Global interactions between fire and vegetation, human activities and climate

Doutoramento em Engenharia Florestal - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Environmental Dynamics of Dissolved Black Carbon in Aquatic Ecosystems

Black carbon (BC), the incomplete combustion product from biomass and fossil fuel burning, is ubiquitously found in soils, sediments, ice, water and atmosphere. Because of its polyaromatic molecular characteristic, BC is believed to contribute significantly to the global carbon budget as a slow-cycling, refractory carbon pool. However, the mass balance between global BC generation and accumulation does not match, suggesting a removal mechanism of BC to the active carbon pool, most probable in a dissolved form. The presence of BC in waters as part of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) pool was recently confirmed via ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry, and dissolved black carbon (DBC), a degradation product of charcoal, was found in marine and coastal environments. However, information on the loadings of DBC in freshwater environments and its global riverine flux from terrestrial systems to the oceans remained unclear. The main objectives of this study were to quantify DBC in diverse aquatic ecosystems and to determine its environmental dynamics. Surface water samples were collected from aquatic environments with a spatially significant global distribution, and DBC concentrations were determined by a chemical oxidation method coupled with HPLC detection. While it was clear that biomass burning was the main sources of BC, the translocation mechanism of BC to the dissolved phase was not well understood. Data from the regional studies and the developed global model revealed a strong positive correlation between DBC and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics, indicating a co-generation and co-translocation between soil OC and BC. In addition, a DOC-assistant DBC translocation mechanism was identified. Taking advantage of the DOC-DBC correlation model, a global riverine DBC flux to oceans on the order of 26.5 Mt C yr-1 (1 Mt = 1012 g) was determined, accounting for 10.6% of the global DOC flux. The results not only indicated that DOC was an important environmental intermediate for BC transfer and storage, but also provided an estimate of a major missing link in the global BC budget. The ever increasing DBC export caused by global warming will change the marine DOM quality and may have important consequences for carbon cycling in marine ecosystem.

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

Factors affecting current and future treeline locations and dynamics in the Peruvian Andes

The elevational distributions of tropical treelines are thought to be determined by temperature, and are predicted to shift upslope in response to global warming. In contrast to this hypothesis, global-scale studies have shown that only half of all studied treelines are shifting upslope. Understanding how treelines will respond to climate change has important implications for global biodiversity, especially in the tropics, because tropical treelines generally represent the upper-elevation distribution limit of the hyper-diverse cloudforest ecosystem. In Chapter 1, I introduce the idea that grasslands found above tropical treelines may represent a potential grass ceiling which forest species cannot cross or invade. I use an extensive literature review to outline potential mechanisms which may be acting to stabilize treeline and prevent forest expansion into high-elevation grasslands. In Chapters 2-4, I begin to explore these potential mechanisms through the use of observational and experimental methods. In Chapter 2, I show that there are significant numbers of seedlings occurring just outside of the treeline in the open grasslands and that seed rain is unlikely to limit seedling recruitment above treeline. I also show that microclimates outside of the closed-canopy cloudforest are highly variable and that mean temperatures are likely a poor explanation of tropical treeline elevations. In Chapter 3, I show that juvenile trees maintain freezing resistances similar to adults, but nighttime radiative cooling near the ground in the open grassland results in lower cold temperatures relative to the free atmosphere, exposing seedlings of some species growing above treeline to lethal frost events. In Chapter 4, I use a large-scale seedling transplant experiment to test the effects of mean temperature, absolute low temperature and shade on transplanted seedling survival. I find that increasing mean temperature negatively affects seedling survival of two treeline species while benefiting another. In addition, low temperature extremes and the presence of shade also appear to be important factors affecting seedling survival above tropical treelines. This work demonstrates that mean temperature is a poor predictor of tropical treelines and that temperature extremes, especially low temperatures, and non-climatic variables should be included in predictions of current and future tropical treeline dynamics.^

Novel insights into the dynamics of green turtle fibropapillomatosis

Outbreaks of fibropapillomatosis (FP), a neoplastic infectious disease of marine turtles, have occurred worldwide since the 1980s. Its most likely aetiological agent is a virus, but disease expression depends on external factors, typically associated with altered environments. The scarcity of robust long-term data on disease prevalence has limited interpretations on the impacts of FP on turtle populations. Here we model the dynamics of FP at 2 green turtle foraging aggregations in Puerto Rico, through 18 yr of capture-mark-recapture data (1997−2014). We observed spatiotemporal variation in FP prevalence, potentially modulated via individual site-fidelity. FP ex pression was residency dependent, and FP-free individuals developed tumours after 1.8 ± 0.8 yr (mean ± SD) in the infected area. Recovery from the disease was likely, with complete tumour regression occurring in 2.7 ± 0.7 yr (mean ± SD). FP does not currently seem to be a major threat to marine turtle populations; however, disease prevalence is yet unknown in many areas. Systematic monitoring is highly advisable as human-induced stressors can lead to deviations in host− pathogen relationships and disease virulence. Finally, data collection should be standardized for a global assessment of FP dynamics and impacts.

Symbolic dynamics generated by a hybrid chaotic systems

We consider piecewise defined differential dynamical systems which can be analysed through symbolic dynamics and transition matrices. We have a continuous regime, where the time flow is characterized by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) which has explicit solutions, and the singular regime, where the time flow is characterized by an appropriate transformation. The symbolic codification is given through the association of a symbol for each distinct regular system and singular system. The transition matrices are then determined as linear approximations to the symbolic dynamics. We analyse the dependence on initial conditions, parameter variation and the occurrence of global strange attractors.

The Scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) and its Association with Quality of Life in Ambulatory Patients Receiving Radiotherapy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the scored Patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) tool as an outcome measure in clinical nutrition practice and determine its association with quality of life (QoL). DESIGN: A prospective 4 week study assessing the nutritional status and QoL of ambulatory patients receiving radiation therapy to the head, neck, rectal or abdominal area. SETTING: Australian radiation oncology facilities. SUBJECTS: Sixty cancer patients aged 24-85 y. INTERVENTION: Scored PG-SGA questionnaire, subjective global assessment (SGA), QoL (EORTC QLQ-C30 version 3). RESULTS: According to SGA, 65.0% (39) of subjects were well-nourished, 28.3% (17) moderately or suspected of being malnourished and 6.7% (4) severely malnourished. PG-SGA score and global QoL were correlated (r=-0.66, P<0.001) at baseline. There was a decrease in nutritional status according to PG-SGA score (P<0.001) and SGA (P<0.001); and a decrease in global QoL (P<0.001) after 4 weeks of radiotherapy. There was a linear trend for change in PG-SGA score (P<0.001) and change in global QoL (P=0.003) between those patients who improved (5%) maintained (56.7%) or deteriorated (33.3%) in nutritional status according to SGA. There was a correlation between change in PG-SGA score and change in QoL after 4 weeks of radiotherapy (r=-0.55, P<0.001). Regression analysis determined that 26% of the variation of change in QoL was explained by change in PG-SGA (P=0.001). CONCLUSION: The scored PG-SGA is a nutrition assessment tool that identifies malnutrition in ambulatory oncology patients receiving radiotherapy and can be used to predict the magnitude of change in QoL.

Reducing the global burden of depression : population level analysis of intervention cost-effectiveness in 14 world regions

International evidence on the cost and effects of interventions for reducing the global burden of depression remain scarce. Aims: To estimate the population-level cost-effectiveness of evidence-based depression interventions and their contribution towards reducing current burden. Method: Primary-care-based depression interventions were modelled at the level of whole populations in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. Total population-level costs (in international dollars or I$) and effectiveness (disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted) were combined to form average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Evaluated interventions have the potential to reduce the current burden of depression by 10–30%. Pharmacotherapy with older antidepressant drugs, with or without proactive collaborative care, are currently more cost-effective strategies than those using newer antidepressants, particularly in lower-income subregions. Conclusions: Even in resource-poor regions, each DALYaverted by efficient depression treatments in primary care costs less than 1 year of average per capita income, making such interventions a cost-effective use of health resources. However, current levels of burden can only be reduced significantlyif there is a substantialincrease substantial increase intreatment coverage.