Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

Secretion of an endogenous subtilisin by Pichia pastoris strains GS115 and KM71.

The methylotrophic yeast Pichia pastoris is widely used for the expression of heterologous enzymes. While the purity of the desired expression product is of major importance for many applications, we found that recombinant enzymes produced in methanol medium were contaminated by a 37-kDa endogenous yeast protease. This enzyme was completely inhibited by phenylmethanesulfonyl fluoride (PMSF) but not by 1,10-phenanthroline, EDTA, and pepstatin A, suggesting the nature of a serine protease. Its secretion was abolished in P. pastoris strains GS115 and KM71 by specific mutagenesis of a subtilisin gene (SUB2) but not by inactivation of the gene encoding vacuolar proteinase B (PRB). Bioinformatic comparisons of Sub2 protein with subtilisins from other fungal genomes and phylogenetic analyses indicated that this enzyme is not an orthologue of the vacuolar protease cerevisin generally present in yeasts but is more closely related to another putative subtilisin found in a small number of yeast genomes. During growth of P. pastoris, Sub2 was produced as a secreted enzyme at a concentration of 10 microg/ml of culture supernatant after overexpression of the full-length SUB2 gene. During fermentative production of recombinant enzymes in methanol medium, 1 ml of P. pastoris culture supernatant was found to contain approximately 3 ng of Sub2, while the enzyme was not detected during growth in a medium containing glycerol as a carbon source. The mutant strain GS115-sub2 was subsequently used as a host for the production of recombinant proteases without endogenous subtilisin contamination.

How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain

This paper studies the duration pattern of xed-term contracts and the determinantsof their conversion into permanent ones in Spain, where the share of xed-termemployment is the highest in Europe. We estimate a duration model for temporaryemployment, with competing risks of terminating into permanent employment versusalternative states, and exible duration dependence. We nd that conversion rates aregenerally below 10%. Our estimated conversion rates roughly increase with tenure,with a pronounced spike at the legal limit, when there is no legal way to retain theworker on a temporary contract. We argue that estimated di¤erences in conversionrates across categories of workers can stem from di¤erences in worker outside optionsand thus the power to credibly threat to quit temporary jobs.

Ancrage/institutionnalisation des actions de l'OFSP visant à la réduction des problèmes liés à la toxicomanie : l'appréciation des responsables des programmes

[Table des matières] 1. Introduction. 2. Concepts et modèles d'ancrage. 3. Méthode. 4. Analyse de l'ancrage des programmes. 4.1 Programme Prévention des dépendances dans les communes (RADIX). 4.2 Programme Voilà. 4.3 Programme Fil rouge. 4.4 Programme Funtasy Projects. 4.5 Programme-cadre Ecoles et santé / REES-CH. 4.6 La "Formation des médiateurs scolaires de Suisse romande et du Tessin" et le Projet "Médication" (Ecoles et santé). 4.7 Programme "Drogue ou Sport?", Service "Drogues et sport", Programme "Sport et drogues" / LaOla. 4.8 Les projets soutenus par le Bureau suisse pour la réduction des risques liés aux drogues (OSEO). 4.9 Matériel de prévention de la toxicomanie produit par l'ISPA. 5. Conclusions : Les éléments transversaux d'ancrage des programmes. 6. Annexes.

Will the Convention on Biological Diversity put an end to biological control?

Will the Convention on Biological Diversity put an end to biological control? Under the Convention on Biological Diversity countries have sovereign rights over their genetic resources. Agreements governing the access to these resources and the sharing of the benefits arising from their use need to be established between involved parties. This also applies to species collected for potential use in biological control. Recent applications of access and benefit sharing principles have already made it difficult or impossible to collect and export natural enemies for biological control research in several countries. If such an approach is widely applied it would impede this very successful and environmentally safe pest management method based on the use of biological diversity. The International Organization for Biological Control of Noxious Animals and Plants has, therefore, created the "Commission on Biological Control and Access and Benefit Sharing". This commission is carrying out national and international activities to make clear how a benefit sharing regime might seriously frustrate the future of biological control. In addition, the IOBC Commission members published information on current regulations and perceptions concerning exploration for natural enemies and drafted some 30 case studies selected to illustrate a variety of points relevant to access and benefit sharing. In this article, we summarize our concern about the effects of access and benefit sharing systems on the future of biological control.

Citrate- vs. acetate-based dialysate in bicarbonate haemodialysis: consequences on haemodynamics, coagulation, acid-base status, and electrolytes.

BACKGROUND: A concentrate for bicarbonate haemodialysis acidified with citrate instead of acetate has been marketed in recent years. The small amount of citrate used (one-fifth of the concentration adopted in regional anticoagulation) protects against intradialyser clotting while minimally affecting the calcium concentration. The aim of this study was to compare the impact of citrate- and acetate-based dialysates on systemic haemodynamics, coagulation, acid-base status, calcium balance and dialysis efficiency. METHODS: In 25 patients who underwent a total of 375 dialysis sessions, an acetate dialysate (A) was compared with a citrate dialysate with (C+) or without (C) calcium supplementation (0.25 mmol/L) in a randomised single-blind cross-over study. Systemic haemodynamics were evaluated using pulse-wave analysis. Coagulation, acid-base status, calcium balance and dialysis efficiency were assessed using standard biochemical markers. RESULTS: Patients receiving the citrate dialysate had significantly lower systolic blood pressure (BP) (-4.3 mmHg, p < 0.01) and peripheral resistances (PR) (-51 dyne.sec.cm-5, p < 0.001) while stroke volume was not increased. In hypertensive patients there was a substantial reduction in BP (-7.8 mmHg, p < 0.01). With the C+ dialysate the BP gap was less pronounced but the reduction in PR was even greater (-226 dyne.sec.cm-5, p < 0.001). Analyses of the fluctuations in PR and of subjective tolerance suggested improved haemodynamic stability with the citrate dialysate. Furthermore, an increase in pre-dialysis bicarbonate and a decrease in pre-dialysis BUN, post-dialysis phosphate and ionised calcium were noted. Systemic coagulation activation was not influenced by citrate. CONCLUSION: The positive impact on dialysis efficiency, acid-base status and haemodynamics, as well as the subjective tolerance, together indicate that citrate dialysate can significantly contribute to improving haemodialysis in selected patients.

Toxic effects of brake wear particles on epithelial lung cells in vitro

Background: Fine particulate matter originating from traffic correlates with increased morbidity and mortality. An important source of traffic particles is brake wear of cars which contributes up to 20% of the total traffic emissions. The aim of this study was to evaluate potential toxicological effects of human epithelial lung cells exposed to freshly generated brake wear particles. Results: An exposure box was mounted around a car's braking system. Lung cells cultured at the air-liquid interface were then exposed to particles emitted from two typical braking behaviours ("full stop" and "normal deceleration"). The particle size distribution as well as the brake emission components like metals and carbons was measured on-line, and the particles deposited on grids for transmission electron microscopy were counted. The tight junction arrangement was observed by laser scanning microscopy. Cellular responses were assessed by measurement of lactate dehydrogenase (cytotoxicity), by investigating the production of reactive oxidative species and the release of the pro-inflammatory mediator interleukin-8. The tight junction protein occludin density decreased significantly (p < 0.05) with increasing concentrations of metals on the particles (iron, copper and manganese, which were all strongly correlated with each other). Occludin was also negatively correlated with the intensity of reactive oxidative species. The concentrations of interleukin-8 were significantly correlated with increasing organic carbon concentrations. No correlation was observed between occludin and interleukin-8, nor between reactive oxidative species and interleukin-8. Conclusion: These findings suggest that the metals on brake wear particles damage tight junctions with a mechanism involving oxidative stress. Brake wear particles also increase pro-inflammatory responses. However, this might be due to another mechanism than via oxidative stress. [Authors]

Genome-wide association study of blood pressure extremes identifies variant near UMOD associated with hypertension.

Hypertension is a heritable and major contributor to the global burden of disease. The sum of rare and common genetic variants robustly identified so far explain only 1%-2% of the population variation in BP and hypertension. This suggests the existence of more undiscovered common variants. We conducted a genome-wide association study in 1,621 hypertensive cases and 1,699 controls and follow-up validation analyses in 19,845 cases and 16,541 controls using an extreme case-control design. We identified a locus on chromosome 16 in the 5' region of Uromodulin (UMOD; rs13333226, combined P value of 3.6×10(-11)). The minor G allele is associated with a lower risk of hypertension (OR [95%CI]: 0.87 [0.84-0.91]), reduced urinary uromodulin excretion, better renal function; and each copy of the G allele is associated with a 7.7% reduction in risk of CVD events after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, and smoking status (H.R. = 0.923, 95% CI 0.860-0.991; p = 0.027). In a subset of 13,446 individuals with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements, we show that rs13333226 is independently associated with hypertension (unadjusted for eGFR: 0.89 [0.83-0.96], p = 0.004; after eGFR adjustment: 0.89 [0.83-0.96], p = 0.003). In clinical functional studies, we also consistently show the minor G allele is associated with lower urinary uromodulin excretion. The exclusive expression of uromodulin in the thick portion of the ascending limb of Henle suggests a putative role of this variant in hypertension through an effect on sodium homeostasis. The newly discovered UMOD locus for hypertension has the potential to give new insights into the role of uromodulin in BP regulation and to identify novel drugable targets for reducing cardiovascular risk.

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Pollution of air, water and soil by industrial chemicals presents a potential health risk to humans. Such chemicals can enter the human body by three routes, namely by inhalation, dermal absorption, and ingestion and in special cases by injection (needle sticks, bites, cuts, etc.). In the workplace, pulmonary and dermal absorption are the main routes of entry, but poor personal hygiene and work habits can result in ingestion that contributes to the dose. Air monitoring provides reliable information on inhalation exposure, and patches can be used to estimate dermal exposure. Local adverse effects, such as skin and eye irritation, or nose and lung irritation, are closely related to the external exposure. Systemic adverse effects, on the other hand, are related to the absorbed amount (dose), or to the level of the pollutant or its metabolite in the target organ. Human biological monitoring is becoming a powerful tool for scientists and policy makers to assess and manage the risk of exposure to chemicals both in the general population and at the workpalce. This chapter will focus on the occupational environment keeping in mind that biological monitoring in humans is a very actual issue in public health politics, in environmental medicine, and in science in general.