A few what-ifs on using statistical analysis of stochastic simulation runs to extract timeliness properties

Modern real-time systems, with a more flexible and adaptive nature, demand approaches for timeliness evaluation based on probabilistic measures of meeting deadlines. In this context, simulation can emerge as an adequate solution to understand and analyze the timing behaviour of actual systems. However, care must be taken with the obtained outputs under the penalty of obtaining results with lack of credibility. Particularly important is to consider that we are more interested in values from the tail of a probability distribution (near worst-case probabilities), instead of deriving confidence on mean values. We approach this subject by considering the random nature of simulation output data. We will start by discussing well known approaches for estimating distributions out of simulation output, and the confidence which can be applied to its mean values. This is the basis for a discussion on the applicability of such approaches to derive confidence on the tail of distributions, where the worst-case is expected to be.

Analysis of stock market indices with multidimensional scaling and wavelets

Stock market indices SMIs are important measures of financial and economical performance. Considerable research efforts during the last years demonstrated that these signals have a chaotic nature and require sophisticated mathematical tools for analyzing their characteristics. Classical methods, such as the Fourier transform, reveal considerable limitations in discriminating different periods of time. This paper studies the dynamics of SMI by combining the wavelet transform and the multidimensional scaling MDS . Six continuous wavelets are tested for analyzing the information content of the stock signals. In a first phase, the real Shannon wavelet is adopted for performing the evaluation of the SMI dynamics, while their comparison is visualized by means of the MDS. In a second phase, the other wavelets are also tested, and the corresponding MDS plots are analyzed.

Infection and childhood leukemia: review of evidence

OBJECTIVE : To analyze studies that evaluated the role of infections as well as indirect measures of exposure to infection in the risk of childhood leukemia, particularly acute lymphoblastic leukemia. METHODS : A search in Medline, Lilacs, and SciELO scientific publication databases initially using the descriptors “childhood leukemia” and “infection” and later searching for the words “childhood leukemia” and “maternal infection or disease” or “breastfeeding” or “daycare attendance” or “vaccination” resulted in 62 publications that met the following inclusion criteria: subject aged ≤ 15 years; specific analysis of cases diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia or total leukemia; exposure assessment of mothers’ or infants’ to infections (or proxy of infection), and risk of leukemia. RESULTS : Overall, 23 studies that assessed infections in children support the hypothesis that occurrence of infection during early childhood reduces the risk of leukemia, but there are disagreements within and between studies. The evaluation of exposure to infection by indirect measures showed evidence of reduced risk of leukemia associated mainly with daycare attendance. More than 50.0% of the 16 studies that assessed maternal exposure to infection observed increased risk of leukemia associated with episodes of influenza, pneumonia, chickenpox, herpes zoster, lower genital tract infection, skin disease, sexually transmitted diseases, Epstein-Barr virus, and Helicobacter pylori . CONCLUSIONS : Although no specific infectious agent has been identified, scientific evidence suggests that exposure to infections has some effect on childhood leukemia etiology.

Factors associated to breastfeeding in the first hour of life: systematic review

OBJECTIVE To identify independent risk factors for non-breastfeeding within the first hour of life.METHODS A systematic review of Medline, LILACS, Scopus, and Web of Science electronic databases, till August 30, 2013, was performed without restrictions on language or date of publishing. Studies that used regression models and provided adjusted measures of association were included. Studies in which the regression model was not specified or those based on specific populations regarding age or the presence of morbidities were excluded.RESULTS The search resulted in 155 articles, from which 18 met the inclusion criteria. These were conducted in Asia (9), Africa (5), and South America (4), between 1999 and 2013. The prevalence of breastfeeding within the first hour of life ranged from 11.4%, in a province of Saudi Arabia, to 83.3% in Sri Lanka. Cesarean delivery was the most consistent risk factor for non-breastfeeding within the first hour of life. “Low family income”, “maternal age less than 25 years”, “low maternal education”, “no prenatal visit”, “home delivery”, “no prenatal guidance on breastfeeding” and “preterm birth” were reported as risk factors in at least two studies.CONCLUSIONS Besides the hospital routines, indicators for low socioeconomic status and poor access to health services were also identified as independent risk factors for non-breastfeeding within the first hour of life. Policies to promote breastfeeding, appropriate to each context, should aim to reduce inequalities in health.

A comparison of Sinogram Affirmed Iterative Reconstruction and filtered back projection on image quality and dose reduction in paediatric head CT: a phantom study

Background: Computed tomography (CT) is one of the most used modalities for diagnostics in paediatric populations, which is a concern as it also delivers a high patient dose. Research has focused on developing computer algorithms that provide better image quality at lower dose. The iterative reconstruction algorithm Sinogram-Affirmed Iterative Reconstruction (SAFIRE) was introduced as a new technique that reduces noise to increase image quality. Purpose: The aim of this study is to compare SAFIRE with the current gold standard, Filtered Back Projection (FBP), and assess whether SAFIRE alone permits a reduction in dose while maintaining image quality in paediatric head CT. Methods: Images were collected using a paediatric head phantom using a SIEMENS SOMATOM PERSPECTIVE 128 modulated acquisition. 54 images were reconstructed using FBP and 5 different strengths of SAFIRE. Objective measures of image quality were determined by measuring SNR and CNR. Visual measures of image quality were determined by 17 observers with different radiographic experiences. Images were randomized and displayed using 2AFC; observers scored the images answering 5 questions using a Likert scale. Results: At different dose levels, SAFIRE significantly increased SNR (up to 54%) in the acquired images compared to FBP at 80kVp (5.2-8.4), 110kVp (8.2-12.3), 130kVp (8.8-13.1). Visual image quality was higher with increasing SAFIRE strength. The highest image quality was scored with SAFIRE level 3 and higher. Conclusion: The SAFIRE algorithm is suitable for image noise reduction in paediatric head CT. Our data demonstrates that SAFIRE enhances SNR while reducing noise with a possible reduction of dose of 68%.

Approximate entropy normalized measures for analyzing social neurobiological systems

When considering time series data of variables describing agent interactions in social neurobiological systems, measures of regularity can provide a global understanding of such system behaviors. Approximate entropy (ApEn) was introduced as a nonlinear measure to assess the complexity of a system behavior by quantifying the regularity of the generated time series. However, ApEn is not reliable when assessing and comparing the regularity of data series with short or inconsistent lengths, which often occur in studies of social neurobiological systems, particularly in dyadic human movement systems. Here, the authors present two normalized, nonmodified measures of regularity derived from the original ApEn, which are less dependent on time series length. The validity of the suggested measures was tested in well-established series (random and sine) prior to their empirical application, describing the dyadic behavior of athletes in team games. The authors consider one of the ApEn normalized measures to generate the 95th percentile envelopes that can be used to test whether a particular social neurobiological system is highly complex (i.e., generates highly unpredictable time series). Results demonstrated that suggested measures may be considered as valid instruments for measuring and comparing complexity in systems that produce time series with inconsistent lengths.

ERICA: patterns of alcohol consumption in Brazilian adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the patterns of alcohol consumption in Brazilian adolescents. METHODS We investigated adolescents who participated in the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA). This is a cross-sectional, national and school-based study, which surveyed adolescents of 1,247 schools from 124 Brazilian municipalities. Participants answered a self-administered questionnaire with a section on alcoholic beverages consumption. Measures of relative frequency (prevalence), and their 95% confidence intervals, were estimated for the following variables: use of alcohol beverages in the last 30 days, frequency of use, number of glasses or doses consumed in the period, age of the first use of alcohol, and most consumed type of drink. Data were estimated for country and macro-region, sex, and age group. The module survey of the Stata program was used for data analysis of complex sample. RESULTS We evaluated 74,589 adolescents, who accounted for 72.9% of eligible students. About 1/5 of adolescents consumed alcohol at least once in the last 30 days and about 2/3 in one or two occasions during this period. Among the adolescents who consumed alcoholic beverages, 24.1% drank it for the first time before being 12 years old, and the most common type of alcoholic beverages consumed by them were drinks based on vodka, rum or tequila, and beer. CONCLUSIONS There is a high prevalence of alcohol consumption among adolescents, as well as their early onset of alcohol use. We also identified a possible change in the preferred type of alcoholic beverages compared with previous research.

Urban land use change analysis and modelling: a case study of Setubal-Sesimbra, Portugal

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

XII Iberian-Italian Congress of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics

"The purpose of the XII Iberian-Italian Congress of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics is to provide a meeting point for researchers in Financial Economics from different countries and research backgrounds in universities, government or financial institutions. In fact, the Congress which is currently taking place in Lisbon has been organized to encourage communication and debate among the participants as well as to reinforce the bonds between us.The current edition of the Congress is characterized by the quality and diversity of the papers that have been submitted with special attention to the International Financial Crisis and measures of risk in different financial markets. However, as the Congress Program indicates, there are also parallel sessions about traditional topics in finance such as asset pricing, insurance, corporate finance, etc.Although this Congress has always been organized alternately between Spain and Italy, this year we have the great pleasure of celebrating it in Portugal which will be included as a permanent partner." [prefácio]

DETECTION OF IgM ANTIBODIES TO Schistosoma mansoni GUT-ASSOCIATED ANTIGENS FOR THE STUDY OF THE DYNAMICS OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS TRANSMISSION IN AN ENDEMIC AREA WITH LOW WORM BURDEN

For a period of 2 years, five follow-up measures of prevalence and incidence rates were estimated in a prospective study of S. mansoni infection in a group of schoolchildren who were living in a rural area of the Municipality of Itariri (São Paulo, Brazil), where schistosomiasis is transmitted by Biomphalaria tenagophila. Infection was determined by the examination of three Kato-Katz stool slides, and the parasitological findings were analyzed in comparison to serological data. In the five surveys, carried out at 6-month intervals (March-April and September-October), the prevalences were, respectively, 8.6, 6.8, 9.9, 5.8 and 17.2% by the Kato-Katz, and 56.5, 52.6, 60.8, 53.5 and 70.1% by the immunofluorescence test (IFT). Geometric mean egg counts were low: 57.8, 33.0, 35.6, 47.3 and 40.9 eggs per gram of feces, respectively. Of the total of 299 schoolchildren, who submitted five blood samples at 6-month intervals, one for each survey, 40% were IFT-positive throughout the study, and 22% were IFT-negative in all five surveys. Seroconversion from IFT negative to positive, indicating newly acquired S. mansoni infection, was observed more frequently in surveys carried out during March-April (after Summer holidays), than during September-October. Seasonal trends were not statistically significant for detection of S. mansoni eggs in stool. The results indicate that the use of IgM-IFT is superior to parasitological methods for detection of incidence of S. mansoni infection in areas with low worm burden.

Modelling of the kinetics of municipal solid waste composting in full-scale mechanical-biological treatment plants

A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Sanitary Engineering in the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of the New University of Lisbon

ELISA test for the diagnosis of cysticercosis in pigs using antigens of Taenia solium and Taenia crassiceps cysticerci

In the present study ELISA was standardized for the diagnosis of swine cysticercosis based on necropsy parameters and confirmed positive and negative control sera. Serum samples from pigs with other infections were also assayed to determine possible cross-reactions. Four antigens were assayed: from Taenia crassiceps vesicular fluid (VF-Tcra) and crude larvae extract (T-Tcra), and from Taenia solium extracts of scolex (S-Ts) and of larvae (T-Ts). A checkerboard evaluation of antigen, serum and conjugate dilutions, as well as the use of Tween-20 and skim cow milk in wash and blocking solution had a marked effect on improving ELISA performance. All the antigens showed a good performance, but VF-Tcra was the best, with 96.0% and 80.0% sensitivities for cut-offs respectively at 2sd and 3sd, and corresponding specificities of 97.5% and 100.0%. Cross-reactivity was observed only with hydatidosis and ascaridiosis. In view of the high performance observed, the ELISA test should be recommended for the diagnosis of cysticercosis in suspected swine in slaughterhouses and for the screening of cysticercosis in swine production. These results will support integrated measures of cysticercosis control throughout the chain of swine production, effectively contributing to public health.

Gait Analysis of Natural and Artificial Walking Systems

This paper studies periodic gaits of multi-legged locomotion systems based on dynamic models. The purpose is to determine the system performance during walking and the best set of locomotion variables. For that objective the prescribed motion of the robot is completely characterized in terms of several locomotion variables such as gait, duty factor, body height, step length, stroke pitch, foot clearance, legs link lengths, foot-hip offset, body and legs mass and cycle time. In this perspective, we formulate three performance measures of the walking robot namely, the mean absolute energy, the mean power dispersion and the mean power lost in the joint actuators per walking distance. A set of model-based experiments reveals the influence of the locomotion variables in the proposed indices.

Cascade Control of a Hexapod Robot

6th International Conference on Climbing and Walking Robots and the Support Technologies for Mobile Machines, Catania, Italy, 17-19 September

Co-Authorship of scientists in the energy field: an exploratory study of the ETDE World Energy Database (ETDEWEB) using Social Network Analysis

Paper presented at the 5th European Conference Economics and Management of Energy in Industry, Vilamoura, Algarve. Apr. 14-17, 2009, 11p. URL: http:// www.cenertec.pt/ecemei/