THE TRANSPORT OF HEAT BY FLOWING GROUNDWATER IN A DISCRETE FRACTURE

In typical theoretical or experimental studies of heat migration in discrete fractures, conduction and thermal dispersion are commonly neglected from the fracture heat transport equation, assuming heat conduction into the matrix is predominant. In this study analytical and numerical models are used to investigate the significance of conduction and thermal dispersion in the plane of the fracture for a point and line sources geometries. The analytical models account for advective, conductive and dispersive heat transport in both the longitudinal and transverse directions in the fracture. The heat transport in the fracture is coupled with a matrix equation in which heat is conducted in the direction perpendicular to the fracture. In the numerical model, the governing heat transport processes are the same as the analytical models; however, the matrix conduction is considered in both longitudinal and transverse directions. Firstly, we demonstrate that longitudinal conduction and dispersion are critical processes that affect heat transport in fractured rock environments, especially for small apertures (eg. 100 μm or less), high flow rate conditions (eg. velocity greater than 50 m/day) and early time (eg. less than 10 days). Secondly, transverse thermal dispersion in the fracture plane is also observed to be an important transport process leading to retardation of the migrating heat front particularly at late time (eg. after 40 days of hot water injection). Solutions which neglect dispersion in the transverse direction underestimate the locations of heat fronts at late time. Finally, this study also suggests that the geometry of the heat sources has significant effects on the heat transport in the system. For example, the effects of dispersion in the fracture are observed to decrease when the width of the heat source expands.

Is socioeconomic position early in life associated with physical activity during adulthood following the accumulation of risk model with additive effects?

L'activité physique améliore la santé, mais seulement 4.8% des Canadiens atteignent le niveau recommandé. La position socio-économique est un des déterminants de l'activité physique les plus importants. Elle est associée à l’activité physique de manière transversale à l’adolescence et à l’âge adulte. Cette thèse a tenté de déterminer s'il y a une association à long terme entre la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie et l’activité physique à l’âge adulte. S'il y en avait une, un deuxième objectif était de déterminer quel modèle théorique en épidémiologie des parcours de vie décrivait le mieux sa forme. Cette thèse comprend trois articles: une recension systématique et deux recherches originales. Dans la recension systématique, des recherches ont été faites dans Medline et EMBASE pour trouver les études ayant mesuré la position socio-économique avant l'âge de 18 ans et l'activité physique à ≥18 ans. Dans les deux recherches originales, la modélisation par équations structurelles a été utilisée pour comparer trois modèles alternatifs en épidémiologie des parcours de vie: le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effet déclenché et le modèle de période critique. Ces modèles ont été comparés dans deux cohortes prospectives représentatives à l'échelle nationale: la 1970 British birth cohort (n=16,571; première recherche) et l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes (n=16,903; deuxième recherche). Dans la recension systématique, 10 619 articles ont été passés en revue par deux chercheurs indépendants et 42 ont été retenus. Pour le résultat «activité physique» (tous types et mesures confondus), une association significative avec la position socio-économique durant l’enfance fut trouvée dans 26/42 études (61,9%). Quand seulement l’activité physique durant les loisirs a été considérée, une association significative fut trouvée dans 21/31 études (67,7%). Dans un sous-échantillon de 21 études ayant une méthodologie plus forte, les proportions d’études ayant trouvé une association furent plus hautes : 15/21 (71,4%) pour tous les types et toutes les mesures d’activité physique et 12/15 (80%) pour l’activité physique de loisir seulement. Dans notre première recherche originale sur les données de la British birth cohort, pour la classe sociale, nous avons trouvé que le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux chez les hommes et les femmes pour l’activité physique de loisir, au travail et durant les transports. Dans notre deuxième recherche originale sur les données canadiennes sur l'activité physique de loisir, nous avons trouvé que chez les hommes, le modèle de période critique s’est ajusté le mieux aux données pour le niveau d’éducation et le revenu, alors que chez les femmes, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux pour le revenu, tandis que le niveau d’éducation ne s’est ajusté à aucun des modèles testés. En conclusion, notre recension systématique indique que la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie est associée à la pratique d'activité physique à l'âge adulte. Les résultats de nos deux recherches originales suggèrent un patron d’associations le mieux représenté par le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs.

A longitudinal investigation of coping processes during a merger: Implications for job satisfaction and organizational identification

This study tested the utility of a stress and coping model of employee adjustment to a merger Two hundred and twenty employees completed both questionnaires (Time 1: 3 months after merger implementation; Time 2: 2 years later). Structural equation modeling analyses revealed that positive event characteristics predicted greater appraisals of self-efficacy and less stress at Time 1. Self-efficacy, in turn, predicted greater use of problem-focused coping at Time 2, whereas stress predicted a greater use of problem-focused and avoidance coping. Finally, problem-focused coping predicted higher levels of job satisfaction and identification with the merged organization (Time 2), whereas avoidance coping predicted lower identification.

A Mixture model with random-effects components for clustering correlated gene-expression profiles

Motivation: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. Results: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation) and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too.

Methods for Categorical Longitudinal Survey Data: Understanding Employment Status of Australian Women

Many variables that are of interest in social science research are nominal variables with two or more categories, such as employment status, occupation, political preference, or self-reported health status. With longitudinal survey data it is possible to analyse the transitions of individuals between different employment states or occupations (for example). In the statistical literature, models for analysing categorical dependent variables with repeated observations belong to the family of models known as generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). The specific GLMM for a dependent variable with three or more categories is the multinomial logit random effects model. For these models, the marginal distribution of the response does not have a closed form solution and hence numerical integration must be used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the model parameters. Techniques for implementing the numerical integration are available but are computationally intensive requiring a large amount of computer processing time that increases with the number of clusters (or individuals) in the data and are not always readily accessible to the practitioner in standard software. For the purposes of analysing categorical response data from a longitudinal social survey, there is clearly a need to evaluate the existing procedures for estimating multinomial logit random effects model in terms of accuracy, efficiency and computing time. The computational time will have significant implications as to the preferred approach by researchers. In this paper we evaluate statistical software procedures that utilise adaptive Gaussian quadrature and MCMC methods, with specific application to modeling employment status of women using a GLMM, over three waves of the HILDA survey.

Monitoring inflammation and airway remodeling by FMT in a chronic asthma model

Asthma is a multifactorial disease for which a variety of mouse models have been developed. A major drawback of these models is represented by the transient nature of the airway pathology peaking 24 to 72 hours after challenge and resolving in 1 to 2 weeks. The objective of this study is to characterize the temporal evolution of pulmonary inflammation and remodeling in a recently described mouse model of chronic asthma (8 week treatment with 3 allergens relevant for the human pathology: Dust mite, Ragweed, and Aspergillus; DRA). We studied the DRA model taking advantage of fluorescence molecular tomography (FMT) imaging using near-infrared probes to non-invasively evaluate lung inflammation and airway remodeling. At 4, 6, 8 or 11 weeks, cathepsin- and metalloproteinase-dependent fluorescence was evaluated in vivo. A subgroup of animals, after 4 weeks of DRA, was treated with Budesonide (100 µg/kg intranasally) daily for 4 weeks. Cathepsin-dependent fluorescence in DRA-sensitized mice resulted significantly increased at 6 and 8 weeks, and was markedly inhibited by budesonide. This fluorescent signal well correlated with ex vivo analysis such as bronchoalveolar lavage eosinophils and alveolar cell infiltration. Metalloproteinase-dependent fluorescence was significantly increased at 8 and 11 weeks, nicely correlated with collagen deposition, as evaluated histologically by Masson’s Trichrome staining, and airway epithelium hypertrophy, and was also partly inhibited by budesonide. In conclusion, FMT proved suitable for longitudinal study to evaluate asthma progression, both in terms of inflammatory cell infiltration and airway remodeling, allowing the determination of treatment efficacy in a chronic asthma model in mice.

Three-factor models versus time series models:quantifying time-dependencies of interactions between stimuli in cell biology and psychobiology for short longitudinal data

Signal integration determines cell fate on the cellular level, affects cognitive processes and affective responses on the behavioural level, and is likely to be involved in psychoneurobiological processes underlying mood disorders. Interactions between stimuli may subjected to time effects. Time-dependencies of interactions between stimuli typically lead to complex cell responses and complex responses on the behavioural level. We show that both three-factor models and time series models can be used to uncover such time-dependencies. However, we argue that for short longitudinal data the three factor modelling approach is more suitable. In order to illustrate both approaches, we re-analysed previously published short longitudinal data sets. We found that in human embryonic kidney 293 cells cells the interaction effect in the regulation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) 1 signalling activation by insulin and epidermal growth factor is subjected to a time effect and dramatically decays at peak values of ERK activation. In contrast, we found that the interaction effect induced by hypoxia and tumour necrosis factor-alpha for the transcriptional activity of the human cyclo-oxygenase-2 promoter in HEK293 cells is time invariant at least in the first 12-h time window after stimulation. Furthermore, we applied the three-factor model to previously reported animal studies. In these studies, memory storage was found to be subjected to an interaction effect of the beta-adrenoceptor agonist clenbuterol and certain antagonists acting on the alpha-1-adrenoceptor / glucocorticoid-receptor system. Our model-based analysis suggests that only if the antagonist drug is administer in a critical time window, then the interaction effect is relevant.

Polarisation mode dispersion correlations with the coarse-step method

Having a fixed differential-group delay (DGD) term b′ in the coarse-step method results in a repetitive pattern in the autocorrelation function (ACF). We solve this problem by inserting a varying DGD term at each integration step. Furthermore we compute the range of values needed for b′ and simulate the phenomenon of polarisation mode dispersion for different statistical distributions of b′. We examine systematically the modified coarse-step method compared to the analytical model, through our simulation results. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

40Gbit/s dispersion managed soliton transmission

This thesis contains the results of experimental and numerical simulations of optical transmission systems using dispersion managed transmission techniques. Theoretical background is given on the propagation of pulses in optical fibres before extending the arguments to optical solitons, their applications and uses in communications. Dispersion management for transmission systems is introduced and then a brief explanation of quasi-linear pulse propagation is given. Techniques for performing laboratory transmission experiments are divulged and focus on the construction and operation of a recirculating loop. Laser sources and modulators for 40Gbit/s transmission rates are discussed and techniques for acquiring information from the resultant eye are explained.The operation of optically time division demultiplexing with a nonlinear elecro-absorption modulator is considered and then is replaced by the used of a linear electro-optic modulator and Dispersion unbalanced loop mirror (DILM). The use of nonlinearity as a positive effect for the use of processing and regenerating optical data is approached with an insight into the operation interferometers. Successful experimental results are given for the characterisation of the DILM and 40Gbit/ to l0Gbit/s demultiplexing is demonstrated.Modelling of a terrestrial style system is performed and the methods for computer simulation are discussed. The simulations model single channel 40Gbit/s transmission, 16 x 40Gbit/s WDM transmission and WDM transmission with varying channel separation. Three modulation formats are examined over the single mode fibre span. It is found that the dispersion managed soliton is not suitable for terrestrial style systems and that return-to-zero was the optimum format for the considered system.

Dispersion aspects of periodically amplified soliton transmission systems

This thesis presents improvements to optical transmission systems through the use of optical solitons as a digital transmission format, both theoretically and experimentally. An introduction to the main concepts and impairments of optical fibre on pulse transmission is included before introducing the concept of solitons in optically amplified communications and the problems of soliton system design. The theoretical work studies two fibre dispersion profiling schemes and a soliton launch improvement. The first provides superior pulse transmission by optimally tailoring the fibre dispersion to better follow the power, and hence nonlinearity, decay and thus allow soliton transmission for longer amplifier spacings and shorter pulse widths than normally possible. The second profiling scheme examines the use of dispersion compensating fibre in the context of soliton transmission over existing, standard fibre systems. The limits for solitons in uncompensated standard fibre are assessed, before the potential benefits of dispersion compensating fibre included as part of each amplifier are shown. The third theoretical investigation provides a simple improvement to the propagation of solitons in a highly perturbed system. By introducing a section of fibre of the correct length prior to the first system amplifier span, the soliton shape can be better coupled into the system thus providing an improved "average soliton" propagation model. The experimental work covers two areas. An important issue for soliton systems is pulse sources. Three potential lasers are studied, two ring laser configurations and one semiconductor device with external pulse shaping. The second area studies soliton transmission using a recalculating loop, reviewing the advantages and draw-backs of such an experiment in system testing and design. One particular example of employing the recirculating loop is also examined, using a novel method of pulse shape stabilisation over long distances with low jitter. The future for nonlinear optical communications is considered with the thesis conclusions.

A longitudinal study of the diffusion of the ISO/IEC information resource dictionary system standard (IRDS.)

The IRDS standard is an international standard produced by the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO). In this work the process for producing standards in formal standards organisations, for example the ISO, and in more informal bodies, for example the Object Management Group (OMG), is examined. This thesis examines previous models and classifications of standards. The previous models and classifications are then combined to produce a new classification. The IRDS standard is then placed in a class in the new model as a reference anticipatory standard. Anticipatory standards are standards which are developed ahead of the technology in order to attempt to guide the market. The diffusion of the IRDS is traced over a period of eleven years. The economic conditions which affect the diffusion of standards are examined, particularly the economic conditions which prevail in compatibility markets such as the IT and ICT markets. Additionally the consequences of the introduction of gateway or converter devices into a market where a standard has not yet been established is examined. The IRDS standard did not have an installed base and this hindered its diffusion. The thesis concludes that the IRDS standard was overtaken by new developments such as object oriented technologies and middleware. This was partly because of the slow development process of developing standards in traditional organisations which operate on a consensus basis and partly because the IRDS standard did not have an installed base. Also the rise and proliferation of middleware products resulted in exchange mechanisms becoming dominant rather than repository solutions. The research method used in this work is a longitudinal study of the development and diffusion of the ISO/EEC IRDS standard. The research is regarded as a single case study and follows the interpretative epistemological point of view.

Quality improvement in professional local government services : a longitudinal study

This sustained longitudinal study, carried out in a single local authority, investigates the implementation of a Total Quality Management (TQM) philosophy in professional local government services. At the start of this research, a large majority of what was written about TQM was polemical and based on limited empirical evidence. This thesis seeks to provide a significant and important piece of work, making a considerable contribution to the current state of knowledge in this area. Teams from four professional services within a single local authority participated in this research, providing the main evidence on how the quality management agenda in a local authority can be successfully implemented. To supplement this rich source of data, various other sources and methods of data collection have been used: 1) Interviews were carried out with senior managers from within the authority; 2) Customer focus groups and questionnaires were used; 3) Interviews were carried out with other organisations, all of which were proponents of a TQM philosophy. A number of tools have been developed to assist in gathering data: 1) The CSFs (critical success factors) benchmarking tool; 2) Five Stages of Quality Improvement Model. A Best Practice Quality Improvement Model, arising from an analysis of the literature and the researcher's own experience is proposed and tested. From the results a number of significant conclusions have been drawn relating to: 1) Triggers for change; 2) Resistance of local government professionals to change 3) Critical success factors and barriers to quality improvement in professional local government services; 4) The problems associated with participant observation and other methodological issues used.

Tuneable compensator of dispersion and slope using non-uniformly strained chirped fibre grating

Summary form only given. A novel method for tuning the second and the third order dispersion using a simple multi-point bending device has been demonstrated. A simple model has been developed that allows to calculate the exact bending profile required for compensation for the given values of dispersion and dispersion slope.

Dissipative dispersion-managed solitons in mode-locked lasers

We extend the theory of dispersion-managed solitons to dissipative systems with a focus on mode-locked fiber lasers. Dissipative structures exist at high map strengths, leading to the generation of stable, short pulses with high energy. Two types of intramap pulse evolution are observed depending on the net cavity dispersion. These are characterized by a reduced model, and semianalytical solutions are obtained.

Impact of third-order fibre dispersion on the evolution of parabolic optical pulses

We develop a perturbation analysis that describes the effect of third-order dispersion on the similariton pulse solution of the nonlinear Schrodinger equation in a fibre gain medium. The theoretical model predicts with sufficient accuracy the pulse structural changes induced, which are observed through direct numerical simulations.