigated some of the population processes assumed to have played an important role on the speciation within the genus Trochulus. More specifically, we questioned the respective impacts of past (historical factors) or present (local factors) population isolations. We first could show that the poor dispersal abilities of land snails have had profound impacts on their evolutionary histories at all spatial and temporal scales. Low dispersal maintains a strong signature of past events in the populations by minimising the homogenising effects of geneflow. At the scale of Trochulus villosus global distribution, they allowed to retrieve the detailed history of this species population isolations and expansions. Combining a large genetic dataset with paleo-climatic niche modelling ended up with a historical scenario significantly better than all traditional alternatives we tested. At local scale on the contrary, past events become difficult to tease apart from ongoing processes. This was the case for the divergent mitochondria) lineages within the sericeus-hispidus complex: the two principal lineages appeared to be phylogenetically distant, to have experienced different demographic histories and to correlate with morphological differences. On the other hand, nuclear (present day) geneflow was high, contradicting the idea of two reproductively isolated cryptic species. Information on the local population dynamics and environmental conditions are lacking to be able to decide whether past isolation has indeed resulted here in new species. Finally, we emphasised the importance of the habitat types present in a landscape as well as their spatial organisation for the population connectivity of land snails. These species are tightly dependent on a habitat and adapt to it as shown by thé occurrence of hair-like structures only in species living in humid environments or by the correlation between shell morphology and habitat in the sericeus-hispidus complex. As a result, land snails preferentially migrate through favourable habitats: Trochulus villosus, a forest species, had its geneflow significantly reduced across meadows. From these data, we can hypothesise that the populations of land snails in particular and of low dispersing species in general are likely to be strongly affected by the ongoing climate changes, with potential major consequences on their evolutionary histories.

The Smartcanula: a new tool for remote access perfusion in limited access cardiac surgery.

Devices for venous cannulation have seen significant progress over time: the original, rigid steel cannulas have evolved toward flexible plastic cannulas with wire support that prevents kinking, very thin walled wire wound cannulas allowing for percutaneous application, and all sorts of combinations. In contrast to all these rectilinear venous cannula designs, which present the same cross-sectional area over their entire intravascular path, the smartcanula concept of "collapsed insertion and expansion in situ" is the logical next step for venous access. Automatically adjusting cross-sectional area up to a pre-determined diameter or the vessel lumen provides optimal flow and ease of use for both, insertion and removal. Smartcanula performance was assessed in a small series of patients (76 +/- 17 kg) undergoing redo procedures. The calculated target pump flow (2.4 L/min/m2) was 4.42 +/- 61 L/ min. Mean pump flow achieved during cardiopulmonary bypass was 4.84 +/- 87 L/min or 110% of the target. Reduced atrial chatter, kink resistance in situ, and improved blood drainage despite smaller access orifice size, are the most striking advantages of this new device. The benefits of smart cannulation are obvious in remote cannulation for limited access cardiac surgery, but there are many other cannula applications where space is an issue, and that is where smart cannulation is most effective.