Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth

Forecasts of differences in growth between countries serve an important role in the justification of governments��� fiscal policy stances, but are not tested for their accuracy as part of the current range of forecast evaluation methods. This paper examines forecasted and outturn growth differentials between countries to identify if there is usefulness in forecasts of “relative” growth. Using OECD forecasts and outturn values for GDP growth for (combinations of) the G7 countries between 1984 and 2010, the paper finds that the OECD’s success in predicting the relative growth of G7 countries during this period is good. For each two-country combination results indicate that relative growth forecasts are less useful for countries which have smaller outturn growth differentials.

The Inflation Risk Premium on Government Debt in an Overlapping Generations Model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which nominal government debt pays an inflation risk premium. The model predicts that the inflation risk premium will be higher in economies which are exposed to unanticipated inflation through nominal asset holdings. In particular, the inflation risk premium is higher when government debt is primarily nominal, steady-state inflation is low, and when cash and nominal debt account for a large fraction of consumers' retirement portfolios. These channels do not appear to have been highlighted in previous models or tested empirically. Numerical results suggest that the inflation risk premium is comparable in magnitude to standard representative agent models. These findings have implications for management of government debt, since the inflation risk premium makes it more costly for governments to borrow using nominal rather than indexed debt. Simulations of an extended model with Epstein-Zin preferences suggest that increasing the share of indexed debt would enable governments to permanently lower taxes by an amount that is quantitatively non-trivial.

Determinants of public education expenditure: Evidence from Indian states

Public education expenditure varies significantly across Indian states. Using data on sixteen Indian states from 2001-2010, the paper tries to identify the determinants of per capita education expenditure of state governments in India. The econometric findings indicate that richer states spend more on education compared to the poorer states. A lower share of child population (0-14 years) is found to significantly enhance education expenditure at the state level. We do not find any evidence that political factors such as political ideology of the ruling party and level of corruption affect education expenditure of state governments.

International Aid to Tanzania – with some comparisons from Ghana and Uganda

This paper has three principal objectives. First, to review the level of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Tanzania over the last two to three decades, and to place this into an economic context. This review includes some comparisons with the experience of Ghana and Uganda. Second, to discuss three major issues for the Tanzanian aid: the position of ODA as budget support, corruption, and alignment with the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. Third, to review the literature on the Tanzanian aid experience, including a range of official evaluation reports produced by the Tanzanian government and by the donor community. The conclusions, broadly, are that ODA has been at a sustained high level for most of the period reviewed, funding a significant amount of government development expenditure, and that economic growth has been strong, with poverty reduction ‘flat-lining’ in Tanzania but being significant in Ghana and Uganda. Experience with budget support in Tanzania has been mixed, corruption continues as a major concern, and improvements to public finance management have been difficult to achieve. In this context governance adjustments come slowly, requiring patience on the part of both recipient governments and the ODA donor community.

Policy initiatives and firms’ access to external finance: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies

This paper analyses the impact of policy initiatives co-ordinated by Asian national governments on firms' access to external finance, using a unique firm-level database of eight Asian countries- Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand over the period of 1996-2012. Using a difference-indifferences approach and controlling for firm-level and macroeconomic factors, the results show a significant impact of policy on firms' access to external finance. After splitting firms into constrained and unconstrained, using several criteria, the results document that unconstrained firms benefited significantly in obtaining external finance, compared to their constrained counterparts. Finally, we show that the increase in access to external finance after the policy initiative helped firms to raise their investment spending, especially for unconstrained firms.

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Traditional Chinese materia medica: a retrospect and prospect

For thousands of years, traditional medicine and remedies have been practed and used in the fight against disease in China. They have proved to be valuable and the distillate of vast historical experience based on field-tested human experiments, long-term observations and clinical trials. The Chinese people belive that traditional medicine is consistent with theirown culture. Endowed with a unique theoretical system and provided outstanding clinical results, traditional Chinese medicine continues to play an important role in helping the Chinese nation flourish. The recent study of traditional medicinal plants in Chine has given us confidence that what was recorded in ancient medical literature through empirical observations is indeed still coindicent with the concepts of modern chemistry, pharmacology and medicine. The task of revealing what is valid and efficacious should be retained, and what is mythic and invalid should be discarded in traditional Chinese medicine may require scientific research lasting for several generations. Therfore, multidisciplinary cooperation and international collaboration in this field would be essential. Systematic coordination of work in traditional medicine by word organizations, national governments, private foundations and individual scientists is a requisite as well.

El Nuevo acuerdo de financiación regional: un análisis de urgencia ADENDA

This note contains some addenda to a recent paper (de la Fuente, 2009) that analyzed the new Spanish system of regional financing on the basis of the agreement between the central and regional Governments reached last July. The note updates my previous discussion after examining the bill that has been recently sent to Parliament by the Government and identifies some technical problems of the Government's proposal.

Inter-regional redistribution through infrastructure investment: tactical or programmatic?

In this paper we analyze the effects of both tactical and programmatic politics on the inter-regional allocation of infrastructure investment. We use a panel of data for the Spanish electoral districts during the period 1964-2004 to estimate an equation where investment depends both on economic and political variables. The results show that tactical politics do matter since, after controlling for economic traits, the districts with more ‘Political power’ still receive more investment. These districts are those where the incumbents’ Vote margin of victory/ defeat in the past election is low, where the Marginal seat price is low, where there is Partisan alignment between the executives at the central and regional layers of government, and where there are Pivotal regional parties which are influential in the formation of the central executive. However, the results also show that programmatic politics matter, since inter-regional redistribution (measured as the elasticity of investment to per capita income) is shown to increase with the arrival of the Democracy and EU Funds, with Left governments, and to decrease the higher is the correlation between a measure of ‘Political power’ and per capita income.

És sostenible el nostre sistema de pensions?

En el document es discuteix l’afirmació estàndard sobre que el sistema de pensions de jubilació públiques a Espanya –i, per extensió, els sistemes públics europeus- no és financerament viable. Es mostra perquè la pròpia interrogació retòrica que recull el títol és de fet una pregunta mal formulada (oblida coses essencials). I es posa de manifest que un sistema de pensions de jubilació privat –com els dels fons de pensions de les entitats financeres- sols és viable per a una minoria de la població: la de rendes més elevades

Pre-jubilacions i progrés: un absurd del nostre temps?

El sentit comú ens diu que si una persona que està treballant, és a dir, produint, deixa de fer-ho en ser pre-jubilada, posem als 52 anys, la societat a la que pertany disminueix el seu potencial productiu. No obstant això les pre-jubilacions es defensen normalment com una necessitat per a que l’empresa sigui més competitiva i així el país sigui més competitiu. L’absurd a que es refereix el títol pot resumir-se així: ‘reduir el potencial productiu del país per a fer el país més competitiu’. Com d’altres absurds similars, te, clar, la seva ‘explicació’ social-política. I de fet els economistes tendim a mirar amb certa condescendència als qui verbalitzen un absurd d’aquests tipus, perquè deduïm que qui ho fa no és capaç d’adonar-se’n que aquestes qüestions econòmiques no són tan senzilles. O, en el fons si que ho són?

La Doctrina de la libertad de comercio internacional: ¿Se puede hablar realmente de ventajas comparativas?

Una de las características de la "nueva economía" o economía globalizada, es algo que no suele destacarse: que han desaparecido de hecho las denominadas "ventajas comparativas" de un país respecto a otro; si no consideramos como tal el que un país tenga unos salarios míseros. Ventajas comparativas "naturales" y "adquiribles": la inconsistencia de recetar: "especializarse y comerciar" a cualquiera de las decenas de países pobres. Coherencia: Auto-recetarnos la solidaridad internacional asimétrica, vía comercio internacional; pero, ¿quienes la pagan?

Paro y libre comercio exterior: una contradicción incómoda para economistas y políticos

Liberalización mundial del comercio exterior, y deslocalización: ¿Este binomio hace que los países industrializados ayuden realmente a los subdesarrollados (más allá de beneficiar a las empresas importadoras -en los segundos- y a las deslocalizadoras –en los primeros)? Y, en caso afirmativo, ¿quines –en los países ‘industrializados’-soportan el coste de esa ayuda? Esto suscita cuestiones incómodas – generalmente no abordadas, precisamente por ello- entre los profesionales de la economía y los políticos. Distinguir entre quienes ganan o no y quienes pierden dentro de un mismo país (asalariados por una parte, empresas import-export por otra) resulta en cualquier caso necesario para esclarecer las probables consecuencias del libre comercio exterior entre países desiguales.

¿A qué responde la doctrina de la libre circulación internacional de capitales y del ‘libre mercado de empresas’?

La liberalización mundial de la circulación de capitales se ha defendido y se ha convertido en un dogma mundial con el argumento de que es algo bueno especialmente para los países menos desarrollados. Y la dramática crisis financiera de 2008 no ha hecho cambiar substancialmente el fondo de este dogma. En síntesis, éste reza que la libre circulación de capitales facilita las inversiones extranjeras en países en desarrollo o simplemente pobres, por lo que aumentará el total de inversiones reales en los mismos, y, por tanto, su desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, la principal consecuencia de tal liberalización ha sido y es un gigantesco movimiento especulativo diario de capitales para la compra-venta de activos financieros –y empresas rentables- en cualquier país. Y no especialmente para inversiones propiamente dichas, en activos reales como bienes de equipo e instalaciones productivas o en infraestructuras.

¿Por qué llamamos competitividad a lo que es fría presión hacia la reducción de costes?

¿Quién soporta los costes de la ‘reducción de costes’? La competencia entre empresas implica, lógicamente, que unas dejan de producir al quedarse sin demandantes y cansarse sus propietarios de perder dinero, mientras las exitosas mejoran sus resultados. Y las personas que trabajaban en las primeras pasan a la situación de parados. Cuando esta competencia empresarial es interna a un país, existen –o existe la posibilidad de instrumentar- mecanismos de compensación (sistema de subsidios de paro). De alguna manera, mejor o peor, más o menos justamente, los que salen ganando comparten así parte de sus ganancias con los que salen perdiendo. Pero respecto al mismo tipo de consecuencias, cuando la competencia es internacional tales mecanismos de compensación no existen. Ni siquiera en la UE los hay aún. ¿No deberíamos pensar en hacer algo al respecto?