05046-017 Dry Run Creek Watershed Final Report

Dry Run Creek Watershed was designated an impaired waterbody by DNR in 2002, following an assessment of the biota in the stream by DNR Biologist, Tom Wilton. Subsequent studies by IOWATER Snapshot effort in 2003, found e-coli bacteria concentrations and high nitrate readings in excess of the State of Iowa limits for recreational streams. The Dry Run Creek Watershed Improvement Project is comprised of five major components. Three components will feature demonstrations of structural best management practices (BMPs) to protect water quality in Dry Run Creek. The fourth is an educational workshop to "kick-off" the initiative and background the stakeholders of the watershed in new stormwater management strategies for water quality protection. The fifth is a monitoring program that will provide data on the effectiveness of the practices to be demonstrated. Measurable outcomes from these projects include monitoring to document the effectiveness of infiltration­ based BMPs to reduce pollutant loading in urban stormwater runoff and reducing the volume of stormwater discharged directly into Dry Run Creek via storm sewer flows. Understanding of and social acceptance of new stormwater strategies and practices will also be monitored by surveys of watershed stakeholders and compared to findings of a survey done before the start of the project.

05028-010 Urban Watershed of Dickinson Cty Lakes Final Report

The Dickinson SWCD is applying for $486,800 over three years from the Watershed Improvement Fund to enhance water quality in Dickinson County through an impairment-based, locally directed watershed improvement project dealing specifically with storm water runoff. The LID Project will provide a cost share incentive and technical expertise to individual and business owners in specially targeted districts who are willing to implement low impact development techniques such as rain gardens, bioswales, pervious paving to reduce storm water runoff from their properties. Goals for the project include: 1) Defining and prioritizing urban watersheds in the Iowa Great Lakes region for implementation of Low Impact Development Practices; 2) Providing technical expertise in the form of a graduate assistant/project manager to design and oversee construction; 3) Continuing public education of such practices and their local existence through project kiosk, brochures, County Naturalist programs, local cable television shows, tours and other interactions of the Clean Water Alliance with its 50 partners in the area concerned about water quality; and 4) Completing 125 separate projects over a three year period.

05035-012 Clear Lake Watershed Final Report

Clear Lake, Iowa's third largest natural lake, is located in Cerro Gordo County in north-central Iowa. The lake is a premier natural resource and popular recreational destination in north central Iowa, providing more than $40 million dollars annually to the local economy. Despite the lake's already strong recreational use, water quality concerns have not allowed the lake to reach its full recreational potential. Clear Lake is listed on Iowa's 2004 303(d) Impaired Waters List due to excessive levels of phosphorus, bacteria, and turbidity. Urban storm water runoff from the 8,600 acre watershed is a significant contributor to Clear Lake's impairment. There are over 68 storm water outlet points in the Clear Lake watershed that allow untreated urban runoff to empty directly into Clear Lake. Local governments have been very active in installing storm water Best Management Practices (BMPs) at as many of the outlets that current funding allows. To date, 11 of the 68 sites (16%) have been protected. These improvements have been very effective in reducing contaminants in the storm water runoff, but the remaining outlets still need protection. The first phase of this grant request is for an investigation of 10 storm water outlet sites to determine the most cost effective BMP for each site. The second phase of the grant request is to implement the BMPs deemed most cost effective at 5 of the 10 sites investigated. The grant request addresses one of the main priorities of the Iowa Watershed Improvement Grant: storm water runoff.

1010-005 Bloody Run Creek Watershed Final Report

The City of Marquette lies in the 65,000 acre Mississippi River watershed, and is surrounded by steep bluffs. Though scenic, controlling water runoff during storm events presents significant challenges. Flash-flooding from the local watershed has plagued the city for decades. The people of Marquette have committed to preserve the water quality of key natural resources in the area including the Bloody Run Creek and associated wetlands by undertaking projects to control the spread of debris and sediment caused by excess runoff during area storm events. Following a July 2007 storm (over 8” of rain in 24 hours) which caused unprecedented flood damage, the City retained an engineering firm to study the area and provide recommendations to eliminate or greatly reduce uncontrolled runoff into the Bloody Run Creek wetland, infrastructure damage and personal property loss. Marquette has received Iowa Great Places designation, and has demonstrated its commitment to wetland preservation with the construction of Phase I of this water quality project. The Bench Area Storm Water Management Plan prepared by the City in 2008 made a number of recommendations to mitigate flash flooding by improving storm water conveyance paths, detention, and infrastructure within the Bench area. Due to steep slopes and rocky geography, infiltration based systems, though desirable, would not be an option over surface based systems. Runoff from the 240 acre watershed comes primarily from large, steep drainage areas to the south and west, flowing to the Bench area down three hillside routes; designated as South East, South Central and South West. Completion of Phase I, which included an increased storage capacity of the upper pond, addressed the South East and South Central areas. The increased upper pond capacity will now allow Phase II to proceed. Phase II will address runoff from the South West drainage area; which engineers have estimated to produce as much water volume as the South Central and South East areas combined. Total costs for Phase I are $1.45 million, of which Marquette has invested $775,000, and IJOBS funding contributed $677,000. Phase II costs are estimated at $617,000. WIRB funding support of $200,000 would expedite project completion, lessen the long term debt impact to the community and aid in the preservation of the Bloody Run Creek and adjoining wetlands more quickly than Marquette could accomplish on its own.

Can a Halo CME from the limb be geoeffective?

The probability for a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) to be geoeffective is assumed to be higher the closer the CME launch site is located to the solar central meridian. However, events far from the central meridian may produce severe geomagnetic storms, like the case in April 2000. In this work, we study the possible geoeffectiveness of full halo CMEs with the source region situated at solar limb. For this task, we select all limb full halo (LFH) CMEs that occurred during solar cycle 23, and we search for signatures of geoeffectiveness between 1 and 5 days after the first appearance of each CME in the LASCO C2 field of view. When signatures of geomagnetic activity are observed in the selected time window, interplanetary data are carefully analyzed in order to look for the cause of the geomagnetic disturbance. Finally, a possible association between geoeffective interplanetary signatures and every LFH CME in solar cycle 23 is checked in order to decide on the CME's geoeffectiveness. After a detailed analysis of solar, interplanetary, and geomagnetic data, we conclude that of the 25 investigated events, there are only four geoeffective LFH CMEs, all coming from the west limb. The geoeffectiveness of these events seems to be moderate, turning to intense in two of them as a result of cumulative effects from previous mass ejections. We conclude that ejections from solar locations close to the west limb should be considered in space weather, at least as sources of moderate disturbances.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Bioavailability of sinking organic matter in the Blanes canyon and the adjacent open slope (NW Mediterranean Sea)

Submarine canyons are sites of intense energy and material exchange between the shelf and the deep adjacent basins. To test the hypothesis that active submarine canyons represent preferential conduits of available food for the deep-sea benthos, two mooring lines were deployed at 1200 m depth from November 2008 to November 2009 inside the Blanes canyon and on the adjacent open slope (Catalan Margin, NW Mediterranean Sea). We investigated the fluxes, biochemical composition and food quality of sinking organic carbon (OC). OC fluxes in the canyon and the open slope varied among sampling periods, though not onsistently in the two sites. In particular, while in the open slope the highest OC fluxes were observed in August 2009, in the canyon the highest OC fluxes occurred in AprilMay 2009. For almost the entire study period, the OC fluxes in the canyon were significantly higher than those in the open slope, whereas OC contents of sinking particles collected in the open slope were consistently higher than those in the canyon. This result confirms that submarine canyons are effective conveyors of OC to the deep sea. Particles transferred to the deep sea floor through the canyons are predominantly of inorganic origin, significantly higher than that reaching the open slope at a similar water depth. Using multivariate statistical tests, two major clusters of sampling periods were identified: one in the canyon that grouped trap samples collected in December 2008, oncurrently with the occurrence of a major storm at the sea surface, and associated with increased fluxes of nutritionally available particles from the upper shelf. Another cluster grouped samples from both the canyon and the open slope collected in March 2009, concurrently with the occurrence of the seasonal phytoplankton bloom at the sea surface, and associated with increased fluxes of total phytopigments. Our results confirm the key ecological role of submarine canyons for the functioning of deep-sea ecosystems, and highlight the importance of canyons in linking episodic storms and primary production occurring at the sea surface to the deep sea floor.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Sediment budget monitoring of a debris-flow torrent (French Prealps)

The Manival near Grenoble (French Prealps) is a very active debris-flow torrent equipped with a large sediment trap (25 000 m3) protecting an urbanized alluvial fan from debris-flows. We began monitoring the sediment budget of the catchment controlled by the trap in Spring 2009. Terrestrial laser scanner is used for monitoring topographic changes in a small gully, the main channel, and the sediment trap. In the main channel, 39 cross-sections are surveyed after every event. Three periods of intense geomorphic activity are documented here. The first was induced by a convective storm in August 2009 which triggered a debris-flow that deposited ~1,800 m3 of sediment in the trap. The debris-flow originated in the upper reach of the main channel and our observations showed that sediment outputs were entirely supplied by channel scouring. Hillslope debris-flows were initiated on talus slopes, as revealed by terrestrial LiDAR resurveys; however they were disconnected to the main channel. The second and third periods of geomorphic activity were induced by long duration and low intensity rainfall events in September and October 2009 which generate small flow events with intense bedload transport. These events contribute to recharge the debris-flow channel with sediments by depositing important gravel dunes propagating from headwaters. The total recharge in the torrent subsequent to bedload transport events was estimated at 34% of the sediment erosion induced by the August debris-flow.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Uses of cancer registries for public health and clinical research in Europe : results of the European Network of Cancer Registries survey among 161 population-based cancer registries during 2010-2012

AIM: To provide insight into cancer registration coverage, data access and use in Europe. This contributes to data and infrastructure harmonisation and will foster a more prominent role of cancer registries (CRs) within public health, clinical policy and cancer research, whether within or outside the European Research Area. METHODS: During 2010-12 an extensive survey of cancer registration practices and data use was conducted among 161 population-based CRs across Europe. Responding registries (66%) operated in 33 countries, including 23 with national coverage. RESULTS: Population-based oncological surveillance started during the 1940-50s in the northwest of Europe and from the 1970s to 1990s in other regions. The European Union (EU) protection regulations affected data access, especially in Germany and France, but less in the Netherlands or Belgium. Regular reports were produced by CRs on incidence rates (95%), survival (60%) and stage for selected tumours (80%). Evaluation of cancer control and quality of care remained modest except in a few dedicated CRs. Variables evaluated were support of clinical audits, monitoring adherence to clinical guidelines, improvement of cancer care and evaluation of mass cancer screening. Evaluation of diagnostic imaging tools was only occasional. CONCLUSION: Most population-based CRs are well equipped for strengthening cancer surveillance across Europe. Data quality and intensity of use depend on the role the cancer registry plays in the politico, oncomedical and public health setting within the country. Standard registration methodology could therefore not be translated to equivalent advances in cancer prevention and mass screening, quality of care, translational research of prognosis and survivorship across Europe. Further European collaboration remains essential to ensure access to data and comparability of the results.

Bioavailability of sinking organic matter in the Blanes canyon and the adjacent open slope (NW Mediterranean Sea)

Submarine canyons are sites of intense energy and material exchange between the shelf and the deep adjacent basins. To test the hypothesis that active submarine canyons represent preferential conduits of available food for the deep-sea benthos, two mooring lines were deployed at 1200 m depth from November 2008 to November 2009 inside the Blanes canyon and on the adjacent open slope (Catalan Margin, NW Mediterranean Sea). We investigated the fluxes, biochemical composition and food quality of sinking organic carbon (OC). OC fluxes in the canyon and the open slope varied among sampling periods, though not onsistently in the two sites. In particular, while in the open slope the highest OC fluxes were observed in August 2009, in the canyon the highest OC fluxes occurred in April-May 2009. For almost the entire study period, the OC fluxes in the canyon were significantly higher than those in the open slope, whereas OC contents of sinking particles collected in the open slope were consistently higher than those in the canyon. This result confirms that submarine canyons are effective conveyors of OC to the deep sea. Particles transferred to the deep sea floor through the canyons are predominantly of inorganic origin, significantly higher than that reaching the open slope at a similar water depth. Using multivariate statistical tests, two major clusters of sampling periods were identified: one in the canyon that grouped trap samples collected in December 2008, oncurrently with the occurrence of a major storm at the sea surface, and associated with increased fluxes of nutritionally available particles from the upper shelf. Another cluster grouped samples from both the canyon and the open slope collected in March 2009, concurrently with the occurrence of the seasonal phytoplankton bloom at the sea surface, and associated with increased fluxes of total phytopigments. Our results confirm the key ecological role of submarine canyons for the functioning of deep-sea ecosystems, and highlight the importance of canyons in linking episodic storms and primary production occurring at the sea surface to the deep sea floor.

Effect of radar rainfall time resolution on the predictive capability of a distributed hydrologic model

The performance of a hydrologic model depends on the rainfall input data, both spatially and temporally. As the spatial distribution of rainfall exerts a great influence on both runoff volumes and peak flows, the use of a distributed hydrologic model can improve the results in the case of convective rainfall in a basin where the storm area is smaller than the basin area. The aim of this study was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the rainfall time resolution on the results of a distributed hydrologic model in a flash-flood prone basin. Within such a catchment, floods are produced by heavy rainfall events with a large convective component. A second objective of the current paper is the proposal of a methodology that improves the radar rainfall estimation at a higher spatial and temporal resolution. Composite radar data from a network of three C-band radars with 6-min temporal and 2 × 2 km2 spatial resolution were used to feed the RIBS distributed hydrological model. A modification of the Window Probability Matching Method (gauge-adjustment method) was applied to four cases of heavy rainfall to improve the observed rainfall sub-estimation by computing new Z/R relationships for both convective and stratiform reflectivities. An advection correction technique based on the cross-correlation between two consecutive images was introduced to obtain several time resolutions from 1 min to 30 min. The RIBS hydrologic model was calibrated using a probabilistic approach based on a multiobjective methodology for each time resolution. A sensitivity analysis of rainfall time resolution was conducted to find the resolution that best represents the hydrological basin behaviour.

Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs

We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

Approach to the Lower Pliocene marine-continental correlation from southern Spain. The micrommamal site of Alhaurín el Grande-1 (Málaga Basin, Betic Cordillera, Spain)

A new micromammal site at Alhaurín el Grande (Málaga, southern Spain) located above early Pliocene marine deposits allows an approach to the marine-continental correlation for this age. The early Pliocene marine filling throughout the Málaga Basin is developed in three transgressive-regressive sequences (Pl-1, Pl-2, and Pl-3 units) bounded by discontinuities. At the top of the intermediate sequence Pl-2, peaty sediments have yielded fossils of Rodentia, Lagomorpha, Insectivora, and Crocodylia. The presence of Cricetus barrieri Mein & Michaux, 1970 in combination with murids, both of primitive morphology, such as Apodemus gudrunae Van de Weerd, 1976, and more advanced forms (i.e. Occitanomys brailloni Michaux, 1969 and Stephanomys donnezani cordii Ruiz Bustos, 1986), points to an early Ruscinian age (MN 14 biozone). Based on the planktonic foraminifers, the biostratigraphic data indicate that marine sediments just below the micromammal beds belong to the MPl-2 biozone of the early Zanclean. Available paleomagnetic data from the marine sediments show that the micromammal bed must be located between the normal geomagnetic subchron C3n3n (4.89-4.80 Ma) and the subchron C3n2n (4.63-4.49 Ma), limiting the age of this site to the late part of the early Zanclean.