Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Learning to drive: learners' self-reported cognitive failure level predicts driving instructor's observation rating of driving performance

OBJECTIVES Evidence increases that cognitive failure may be used to screen for drivers at risk. Until now, most studies have relied on driving learners. This exploratory pilot study examines self-report of cognitive failure in driving beginners and error during real driving as observed by driving instructors. METHODS Forty-two driving learners of 14 driving instructors filled out a work-related cognitive failure questionnaire. Driving instructors observed driving errors during the next driving lesson. In multiple linear regression analysis, driving errors were regressed on cognitive failure with the number of driving lessons as an estimator of driving experience controlled. RESULTS Higher cognitive failure predicted more driving errors (p < .01) when age, gender and driving experience were controlled in analysis. CONCLUSIONS Cognitive failure was significantly associated with observed driving errors. Systematic research on cognitive failure in driving beginners is recommended.

THE INTERACTION BETWEEN INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL INFORMATION ON RELATIONAL DATA SEARCH

People often use tools to search for information. In order to improve the quality of an information search, it is important to understand how internal information, which is stored in user’s mind, and external information, represented by the interface of tools interact with each other. How information is distributed between internal and external representations significantly affects information search performance. However, few studies have examined the relationship between types of interface and types of search task in the context of information search. For a distributed information search task, how data are distributed, represented, and formatted significantly affects the user search performance in terms of response time and accuracy. Guided by UFuRT (User, Function, Representation, Task), a human-centered process, I propose a search model, task taxonomy. The model defines its relationship with other existing information models. The taxonomy clarifies the legitimate operations for each type of search task of relation data. Based on the model and taxonomy, I have also developed prototypes of interface for the search tasks of relational data. These prototypes were used for experiments. The experiments described in this study are of a within-subject design with a sample of 24 participants recruited from the graduate schools located in the Texas Medical Center. Participants performed one-dimensional nominal search tasks over nominal, ordinal, and ratio displays, and searched one-dimensional nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio tasks over table and graph displays. Participants also performed the same task and display combination for twodimensional searches. Distributed cognition theory has been adopted as a theoretical framework for analyzing and predicting the search performance of relational data. It has been shown that the representation dimensions and data scales, as well as the search task types, are main factors in determining search efficiency and effectiveness. In particular, the more external representations used, the better search task performance, and the results suggest the ideal search performance occurs when the question type and corresponding data scale representation match. The implications of the study lie in contributing to the effective design of search interface for relational data, especially laboratory results, which are often used in healthcare activities.

Is output performance all about the resources? A fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland

This article refines Lipsky’s (1980) assertion that lacking resources negatively affect output performance. It uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to analyse the nuanced interplay of contextual and individual determinants of the output performance of veterinary inspectors as street-level bureaucrats in Switzerland. Moving ‘beyond Lipsky’, the study builds on recent theoretical contributions and a systematic comparison across organizational contexts. Against a widespread assumption, output performance is not all about the resources. The impact of perceived available resources hinges on caseloads, which prove to be more decisive. These contextual factors interact with individual attitudes emerging from diverse public accountabilities. The results contextualize the often-emphasized importance of worker-client interaction. In a setting where clients cannot escape the interaction, street-level bureaucrats are not primarily held accountable by them. Studies of output performance should thus sensibly consider gaps between what is being demanded of and offered to street-level bureaucrats, and the latter’s multiple embeddedness.

Decision making in beach volleyball defense: Crucial factors derived from interviews with top-level experts

Objectives: In fast ball sports like beach volleyball, decision-making skills are a determining factor for excellent performance. The current investigation aimed to identify factors that influence the decisionmaking process in top-level beach volleyball defense in order to find relevant aspects for further research. For this reason, focused interviews with top players in international beach volleyball were conducted and analyzed with respect to decision-making characteristics. Design: Nineteen world-tour beach volleyball defense players, including seven Olympic or world champions, were interviewed, focusing on decision-making factors, gaze behavior, and interactions between the two. Methods: Verbal data were analyzed by inductive content analysis according to Mayring (2008). This approach allows categories to emerge from the interview material itself instead of forcing data into preset classifications and theoretical concepts. Results: The data analysis showed that, for top-level beach volleyball defense, decision making depends on opponent specifics, external context, situational context, opponent's movements, and intuition. Information on gaze patterns and visual cues revealed general tendencies indicating optimal gaze strategies that support excellent decision making. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted interactions between gaze behavior, visual information, and domain-specific knowledge. Conclusions: The present findings provide information on visual perception, domain-specific knowledge, and interactions between the two that are relevant for decision making in top-level beach volleyball defense. The results can be used to inform sports practice and to further untangle relevant mechanisms underlying decision making in complex game situations.

Individual group efficacy beliefs and performance motivation: A mediational approach

Introduction: According to the theoretical model of Cranach, Ochsenbein, and Valach (1986) understanding group actions needs consideration of aspects at both the group level and the level of individual members. For example individual action units constituting group actions are motivated at the individual level while potentially being affected by characteristics of the group. Theoretically, group efficacy beliefs could be a part of this motivational process as they are an individual’s cognitive contents about group-level abilities to perform well in a specific task. Positive relations between group level efficacy-beliefs and group performance have been reported and Bandura and Locke (2003) argue that this relationship is being mediated by motivational processes and goal setting. The aims of this study were a) to examine the effects of group characteristics on individual performance motivation and b) to test if those are mediated by individual group efficacy beliefs. Methods: Forty-seven students (M=22.83 years, SD=2.83, 34% women) of the university of Berne participated in this scenario based experiment. Data were collected on two collection points. Subjects were provided information about fictive team members with whom they had to perform a group triathlon. Three values (low, medium, high) of the other team members’ abilities to perform in their parts of the triathlon (swimming and biking respectively) were combined in a 3x3 full factorial design (Anderson, 1982) yielding nine groups. Subjects were asked how confident they were that the teams would perform well in the task (individual group efficacy beliefs), and to provide information about their motivation to perform at their best in the respective group contexts (performance motivation). Multilevel modeling (Mplus) was used to estimate the effects of the factors swim and bike, and the context-varying covariate individual group efficacy beliefs on performance motivation. Further analyses were undertaken to test if the effects of group contexts on performance motivation are mediated by individual group efficacy beliefs. Results: Significant effects were reported for both the group characteristics (βswim = 7.86; βbike = 8.57; both p < .001) and the individual group efficacy beliefs (βigeb; .40, p < .001) on performance motivation. The subsequent mediation model indicated that the effects of group characteristics on performance motivation were partly mediated by the individual group efficacy beliefs of the subjects with significant mediation effects for both factors swim and bike. Discussion/Conclusion: The results of the study provide further support for the motivational character of efficacy beliefs and point out a mechanism by which team characteristics influence performance relevant factors at the level of individual team members. The study indicates that high team abilities lead to augmented performance motivation, adding a psychological advantage to teams already high on task relevant abilities. Future investigations will be aiming at possibilities to keep individual performance motivation high in groups with low task relevant abilities. One possibility could be the formulation of individual task goals. References: Anderson, N. H. (1982). Methods of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press. Bandura, A. & Locke, E. A. (2003). Negative self-efficacy and goal effects revisited. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88, 87-99. Cranach, M. von, Ochsenbein, G. & Valach, L. (1986). The group as a self-active system: Outline of a theory of group action. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 193-229.

Neural patterns underlying social comparisons of personal performance

Humans often evaluate their abilities by comparing their personal performance with that of others. For this process, it is critical whether the comparison turns out in one's favor or against it. Here, we investigate how social comparisons of performance are encoded and integrated on the neural level. We collected functional magnetic resonance images while subjects answered questions in a knowledge quiz that was related to their profession. After each question, subjects received a feedback about their personal performance, followed by a feedback about the performance of a reference group who had been quizzed beforehand. Based on the subjects' personal performance, we divided trials in downward and upward comparisons. We found that upward comparisons correlated with activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the anterior insula. Downward comparisons were associated with increased activation in the ventral striatum (VS), the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). The extent to which subjects outperformed the reference group modulated the activity in the VS and in the dorsal ACC. We suggest that the co-activation of the VS and the dorsal ACC contributes to the integration of downward comparisons into the evaluation of personal performance.

Elucidating the internal structure of psychophysical timing performance in the sub-second and second range by utilizing confirmatory factor analysis

The most influential theoretical account in time psychophysics assumes the existence of a unitary internal clock based on neural counting. The distinct timing hypothesis, on the other hand, suggests an automatic timing mechanism for processing of durations in the sub-second range and a cognitively controlled timing mechanism for processing of durations in the range of seconds. Although several psychophysical approaches can be applied for identifying the internal structure of interval timing in the second and sub-second range, the existing data provide a puzzling picture of rather inconsistent results. In the present chapter, we introduce confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to further elucidate the internal structure of interval timing performance in the sub-second and second range. More specifically, we investigated whether CFA would rather support the notion of a unitary timing mechanism or of distinct timing mechanisms underlying interval timing in the sub-second and second range, respectively. The assumption of two distinct timing mechanisms which are completely independent of each other was not supported by our data. The model assuming a unitary timing mechanism underlying interval timing in both the sub-second and second range fitted the empirical data much better. Eventually, we also tested a third model assuming two distinct, but functionally related mechanisms. The correlation between the two latent variables representing the hypothesized timing mechanisms was rather high and comparison of fit indices indicated that the assumption of two associated timing mechanisms described the observed data better than only one latent variable. Models are discussed in the light of the existing psychophysical and neurophysiological data.

"Of course I will...": The combined effect of certainty and level of expectancies on persistence and performance

The importance of performance expectancies for the prediction of regulation of behavior and actual performance has long been established. Building on theories from the field of social cognition, we suggest that the level of performance expectancies, as well as the certainty of the expectancy, have a joint influence on an individual’s beliefs and behavior. In two studies (one cross sectional using a sample of secondary school students and one longitudinal using a sample of university students) we found that expectancies more strongly predicted persistence, and subsequent performance, the more certain the expectancy was. This pattern was found even if prior performance was controlled, as in Study 2. The data give an indication that it may be useful to include certainty as an additional variable in expectancy models.

Firm-level strategic orientation and performance: a synthesis and extension of the knowledge base on entrepreneurial, market and learning orientation

Should a firm stay focused or should it rather adopt a broader strategic perspective? This dissertation summarizes and extends the existing knowledge base on entrepreneurial, market, and learning orientation. Building on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical evidence from prior studies, as well as on survey and archival data collected in two economic contexts, performance effects from individual orientations, their dimensions and combinations are explored. Results reveal that the three strategic orientations are highly interrelated and that their relationship to firm performance is more complex than previously assumed.

Characterization and performance of carbonaceous materials obtained from exhausted sludges for the anaerobic biodecolorization of the azo dye Acid Orange II.

This work presents the preliminary study of new carbonaceous materials (CMs) obtained from exhausted sludge, their use in the heterogeneous anaerobic process of biodecolorization of azo dyes and the comparison of their performance with one commercial active carbon. The preparation of carbonaceous materials was conducted through chemical activation and carbonization. Chemical activation was carried out through impregnation of sludge-exhausted materials with ZnCl2 and the activation by means of carbonization at different temperatures (400, 600 and 800°C). Their physicochemical and surface characteristics were also investigated. Sludge based carbonaceous (SBC) materials SBC400, SBC600 and SBC800 present values of 13.0, 111.3 and 202.0m(2)/g of surface area. Biodecolorization levels of 76% were achieved for SBC600 and 86% for SBC800 at space time (τ) of 1.0min, similar to that obtained with commercial activated carbons in the continuous anaerobic up-flow packed bed reactor (UPBR). The experimental data fit well to the first order kinetic model and equilibrium data are well represented by the Langmuir isotherm model. Carbonaceous materials show high level of biodecolorization even at very short space times. Results indicate that carbonaceous materials prepared from sludge-exhausted materials have outstanding textural properties and significant degradation capacity for treating textile effluents.

The Neuropsychological Assessment of Cognitive Deficits Considering Measures of Performance Variability

Neuropsychologists often face interpretational difficulties when assessing cognitive deficits, particularly in cases of unclear cerebral etiology. How can we be sure whether a single test score below the population average is indicative of a pathological brain condition or normal? In the past few years, the topic of intra-individual performance variability has gained great interest. On the basis of a large normative sample, two measures of performance variability and their importance for neuropsychological interpretation will be presented in this paper: the number of low scores and the level of dispersion.We conclude that low scores are common in healthy individuals. On the other hand, the level of dispersion is relatively small. Here, base rate information about abnormally low scores and abnormally high dispersion across cognitive abilities are providedto improve the awareness of normal variability and to serve clinicians as additional interpretive measures in the diagnostic process.

The Emergence of Formal Control Specificity in Information Systems Outsourcing: A Process-View

Information systems (IS) outsourcing projects often fail to achieve initial goals. To avoid project failure, managers need to design formal controls that meet the specific contextual demands of the project. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of IS outsourcing projects makes it difficult to design such specific formal controls at the outset of a project. It is hence crucial to translate high-level project goals into specific formal controls during the course of a project. This study seeks to understand the underlying patterns of such translation processes. Based on a comparative case study of four outsourced software development projects, we inductively develop a process model that consists of three unique patterns. The process model shows that the performance implications of emergent controls with higher specificity depend on differences in the translation process. Specific formal controls have positive implications for goal achievement if only the stakeholder context is adapted, while they are negative for goal achievement if in the translation process tasks are unintendedly adapted. In the latter case projects incrementally drift away from their initial direction. Our findings help to better understand control dynamics in IS outsourcing projects. We contribute to a process theoretic understanding of IS outsourcing governance and we derive implications for control theory and the IS project escalation literature.