Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.

A Scalable Synthesis of the Difluoromethyl-allo-threonyl Hydroxamate-Based LpxC Inhibitor LPC-058.

The difluoromethyl-allo-threonyl hydroxamate-based compound LPC-058 is a potent inhibitor of UDP-3-O-(R-3-hydroxymyristoyl)-N-acetylglucosamine deacetylase (LpxC) in Gram-negative bacteria. A scalable synthesis of this compound is described. The key step in the synthetic sequence is a transition metal/base-catalyzed aldol reaction of methyl isocyanoacetate and difluoroacetone, giving rise to 4-(methoxycarbonyl)-5,5-disubstituted 2-oxazoline. A simple NMR-based determination of enantiomeric purity is also described.

Integrating Scientific Publication into an Applied Gaming Ecosystem

Salman, M. et al. (2016). Integrating Scientific Publication into an Applied Gaming Ecosystem. GSTF Journal on Computing (JoC), Volume 5 (Issue 1), pp. 45-51.

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results showthat reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm–2 (40Wm–2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964–1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).