A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Copy number variation and chromatin structure

The functional consequences of structural variation in the human genome range from adaptation, to phenotypic variation, to predisposition to diseases. Copy number variation (CNV) was shown to influence the phenotype by modifying, in a somewhat dose-dependent manner, the expression of genes that map within them, as well as that of genes located on their flanks. To assess the possible mechanism(s) behind this neighboring effect, we compared histone modification status of cell lines from patients affected by Williams-Beuren, Williams-Beuren region duplication, Smith-Magenis or DiGeorge Syndrome and control individuals using a high-throughput version of chromatin immuno-precipitation method (ChIP), called ChlP-seq. We monitored monomethylation of lysine K20 on histone H4 and trimethylation of lysine K27 on histone H3, as proxies for open and condensed chromatin, respectively. Consistent with the changes in expression levels observed for multiple genes mapping on the entire length of chromosomes affected by structural variants, we also detected regions with modified histone status between samples, up- and downstream from the critical regions, up to the end of the rearranged chromosome. We also gauged the intrachromosomal interactions of these cell lines utilizing chromosome conformation capture (4C-seq) technique. We observed that a set of genes flanking the Williams-Beuren Syndrome critical region (WBSCR) were often looping together, possibly forming an interacting cluster with each other and the WBSCR. Deletion of the WBSCR disrupts the expression of this group of flanking genes, as well as long-range interactions between them and the rearranged interval. We conclude, that large genomic rearrangements can lead to changes in the state of the chromatin spreading far away from the critical region, thus possibly affecting expression globally and as a result modifying the phenotype of the patients. - Les conséquences fonctionnelles des variations structurelles dans le génome humain sont vastes, allant de l'adaptation, en passant par les variations phénotypiques, aux prédispositions à certaines maladies. Il a été démontré que les variations du nombre de copies (CNV) influencent le phénotype en modifiant, d'une manière plus ou moins dose-dépendante, l'expression des gènes se situant à l'intérieur de ces régions, mais également celle des gènes se trouvant dans les régions flanquantes. Afin d'étudier les mécanismes possibles sous-jacents à cet effet de voisinage, nous avons comparé les états de modification des histones dans des lignées cellulaires dérivées de patients atteints du syndrome de Williams-Beuren, de la duplication de la région Williams-Beuren, du syndrome de Smith-Magenis ou du syndrome de Di- George et d'individus contrôles en utilisant une version haut-débit de la méthode d'immunoprécipitation de la chromatine (ChIP), appelée ChIP-seq. Nous avons suivi la mono-méthylation de la lysine K20 sur l'histone H4 et la tri-méthylation de la lysine K27 sur l'histone H3, marqueurs respectifs de la chromatine ouverte et fermée. En accord avec les changements de niveaux d'expression observés pour de multiples gènes tout le long des chromosomes affectés par les CNVs, nous avons aussi détecté des régions présentant des modifications d'histones entre les échantillons, situées de part et d'autre des régions critiques, jusqu'aux extrémités du chromosome réarrangé. Nous avons aussi évalué les interactions intra-chromosomiques ayant lieu dans ces cellules par l'utilisation de la technique de capture de conformation des chromosomes (4C-seq). Nous avons observé qu'un groupe de gènes flanquants la région critique du syndrome de Williams-Beuren (WBSCR) forment souvent une boucle, constituant un groupe d'interactions privilégiées entre ces gènes et la WBSCR. La délétion de la WBSCR perturbe l'expression de ce groupe de gènes flanquants, mais également les interactions à grande échelle entre eux et la région réarrangée. Nous en concluons que les larges réarrangements génomiques peuvent aboutir à des changements de l'état de la chromatine pouvant s'étendre bien plus loin que la région critique, affectant donc potentiellement l'expression de manière globale et ainsi modifiant le phénotype des patients.

Fuzzy set Theory and Quantum Chemistry

Es discuteixen breument algunes consideracions sobre l'aplicació de la Teoria delsConjunts difusos a la Química quàntica. Es demostra aqui que molts conceptes químics associats a la teoria són adequats per ésser connectats amb l'estructura dels Conjunts difusos. També s'explica com algunes descripcions teoriques dels observables quàntics espotencien tractant-les amb les eines associades als esmentats Conjunts difusos. La funciódensitat es pren com a exemple de l'ús de distribucions de possibilitat al mateix temps queles distribucions de probabilitat quàntiques

Hilbert space on probability density functions with Aitchison geometry

Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities

When a data set can be considered compositional?

Traditionally, compositional data has been identified with closed data, and the simplex has been considered as the natural sample space of this kind of data. In our opinion, the emphasis on the constrained nature ofcompositional data has contributed to mask its real nature. More crucial than the constraining property of compositional data is the scale-invariant property of this kind of data. Indeed, when we are considering only few parts of a full composition we are not working with constrained data but our data are still compositional. We believe that it is necessary to give a more precisedefinition of composition. This is the aim of this oral contribution

An iterative Multiscale Finite-Volume algorithm converging to the exact solution

The multiscale finite volume (MsFV) method has been developed to efficiently solve large heterogeneous problems (elliptic or parabolic); it is usually employed for pressure equations and delivers conservative flux fields to be used in transport problems. The method essentially relies on the hypothesis that the (fine-scale) problem can be reasonably described by a set of local solutions coupled by a conservative global (coarse-scale) problem. In most cases, the boundary conditions assigned for the local problems are satisfactory and the approximate conservative fluxes provided by the method are accurate. In numerically challenging cases, however, a more accurate localization is required to obtain a good approximation of the fine-scale solution. In this paper we develop a procedure to iteratively improve the boundary conditions of the local problems. The algorithm relies on the data structure of the MsFV method and employs a Krylov-subspace projection method to obtain an unconditionally stable scheme and accelerate convergence. Two variants are considered: in the first, only the MsFV operator is used; in the second, the MsFV operator is combined in a two-step method with an operator derived from the problem solved to construct the conservative flux field. The resulting iterative MsFV algorithms allow arbitrary reduction of the solution error without compromising the construction of a conservative flux field, which is guaranteed at any iteration. Since it converges to the exact solution, the method can be regarded as a linear solver. In this context, the schemes proposed here can be viewed as preconditioned versions of the Generalized Minimal Residual method (GMRES), with a very peculiar characteristic that the residual on the coarse grid is zero at any iteration (thus conservative fluxes can be obtained).

Testing the validity of a set of diagnostic criteria for sensory neuronopathies: a francophone collaborative study.

There are no validated criteria for the diagnosis of sensory neuronopathy (SNN) yet. In a preliminary monocenter study a set of criteria relying on clinical and electrophysiological data showed good sensitivity and specificity for a diagnosis of probable SNN. The aim of this study was to test these criteria on a French multicenter study. 210 patients with sensory neuropathies from 15 francophone reference centers for neuromuscular diseases were included in the study with an expert diagnosis of non-SNN, SNN or suspected SNN according to the investigations performed in these centers. Diagnosis was obtained independently from the set of criteria to be tested. The expert diagnosis was taken as the reference against which the proposed SNN criteria were tested. The set relied on clinical and electrophysiological data easily obtainable with routine investigations. 9/61 (16.4 %) of non-SNN patients, 23/36 (63.9 %) of suspected SNN, and 102/113 (90.3 %) of SNN patients according to the expert diagnosis were classified as SNN by the criteria. The SNN criteria tested against the expert diagnosis in the SNN and non-SNN groups had 90.3 % (102/113) sensitivity, 85.2 % (52/61) specificity, 91.9 % (102/111) positive predictive value, and 82.5 % (52/63) negative predictive value. Discordance between the expert diagnosis and the SNN criteria occurred in 20 cases. After analysis of these cases, 11 could be reallocated to a correct diagnosis in accordance with the SNN criteria. The proposed criteria may be useful for the diagnosis of probable SNN in patients with sensory neuropathy. They can be reached with simple clinical and paraclinical investigations.

Exposure to Trihalomethanes through Different Water Uses and Birth Weight, Small for Gestational Age, and Preterm Delivery in Spain

BACKGROUND Evidence associating exposure to water disinfection by-products with reduced birth weight and altered duration of gestation remains inconclusive. OBJECTIVE We assessed exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) during pregnancy through different water uses and evaluated the association with birth weight, small for gestational age (SGA), low birth weight (LBW), and preterm delivery. METHODS Mother-child cohorts set up in five Spanish areas during the years 2000-2008 contributed data on water ingestion, showering, bathing, and swimming in pools. We ascertained residential THM levels during pregnancy periods through ad hoc sampling campaigns (828 measurements) and regulatory data (264 measurements), which were modeled and combined with personal water use and uptake factors to estimate personal uptake. We defined outcomes following standard definitions and included 2,158 newborns in the analysis. RESULTS Median residential THM ranged from 5.9 μg/L (Valencia) to 114.7 μg/L (Sabadell), and speciation differed across areas. We estimated that 89% of residential chloroform and 96% of brominated THM uptakes were from showering/bathing. The estimated change of birth weight for a 10% increase in residential uptake was -0.45 g (95% confidence interval: -1.36, 0.45 g) for chloroform and 0.16 g (-1.38, 1.70 g) for brominated THMs. Overall, THMs were not associated with SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery. CONCLUSIONS Despite the high THM levels in some areas and the extensive exposure assessment, results suggest that residential THM exposure during pregnancy driven by inhalation and dermal contact routes is not associated with birth weight, SGA, LBW, or preterm delivery in Spain.

A Homogeneous Set-Theoretical Frame for Clustering Fuzzy Relational Data

Our purpose is to provide a set-theoretical frame to clustering fuzzy relational data basically based on cardinality of the fuzzy subsets that represent objects and their complementaries, without applying any crisp property. From this perspective we define a family of fuzzy similarity indexes which includes a set of fuzzy indexes introduced by Tolias et al, and we analyze under which conditions it is defined a fuzzy proximity relation. Following an original idea due to S. Miyamoto we evaluate the similarity between objects and features by means the same mathematical procedure. Joining these concepts and methods we establish an algorithm to clustering fuzzy relational data. Finally, we present an example to make clear all the process

Alternative PCR protocol using a single primer set for assessing DNA quality in several tissues from a large variety of mammalian species living in areas endemic for leishmaniasis

The aim of this work was to establish a modified pre-diagnostic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol using a single primer set that enables successful amplification of a highly conserved mammalian sequence in order to determine overall sample DNA quality for multiple mammalian species that inhabit areas endemic for leishmaniasis. The gene encoding interphotoreceptor retinoid-binding protein (IRBP), but not other conserved genes, was efficiently amplified in DNA samples from tail skin, ear skin, bone marrow, liver and spleen from all of the species tested. In tissue samples that were PCR-positive for Leishmania, we found that DNA from 100%, 55% and 22% of the samples tested resulted in a positive PCR reaction for the IRBP, beta-actin and beta-globin genes, respectively. Nucleotide sequencing of an IRBP amplicon resolved any questions regarding the taxonomical classification of a rodent, which was previously based simply on the morphological features of the animal. Therefore, PCR amplification and analysis of the IRBP amplicon are suitable for pre-diagnostically assessing DNA quality and identifying mammalian species living in areas endemic to leishmaniasis and other diseases.

Constraints on the upper Permian to upper Triassic marine carbon isotope curve : case studies from the Tethys

Secular variations of the seawater carbon isotopic composition provide evidence for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic changes and may serve for chemiostratigraphic correlations. The present study aimed to improve the current knowledge on the Upper Permian and Triassic segment of the Phanerozoic marine carbon isotope curve, whose Triassic part was poorly constrained by previous studies. Profiles of inorganic carbon isotopes are provided for sections from Himalaya (Salt Range, Kashmir, Spiti and Nepal), Oman and North Dobrogea (Romania) on the basis of whole-rock carbonate analysis. The data acquired, together with a literature compilation confirmed that most of the Upper Permian is characterized by high δ13C values (averaging +40/00) but failed to detect a positive excursion as suggested by recent compilations. In the light of these observations, the large drop in δ13C values associated with the end-Permian mass extinction appears to be driven by a sudden transfer of previously stocked 13C depleted carbon, rather than by the overturn of a Late Permian stratified ocean. The Triassic data-set outlines significant secular variations. The best documented is a carbon isotope positive excursion just across the Lower-Middle Triassic boundary, globally developed since it was detected in various paleogeographic settings. It is interpreted to reflect variations in surface ocean chemistry, possibly related to increased primary productivity, at times when the biotic recovery after the end-Permian mass-extinction began to accelerate significantly and when a sharp rise in seawater δ34S values occurred globally. Strontium isotope data obtained from well preserved biogenic phosphates allow a refinement of the Middle Triassic segment of the seawater strontium isotope curve and show a major inflexion point of the seawater strontium isotope curve also near the Lower Triassic - Middle Triassic boundary. These facts suggest that the transition from the Early to the Middle Triassic was a time of revolutionary global change which represented an important step in the evolution of Mesozoic marine environments. A tentative carbon isotope curve for the Upper Permian to Upper Triassic time interval is proposed. Its major features are: ? high but constant δ13C values during the Late Permian ? a sharp drop in δ13C values in the latest Permian ? subsequent recovery of δ13C values ? a short-lived positive excursion across the Early-Middle Triassic boundary ? a gradual rise in δ13C values starting in the Late Ladinian or in the Early Carnian It is foreseen that these fluctuations of the carbon isotope curve may serve as chronostratigraphic markers and further assist in the correlation of Permian and Triassic carbonate deposits.

The TT genotype of the STAT4 rs7574865 polymorphism is associated with high disease activity and disability in patients with early arthritis

BACKGROUND The number of copies of the HLA-DRB1 shared epitope, and the minor alleles of the STAT4 rs7574865 and the PTPN22 rs2476601 polymorphisms have all been linked with an increased risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis. In the present study, we investigated the effects of these genetic variants on disease activity and disability in patients with early arthritis. METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS We studied 640 patients with early arthritis (76% women; median age, 52 years), recording disease-related variables every 6 months during a 2-year follow-up. HLA-DRB1 alleles were determined by PCR-SSO, while rs7574865 and rs2476601 were genotyped with the Taqman 5' allelic discrimination assay. Multivariate analysis was performed using generalized estimating equations for repeated measures. After adjusting for confounding variables such as gender, age and ACPA, the TT genotype of rs7574865 in STAT4 was associated with increased disease activity (DAS28) as compared with the GG genotype (β coefficient [95% confidence interval] = 0.42 [0.01-0.83], p = 0.044). Conversely, the presence of the T allele of rs2476601 in PTPN22 was associated with diminished disease activity during follow-up in a dose-dependent manner (CT genotype = -0.27 [-0.56- -0.01], p = 0.042; TT genotype = -0.68 [-1.64- -0.27], p = 0.162). After adjustment for gender, age and disease activity, homozygosity for the T allele of rs7574865 in STAT4 was associated with greater disability as compared with the GG genotype. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest that patients with early arthritis who are homozygous for the T allele of rs7574865 in STAT4 may develop a more severe form of the disease with increased disease activity and disability.

Early Cretaceous (late Berriasian to early Aptian) palaeoceanographic change along the northwestern Tethyan margin (Vocontian Trough, southeastern France): δ13C, δ18O and Sr-isotope belemnite and whole-rock records

Stable carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope records were obtained from uppermost Hauterivian to lowermost Aptian belemnite rostra, which were collected in well-dated sections from the Vocontian Trough (southeastern France). This data set complements previously published belemnite-isotope records from the uppermost Berriasian-Hauterivian interval from the same basin. The belemnite carbon and oxygen isotope record is compared to the carbonate bulk-rock isotope record from the same sections, and from additional Italian sections. With regards to their long-term trends, both belemnite and whole-rock delta O-18 records are well correlated, except for the uppermost Hauterivian-lower Barremian interval, within which they deviate. This discrepancy is interpreted to be linked to the latest Hauterivian Faraoni oceanic anoxic event and its early Barremian aftermath. The Faraoni level is characterized by enhanced sea-water stratification, probably induced by the onset of a warmer and more humid climate along the northern Tethyan margin. The early Barremian was characterized by stronger vertical sea-water mixing reflected by a decrease in density contrast between sea-surface and deeper waters. The belemnite oxygen isotope record shows a more stable evolution with smaller fluctuations than its bulk-rock counterpart, which indicates that deeper water masses were not as much subjected to density fluctuations as sea-surface water. The comparison of belemnite and bulk-rock carbon isotope records allows observing the impact of regional influence exerted by platform carbonate ooze shedding on the carbon cycle. Discrepancies in the two records are observed during time of photozoan carbonate platform growth. The strontium isotopic record shows a gradual increase from the uppermost Berriasian to the uppermost lower Barremian followed by a rapid decrease until the uppermost Barremian and a renewed small increase within the lowermost Aptian. The major inflection point in the uppermost lower Barremian appears to predate the onset in the formation of the Ontong-Java volcanic plateau.

A new training set-up for trans-apical aortic valve replacement.

Trans-apical aortic valve replacement (AVR) is a new and rapidly growing therapy. However, there are only few training opportunities. The objective of our work is to build an appropriate artificial model of the heart that can replace the use of animals for surgical training in trans-apical AVR procedures. To reduce the necessity for fluoroscopy, we pursued the goal of building a translucent model of the heart that has nature-like dimensions. A simplified 3D model of a human heart with its aortic root was created in silico using the SolidWorks Computer-Aided Design (CAD) program. This heart model was printed using a rapid prototyping system developed by the Fab@Home project and dip-coated two times with dispersion silicone. The translucency of the heart model allows the perception of the deployment area of the valved-stent without using heavy imaging support. The final model was then placed in a human manikin for surgical training on trans-apical AVR procedure. Trans-apical AVR with all the necessary steps (puncture, wiring, catheterization, ballooning etc.) can be realized repeatedly in this setting.