Production and Delivery (Optimization of production system and reliability)

This thesis is done to solve two issues for Sayid Paper Mill Ltd Pakistan. Section one deals with a practical problem arise in SPM that is cutting a given set of raw paper rolls of known length and width, and a set of product paper rolls of known length (equal to the length of raw paper rolls) and width, practical cutting constraints on a single cutting machine, according to demand orders for all customers. To solve this problem requires to determine an optimal cutting schedule to maximize the overall cutting process profitability while satisfying all demands and cutting constraints. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a mathematical model which solves this problem.Second section deals with a problem of delivering final product from warehouse to different destinations by finding shortest paths. It is an operational routing problem to decide the daily routes for sending trucks to different destination to deliver their final product. This industrial problem is difficult and includes aspect such as delivery to a single destination and multiple destinations with limited resources. The aim of this part of thesis is to develop a process which helps finding shortest path.

A proposed Model for Country Branding : an experimental Application on Nigeria

In the era of globalization, countries compete with each other for attention, respect and trust of potential consumers, investors, tourists, media and governments of other nations. Branding is the most powerful tool that a nation can utilize for effective differentiation strategies and for creating competitive advantage over other nations. Unfortunately, not every nations or destination marketers have a broad understanding of the concept of branding and how a country can be successfully branded. Hence, this study has proposed a model that could be used as a valuable guide for country branding. Also the model is recommended for countries struggling with image crisis; on the mission to improve the image internationally. Nigeria is a good example of countries with image crisis; it is one of the most populated countries in the world with a population of about 160 million inhabitants and growth rate of 2.553percent annually. Despite the abundant resources (e.g. coal, petroleum, natural gas etc.) that the nation is endowed with, it is quite disappointing that the population below poverty line is still at the alarming rate of 70percent of the total population. The mismanagement and poor leadership of the nation characterised by corruption, fraud, embezzlement of public fund etc. has culminated into serious image crisis that is slowing down the potential for investment and economic growth. However, there has been series of image rebranding campaigns but no tangible achievement has been recorded. It is quite questionable though, if image rebranding will provide the kind of future that Nigeria envisaged, considering the socio-political situation and the economic imbalance; compounded by the obvious fact that the nation has no known brand. Therefore, this paper argues that there is need to redirect the effort invested on image rebranding to the creation of a unique and competitive brand for the country. It was established from the study that a nation’s brand is capable of improving the reputation of the nation as well as stimulate the expectation of the target audience. However, it was also established from the study that a wrong approach to branding could mislead the target audience and attract negative publicity. Hence, as a contribution of the study to the field of branding, a model was proposed as a functional guide for country branding. Also, considering the abysmal performance of Nigeria’s image in the international community and to strengthen the argument that brand creation is required for the country; an experimental application of the proposed model was conducted using Nigeria as the case country. The first phase of the model suggested a major improvement in the society; this is required to further enhance the strengths of the country and to motivate the much needed community participation and confidence in the brand creation. It is the conclusion of the study that a strong nation brand can offset the image problem if it is built on something concrete, genuine, and uniquely identifiable with the country, capable of connecting to the cognitive psychology of the target audience.

Simulation model using meta heuristic algorithms for achieving optimal arrangement of storage bins in a sawmill yard

Bin planning (arrangements) is a key factor in the timber industry. Improper planning of the storage bins may lead to inefficient transportation of resources, which threaten the overall efficiency and thereby limit the profit margins of sawmills. To address this challenge, a simulation model has been developed. However, as numerous alternatives are available for arranging bins, simulating all possibilities will take an enormous amount of time and it is computationally infeasible. A discrete-event simulation model incorporating meta-heuristic algorithms has therefore been investigated in this study. Preliminary investigations indicate that the results achieved by GA based simulation model are promising and better than the other meta-heuristic algorithm. Further, a sensitivity analysis has been done on the GA based optimal arrangement which contributes to gaining insights and knowledge about the real system that ultimately leads to improved and enhanced efficiency in sawmill yards. It is expected that the results achieved in the work will support timber industries in making optimal decisions with respect to arrangement of storage bins in a sawmill yard.

Legal LEGO: Model based computer assisted teaching in evidence courses

This paper describes the development of a new approach to the use of ICT for the teaching of courses in the interpretation and evaluation of evidence. It is based on ideas developed for the teaching of science to school children, in particular the importance of models and qualitative reasoning skills. In the first part, we make an analysis of the basis of current research into “evidence scholarship” and the demands such a system would have to meet. In the second part, we introduce the details of such a system that we developed initially to assist police in the interpretation of evidence.

Mapping Attribution Metadata to the Open Provenance Model

A description of a data item's provenance can be provided in dierent forms, and which form is best depends on the intended use of that description. Because of this, dierent communities have made quite distinct underlying assumptions in their models for electronically representing provenance. Approaches deriving from the library and archiving communities emphasise agreed vocabulary by which resources can be described and, in particular, assert their attribution (who created the resource, who modied it, where it was stored etc.) The primary purpose here is to provide intuitive metadata by which users can search for and index resources. In comparison, models for representing the results of scientific workflows have been developed with the assumption that each event or piece of intermediary data in a process' execution can and should be documented, to give a full account of the experiment undertaken. These occurrences are connected together by stating where one derived from, triggered, or otherwise caused another, and so form a causal graph. Mapping between the two approaches would be benecial in integrating systems and exploiting the strengths of each. In this paper, we specify such a mapping between Dublin Core and the Open Provenance Model. We further explain the technical issues to overcome and the rationale behind the approach, to allow the same method to apply in mapping similar schemes.

Comparison Of Demand Pattern Calibration In Water Distribution Networks With Geographic And Non-Geographic Parameterization

Demands are one of the most uncertain parameters in a water distribution network model. A good calibration of the model demands leads to better solutions when using the model for any purpose. A demand pattern calibration methodology that uses a priori information has been developed for calibrating the behaviour of demand groups. Generally, the behaviours of demands in cities are mixed all over the network, contrary to smaller villages where demands are clearly sectorised in residential neighbourhoods, commercial zones and industrial sectors. Demand pattern calibration has a final use for leakage detection and isolation. Detecting a leakage in a pattern that covers nodes spread all over the network makes the isolation unfeasible. Besides, demands in the same zone may be more similar due to the common pressure of the area rather than for the type of contract. For this reason, the demand pattern calibration methodology is applied to a real network with synthetic non-geographic demands for calibrating geographic demand patterns. The results are compared with a previous work where the calibrated patterns were also non-geographic.

A Resource Centric Approach For Advancing Collaboration Through Hydrologic Data And Model Sharing

HydroShare is an online, collaborative system being developed for open sharing of hydrologic data and models. The goal of HydroShare is to enable scientists to easily discover and access hydrologic data and models, retrieve them to their desktop or perform analyses in a distributed computing environment that may include grid, cloud or high performance computing model instances as necessary. Scientists may also publish outcomes (data, results or models) into HydroShare, using the system as a collaboration platform for sharing data, models and analyses. HydroShare is expanding the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated, creating new capability to share models and model components, and taking advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. One of the fundamental concepts in HydroShare is that of a Resource. All content is represented using a Resource Data Model that separates system and science metadata and has elements common to all resources as well as elements specific to the types of resources HydroShare will support. These will include different data types used in the hydrology community and models and workflows that require metadata on execution functionality. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions are being developed using the Drupal content management system. A geospatial visualization and analysis component enables searching, visualizing, and analyzing geographic datasets. The integrated Rule-Oriented Data System (iRODS) is being used to manage federated data content and perform rule-based background actions on data and model resources, including parsing to generate metadata catalog information and the execution of models and workflows. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date, describe key elements of the Resource Data Model and outline the roadmap for future development.

Reservoir Management For Flood And Drought Protection Using Infinite Horizon Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a control method that solves in real time an optimal control problem over a finite horizon. The finiteness of the horizon is both the reason of MPC's success and its main limitation. In operational water resources management, MPC has been in fact successfully employed for controlling systems with a relatively short memory, such as canals, where the horizon length is not an issue. For reservoirs, which have generally a longer memory, MPC applications are presently limited to short term management only. Short term reservoir management can be effectively used to deal with fast process, such as floods, but it is not capable of looking sufficiently ahead to handle long term issues, such as drought. To overcome this limitation, we propose an Infinite Horizon MPC (IH-MPC) solution that is particularly suitable for reservoir management. We propose to structure the input signal by use of orthogonal basis functions, therefore reducing the optimization argument to a finite number of variables, and making the control problem solvable in a reasonable time. We applied this solution for the management of the Manantali Reservoir. Manantali is a yearly reservoir located in Mali, on the Senegal river, affecting water systems of Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania. The long term horizon offered by IH-MPC is necessary to deal with the strongly seasonal climate of the region.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

City Of Toronto’S Approach On Implementing The New Federal Wastewater Effluent Regulations Using A GIS-Based Hydrologic And Hydraulic Model

Canada releases over 150 billion litres of untreated and undertreated wastewater into the water environment every year1. To clean up urban wastewater, new Federal Wastewater Systems Effluent Regulations (WSER) on establishing national baseline effluent quality standards that are achievable through secondary wastewater treatment were enacted on July 18, 2012. With respect to the wastewater from the combined sewer overflows (CSO), the Regulations require the municipalities to report the annual quantity and frequency of effluent discharges. The City of Toronto currently has about 300 CSO locations within an area of approximately 16,550 hectares. The total sewer length of the CSO area is about 3,450 km and the number of sewer manholes is about 51,100. A system-wide monitoring of all CSO locations has never been undertaken due to the cost and practicality. Instead, the City has relied on estimation methods and modelling approaches in the past to allow funds that would otherwise be used for monitoring to be applied to the reduction of the impacts of the CSOs. To fulfill the WSER requirements, the City is now undertaking a study in which GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling is the approach. Results show the usefulness of this for 1) determining the flows contributing to the combined sewer system in the local and trunk sewers for dry weather flow, wet weather flow, and snowmelt conditions; 2) assessing hydraulic grade line and surface water depth in all the local and trunk sewers under heavy rain events; 3) analysis of local and trunk sewer capacities for future growth; and 4) reporting of the annual quantity and frequency of CSOs as per the requirements in the new Regulations. This modelling approach has also allowed funds to be applied toward reducing and ultimately eliminating the adverse impacts of CSOs rather than expending resources on unnecessary and costly monitoring.

A descentralização municipal do Rio de Janeiro contribuindo para a revitalização da vida cultural dos bairros e visando à dinamização do desenvolvimento sócio-econômico

O trabalho analisa a viabilidade de implementação de uma política pública na Cidade do Rio de Janeiro que leve em conta a descentralização municipal na área de Cultura O Brasil entra no Terceiro Milênio realizando a Reforma do Estado com reflexões de ações que estão sendo veiculadas no mundo inteiro. O fortalecimento do poder local apresenta-se como facilitador para a implementação de políticas públicas. A dinamização de uma política na área de Cultura baseada na descentralização municipal, visando à geração de maior emprego e renda nos bairros cariocas contribuirá, significativamente, para a redução de problemas sociais no Rio de Janeiro. No que tange à área Cultural, são propostas iniciativas inovadores que contemplem a realidade brasileira, valorizem talentos, reduzam custos supérfluos, proporcionem o incremento contínuo de público e platéia, disseminem cultura e o acesso popular à mesma. Devem ser modelos que contemplem as demandas das categorias profissionais afetadas às áreas de Arte e Cultura porém, o direcionamento de recursos públicos deve visar ao aumento do nível das comunidades da Cidade do Rio de Janeiro. O desenvolvimento de novos talentos ¿ de cunho popular ou erudito ¿ conjugado com a valorização de produtos culturais do folclore brasileiro e da arte popular devem ser permanentes estratégias da Política Cultural na Cidade do Rio de Janeiro.

A especialização em segurança empresarial para executivos no Rio de Janeiro

o objetivo deste estudo é identificar as necessidades de conhecimentos específicos dos executivos que tem como função a gerência/direção da área de segurança em uma empresa, e apresentar um modelo de curso de especialização que atenda os anseios destes profissionais. Uma vez que tal curso de especialização é ainda incipiente no Brasil, este estudo basear-se-á em programas de especialização em gerenciamento de segurança empresarial, existentes em universidades americanas, inglesas, espanholas e australianas, servido de modelo a serem adaptados à nossa realidade empresarial, à experiência dos executivos de gestão de segurança das empresas brasileiras e na realidade atual de nosso país em matéria de segurança empresarial. Esperamos através de uma pesquisa descritiva e aplicada, onde faremos uma breve exposição sobre a história da segurança, riscos e sua prevenção e áreas de estudo da segurança, apresentar uma estrutura curricular de um programa de pós-graduação em segurança empresarial, a qual deverá contemplar aspectos gerenciais comuns à qualquer tipo de organização, tais como, finanças, recursos humanos, logística etc; e também os aspectos de prevenção de perdas , tais como, segurança pessoal, do trabalho e meio ambiente,fisica, de informações etc. Esta estnltura deverá também atender às necessidades das empresas brasileiras, dentro da conjuntura atual brasileira, nos aspectos social, político, econômico e cultural.

Escolariedade, salários e empregabilidade: implicações no mercado de empregos do Rio de Janeiro

The high degree of flexibility has been pointed as one of the outstanding characteristics of the Brazilian job market. Employability is being a frequent discussion issue among the professionals of the human resources area. The Human Capital Theory and the contemporary discussion concerning Employability argue the relationship of the educational practice and of the production practice in a capitalist economical-social structure as a whole. The education consequences in the individuals' life are reflected in several ways, direct and indirectly. Our objective is to evaluate, with statistics methods, and in that universe of consequences, the explanatory events of the relationships between education-wage and education¿job. The main reason of this work is to evaluate the relationship between education, wage and Employability from a structural model perspective, seeking to compare and to contrast two effective theories: the one from the human capital and other from the Employability. To make this analysis, a database of individuals that are working at the formal work market in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area, had been used. The results showed the education importance on the wage level, as well as, on the Employability factor, whose values and highest taxes correspond to the individuals graduated on the university.