Spatial analysis of the error in a model of soil nitrogen

Models of the dynamics of nitrogen in soil (soil-N) can be used to aid the fertilizer management of a crop. The predictions of soil-N models can be validated by comparison with observed data. Validation generally involves calculating non-spatial statistics of the observations and predictions, such as their means, their mean squared-difference, and their correlation. However, when the model predictions are spatially distributed across a landscape the model requires validation with spatial statistics. There are three reasons for this: (i) the model may be more or less successful at reproducing the variance of the observations at different spatial scales; (ii) the correlation of the predictions with the observations may be different at different spatial scales; (iii) the spatial pattern of model error may be informative. In this study we used a model, parameterized with spatially variable input information about the soil, to predict the mineral-N content of soil in an arable field, and compared the results with observed data. We validated the performance of the N model spatially with a linear mixed model of the observations and model predictions, estimated by residual maximum likelihood. This novel approach allowed us to describe the joint variation of the observations and predictions as: (i) independent random variation that occurred at a fine spatial scale; (ii) correlated random variation that occurred at a coarse spatial scale; (iii) systematic variation associated with a spatial trend. The linear mixed model revealed that, in general, the performance of the N model changed depending on the spatial scale of interest. At the scales associated with random variation, the N model underestimated the variance of the observations, and the predictions were correlated poorly with the observations. At the scale of the trend, the predictions and observations shared a common surface. The spatial pattern of the error of the N model suggested that the observations were affected by the local soil condition, but this was not accounted for by the N model. In summary, the N model would be well-suited to field-scale management of soil nitrogen, but suited poorly to management at finer spatial scales. This information was not apparent with a non-spatial validation. (c),2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

Resolution of the uncertainties in the radiative forcing of HFC-134a

HFC-134a (CF3CH2F) is the most rapidly growing hydrofluorocarbon in terms of atmospheric abundance. It is currently used in a large number of household refrigerators and air-conditioning systems and its concentration in the atmosphere is forecast to increase substantially over the next 50–100 years. Previous estimates of its radiative forcing per unit concentration have differed significantly 25%. This paper uses a two-step approach to resolve this discrepancy. In the first step six independent absorption cross section datasets are analysed. We find that, for the integrated cross section in the spectral bands that contribute most to the radiative forcing, the differences between the various datasets are typically smaller than 5% and that the dependence on pressure and temperature is not significant. A “recommended'' HFC-134a infrared absorption spectrum was obtained based on the average band intensities of the strongest bands. In the second step, the “recommended'' HFC-134a spectrum was used in six different radiative transfer models to calculate the HFC-134a radiative forcing efficiency. The clear-sky instantaneous radiative forcing, using a single global and annual mean profile, differed by 8%, between the 6 models, and the latitudinally-resolved adjusted cloudy sky radiative forcing estimates differed by a similar amount.

The role of the sponsor in business change

Successful business change programmes require a holistic approach covering processes, people, information and technology. Yet many current IT-related initiatives rely heavily on a systems development lifecycle and too early use of structured project management methodologies. This is exacerbated by limited or unclear definitions of what constitutes success. The IT-enabled business change lifecycle has been developed as an antidote to this narrow view. It stresses the importance of alignment in fuzzy situations with a continued focus on benefits management throughout the lifecycle. This paper reports on business change in large enterprises describing the results of an exemplar case study using the IT-enabled change lifecycle. There are different challenges at each stage of the lifecycle with implications for the skills needed. The paper considers these stages from the perspective of the sponsor, a role which is often misunderstood, and assesses what is required for successful stewardship and leadership of change. It concludes with practical recommendations for sharing learning on success and failure throughout the enterprise.

Morphology and myofiber composition of skeletal musculature of the forelimb in young and aged wild type and myostatin null mice

Most current research into therapeutic approaches to muscle diseases involves the use of the mouse as an experimental model. Furthermore, a major strategy to alleviate myopathic symptoms through enhancing muscle growth and regeneration is to inhibit the action of myostatin (Mstn), a transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) family member that inhibits muscle growth. Presently, however, no study has expanded the morphological analysis of mouse skeletal muscle beyond a few individual muscles of the distal hindlimb, through which broad conclusions have been based. Therefore, we have initially undertaken an expansive analysis of the skeletal musculature of the mouse forelimb and highlighted the species-specific differences between equivalent muscles of the rat, another prominently used experimental model. Subsequently, we examined the musculature of the forelimb in both young and old adult wild-type (mstn(+/+)) and myostatin null (mstn(-/-)) mice and assessed the potential beneficial and detrimental effects of myostatin deletion on muscle morphology and composition during the aging process. We showed that: (1) the forelimb muscles of the mouse display a more glycolytic phenotype than those of the rat; (2) in the absence of myostatin, the induced myofiber hyperplasia, hypertrophy, and glycolytic conversion all occur in a muscle-specific manner; and, importantly, (3) the loss of myostatin significantly alters the dynamics of postnatal muscle growth and impairs age-related oxidative myofiber conversion.

Evaluation of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) clones against seven Colombian isolates of Moniliophthora roreri (Cif.) Evans et al., representing four major genetic groupings of the pathogen in cacao

Artificial pod inoculation was used to compare the relative aggressiveness of seven Colombian isolates of Moniliophthora roreri (the causal agent of moniliasis or frosty pod disease), representing four major genetic groupings of the pathogen in cacao (cocoa), when applied to five diverse cacao genotypes (ICS-1, ICS-95, TSH-565, SCC-61 and CAP-34) at La Suiza Experimental Farm, Santander Department, Colombia. The following variables were evaluated 9 weeks after inoculation of 2- to 3-month-old pods with spore suspensions (1.2 x 10(5) spores mL(-1)): (i) disease incidence (DI); (ii) external severity (ES); and (iii) internal severity (IS). IS was found to be of greatest value in classifying the reaction of the host genotype against M. roreri. Genetic variation reported between isolates and cacao genotypes was not matched by similar diversity in their aggressiveness. All isolates were generally highly aggressive against most cacao genotypes, with only two isolates showing reduced IS and ES reactions. There was considerable variation between clones in the IS and ES scores, but one cultivated clone (ICS-95) displayed a significant level of resistance against all seven isolates. This clone may be useful in cacao breeding initiatives for resistance to moniliasis of cacao.

Quantum studies of the vibrations in H3O2- and D3O2-

The vibrations of H3O2- and D3O2- are investigated using diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) and vibrational configuration-interaction approaches, as implemented in the program MULTIMODE. These studies use the potential surface recently developed by Huang [ J. Am. Chem. Soc. 126, 5042 (2004)]. The focus of this work is on the vibrational ground state and fundamentals which occur between 100 and 3700 cm(-1). In most cases, excellent agreement is obtained between the fundamental frequencies calculated by the two approaches. This serves to demonstrate the power of both methods for treating this very anharmonic system. Based on the results of the MULTIMODE and DMC treatments, the extent and nature of the couplings in H3O2- and D3O2- are investigated. (C) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

Differences in the activity of the muscles in the forearm of individuals with a congenital absence of the hand

The spectral content of the myoelectric signals from the muscles of the remnant forearms of three persons with congenital absences (CA) of their forearms was compared with signals from their intact contra-lateral limbs, similar muscles in three persons with acquired losses (AL) and seven persons without absences [no loss (NL)]. The observed bandwidth for the CA subjects was broader with peak energy between 200 and 300 Hz. While the signals from the contra-lateral limbs and the AL and NL subjects was in the 100-150 Hz range: The mean skew of the signals from the AL subjects was 46.3 +/- 6.7 and those with NL of 45.4 +/- 8.7, while the signals from those with CAs had a skew of 11.0 +/- 11. The structure of the muscles of one CA subject was observed ultrasonically. The muscle showed greater disruption than normally developed muscles. It is speculated that the myographic signal reflects the structure of the muscle. which has developed in a more disorganized manner as a result of the muscle not being stretched by other muscles across the missing distal joint, even in the muscles that are used regularly to control arm prostheses.

Variation in acrylamide producing potential in potato: Segregation of the trait in a breeding population

Acrylamide is a neurotoxin and possible carcinogen, and concern has been voiced over human exposure to acrylamide in cooked foods. Processed potato products such as crisps and French fries are often cited as being particularly high in acrylamide. In this manuscript a sub-set of clonal progeny from a specific tetraploid potato breeding population has been assessed for acrylamide forming potential in stored tubers processed into crisps. The clone with the lowest acrylamide content in crisps had both low reducing sugars and asparagine contents. Our data show that, in the segregating breeding population used, both asparagine and reducing sugars levels needed to be taken into account to explain most of the variation in acrylamide and that selection for low levels of both metabolites should be targeted for crop improvement.

Realism and politics in alienated space: Trevor Griffiths's plays of the 1970s in the television studio

The television studio play is often perceived as a somewhat compromised, problematic mode in which spatial and technological constraints inhibit the signifying and aesthetic capacity of dramatic texts. Leah Panos examines the function of the studio in the 1970s television dramas of socialist playwright Trevor Griffiths, and argues that the established verbal and visual conventions of the studio play, in its confined and ‘alienated’ space, connect with and reinforce various aspects of Griffiths's particular approach and agenda. As well as suggesting ways in which the idealist, theoretical focus of the intellectual New Left is reflexively replicated within the studio, Panos explores how the ‘intimate’ visual language of the television studio allows Griffiths to create a ‘humanized’ Marxist discourse through which he examines dialectically his dramatic characters' experiences, ideas, morality, and political objectives. Leah Panos recently completed her doctoral thesis, ‘Dramatizing New Left Contradictions: Television Texts of Ken Loach, Jim Allen, and Trevor Griffiths’, at the University of Reading and is now a Postdoctoral Researcher on the AHRC funded project, ‘Spaces of Television: Production, Site and Style’, which runs from July 2010 to March 2014.