Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

A new early and automated MRI-based predictor of motor improvement after stroke.

OBJECTIVES: In this study, we investigated the structural plasticity of the contralesional motor network in ischemic stroke patients using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and explored a model that combines a MRI-based metric of contralesional network integrity and clinical data to predict functional outcome at 6 months after stroke. METHODS: MRI and clinical examinations were performed in 12 patients in the acute phase, at 1 and 6 months after stroke. Twelve age- and gender-matched controls underwent 2 MRIs 1 month apart. Structural remodeling after stroke was assessed using diffusion MRI with an automated measurement of generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA), which was calculated along connections between contralesional cortical motor areas. The predictive model of poststroke functional outcome was computed using a linear regression of acute GFA measures and the clinical assessment. RESULTS: GFA changes in the contralesional motor tracts were found in all patients and differed significantly from controls (0.001 ≤ p < 0.05). GFA changes in intrahemispheric and interhemispheric motor tracts correlated with age (p ≤ 0.01); those in intrahemispheric motor tracts correlated strongly with clinical scores and stroke sizes (p ≤ 0.001). GFA measured in the acute phase together with a routine motor score and age were a strong predictor of motor outcome at 6 months (r(2) = 0.96, p = 0.0002). CONCLUSION: These findings represent a proof of principle that contralesional diffusion MRI measures may provide reliable information for personalized rehabilitation planning after ischemic motor stroke. Neurology® 2012;79:39-46.

Muurahaishapon käyttö etikkahapon ja propionihapon sovelluksissa

Työssä tutkittiin muurahais-, etikka- ja propionihapon sekä näiden johdannaisten teollisia sovelluskohteita. Työn tarkoituksena oli löytää muurahaishapolle tai sen johdannaisille potentiaalisia käyttökohteita etikka- ja propionihapon sekä näiden johdannaisten teollisista sovelluskohteista. Työssä on laaja kirjallisuuskatsaus, jossa käsitellään muurahais-, etikka- ja propionihapon kemiallisia ja fysikaalisia ominaisuuksia, ekologisia ja korroosiovaikutuksia sekä yleensä orgaanisten happojen antimikrobisia ominaisuuksia. Tämän lisäksi työssä esitellään tarkasteltavien happojen sekä happojohdannaisten markkinat teollisissa sovelluksissa Yhdysvalloissa, Länsi-Euroopassa ja Japanissa. Korvaavuuksien syventävän analyysin avulla pyrittiin löytämään ne sovelluskohteet muurahaishapolle tai sen johdannaisille, joissa ne voisivat olla hinnaltaan kilpailukykyisiä vastaavien etikka-ja propionihapposovellusten kanssa. Mahdollisen korvaavuuden rajaksi asetettiin5 000 tonnia sovelluskohdetta kohti. Kirjallisuustutkimuksen perusteella etikkahapon estereiden (asetaattiestereiden) käyttökohde liuottimien komponentteinavoisi olla potentiaalisin käyttökohde vastaaville muurahaishapon estereille (formiaattiestereille). Asetaattiestereitä on ennustettu käytettävän maailmalla 2 808 000 tonnia vuonna 2006. Niiden pääkäyttöalueet ovat liuottimina pintapäällysteissä kuten maaleissa, lakoissa sekä painomusteissa ja -väreissä. Toistaiseksi formiaattiestereitä on hyödynnetty vain muutamia satoja tonneja lähinnä lääketeollisuuden sovelluksissa välituotteena. Työssä tehtyjen alustavien laskelmien perusteella muurahaishapon esterit ovat hintatasoltaan kilpailukykyinen vaihtoehto vastaaville asetaattiestereille. Diplomityön kokeellisessa osassa etyyliformiaattia valmistettiin menestyksekkäästi laboratoriomittakaavassa. Toinen potentiaalinen uusi tuote on selluloosaformiaattikuitu (SF-kuitu). Selluloosa-asetaattikuitua käytettiin vuonna 2001 845 000 tonnia, josta 79 % kului savukefilttereiden valmistukseen. SF-kuitu on kirjallisuuden mukaan vaihtoehtoinen raaka-aine savukefilttereiden valmistukseen.

Performance analysis of software run-time behaviour using 3D-visualisation

Monimutkaisen tietokonejärjestelmän suorituskykyoptimointi edellyttää järjestelmän ajonaikaisen käyttäytymisen ymmärtämistä. Ohjelmiston koon ja monimutkaisuuden kasvun myötä suorituskykyoptimointi tulee yhä tärkeämmäksi osaksi tuotekehitysprosessia. Tehokkaampien prosessorien käytön myötä myös energiankulutus ja lämmöntuotto ovat nousseet yhä suuremmiksi ongelmiksi, erityisesti pienissä, kannettavissa laitteissa. Lämpö- ja energiaongelmien rajoittamiseksi on kehitetty suorituskyvyn skaalausmenetelmiä, jotka edelleen lisäävät järjestelmän kompleksisuutta ja suorituskykyoptimoinnin tarvetta. Tässä työssä kehitettiin visualisointi- ja analysointityökalu ajonaikaisen käyttäytymisen ymmärtämisen helpottamiseksi. Lisäksi kehitettiin suorituskyvyn mitta, joka mahdollistaa erilaisten skaalausmenetelmien vertailun ja arvioimisen suoritusympäristöstä riippumatta, perustuen joko suoritustallenteen tai teoreettiseen analyysiin. Työkalu esittää ajonaikaisesti kerätyn tallenteen helposti ymmärrettävällä tavalla. Se näyttää mm. prosessit, prosessorikuorman, skaalausmenetelmien toiminnan sekä energiankulutuksen kolmiulotteista grafiikkaa käyttäen. Työkalu tuottaa myös käyttäjän valitsemasta osasta suorituskuvaa numeerista tietoa, joka sisältää useita oleellisia suorituskykyarvoja ja tilastotietoa. Työkalun sovellettavuutta tarkasteltiin todellisesta laitteesta saatua suoritustallennetta sekä suorituskyvyn skaalauksen simulointia analysoimalla. Skaalausmekanismin parametrien vaikutus simuloidun laitteen suorituskykyyn analysoitiin.

Adaptació metrològica grega en l'arquitectura ibèrica de Catalunya: Puig de Sant Andreu d'Ullastret i Mas Castellar de Pontós

En el presente artículo se analiza la adopción en el contexto ibérico catalán de los patrones métricos característicos de las colonias griegas del Mediterráneo occidental. La determinación de la unidad de medida constructiva empleada, así como de su aplicación, ha sido posible mediante la identificación de los principios geométricos estructurales de las torres defensivas ibéricas.

Using software metrics to increase efficiency in product creation

Opinnäytetyö etsii korrelaatiota ohjelmistomittauksella saavutettujen tulosten ja ohjelmasta löytyneiden virheiden väliltä. Työssä käytetään koeryhmänä jo olemassaolevia ohjelmistoja. Työ tutkii olisiko ohjelmistomittareita käyttämällä ollut mahdollista paikallistaa ohjelmistojen ongelmakohdat ja näin saada arvokasta tietoa ohjelmistokehitykseen. Mittausta voitaisiin käyttää resurssien parempaan kohdentamiseen koodikatselmuksissa, koodi-integraatiossa, systeemitestauksessa ja aikataulutuksessa. Mittaamisen avulla nämä tehtävät saisivat enemmän tietoa resurssien kohdistamiseen. Koeryhmänä käytetään erilaisia ohjelmistotuotteita. Yhteistä näille kaikille tuotteille on niiden peräkkäiset julkaisut. Uutta julkaisua tehtäessä, edellistä julkaisua käytetään pohjana, jonka päällekehitetään uutta lähdekoodia. Tämän takia ohjelmistomittauksessa pitää pystyä erottelemaan edellisen julkaisun lähdekoodi uudesta lähdekoodista. Työssä käytettävät ohjelmistomittarit ovat yleisiä ja ohjelmistotekniikassalaajasti käytettyjä mittaamaan erilaisia lähdekoodin ominaisuuksia, joiden arvellaan vaikuttavan virhealttiuteen. Tämän työn tarkoitus on tutkia näiden ohjelmistomittareiden käytettävyyttä koeryhmänä toimivissa ohjelmistoympäristöissä. Käytännön osuus työstä onnistui löytämään korrelaation joidenkinohjelmistomittareiden ja virheiden väliltä, samalla kuin toiset ohjelmistomittarit eivät antaneet vakuuttavia tuloksia. Ohjelmistomittareita käyttämällä näyttää olevan mahdollista tunnistaa virhealttiit kohdat ohjelmasta ja siten parantaa ohjelmistokehityksen tehokkuutta. Ohjelmistomittareiden käyttö tuotekehityksessäon perusteltavaa ja niiden avulla mahdollisesti pystyttäisiin vaikuttamaan ohjelmiston laatuun tulevissa julkaisuissa.

Validation of an Adapted French Form of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale in four Francophone Countries

This study presents the validation of a French version of the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale in four Francophone countries. The aim was to re-analyze the item selection and then compare this newly developed French-language form with the international form 2.0. Exploratory factor analysis was used as a tool for item selection, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) verified the structure of the CAAS French-language form. Measurement equivalence across the four countries was tested using multi-group CFA. Adults and adolescents (N=1,707) participated from Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France. Items chosen for the final version of the CAAS French-language form are different to those in the CAAS international form 2.0 and provide an improvement in terms of reliability. The factor structure is replicable across country, age, and gender. Strong evidence for metric invariance and partial evidence for scalar invariance of the CAAS French-language form across countries is given. The CAAS French-language and CAAS international form 2.0 can be used in a combined form of 31 items. The CAAS French-language form will certainly be interesting for practitioners using interventions based on the life design paradigm or aiming at increasing career adapt-ability.

On Effort Estimation in Software Projects

Software engineering is criticized as not being engineering or 'well-developed' science at all. Software engineers seem not to know exactly how long their projects will last, what they will cost, and will the software work properly after release. Measurements have to be taken in software projects to improve this situation. It is of limited use to only collect metrics afterwards. The values of the relevant metrics have to be predicted, too. The predictions (i.e. estimates) form the basis for proper project management. One of the most painful problems in software projects is effort estimation. It has a clear and central effect on other project attributes like cost and schedule, and to product attributes like size and quality. Effort estimation can be used for several purposes. In this thesis only the effort estimation in software projects for project management purposes is discussed. There is a short introduction to the measurement issues, and some metrics relevantin estimation context are presented. Effort estimation methods are covered quite broadly. The main new contribution in this thesis is the new estimation model that has been created. It takes use of the basic concepts of Function Point Analysis, but avoids the problems and pitfalls found in the method. It is relativelyeasy to use and learn. Effort estimation accuracy has significantly improved after taking this model into use. A major innovation related to the new estimationmodel is the identified need for hierarchical software size measurement. The author of this thesis has developed a three level solution for the estimation model. All currently used size metrics are static in nature, but this new proposed metric is dynamic. It takes use of the increased understanding of the nature of the work as specification and design work proceeds. It thus 'grows up' along with software projects. The effort estimation model development is not possible without gathering and analyzing history data. However, there are many problems with data in software engineering. A major roadblock is the amount and quality of data available. This thesis shows some useful techniques that have been successful in gathering and analyzing the data needed. An estimation process is needed to ensure that methods are used in a proper way, estimates are stored, reported and analyzed properly, and they are used for project management activities. A higher mechanism called measurement framework is also introduced shortly. The purpose of the framework is to define and maintain a measurement or estimationprocess. Without a proper framework, the estimation capability of an organization declines. It requires effort even to maintain an achieved level of estimationaccuracy. Estimation results in several successive releases are analyzed. It isclearly seen that the new estimation model works and the estimation improvementactions have been successful. The calibration of the hierarchical model is a critical activity. An example is shown to shed more light on the calibration and the model itself. There are also remarks about the sensitivity of the model. Finally, an example of usage is shown.

Climate Change, Neutrality and the Harm Principle

This paper aims at evaluating the compatibility of coercive climate policies with liberal neutrality. More precisely, it focuses on the doctrine of state neutrality as associated with the "harm principle". It argues that given the difficulty of attributing causal responsibilities for climate harms to individuals, the harm principle doesn't work in this case, at least if one endorses a liberal atomistic ontology. Furthermore, the definition of what constitutes climate harms implies making moral assumptions, which makes it impossible to justify climate policies in a neutral way. Finally, the paper shows another consequence of applying neutrality to the case of climate change, that is the risk of a shift from political forms of decision-making to technocracy. Focusing too much on liberty of choice may (paradoxically) be to the detriment of political freedom. The paper concludes that climate change is an intrinsically moral issue and that it should be the occasion of a political debate about our current values and lifestyles. It should not be reduced to a mere question of carbon metric.

El tren d'alta velocitat i el teixit industrial a la regió de Lleida

Per entendre el possible impacte del tren d'alta velocitat a Lleida s'han analitzat exemples de França (línia París-Lió) i Alemanya (Mannheim), on el tren d'alta velocitat competeix favorablement amb l'autopista en trajectes de més d'una hora o una hora i mitja, i amb l'avió en trajectes de fins a 3 hores. Les estacions urbanes de les grans aglomeracions, dotades amb un bon transport públic, se'n beneficien de la seva centralitat i de la realimentació mútua entre serveis, mentre que les situades a fora dels nuclis han vist com el servei inicial s'ha degradat per manca de clientela suficient. L'arribada del tren d'alta velocitat a una estació central s'aprofita sovint per renovar-la, cosa que afecta també el seu entorn i, de vegades, el barri sencer. El tren d'alta velocitat, doncs, augmenta la centralitat i, en alguns casos, motiva una descentralització concentrada de les metròpolis a les ciutats mitjanes. A més, provoca noves pautes de localització i afavoreix un funcionament més eficaç de les empreses dels sectors sensibles. El sector agroalimentari i alguns serveis presents a Lleida poden gaudir d'aquest afavoriment si es tecnifiquen i se situen en un grau de qualificació alt.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Prospective motion correction of 3D echo-planar imaging data for functional MRI using optical tracking.

We evaluated the performance of an optical camera based prospective motion correction (PMC) system in improving the quality of 3D echo-planar imaging functional MRI data. An optical camera and external marker were used to dynamically track the head movement of subjects during fMRI scanning. PMC was performed by using the motion information to dynamically update the sequence's RF excitation and gradient waveforms such that the field-of-view was realigned to match the subject's head movement. Task-free fMRI experiments on five healthy volunteers followed a 2×2×3 factorial design with the following factors: PMC on or off; 3.0mm or 1.5mm isotropic resolution; and no, slow, or fast head movements. Visual and motor fMRI experiments were additionally performed on one of the volunteers at 1.5mm resolution comparing PMC on vs PMC off for no and slow head movements. Metrics were developed to quantify the amount of motion as it occurred relative to k-space data acquisition. The motion quantification metric collapsed the very rich camera tracking data into one scalar value for each image volume that was strongly predictive of motion-induced artifacts. The PMC system did not introduce extraneous artifacts for the no motion conditions and improved the time series temporal signal-to-noise by 30% to 40% for all combinations of low/high resolution and slow/fast head movement relative to the standard acquisition with no prospective correction. The numbers of activated voxels (p<0.001, uncorrected) in both task-based experiments were comparable for the no motion cases and increased by 78% and 330%, respectively, for PMC on versus PMC off in the slow motion cases. The PMC system is a robust solution to decrease the motion sensitivity of multi-shot 3D EPI sequences and thereby overcome one of the main roadblocks to their widespread use in fMRI studies.

Supergravity models of (3+1)-dimensional QCD

The most general black M5-brane solution of eleven-dimensional supergravity (with a flat R4 spacetime in the brane and a regular horizon) is characterized by charge, mass and two angular momenta. We use this metric to construct general dual models of large-N QCD (at strong coupling) that depend on two free parameters. The mass spectrum of scalar particles is determined analytically (in the WKB approximation) and numerically in the whole two-dimensional parameter space. We compare the mass spectrum with analogous results from lattice calculations, and find that the supergravity predictions are close to the lattice results everywhere on the two dimensional parameter space except along a special line. We also examine the mass spectrum of the supergravity Kaluza-Klein (KK) modes and find that the KK modes along the compact D-brane coordinate decouple from the spectrum for large angular momenta. There are however KK modes charged under a U(1)×U(1) global symmetry which do not decouple anywhere on the parameter space. General formulas for the string tension and action are also given.

Soluble models in two-dimensional dilaton gravity

A one-parameter class of simple models of two-dimensional dilaton gravity, which can be exactly solved including back-reaction effects, is investigated at both classical and quantum levels. This family contains the RST model as a special case, and it continuously interpolates between models having a flat (Rindler) geometry and a constant curvature metric with a nontrivial dilaton field. The processes of formation of black hole singularities from collapsing matter and Hawking evaporation are considered in detail. Various physical aspects of these geometries are discussed, including the cosmological interpretation.

Humeral development from neonatal period to skeletal maturity—application in age and sex assessment

The goal of the present study is to examine cross-sectional information on the growth of the humerus based on the analysis of four measurements, namely, diaphyseal length, transversal diameter of the proximal (metaphyseal) end of the shaft, epicondylar breadth and vertical diameter of the head. This analysis was performed in 181 individuals (90 ♂ and 91 ♀) ranging from birth to 25 years of age and belonging to three documented Western European skeletal collections (Coimbra, Lisbon and St. Bride). After testing the homogeneity of the sample, the existence of sexual differences (Student"s t- and Mann-Whitney U-test) and the growth of the variables (polynomial regression) were evaluated. The results showed the presence of sexual differences in epicondylar breadth above 20 years of age and vertical diameter of the head from 15 years of age, thus indicating that these two variables may be of use in determining sex from that age onward. The growth pattern of the variables showed a continuous increase and followed first- and second-degree polynomials. However, growth of the transversal diameter of the proximal end of the shaft followed a fourth-degree polynomial. Strong correlation coefficients were identified between humeral size and age for each of the four metric variables. These results indicate that any of the humeral measurements studied herein is likely to serve as a useful means of estimating sub-adult age in forensic samples.