Determinants of economic growth: Will data tell?

Many factors inhibiting and facilitating economic growth havebeen suggested. Can agnostics rely on international incomedata to tell them which matter? We find that agnostic priorslead to conclusions that are sensitive to differences acrossavailable income estimates. For example, the PWT 6.2 revisionof the 1960-96 income estimates in the PWT 6.1 leads tosubstantial changes regarding the role of government,international trade, demography, and geography. We concludethat margins of error in international income estimates appeartoo large for agnostic growth empirics.

Government spending and re-election: Quasi-experimental evidence from Brazilian municipalities

Does additional government spending improve the electoral chances of incumbent politicalparties? This paper provides the first quasi-experimental evidence on this question. Our researchdesign exploits discontinuities in federal funding to local governments in Brazil around severalpopulation cutoffs over the period 1982-1985. We show that extra fiscal transfers resulted in a20% increase in local government spending per capita, and an increase of about 10 percentagepoints in the re-election probability of local incumbent parties. In the context of an agency modelof electoral accountability, as well as existing results indicating that the revenue jumps studiedhere had positive impacts on education outcomes and earnings, these results suggest that expectedelectoral rewards encouraged incumbents to spend additional funds in ways that were valued byvoters.

Professor L. E. Taxell 5.6.1960 Ekenäs

Kirje

The aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

Valtiopäivät 1960 (avajaispuhe)

Puhe

Skolrådet Jussi Saukkonen 19.12.1960 Härstädes

Kirje

El stock de merluza y otros demersales en abril de 1985

Describe las acciones realizadas a bordo del BIC Humboldt, desplegadas en el marco de la exploraciones en el área de Chimbote a Puerto Pizarro. Así mismo, se registra los análisis correspondientes para determinar las condiciones biológicas de las diferentes especies en relación a las condiciones del ambiente marino.

Are these classical business cycles?

The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cyclehypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the timeperiod since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment has typically a long cycle, while the cycle in inventory investment is shorter. To check the robustness of our results, we subject the data for 15 OECD countries to a variety of detrending techniques. While the hypothesis is not confirmed uniformly for all countries, there is a considerably high number for which the data display the predicted pattern. None of the countries shows a pattern which can be interpreted as a clear rejection of the classical hypothesis.

Resultados de los censos gráficos de aves guaneras efectuados en noviembre 1960 y enero 1962

Estudio del conocimiento de la magnitud, fluctuaciones y distribuciòn de las poblaciones de aves, en conexion con las disponibilidades de la anchoveta. Presenta los resultados obtenidos en los censos graficos de noviembre 1990 y enero 1962.

Valtiopäivät 1960 (päättäjäispuhe)

Puhe