Uncertainty assessment approach for composite structures based on global sensitivity indices

The problem of uncertainty propagation in composite laminate structures is studied. An approach based on the optimal design of composite structures to achieve a target reliability level is proposed. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a design domain centred at mean values of random variables, aimed at studying the space variability. The most critical Tsai number, the structural reliability index and the sensitivities are obtained for each UDM design point, using the maximum load obtained from optimal design search. Using the UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on supervised evolutionary learning. Finally, using the developed ANN a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is implemented and the variability of the structural response based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is studied. The GSA is based on the first order Sobol indices and relative sensitivities. An appropriate GSA algorithm aiming to obtain Sobol indices is proposed. The most important sources of uncertainty are identified.

Aedes aegypti entomological indices in an endemic area for dengue in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the most productive types of properties and containers for Aedes aegypti and the spatial distribution of entomological indices.METHODS: Between December 2006 and February 2007, the vector's immature forms were collected to obtain entomological indices in 9,875 properties in the Jaguare neighborhood of Sao Jose do Rio Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil. In March and April 2007, a questionnaire about the conditions and characteristics of properties was administered. Logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with the presence of pupae at the properties. Indices calculated per block were combined with a geo-referenced map, and thematic maps of these indices were obtained using statistical interpolation.RESULTS: The properties inspected had the following Ae. aegypti indices: Breteau Index = 18.9, 3.7 larvae and 0.42 pupae per property, 5.2 containers harboring Ae. aegypti per hectare, 100.0 larvae and 11.6 pupae per hectare, and 1.3 larvae and 0.15 pupae per inhabitant. The presence of yards, gardens and animals was associated with the presence of pupae.CONCLUSIONS: Specific types of properties and containers that simultaneously had low frequencies among those positive for the vector and high participation in the productivity of larvae and pupae were not identified. The use of indices including larval and pupal counts does not provide further information beyond that obtained from the traditional Stegomyia indices in locations with characteristics similar to those of São José do Rio Preto. The indices calculated per area were found to be more accurate for the spatial assessment of infestation. The Ae. aegypti infestation levels exhibited extensive spatial variation, indicating that the assessment of infestation in micro areas is needed.

Analysis of stock market indices with multidimensional scaling and wavelets

Stock market indices SMIs are important measures of financial and economical performance. Considerable research efforts during the last years demonstrated that these signals have a chaotic nature and require sophisticated mathematical tools for analyzing their characteristics. Classical methods, such as the Fourier transform, reveal considerable limitations in discriminating different periods of time. This paper studies the dynamics of SMI by combining the wavelet transform and the multidimensional scaling MDS . Six continuous wavelets are tested for analyzing the information content of the stock signals. In a first phase, the real Shannon wavelet is adopted for performing the evaluation of the SMI dynamics, while their comparison is visualized by means of the MDS. In a second phase, the other wavelets are also tested, and the corresponding MDS plots are analyzed.

Complex dynamics of financial indices

This paper presents a novel method for the analysis of nonlinear financial and economic systems. The modeling approach integrates the classical concepts of state space representation and time series regression. The analytical and numerical scheme leads to a parameter space representation that constitutes a valid alternative to represent the dynamical behavior. The results reveal that business cycles can be clearly revealed, while the noise effects common in financial indices can elegantly be filtered out of the results.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

Optimising and adapting the QoS of a dynamic set of inter-dependent tasks

Due to the growing complexity and adaptability requirements of real-time systems, which often exhibit unrestricted Quality of Service (QoS) inter-dependencies among supported services and user-imposed quality constraints, it is increasingly difficult to optimise the level of service of a dynamic task set within an useful and bounded time. This is even more difficult when intending to benefit from the full potential of an open distributed cooperating environment, where service characteristics are not known beforehand and tasks may be inter-dependent. This paper focuses on optimising a dynamic local set of inter-dependent tasks that can be executed at varying levels of QoS to achieve an efficient resource usage that is constantly adapted to the specific constraints of devices and users, nature of executing tasks and dynamically changing system conditions. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed anytime algorithms are able to quickly find a good initial solution and effectively optimise the rate at which the quality of the current solution improves as the algorithms are given more time to run, with a minimum overhead when compared against their traditional versions.

Dynamic QoS adaptation of inter- dependent task sets in cooperative embedded systems

Due to the growing complexity and dynamism of many embedded application domains (including consumer electronics, robotics, automotive and telecommunications), it is increasingly difficult to react to load variations and adapt the system's performance in a controlled fashion within an useful and bounded time. This is particularly noticeable when intending to benefit from the full potential of an open distributed cooperating environment, where service characteristics are not known beforehand and tasks may exhibit unrestricted QoS inter-dependencies. This paper proposes a novel anytime adaptive QoS control policy in which the online search for the best set of QoS levels is combined with each user's personal preferences on their services' adaptation behaviour. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed anytime algorithms are able to quickly find a good initial solution and effectively optimise the rate at which the quality of the current solution improves as the algorithms are given more time to run, with a minimum overhead when compared against their traditional versions.

Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling

We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

Viability of the use of thin-film A-SiC:H photodiodes for protein identification

In this paper, we present a multilayer device based on a-Si:H/a-SiC:H that operates as photodetector and optical filter. The use of such device in protein detection applications is relevant in Fluorescence Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) measurements. This method demands the detection of fluorescent signals located at specific wavelengths bands in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The device operates in the visible range with a selective sensitivity dependent on electrical and optical bias. Several nanosensors were tested with a commercial spectrophotometer to assess the performance of FRET signals using glucose solutions of different concentrations. The proposed device was used to demonstrate the possibility of FRET signals detection, using visible signals of similar wavelength and intensity. The device sensitivity was tuned to enhance the wavelength band of interest using steady state optical bias at 400 nm. Results show the ability of the device to detect signals in this range. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Inhibition of Aspergillus fumigatus and its biofilm by Pseudomonas aeruginosa is dependent on the source, phenotype and growth conditions of the bacterium

Aspergillus fumigatus (Af) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) are leading fungal and bacterial pathogens, respectively, in many clinical situations. Relevant to this, their interface and co-existence has been studied. In some experiments in vitro, Pa products have been defined that are inhibitory to Af. In some clinical situations, both can be biofilm producers, and biofilm could alter their physiology and affect their interaction. That may be most relevant to airways in cystic fibrosis (CF), where both are often prominent residents. We have studied clinical Pa isolates from several sources for their effects on Af, including testing involving their biofilms. We show that the described inhibition of Af is related to the source and phenotype of the Pa isolate. Pa cells inhibited the growth and formation of Af biofilm from conidia, with CF isolates more inhibitory than non-CF isolates, and non-mucoid CF isolates most inhibitory. Inhibition did not require live Pa contact, as culture filtrates were also inhibitory, and again non-mucoid>mucoid CF>non-CF. Preformed Af biofilm was more resistant to Pa, and inhibition that occurred could be reproduced with filtrates. Inhibition of Af biofilm appears also dependent on bacterial growth conditions; filtrates from Pa grown as biofilm were more inhibitory than from Pa grown planktonically. The differences in Pa shown from these different sources are consistent with the extensive evolutionary Pa changes that have been described in association with chronic residence in CF airways, and may reflect adaptive changes to life in a polymicrobial environment.

The effect of metal transfer modes and shielding gas composition on the emission of ultraafine particles in MAG steel welding

The present study aims to characterize ultrafine particles emitted during gas metal arc welding of mild steel and stainless steel, using different shielding gas mixtures, and to evaluate the effect of metal transfer modes, controlled by both processing parameters and shielding gas composition, on the quantity and morphology of the ultrafine particles. It was found that the amount of emitted ultrafine particles (measured by particle number and alveolar deposited surface area) are clearly dependent from the main welding parameters, namely the current intensity and the heat input of the Welding process. The emission of airborne ultrafine particles increases with the current intensity as fume formation rate does. When comparing the shielding gas mixtures, higher emissions were observed for more oxidizing mixtures, that is, with higher CO2 content, which means that these mixtures originate higher concentrations of ultrafine particles (as measured by number of particles. by cubic centimeter of air) and higher values of alveolar deposited surface area of particles, thus resulting in a more hazardous condition regarding welders exposure.

Emission of airborne ultrafine particles during welding of steel plates

The present study is focused on the characterization of ultrafine particles emitted in welding of steel using mixtures of Ar+CO2, and intends to analyze which are the main process parameters which may have influence on the emission itself. It was found that the amount of emitted ultrafine particles (measured by particle number and alveolar deposited surface area) are clearly dependent from the distance to the welding front and also from the main welding parameters, namely the current intensity and heat input in the welding process. The emission of airborne ultrafine particles seem to increase with the current intensity as fume formation rate does. When comparing the tested gas mixtures, higher emissions are observed for more oxidant mixtures, that is, mixtures with higher CO2 content, which result in higher arc stability. The later mixtures originate higher concentrations of ultrafine particles (as measured by number of particles by cm3 of air) and higher values of alveolar deposited surface area of particles, thus resulting in a more hazardous condition regarding worker's exposure. © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Materiais (SPM). Published by Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Paired indices for clustering evaluation correction for agreement by chance

In the present paper we focus on the performance of clustering algorithms using indices of paired agreement to measure the accordance between clusters and an a priori known structure. We specifically propose a method to correct all indices considered for agreement by chance - the adjusted indices are meant to provide a realistic measure of clustering performance. The proposed method enables the correction of virtually any index - overcoming previous limitations known in the literature - and provides very precise results. We use simulated datasets under diverse scenarios and discuss the pertinence of our proposal which is particularly relevant when poorly separated clusters are considered. Finally we compare the performance of EM and KMeans algorithms, within each of the simulated scenarios and generally conclude that EM generally yields best results.

Densities and refractive indices for the ternary mixture methanol/propan-1-Ol/acetonitrile

Refractive indices, n(D), and densities, rho, at 298.15 K were measured for the ternary mixture methanol (MeOH)/propan-1-ol (1-PrOH)/acetonitrile (MeCN) for a total of 22 mole fractions, along with 18 mole fractions of each of the corresponding binary mixtures, methanol/propan-1-ol, propan-1-ol/acetonitrile and methanol/acetonitrile. The variation of excess refractive indices and excess molar volumes with composition was modeled by the Redlich-Kister polynomial function in the case of binary mixtures and by the Cibulka equation for the ternary mixture. A thermodynamic approach to excess refractive indices, recently proposed by other authors, was applied for the first time to ternary liquid mixtures. Structural effects were identified and interpreted both in the binary and ternary systems. A complex relationship between excess refractive indices and excess molar volumes was identified, revealing all four possible sign combinations between these two properties. Structuring of the mixtures was also discussed on the basis of partial molar volumes of the binary and ternary mixtures.

Brownian bridge and other path-dependent Gaussian processes vectorial simulation

The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Ulenbeck mean reversion process.