Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

The Psychological Outcome of Religious Coping with Stressful Life Events in a Swiss Sample of Church Attendees

Background: Recent research suggested thatreligious coping, based on dispositional religiousness and spirituality (R/S), is an important modulating factor in the process of dealing with adversity. In contrast to the United States, the effect of R/S on psychological adjustment to stress is a widely unexplored area in Europe. Methods: We examined a Swiss sample of 328 church attendees in the aftermath of stressful life events to explore associations of positive or negative religious coping with the psychological outcome. Applying a cross-sectional design, we used Huber’s Centrality Scale to specify religiousness and Pargament’s measure of religious coping (RCOPE) for the assessment of positive and negative religious coping. Depressive symptoms and anxiety as outcome variables were examined by the Brief Symptom Inventory. The Stress-Related Growth Scale and the Marburg questionnaire for the assessment of well-being were used to assess positive outcome aspects. We conducted Mann-Whitney tests for group comparisons and cumulative logit analysis for the assessmentof associations of religious coping with our outcome variables. Results: Both forms of religious coping were positively associated with stress-related growth (p < 0.01). However, negative religious coping additionally reduced well-being (p = 0.05, β = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.27–0.99) and increased anxiety (p = 0.02, β = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.10–3.39) and depressive symptoms (p = 0.01, β = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.27–4.06). Conclusions: The effects of religious coping on the psychological adjustment to stressful life events seem relevant. These findings should be confirmed in prospective studies.

A significant effect of the KIR ligand HLA-C on fibrosis progression in chronic C hepatitis with or without liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS The interaction of KIR with their HLA ligands drives the activation and inhibition of natural killer (NK) cells. NK cells could be implicated in the development of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C. METHODS We analysed 206 non-transplanted and 53 liver transplanted patients, selected according to their Metavir fibrosis stage. Several variables such as the number of activator KIR or the HLA ligands were considered in multinomial and logistic regression models. Possible confounding variables were also investigated. RESULTS The KIRs were not significant predictors of the fibrosis stage. Conversely, a significant reduction of the HLA-C1C2 genotype was observed in the most advanced fibrosis stage group (F4) in both cohorts. Furthermore, the progression rate of fibrosis was almost 10 times faster in the subgroup of patients after liver transplantation and HLA-C1C2 was significantly reduced in this cohort compared to non-transplanted patients. CONCLUSION This study suggests a possible role of KIR and their ligands in the development of liver damage. The absence of C1 and C2 ligands heterozygosity could lead to less inhibition of NK cells and a quicker progression to a high level of fibrosis in patients infected by HCV, especially following liver transplantation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Übergangslösungen beim Eintritt in die Schweizer Berufsbildung: Brückenschlag oder Sackgasse?

In der Schweiz finden viele Jugendliche keinen direkten Zugang zu einer beruflichen Grundbildung; vielmehr durchlaufen sie zunächst eine so genannte Übergangslösung oder ein Brückenangebot wie z.B. ein zehntes Schuljahr. Wir beleuchten in diesem Beitrag zum einen, wie schulische, individuelle, familiäre und kontextuell-systemische Faktoren den Übertritt in solche Brückenangebote beeinflussen. Zum anderen gehen wir der Frage nach, wie sich ein verzögerter Einstieg via ein Brückenangebot auf die Chance auswirkt, einen Abschluss der Sekundarstufe II zu erwerben. Die empirische Analyse stützt sich auf die TREE-Studie, welche eine Kohorte von Schulentlassenen des Jahres 2000 längsschnittlich beobachtet. Wir modellieren dabei zunächst die interessierenden Übertrittsprozesse mittels einer multinomialen logistischen Regression, um dann mittels Propensity Score Matching deren Wirkung auf die nachobligatorischen Bildungschancen abzuschätzen.

An analysis of IN.PACT DEEP randomized trial on the limitations of the societal guidelines-recommended hemodynamic parameters to diagnose critical limb ischemia.

OBJECTIVE Recent small single-center data indicate that the current hemodynamic parameters used to diagnose critical limb ischemia are insensitive. We investigated the validity of the societal guidelines-recommended hemodynamic parameters against core laboratory-adjudicated angiographic data from the multicenter IN.PACT DEEP (RandomIzed AmPhirion DEEP DEB vs StAndard PTA for the treatment of below the knee Critical limb ischemia) Trial. METHODS Of the 358 patients in the IN.PACT DEEP Trial to assess drug-eluting balloon vs standard balloon angioplasty for infrapopliteal disease, 237 had isolated infrapopliteal disease with an available ankle-brachial index (ABI), and only 40 of the latter had available toe pressure measurements. The associations between ABI, ankle pressure, and toe pressure with tibial runoff, Rutherford category, and plantar arch were examined according to the cutoff points recommended by the societal guidelines. Abnormal tibial runoff was defined as severely stenotic (≥70%) or occluded and scored as one-, two-, or three-vessel disease. A stenotic or occluded plantar arch was considered abnormal. RESULTS Only 14 of 237 patients (6%) had an ABI <0.4. Abnormal ankle pressure, defined as <50 mm Hg if Rutherford category 4 and <70 mm Hg if Rutherford category 5 or 6, was found only in 37 patients (16%). Abnormal toe pressure, defined as <30 mm Hg if Rutherford category 4 and <50 mm Hg if Rutherford category 5 or 6, was found in 24 of 40 patients (60%) with available measurements. Importantly, 29% of these 24 patients had an ABI within normal reference ranges. A univariate multinomial logistic regression found no association between the above hemodynamic parameters and the number of diseased infrapopliteal vessels. However, there was a significant paradoxic association where patients with Rutherford category 6 had higher ABI and ankle pressure than those with Rutherford category 5. Similarly, there was no association between ABI and pedal arch patency. CONCLUSIONS The current recommended hemodynamic parameters fail to identify a significant portion of patients with lower extremity ulcers and angiographically proven severe disease. Toe pressure has better sensitivity and should be considered in all patients with critical limb ischemia.

Qualifikationsnachfrage und Arbeitsmarkteintritt in der Schweiz: Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel oder Arbeitslosigkeit

Berufsorientierte Bildungssysteme sind auf die Vermittlung von spezialisierten beruflichen Qualifikationen ausgelegt. Werden diese nach Abschluss einer beruflichen Grundbildung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wenig nachgefragt, riskieren die Absolventen, die erworbenen berufsspezifischen Qualifikationen nicht verwerten zu können. Dies trifft nicht nur zu, wenn Arbeitsmarkteinsteiger arbeitslos werden, sondern auch, wenn sie den Beruf wechseln müssen. Für die drei verschiedenen Optionen des Arbeitsmarkteinstiegs – Arbeit im erlernten Beruf, Berufswechsel und Arbeitslosigkeit – wird erstens untersucht, welche Bedeutung das individuell passende und das fachfremde Stellenangebot hat. Zweitens wird analysiert, wie eine unterschiedlich ausgeprägte Nachfrage nach fachspezifischen Qualifikationen die Bedeutung ausbildungsbezogener und individueller Merkmale für den Berufseinstieg verändert. Die Schweiz mit ihrem berufsorientierten Bildungssystem und berufsfachlich segmentieren Arbeitsmarkt dient als empirische Referenz. Die multinominalen logistischen Regressionsmodelle basieren auf den Daten des Schweizer Jugendpanels PISA2000/TREE. Die Individualdaten von Lehrabgänger werden auf Berufsebene, zeitpunkt- und regionsspezifisch mit dem individuell passenden und fachfremden Stellenangebot verknüpft, das auf den Stelleninseratendaten des Stellenmarktmonitors Schweiz (SMM) beruht. Dank dieser Verknüpfung von Angebot und Nachfrage nach beruflichen Qualifikationen auf der Mikroebene kann zum ersten Mal die grundlegende Bedeutung der Personalnachfrage für den Berufseinstieg nachgewiesen werden.

Multiple imputation for missing continuous and dichotomous data: The effects of patterns of missingness and variable correlations on type I error with small samples

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of predictor variable correlations and patterns of missingness with dichotomous and/or continuous data in small samples when missing data is multiply imputed. Missing data of predictor variables is multiply imputed under three different multivariate models: the multivariate normal model for continuous data, the multinomial model for dichotomous data and the general location model for mixed dichotomous and continuous data. Subsequent to the multiple imputation process, Type I error rates of the regression coefficients obtained with logistic regression analysis are estimated under various conditions of correlation structure, sample size, type of data and patterns of missing data. The distributional properties of average mean, variance and correlations among the predictor variables are assessed after the multiple imputation process. ^ For continuous predictor data under the multivariate normal model, Type I error rates are generally within the nominal values with samples of size n = 100. Smaller samples of size n = 50 resulted in more conservative estimates (i.e., lower than the nominal value). Correlation and variance estimates of the original data are retained after multiple imputation with less than 50% missing continuous predictor data. For dichotomous predictor data under the multinomial model, Type I error rates are generally conservative, which in part is due to the sparseness of the data. The correlation structure for the predictor variables is not well retained on multiply-imputed data from small samples with more than 50% missing data with this model. For mixed continuous and dichotomous predictor data, the results are similar to those found under the multivariate normal model for continuous data and under the multinomial model for dichotomous data. With all data types, a fully-observed variable included with variables subject to missingness in the multiple imputation process and subsequent statistical analysis provided liberal (larger than nominal values) Type I error rates under a specific pattern of missing data. It is suggested that future studies focus on the effects of multiple imputation in multivariate settings with more realistic data characteristics and a variety of multivariate analyses, assessing both Type I error and power. ^

Moment Based Inference with Stratified Data

Many datasets used by economists and other social scientists are collected by stratified sampling. The sampling scheme used to collect the data induces a probability distribution on the observed sample that differs from the target or underlying distribution for which inference is to be made. If this effect is not taken into account, subsequent statistical inference can be seriously biased. This paper shows how to do efficient semiparametric inference in moment restriction models when data from the target population is collected by three widely used sampling schemes: variable probability sampling, multinomial sampling, and standard stratified sampling.

Shirking and Motivation in Firms: Survey Evidence on Worker Attitudes

In an extensive national survey, 82.7% of the respondents report that they are very likely to keep an agreement to work hard if they agreed to, even if it was almost impossible for their employer to monitor them. Based on mean responses, the rank order of motivations in descending importance is: moral, intrinsic, peer-pressure, and positive incentives. Respondents also report that fairness considerations are important and that they are especially likely to keep agreements to do a good job with honest employers. Logit analysis indicates that increases in moral and intrinsic motivations increase the likelihood of keeping agreements to provide effort. The evidence suggests that we need to re-examine a foundational assumption underlying the theory of the firm.

Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

Does parental monitoring influence the use of alcohol and drugs among inner city 7th grade students?

Objective. To examine associations between parental monitoring and adolescent alcohol/drug use. ^ Methods. 981 7th grade students from 10 inner-city middle schools were surveyed at the 3 month follow-up of an HIV, STD, and pregnancy prevention program. Data from 549 control subjects were used for analyses. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine associations between five parental monitoring variables and substance use, coded as: low risk [never drank alcohol or used drugs (0)], moderate risk [drank alcohol, no drug use (1)], and high risk [both drank alcohol and used drugs or just used drugs (2)]. ^ Results. Participants were 58.3% female, 39.6% African American, 43.8% Hispanic, mean age 13.3 years. Lifetime alcohol use was 47.9%. Lifetime drug use was 14.9%. Adjusted for gender, age, race, and family structure, each individual parental monitoring variable (perceived parental monitoring, less permissive parental monitoring, greater supervision (public places), greater supervision (teen clubs), and less time spent with older teens) was significant and protective for the moderate and high risk groups. When all 5 variables were entered into a single model, only perceived parental monitoring was significantly associated (OR=0.40, 95% CI 0.29-0.55) for the moderate risk group. For the high risk group, 3 variables were significantly protective (perceived parental monitoring OR=0.28, CI 0.18-0.42, less time spent with older teens OR=0.75, CI 0.60-0.93, and greater supervision (public places) OR=0.79, CI 0.64-0.99). ^ Conclusion. The association between parental monitoring and substance abuse is complex and varied for different risk levels. Implications for intervention development are addressed. ^

Changing epidemiology of trauma deaths leads to a bimodal distribution

Introduction. Injury mortality was classically described with a tri-modal distribution, with immediate deaths at the scene, early deaths due to hemorrhage, and late deaths from organ failure. We hypothesized that trauma systems development have improved pre-hospital care, early resuscitation, and critical care, and altered this pattern. ^ Methods. This is a population-based study of all trauma deaths in an urban county with a mature trauma system (n=678, median age 33 years, 81% male, 43% gunshot, 20% motor vehicle crashes). Deaths were classified as immediate (scene), early (in hospital, ≤ 4 hours from injury), or late (>4 hours post injury). Multinomial regression was used to identify independent predictors of immediate and early vs. late deaths, adjusted for age, gender, race, intention, mechanism, toxicology and cause of death. ^ Results. There were 416 (61%) immediate, 199 (29%) early, and 63 (10%) late deaths. Immediate deaths remained unchanged and early deaths occurred much earlier (median 52 minutes vs. 120). However, unlike the classic trimodal distribution, there was no late peak. Intentional injuries, alcohol intoxication, asphyxia, and injuries to the head and chest were independent predictors of immediate deaths. Alcohol intoxication and injuries to the chest were predictors of early deaths, while pelvic fractures and blunt assaults were associated with late deaths. ^ Conclusion. Trauma deaths now have a bimodal distribution. Elimination of the late peak likely represents advancements in resuscitation and critical care that have reduced organ failure. Further reductions in mortality will likely come from prevention of intentional injuries, and injuries associated with alcohol intoxication. ^

HPV vaccine coverage in Texas counties: An application of multilevel, small area estimation

Health departments, research institutions, policy-makers, and healthcare providers are often interested in knowing the health status of their clients/constituents. Without the resources, financially or administratively, to go out into the community and conduct health assessments directly, these entities frequently rely on data from population-based surveys to supply the information they need. Unfortunately, these surveys are ill-equipped for the job due to sample size and privacy concerns. Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have excellent potential in such circumstances, but have been underutilized in public health due to lack of awareness and confidence in applying its methods. The goal of this research is to make model-based SAE accessible to a broad readership using clear, example-based learning. Specifically, we applied the principles of multilevel, unit-level SAE to describe the geographic distribution of HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas.^ Multilevel (3 level: individual, county, public health region) random-intercept logit models of HPV vaccination (receipt of ≥ 1 dose Gardasil® ) were fit to data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (outcome and level 1 covariates) and a number of secondary sources (group-level covariates). Sampling weights were scaled (level 1) or constructed (levels 2 & 3), and incorporated at every level. Using the regression coefficients (and standard errors) from the final models, I simulated 10,000 datasets for each regression coefficient from the normal distribution and applied them to the logit model to estimate HPV vaccine coverage in each county and respective demographic subgroup. For simplicity, I only provide coverage estimates (and 95% confidence intervals) for counties.^ County-level coverage among females aged 11-17 varied from 6.8-29.0%. For females aged 18-26, coverage varied from 1.9%-23.8%. Aggregated to the state level, these values translate to indirect state estimates of 15.5% and 11.4%, respectively; both of which fall within the confidence intervals for the direct estimates of HPV vaccine coverage in Texas (Females 11-17: 17.7%, 95% CI: 13.6, 21.9; Females 18-26: 12.0%, 95% CI: 6.2, 17.7).^ Small area estimation has great potential for informing policy, program development and evaluation, and the provision of health services. Harnessing the flexibility of multilevel, unit-level SAE to estimate HPV vaccine coverage among females aged 11-26 in Texas counties, I have provided (1) practical guidance on how to conceptualize and conduct modelbased SAE, (2) a robust framework that can be applied to other health outcomes or geographic levels of aggregation, and (3) HPV vaccine coverage data that may inform the development of health education programs, the provision of health services, the planning of additional research studies, and the creation of local health policies.^

Posttraumatic stress disorder among veterans of the Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) wars: Psychological comorbidities, postdeployment social support and unit support

Much attention has been given to treating Operation Iraqi Freedom/Operation Enduring (OIF/OEF) Veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, little attention is given to those Veterans who do not meet diagnostic criteria for PTSD but who may still benefit from intervention. Research is needed to investigate the impact of how different racial/ethnic backgrounds, different levels of social support and comorbid mental health disorders impact OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD. The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the association of comorbid Axis I disorders, race/ethnicity, different levels of postdeployment social support and unit support on OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD. Data for this dissertation were from postdeployment screenings of OIF/OEF Veterans from a large Veterans Affairs hospital in southeast Texas. To examine the study hypotheses, we conducted multinomial logistic regressions of the clinician reported data. ^ The first article examined the prevalence of subthreshold and full levels of PTSD and compared Axis I and alcohol use comorbidity rates among 1,362 OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD. Results suggest that OIF/OEF Veterans with subthreshold PTSD experience similar levels of psychological distress as those with full PTSD and highlight the need to provide timely and appropriate mental health services to individuals who may not meet the diagnostic criteria for full PTSD. ^ These results suggest that OIF/OEF Veterans of all race/ethnicities can benefit from strong social support systems. Postdeployment social support was found to be a protective factor against the development of PTSD among White, Black and Hispanic veterans while deployment unit support was a protective factor only among Black Veterans. The second article investigated the association between postdeployment social support and unit support with varying levels of PTSD by race/ethnicity among 1,115 OIF/OEF Veterans. ^ The results of this study can help to formulate treatment and interventions for OIF/OEF Veterans with varying levels of PTSD and social support systems.^

The prevalence of periodontal disease in Mexican American vs European American elderly in three distinct socio-economic communities in San Antonio, Texas

Purpose of the Study: This study evaluated the prevalence of periodontal disease between Mexican American elderly and European American elderly residing in three socio-economically distinct neighborhoods in San Antonio, Texas. ^ Study Group: Subjects for the original protocol were participants of the Oral Health: San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging (OH: SALSA), which began with National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding in 1993 (M.J. Saunders, PI). The cohort in the study was the individuals who had been enrolled in Phases I and III of the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS). This SAHS/SALSA sample is a community-based probability sample of Mexican American and European American residents from three socio-economically distinct San Antonio neighborhoods: low-income barrio, middle-income transitional, and upper-income suburban. The OH: SALSA cohort was established between July 1993 and May 1998 by sampling two subsets of the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) cohort. These subsets included the San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging (SALSA) cohort, comprised of the oldest members of the SAHS (age 65+ yrs. old), and a younger set of controls (age 35-64 yrs. old) sampled from the remainder of the SAHS cohort. ^ Methods: The study used simple descriptive statistics to describe the sociodemographic characteristics and periodontal disease indicators of the OH: SALSA participants. Means and standard deviations were used to summarize continuous measures. Proportions were used to summarize categorical measures. Simple m x n chi square statistics was used to compare ethnic differences. A multivariable ordered logit regression was used to estimate the prevalence of periodontal disease and test ethnic group and neighborhood differences in the prevalence of periodontal disease. A multivariable model adjustment for socio-economic status (income and education), gender, and age (treated as confounders) was applied. ^ Summary: In the unadjusted and adjusted model, Mexican American elderly demonstrated the greatest prevalence for periodontitis, p < 0.05. Mexican American elderly in barrio neighborhoods demonstrated the greatest prevalence for severe periodontitis, with unadjusted prevalence rates of 31.7%, 22.3%, and 22.4% for Mexican American elderly barrio, transitional, and suburban neighborhoods, respectively. Also, Mexican American elderly had adjusted prevalence rates of 29.4%, 23.7%, and 20.4% for barrio, transitional, and suburban neighborhoods, respectively. ^ Conclusion: This study indicates that the prevalence of periodontal disease is an important oral health issue among the Mexican American elderly. The results suggest that the socioeconomic status of the residential neighborhood increased the risk for severe periodontal disease among the Mexican American elderly when compared to European American elderly. A viable approach to recognizing oral health disparities in our growing population of Mexican American elderly is imperative for the provision of special care programs that will help increase the quality of care in this minority population.^