The Myth of Labour-Management Partnerships and the Risk to Labour: A CAMI Automotive Study

The purpose of this study is to examine and explore the level of risk that CAMI workers confront under their existing labour-management partnership arrangement. Risk is explored using two distinct categories, distributive and political. Distributive risk is expressed as tangibly substantive, reflecting the real terms and conditions of employment, and the changing social relations of production on the floor. The second type of risk is political and is concerned with the effects that labour-management partnerships have on the displacement of unions as legitimate agents of/for workers within the workplace. Data was collected using three methods; content analysis, cross-sectional survey and focus group interviews. The study revealed that CAMI workers are exposed to both distributive and political risk under their current LMP arrangement.

Managing Antimicrobial Resistance In Food Production : Conflicts Of Interest And Politics In The Development Of Public Health Policy

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing public health concern and is associated with the over or inappropriate use of antimicrobials in both humans and agriculture. While there has been recognition of this problem on the part of agricultural and public health authorities, there has nonetheless been significant difficulty in translating policy recommendations into practical guidelines. In this paper, we examine the process of public health policy development in Quebec agriculture, with a focus on the case of pork production and the role of food animal veterinarians in policy making. We argue that a tendency to employ strictly techno-scientific risk analyses of antimicrobial use ignores the fundamental social, economic and political realities of key stakeholders and so limits the applicability of policy recommendations developed by government advisory groups. In particular, we suggest that veterinarians’ personal and professional interests, and their ethical norms of practice, are key factors to both the problem of and the solution to the current over-reliance on antimicrobials in food production.

On the design of customized risk measures in insurance, the problem of capital allocation and the theory of fluctuations for Lévy processes

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions quelques problèmes fondamentaux en mathématiques financières et actuarielles, ainsi que leurs applications. Cette thèse est constituée de trois contributions portant principalement sur la théorie de la mesure de risques, le problème de l’allocation du capital et la théorie des fluctuations. Dans le chapitre 2, nous construisons de nouvelles mesures de risque cohérentes et étudions l’allocation de capital dans le cadre de la théorie des risques collectifs. Pour ce faire, nous introduisons la famille des "mesures de risque entropique cumulatifs" (Cumulative Entropic Risk Measures). Le chapitre 3 étudie le problème du portefeuille optimal pour le Entropic Value at Risk dans le cas où les rendements sont modélisés par un processus de diffusion à sauts (Jump-Diffusion). Dans le chapitre 4, nous généralisons la notion de "statistiques naturelles de risque" (natural risk statistics) au cadre multivarié. Cette extension non-triviale produit des mesures de risque multivariées construites à partir des données financiéres et de données d’assurance. Le chapitre 5 introduit les concepts de "drawdown" et de la "vitesse d’épuisement" (speed of depletion) dans la théorie de la ruine. Nous étudions ces concepts pour des modeles de risque décrits par une famille de processus de Lévy spectrallement négatifs.

Impact of Western Ghats Orography on the Weather and Climate over Southern Peninsular India-A Mesoscale Modelling Study

The thesis gives a general introduction about the topic include India, the spatial and temporal variation of the surface meteorological parameters are dealt in detail. The general pattern of the winds over the region in different seasons and the generation and movements of the thermally and dynamically originated local wind systems of Western Ghats region has been studied. The modification of the prevailing winds over region by the Palghat Gap and its effect on the mouth regions pf the gap is analysed in great depth. The thesis gives the information of climatic elements of the mountain region such as energy budgets, rainfall studies, evaporation and condensation and the variation in the heat fluxes over the region. The impact of orography is studied in a different approach. The type of hypothetical study gives more insight into the control of mountain on the distribution of meteorological parameter over the study region and helps to quantify the impact of the mountain in varying the weather climate of region. The detailed study of the hydro-meteorological aspects of the main river basins of the region also should be included to the climatic studies for the total understanding of the weather and climate over the region.

Work and economic security in the 21st century

In recent decades there has been a transformation of two central concepts of modernity – labour and the household. Ela Bhatt – the founder of the Self-Employed Women’s Association of India (SEWA), has made an important contribution to this transformation. Through the emergence of unions such as SEWA, the notion of who represents labour is being broadened; the marginalised are finding an institutional voice. Increasingly, the household is being recognised as a site of both production and reproduction. SEWA is not a traditional trade union that aims, through collective bargaining with an employer, to improve its members’ wages and working conditions as sellers of their labour power. Instead, it aims to empower women economically in the informal economy by bringing them into the mainstream economy as owners of their labour. The union dimension of SEWA builds their collective power through struggle; the cooperative dimension translates their bargaining power into the economic and social development of its members and their community. Besides, Bhatt’s approach to the self-employed was a direct challenge to the ILO’s tripartism when it was established in the early seventies. The first part of the paper provides a short biography of Ela Bhatt, describes the origins of SEWA, analyses a ‘classification struggle’ over how and who is to define what a worker is. In the second part the author considers SEWAs innovative organizing strategy and is rethinking modernity in the labour context. In the conclusion the paper discusses the lessons that can be learnt from Ela Bhatt.

Organic solvents as risk factor for autoimmune diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Genetic and epigenetic factors interacting with the environment over time are the main causes of complex diseases such as autoimmune diseases (ADs). Among the environmental factors are organic solvents (OSs), which are chemical compounds used routinely in commercial industries. Since controversy exists over whether ADs are caused by OSs, a systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to assess the association between OSs and ADs. Methods and Findings: The systematic search was done in the PubMed, SCOPUS, SciELO and LILACS databases up to February 2012. Any type of study that used accepted classification criteria for ADs and had information about exposure to OSs was selected. Out of a total of 103 articles retrieved, 33 were finally included in the meta-analysis. The final odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained by the random effect model. A sensitivity analysis confirmed results were not sensitive to restrictions on the data included. Publication bias was trivial. Exposure to OSs was associated to systemic sclerosis, primary systemic vasculitis and multiple sclerosis individually and also to all the ADs evaluated and taken together as a single trait (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.25-1.92; p-value, 0.001). Conclusion: Exposure to OSs is a risk factor for developing ADs. As a corollary, individuals with non-modifiable risk factors (i.e., familial autoimmunity or carrying genetic factors) should avoid any exposure to OSs in order to avoid increasing their risk of ADs.

Musealising hope: reflections on the saga of an artistic installation of human solidarity

“Musealising hope” reflects on the trials and tribulations of an installation designed as a tribute to the struggle for survival of African peoples who dare make the long trek to Europe by sea. Its accomplishment involved a number of players whose conduct and reactions to events bear witness to the manner in which artists, the media, heads of cultural institutions, museologists, welfare institutions, and politicians cope with the phenomenon of immigration and with our present-day multicultural societies. In turn, this artistic endeavour and its symbolic signification highlight the changes which art and culture have undergone over the past few years and the kind of transformation which new inter-ethnic communities have brought to bear on concepts such as national heritage, identity or memory.

Impact of Tibetan Orography and Heating on the Summer Flow over Asia

The influence on the summer flow over Asia of both the orographic and thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau is investigated using a sequence of idealised experiments with a global primitive equation model. The zonally averaged flow is prescribed and both realistic and idealised orography and heating are used. There is some similarity between the responses to the two forcings when applied separately. The upper tropospheric Tibetan anticyclone is predominantly forced by the heating but also weakly by the orography. Below this, both forcings tend to give air descending in an equatorward anticyclonic circulation down the isentropes to the west and rising in a similar poleward circulation to the east. However the heating-only response has a strong ascending southwesterly flow that is guided around the south and south-east of the orography when it is included. On the northern side, the westerly flow over the orography gives ascent on the upslope and descent on the downslope. It is found that heating over the Plateau leads to a potential vorticity (PV) minimum and that if it is sufficiently strong the flow is unstable, producing a quasi-biweekly oscillation. During this oscillation the Tibetan anticyclone changes between a single centre over the southwestern side of the Plateau and a split/double structure with centres over China and the Middle East. These characteristics are similar to observed variability in the region. Associated with this quasi-biweekly oscillation are significant variations in the strength of the ascent over the Plateau and the Rossby wave pattern over the North Pacific. The origin of the variability is instability associated with the zonally extended potential vorticity PV minimum on a θ-surface, as proposed by Hsu and Plumb (2000). This minimum is due to the tendency to reduce the PV above the heating over the Plateau and to advection by the consequent anticyclone of high PV around from the east and low PV to the west. The deep convection to the south and southeast of the Plateau tends to suppress the quasi-biweekly oscillation because the low PV produced above it acts to reduce the meridional PV gradient reversal. The occurrence of the oscillation depends on the relative magnitude of the heating in the two regions.

Radar studies of the vertical distribution of insects migrating over southern Britain: the influence of temperature inversions on nocturnal layer concentrations

Insects migrating over two sites in southern UK (Malvern in Worcestershire, and Harpenden in Hertfordshire) have been monitored continuously with nutating vertical-looking radars (VLRs) equipped with powerful control and analysis software. These observations make possible, for the first time, a systematic investigation of the vertical distribution of insect aerial density in the atmosphere, over temporal scales ranging from the short (instantaneous vertical profiles updated every 15 min) to the very long (profiles aggregated over whole seasons or even years). In the present paper, an outline is given of some general features of insect stratification as revealed by the radars, followed by a description of occasions during warm nights in the summer months when intense insect layers developed. Some of these nocturnal layers were due to the insects flying preferentially at the top of strong surface temperature inversions, and in other cases, layering was associated with higher-altitude temperature maxima, such as those due to subsidence inversions. The layers were formed from insects of a great variety of sizes, but peaks in the mass distributions pointed to a preponderance of medium-sized noctuid moths on certain occasions.

Including a time-of-year effect in the analysis of a matched case-control study

Motivated by a matched case-control study to investigate potential risk factors for meningococcal disease amongst adolescents, we consider the analysis of matched case-control studies where disease incidence, and possibly other risk factors, vary with time of year. For the cases, the time of infection may be recorded. For controls, however, the recorded time is simply the time of data collection, which is shortly after the time of infection for the matched case, and so depends on the latter. We show that the effect of risk factors and interactions may be adjusted for the time of year effect in a standard conditional logistic regression analysis without introducing any bias. We also show that, if the time delay between data collection for cases and controls is constant, provided this delay is not very short, estimates of the time of year effect are approximately unbiased. In the case that the length of the delay varies over time, the estimate of the time of year effect is biased. We obtain an approximate expression for the degree of bias in this case. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of two methods of presenting risk information to patients about the side effects of medicines

Objective: To determine whether the use of verbal descriptors suggested by the European Union (EU) such as "common" (1-10% frequency) and "rare" (0.01-0.1%) effectively conveys the level of risk of side effects to people taking a medicine. Design: Randomised controlled study with unconcealed allocation. Participants: 120 adults taking simvastatin or atorvastatin after cardiac surgery or myocardial infarction. Setting: Cardiac rehabilitation clinics at two hospitals in Leeds, UK. Intervention: A written statement about one of the side effects of the medicine (either constipation or pancreatitis). Within each side effect condition half the patients were given the information in verbal form and half in numerical form (for constipation, "common" or 2.5%; for pancreatitis, "rare" or 0.04%). Main outcome measure: The estimated likelihood of the side effect occurring. Other outcome measures related to the perceived severity of the side effect, its risk to health, and its effect on decisions about whether to take the medicine. Results: The mean likelihood estimate given for the constipation side effect was 34.2% in the verbal group and 8.1% in the numerical group; for pancreatitis it was 18% in the verbal group and 2.1% in the numerical group. The verbal descriptors were associated with more negative perceptions of the medicine than their equivalent numerical descriptors. Conclusions: Patients want and need understandable information about medicines and their risks and benefits. This is essential if they are to become partners in medicine taking. The use of verbal descriptors to improve the level of information about side effect risk leads to overestimation of the level of harm and may lead patients to make inappropriate decisions about whether or not they take the medicine.

Patients' understanding of risk associated with medication use: impact of European Commission guidelines and other risk scales

Patients want and need comprehensive and accurate information about their medicines so that they can participate in decisions about their healthcare: In particular, they require information about the likely risks and benefits that are associated with the different treatment options. However, to provide this information in a form that people can readily understand and use is a considerable challenge to healthcare professionals. One recent attempt to standardise the Language of risk has been to produce sets of verbal descriptors that correspond to specific probability ranges, such as those outlined in the European Commission (EC) Pharmaceutical Committee guidelines in 1998 for describing the incidence of adverse effects. This paper provides an overview of a number of studies involving members of the general public, patients, and hospital doctors, that evaluated the utility of the EC guideline descriptors (very common, common, uncommon, rare, very rare). In all studies it was found that people significantly over-estimated the likelihood of adverse effects occurring, given specific verbal descriptors. This in turn resulted in significantly higher ratings of their perceived risks to health and significantly lower ratings of their likelihood of taking the medicine. Such problems of interpretation are not restricted to the EC guideline descriptors. Similar levels of misinterpretation have also been demonstrated with two other recently advocated risk scales (Caiman's verbal descriptor scale and Barclay, Costigan and Davies' lottery scale). In conclusion, the challenge for risk communicators and for future research will be to produce a language of risk that is sufficiently flexible to take into account different perspectives, as well as changing circumstances and contexts of illness and its treatments. In the meantime, we urge the EC and other legislative bodies to stop recommending the use of specific verbal labels or phrases until there is a stronger evidence base to support their use.

Quantifying the impact of land-use change on European farmland bird populations

The EU has adopted the European Farmland Bird Index (EFBI) as a Structural and Sustainable Development Indicator and a proxy for wider biodiversity health on farmland. Changes in the EFBI over coming years are likely to reflect how well agri-environment schemes (AES), funded under Pillar 2 (Axis 2) of the Common Agricultural Policy, have been able to offset the detrimental impacts of past agricultural changes and deliver appropriate hazard prevention or risk mitigation strategies alongside current and future agricultural change. The delivery of a stable or positive trend in the EFBI will depend on the provision of sufficient funding to appropriately designed and implemented AES. We present a trait-based framework which can be used to quantify the detrimental impact of land-use change on farmland bird populations across Europe. We use the framework to show that changes in resource availability within the cropped area of agricultural landscapes have been the key driver of current declines in farmland bird populations. We assess the relative contribution of each Member State to the level of the EFBI and explore the relationship between risk contribution and Axis 2 funding allocation. Our results suggest that agricultural changes in each Member State do not have an equal impact on the EFBI, with land-use and management change in Spain having a particularly large influence on its level, and that funding is poorly targeted with respect to biodiversity conservation needs. We also use the framework to predict the EFBI in 2020 for a number of land-use change scenarios. This approach can be used to guide both the development and implementation of targeted AES and the objective distribution of Pillar 2 funds between and within Member States. We hope that this will contribute to the cost-effective and efficient delivery of Rural Development strategy and biodiversity conservation targets.

Numerical modeling of the propagation environment in the atmospheric boundary layer over the Persian Gulf

Strong vertical gradients at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves and can produce radar ducts. A three-dimensional, time-dependent, nonhydrostatic numerical model was used to simulate the propagation environment in the atmosphere over the Persian Gulf when aircraft observations of ducting had been made. A division of the observations into high- and low-wind cases was used as a framework for the simulations. Three sets of simulations were conducted with initial conditions of varying degrees of idealization and were compared with the observations taken in the Ship Antisubmarine Warfare Readiness/Effectiveness Measuring (SHAREM-115) program. The best results occurred with the initialization based on a sounding taken over the coast modified by the inclusion of data on low-level atmospheric conditions over the Gulf waters. The development of moist, cool, stable marine internal boundary layers (MIBL) in air flowing from land over the waters of the Gulf was simulated. The MIBLs were capped by temperature inversions and associated lapses of humidity and refractivity. The low-wind MIBL was shallower and the gradients at its top were sharper than in the high-wind case, in agreement with the observations. Because it is also forced by land–sea contrasts, a sea-breeze circulation frequently occurs in association with the MIBL. The size, location, and internal structure of the sea-breeze circulation were realistically simulated. The gradients of temperature and humidity that bound the MIBL cause perturbations in the refractivity distribution that, in turn, lead to trapping layers and ducts. The existence, location, and surface character of the ducts were well captured. Horizontal variations in duct characteristics due to the sea-breeze circulation were also evident. The simulations successfully distinguished between high- and low-wind occasions, a notable feature of the SHAREM-115 observations. The modeled magnitudes of duct depth and strength, although leaving scope for improvement, were most encouraging.

A randomised trial to investigate the effects of acute consumption of a blackcurrant juice drink on markers of vascular reactivity and bioavailability of anthocyanins in human subjects

Objective: To study the bioavailability of anthocyanins and the effects of a 20% blackcurrant juice drink on vascular reactivity, plasma antioxidant status and other CVD risk markers. Subjects/Methods: The study was a randomised, cross over, double blind, placebo controlled acute meal study. Twenty healthy volunteers (11 females 9 males) were recruited, and all subjects completed the study. Fasted volunteers consumed a 20% blackcurrant juice drink (250 ml) or a control drink following a low-flavonoid diet for the previous 72 hours. Vascular reactivity was assessed at baseline and 120 mins after juice consumption by Laser Doppler Imaging (LDI). Plasma and urine samples were collected periodically over an 8 hour period for analysis, with a final urine sample collected at 24h. The cross over was performed after a 4-week washout. Results: There were no significant effects of the 20% blackcurrant juice drink on acute measures of vascular reactivity, biomarkers of endothelial function or lipid risk factors. Consumption of the test juice caused increases in plasma vitamin C (P=0.006), and urinary anthocyanins (P<0.001). Delphinidin-3-rutinoside and cyanidin-3-rutinoside were the main anthocyanins excreted in urine with delphinidin-3-glucoside also detected. The yield of anthocyanins in urine was 0.021 ± 0.003% of the dietary intake of delphinidin glycosides and 0.009 ± 0.002 % of the dietary intake of cyanidin glycosides. Conclusions: The juice consumption did not have a significant effect on vascular reactivity. Anthocyanins were present at low concentrations in the urine, and microbial metabolites of flavonoids were detected in plasma after juice consumption.