Shocking policy coefficients

This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discretionary fiscal policy has become more countercyclical over the last decades. In absence of such a change, surplus would have been higher, debt lower and output gap more volatile but only until mid 80s. An increase in the degree of counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy has a positive effect on output gap in periods where the level of debt-to-GDP ratio is low and a zero or negative effect when the ratio is high. This explains why a more countercylical stance of the systematic fiscal policy taking place in 2008:II is predicted to be rather ineffective for recovering from the crisis.

The alcohol purchase task in young men from the general population.

BACKGROUND: The alcohol purchase task (APT), which presents a scenario and asks participants how many drinks they would purchase and consume at different prices, has been used among students and small clinical samples to obtain measures of alcohol demand but not in large, general population samples. METHODS: We administered the APT to a large sample of young men from the general population (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors). Participants who reported drinking in the past year (n=4790), reported on past 12 months alcohol use, on DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUD) criteria and on alcohol related consequences were included. RESULTS: Among the APT's demand parameters, intensity was 8.7 (SD=6.5) indicating that, when drinks are free, participants report a planned consumption of almost 9 drinks. The maximum alcohol expenditure (Omax) was over 35CHF (1CHF=1.1USD) and the demand became elastic (Pmax) at 8.4CHF (SD=5.6). The mean price at which the consumption was suppressed was 15.6CHF (SD=5.4). Exponential equation provided a satisfactory fit to individual responses (mean R(2): 0.8, median: 0.8). Demand intensity was correlated with alcohol use, number of AUD criteria and number of consequences (all r≥0.3, p<0.0001). Omax was correlated with alcohol use (p<0.0001). The elasticity parameter was weakly correlated with alcohol use in the expected direction. CONCLUSION: The APT measures are useful in characterizing demand for alcohol in young men in the general population. Demand may provide a clinically useful index of strength of motivation for alcohol use in general population samples.

Cardio-pulmonary interaction in premature newborn with nasal continuous positive airways pressure (n-CPAP) respiratory assistance evaluated with echocardiography

Introduction: Nasal continuous positive airways pressure (n-CPAP) is an effective treatment in premature infants with respiratory distress. The cardio-pulmonary interactions secondary to n-CPAP are well studied in adults, but less well described in premature infants. We postulated that there could be important interactions with regard to the patent ductus arteriosus (PDA). Methods: Prospective study, approved by the local ethic committee. Premature infants less than 32 weeks gestation, _7 days-old, needing n-CPAP for respiratory distress, but without the need of additional oxygen were included in the study. Every patient had a first echocardiography with n-CPAP and then n-CPAP was retrieved. 3 hours later the echocardiography was repeated by the same investigator and then the patient replaced on n-CPAP. Results: 14 premature newborn were included, mean gestational age of 28 _ 2 weeks, mean weight 1.1 _ 0.3 Kg and height 39 _ 3 cm. Echocardiographic measurements are depicted in Table 1. Significant finding were observed between measurement on n- CPAP or without n-CPAP: on end diastolic left ventricular diameter (12.8 _ 1.6 mm vs. 13.5 _ 2 mm), on end systolic left ventricular diameter (8.4 _ 1.3 mm vs. 9.1 _ 1.5 mm), left atrium diameter (8.9 _ 2.2 mm vs. 10.4 _ 2.5 mm), maximal velocity on tricuspid valve (46 _ 10 cm/s vs. 51 _ 9 cm/s), calculated Qp (3.7 _ 0.8 L/min/m2 vs. 4.3 _ 0.8 L/min/m2). Only three patients have demonstrated a PDA during the study. Conclusion: Positive end expiratory pressure (Peep) has hemodynamic effects which are: reduction of systemic and pulmonary venous return as shown by the changes on tricuspid valve inflow,on the calculated Qp and finally on the diameter of the left atrium and left ventricle.We found in premature infants the same hemodynamic effects than those described in adults but with lower Peep values. This could be due to the particular elasticity and weakness of the thoracic wall of premature infants. Interestingly the flow through a PDA seems also to be diminished with Peep, but the number of patients is insufficient to conclude. Further investigation will be needed to better understand these interactions. Table 1. Echocardiographic measurement (mean (SD)). With n-CPAP Without n-CPAP p value RV ED diameter (mm) 6.3 (1.7) 6.04 (1.1) NS LV ED diameter (mm) 12.8 (1.6) 13.5 (2.0) _0.05 LV ES diameter (mm) 8.4 (1.3) 9.1 (1.5) _0.05 SF (%) 34 (5) 33 (6) NS Ao valve diameter (mm) 7.4 (1.3) 7.4 (1.2) NS LA diameter (mm) 8.9 (2.2) 10.4 (2.5) _0.05 Vmax Ao (cm/s) 70 (16) 71 (18) NS Vmax PV (cm/s) 69 (15) 72 (16) NS Vmax TV (cm/s) 46 (10) 51 (9) _0.05 Vmax MV (cm/s) 53 (17) 54 (18) NS Qp (L/min/m2) 3.7 (0.8) 4.3 (0.8) _0.05 Qs (L/min/m2) 4.0 (0.8) 4.0 (0.7) NS Qp/Qs 0.92 (0.14) 1.09 (0.23) _0.05 RV: right ventricle, LV: left ventricle, ED: end diastolic, ES: end systolic, SF: shortening fraction,Ao: aortic valve, LA: left atrium,Vmax: maximum Doppler Velocity, Qp: pulmonary output, Qs: systemic output, NS: non significant.

How effective are policies to reduce gasoline consumption? evaluating a quasi-natural experiment in Spain

Using a panel of 48 provinces for four years we empirically analyze a series of temporary policies aimed at curbing fuel consumption implemented in Spain between March and June 2011. The first policy was a reduction in the speed limit in highways. The second policy was an increase in the biofuel content of fuels used in the transport sector. The third measure was a reduction of 5% in commuting and regional train fares that resulted in two major metropolitan areas reducing their overall fare for public transit. The results indicate that the speed limit reduction in highways reduced gasoline consumption by between 2% and 3%, while an increase in the biofuel content of gasoline increased this consumption. This last result is consistent with experimental evidence that indicates that mileage per liter falls with an increase in the biofuel content in gasolines. As for the reduction in transit fares, we do not find a significant effect for this policy. However, in specifications including the urban transit fare for the major cities in each province the estimated cross-price elasticity of the demand for gasoline -used as a proxy for car use- with respect to the price of transit is within the range reported in the literature. This is important since one of the main eficiency justification for subsidizing public transit rests on the positive value of this parameter and most of the estimates reported in the literature are quite dated.

Orthotropic active strain models for the numerical simulation of cardiac biomechanics

An active strain formulation for orthotropic constitutive laws arising in cardiac mechanics modeling is introduced and studied. The passive mechanical properties of the tissue are described by the Holzapfel-Ogden relation. In the active strain formulation, the Euler-Lagrange equations for minimizing the total energy are written in terms of active and passive deformation factors, where the active part is assumed to depend, at the cell level, on the electrodynamics and on the specific orientation of the cardiac cells. The well-posedness of the linear system derived from a generic Newton iteration of the original problem is analyzed and different mechanical activation functions are considered. In addition, the active strain formulation is compared with the classical active stress formulation from both numerical and modeling perspectives. Taylor-Hood and MINI finite elements are employed to discretize the mechanical problem. The results of several numerical experiments show that the proposed formulation is mathematically consistent and is able to represent the main key features of the phenomenon, while allowing savings in computational costs.

Supply Multipliers in Two Regional Economies

This paper focuses on the analysis of the economic impact that sectorial total factor productivity – or valued added - gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular it is studied the quantitative effect that each sector’s valued added injections has on household welfare (real disposable income), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government and foreign net income. To do that, we introduce the concept of supply multiplier. The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which it is assumed perfect competition and cleared markets of goods and factors. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow identifying those sectors with the greatest multipliers impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: efficiency gains, supply multipliers, key sectors, computable general equilibrium. JEL Classification: C68, R13.

Passive modernization? the new human development index and its components in Italy’s regions (1871-2007)

The article presents and discusses estimates of social and economic indicators for Italy’s regions in benchmark years roughly from Unification to the present day: life expectancy, education, GDP per capita at purchasing power parity, and the new Human Development Index (HDI). A broad interpretative hypothesis, based on the distinction between passive and active modernization, is proposed to account for the evolution of regional imbalances over the long-run. In the lack of active modernization, Southern Italy converged thanks to passive modernization, i.e., State intervention: however, this was more effective in life expectancy, less successful in education, expensive and as a whole ineffective in GDP. As a consequence, convergence in the HDI occurred from the late XIX century to the 1970s, but came to a sudden halt in the last decades of the XX century.

Occupational choice and development

The rise in world trade since 1970 has been accompanied by a rise in the geographic span of control of management and, hence, also a rise in the e ective international mobility of labor services. We study the e ect of such a globalization of the world's labor markets. The world's welfare gains depend positively on the skill-heterogeneity of the world's labor force. We nd that when peoplecan choose between wage work and managerial work, the worldwide labor market raises output by more in the rich and the poor countries, and by less in the middle-income countries. This is because the middle-income countries experience the smallest change in the factor-price ratio, and where the option to choose between wage work and managerial work has the least value in the integratedeconomy. Our theory also establishes that after economic integration, the high skill countries see a disproportionate increase in managerial occupations. Using aggregate data on GDP, openness and occupations from 115 countries, we find evidence for these patterns of occupational choice.

The political economy of childcare in OECD countries : Explaining cross-national variation in spending and coverage rates

If childcare policy has become topical in most OECD countries over the last ten years or so, actual developments display huge cross-national variations. Countries like Sweden and Denmark spend around 2 per cent of GDP on this service, and provide affordable childcare places to most children below school age. At the other extreme, in Southern Europe, only around 10 per cent of this age group has access to formal daycare. Against this background, this article aims to account for cross-national variations in childcare services. It distinguishes two dependent variables: the coverage rate and the proportion of GDP spent subsidising childcare services. Using a mix of cross-sectional and pooled times-series methods, it tests a series of hypotheses concerning the determinants of the development of this policy. Its main conclusion for the coverage rate is that key factors are public spending and wage dispersion (both positive). For spending, key factors are the proportion of women in parliaments (positive) and spending on age-related policies (negative).

Significance of serum adiponectin levels in patients with chronic liver disease.

Adiponectin, which plays a pivotal role in metabolic liver diseases, is reduced in concentration in patients with NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis). The aim of the present study was to determine adiponectin concentrations in patients with different forms and stages of chronic liver diseases. Serum adiponectin concentrations were measured in 232 fasting patients with chronic liver disease: 64 with NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease), 123 with other chronic liver disease (e.g. viral hepatitis, n=71; autoimmune disease, n=18; alcohol-induced liver disease, n=3; or elevated liver enzymes of unknown origin, n=31) and 45 with cirrhosis. Circulating adiponectin levels were significantly lower in patients with NAFLD in comparison with patients with other chronic liver disease (4.8+/-3.5 compared with 10.4+/-6.3 microg/ml respectively; P<0.0001). Circulating adiponectin levels were significantly higher in patients with cirrhosis in comparison with patients without cirrhosis (18.6+/-14.5 compared with 8.4+/-6.1 microg/ml respectively; P<0.0001). Adiponectin concentrations correlated negatively with body weight (P<0.001), serum triacylglycerols (triglycerides) (P<0.001) and, in women, with BMI (body mass index) (P<0.001). Adiponectin concentrations correlated positively with serum bile acids (P<0.001), serum hyaluronic acid (P<0.001) and elastography values (P<0.001). Adiponectin levels were decreased in patients with NAFLD. In conclusion, adiponectin levels correlate positively with surrogate markers of hepatic fibrosis (transient elastography, fasting serum bile acids and hyaluronate) and are significantly elevated in cases of cirrhosis.

Tariff Equivalent of Technical Barriers to Trade with Imperfect Substitution and Trade Costs, November 2005

The price-wedge method yields a tariff-equivalent estimate of technical barriers to trade (TBT). An extension of this method accounts for imperfect substitution between domestic and imported goods and incorporates recent findings on trade costs. We explore the sensitivity of this revamped TBT estimate to its key determinants (substitution elasticity, preference for home good, and trade cost). We use the augmented approach to investigate the ongoing US-Japan apple trade dispute and find that removing the Japanese TBT would yield limited export gains to the United States. We then draw policy implications of our findings.

Savoir s'assurer : économie politique internationale des normes de services et mondialisation du marché de la (ré)assurance

The significance of the insurance industry in the functioning of the world economy is often underestimated, with premiums reaching 7.5 % of world gross domestic product (GDP), three times as much as worldwide military expenses. Insurance services mutualise risks in such a way as they provide a form of private governance that complements or makes up for guarantees otherwise supplied by the State. This case study of international standards developed for the insurance market provides evidence that deviates from conventional accounts considering service standards as heavily dependent of national environments and industry specificities. The chapter examines the relationship between tertiarisation, internationalisation and standardisation of contemporary economies by highlighting the complementarity between institutionalist approaches of the French regulation school and international political economy scholarship shedding light on the polarisation in the possible use of standards, notwithstanding thesectoraland institutional specificities of the activities concerned.

Comparative Study of Chemoembolization, Loadable Beads: In vitro Drug Release and Physical Properties of DC Bead and Hepasphere, Loaded with Doxorubicin and Irinotecan

Purpose To characterize in vitro the loadability, physical properties, and release of irinotecan and doxorubicin from two commercially available embolization microspheres. Materials and Methods DC Bead (500-700 μm) and Hepasphere (400-600 μm) microspheres were loaded with either doxorubicin or irinotecan solutions. Drug amount was quantified with spectrophotometry, bead elasticity was measured under compression, and bead size and loading homogeneity were assessed with microscopy image analysis. Drug release was measured over 1-week periods in saline by using a pharmacopeia flow-through method. Results Almost complete drug loading was obtained for both microsphere types and drugs. Doxorubicin-loaded DC Beads maintained their spherical shape throughout the release. In contrast, Hepaspheres showed less homogeneous doxorubicin loading and, after release, some fractured microspheres. Incomplete doxorubicin release was observed in saline over 1 week (27% ± 2 for DC beads and 18% ± 7 for Hepaspheres; P = .013). About 75% of this amount was released within 2.2 hours for both beads. For irinotecan, complete release was obtained for both types of beads, in a sustained manner over 2-3 hours for DC Beads, and in a significantly faster manner as a 7-minute burst for Hepaspheres. Conclusions The two drug-eluting microspheres could be efficiently loaded with both drugs. Incomplete doxorubicin release was attributed to strong drug-bead ionic interactions. Weaker interactions were observed with irinotecan, which led to faster drug release.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliary regression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d ∈ [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d & 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 ≤ d & 1,, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributed tests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.