Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Two Bubbles Thermocapillary Migration Experimental System

An experimental investigation will be performed on the thermocapillary motion of two bubbles in Chinese return-satellite. The experiment will study the migration process of bubble caused by thermocapillary effect in microgravity environment, and their interaction between two bubbles. The bubble is driven by the thermocapillary stress on the surface on account on the variation of the surface tension with temperature. The interaction between two bubbles becomes significant as the separation distance between them is reduced drastically so that the bubble interaction has to be considered. Recently, the problem has been discussed on the method of successive reflections, and accurate migration velocities of two arbitrarily oriented bubbles were derived for the limit of small Marangoni and Reynolds numbers. Numerical results for the migration of the two bubbles show that the interaction between two bubbles has significant influence on their thermocapillary migration velocities with a bubble approaching another. However, there is a lack of experimental validate for the theoretic results. Now the experimental facility is designed for experimenting time after time. A cone-shaped top cover is used to expel bubble from the cell after experiment. But, the cone-shaped top cover can cause temperature uniformity on horizontal plane in whole cell. Therefore, a metal board with multi-holes is fixed under the top cover. The board is able to let the temperature distribution on the board uniform because of their high heat conductivity, and the bubble can pass through it. In the system two bubbles are injected into the test cell respectively by two sets of cylinder. And the bubbles sizes are controlled by two sets of step-by-step motor. It is very important problem that bubble can be divorced from the injecting mouth in microgravity environment. Thus, other two sets of device for injecting mother liquid were used to push bubble. The working principle of injecting mother liquid is to utilize pressure difference directly between test cell and reservoir

Rayleigh-Marangoni-Bénard Convective Instability

The Rayleigh-Marangoni-Benard convective instability (R-M-B instability) and flow patterns in the two-layer system of silicon oil 10cSt and Fluorinert FC70 liquids are studied theoretically and experimentally. Both linear instability analysis and 2D numerical simulation (A=L/H=10) were performed to study the influence of thermocapillary force on the convective instability of the two-layer system. Time-dependent oscillations arising at the onset of convection were investigated in a larger various range of two-layer depth ratios (Hr=H1/H2) from 0.2 to 5.0 for different total depth less than 12mm. Our results are different from the previous study on the Rayleig-B閚ard instability and show the strong effects of thermocapillary force at the interface on the time-dependent oscillations at the onset of instability convection. Primary experimental results of the critical instability parameters and the convective structure in the R-M-B convection have been obtained by using the digital particle image velocimetry (DPIV) system, and a good agreement in comparison with the results of numerical simulation was obtained.

Experimental Study on Surface Deformation and Surface Wave of Fluid Convection with Free Surface

An optical diagnostic system consisting of Michelson interferometer with image processor has been developed for study of the kinetics of thermal capillary convection and buoyancy convection. This optical interferometer has been used to observe and measure surface deformation and surface wave of capillary convection and buoyancy convection in a rectangular cavity with different temperature’s sidewalls. Fourier transformation is used to image processing. The quantitative results of surface deformation and surface wave have been calculated from the interference fringe pattern. With the increasing of temperature gradient, the liquid surface slant gradually. It’s deformation has been calculated, which is related directly with temperature gradient. This is one of the characters introducing convection. Another interesting phenomenon is the inclining direction, which is different when the liquid layer is thin or thick. When the liquid layer is thin, convection is mainly controlled by thermocapillary effect. However, When the liquid layer is thick, convection is mainly controlled by buoyancy effect. Surface deformation in the present experiment are more and more declining in this process. The present experiment proved that surface deformation appears before the appearance of surface wave on fluid convection, it is related with temperature gradient, and the height of liquid layer, and lies on capillary convection and buoyancy convection. The present experiment also demonstrates that the amplitude of surface wave of thermocapillary-buoyancy convection is much smaller than surface deformation, the wave is covered by deformation.