Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.

Synthesis of novel hyperbranched polymers featuring oxazoline linear units and their application in fast-drying solvent-borne coating formulations

Novel acid-terminated hyperbranched polymers (HBPs) containing adipic acid and oxazoline monomers derived from oleic and linoleic acid have been synthesized via a bulk polymerization procedure. Branching was achieved as a consequence of an acid-catalyzed opening of the oxazoline ring to produce a trifunctional monomer in situ which delivered branching levels of >45% as determined by 1H and 13C NMR spectroscopy. The HBPs were soluble in common solvents, such as CHCl3, acetone, tetrahydrofuran, dimethylformamide, and dimethyl sulfoxide and were further functionalized by addition of citronellol to afford white-spirit soluble materials that could be used in coating formulations. During end group modification, a reduction in branching levels of the HBPs (down to 12–24%) was observed, predominantly on account of oxazoline ring reformation and trans-esterification processes under the reaction conditions used. In comparison to commercial alkyd resin paint coatings, formulations of the citronellol-functionalized hyperbranched materials blended with a commercial alkyd resin exhibited dramatic decreases of the blend viscosity when the HBP content was increased. The curing characteristics of the HBP/alkyd blend formulations were studied by dynamic mechanical analysis which revealed that the new coatings cured more quickly and produced tougher materials than otherwise identical coatings prepared from only the commercial alkyd resins.

A comparative analysis of the accuracy and uncertainty in real estate and macroeconomic forecasts

We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

The destinies of literary manuscripts: past present and future

This essay reviews the ways in which literary manuscripts may be considered to be archivally unique, as well as valuable in all senses of the word, and gives a cautious appraisal of their future in the next ten to twenty years. It reviews the essential nature of literary manuscripts, and especially the ways in which they form “split collections”. This leads to an assessment of the work of the Diasporic Literary Archives network from 2012 to 2014, and some of the key findings. The essay closes with reflections on the future of literary manuscripts in the digital age – emerging trends, research findings, uncertainties and unknowns.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Corporate responsibility research: past – present – future

The concept of corporate responsibility (CR) has moved a long way over the past six decades, since Bowen’s book titled Social Responsibilities of the Businessman marked a modern era of business and society research. In this article, we trace the development of business and society literature to provide contextual background to contemporary studies of CR. As well as looking backward, however, we also project forward arguing that fundamental changes in the current business environment are likely to propel CR to new heights in the future. In particular, we explore the mechanisms by which CR affects stakeholder behavior and suggest ways in which scholars and practitioners may want to apply advances from psychology to link CR strategy to human motivation and the notion of balance in organizations and society.

Non-visual and multisensory BCI systems: present and future

During the past decade, brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) have rapidly developed, both in technological and application domains. However, most of these interfaces rely on the visual modality. Only some research groups have been studying non-visual BCIs, primarily based on auditory and, sometimes, on somatosensory signals. These non-visual BCI approaches are especially useful for severely disabled patients with poor vision. From a broader perspective, multisensory BCIs may offer more versatile and user-friendly paradigms for control and feedback. This chapter describes current systems that are used within auditory and somatosensory BCI research. Four categories of noninvasive BCI paradigms are employed: (1) P300 evoked potentials, (2) steady-state evoked potentials, (3) slow cortical potentials, and (4) mental tasks. Comparing visual and non-visual BCIs, we propose and discuss different possible multisensory combinations, as well as their pros and cons. We conclude by discussing potential future research directions of multisensory BCIs and related research questions

Adaptive social protection: mapping the evidence and policy context in the agriculture sector in south Asia

An aim of government and the international community is to respond to global processes and crises through a range of policy and practical approaches that help limit damage from shocks and stresses. Three approaches to vulnerability reduction that have become particularly prominent in recent years are social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Although these approaches have much in common, they have developed separately over the last two decades. However, given the increasingly complex and interlinked array of risks that poor and vulnerable people face, it is likely that they will not be sufficient in the long run if they continue to be applied in isolation from one another. In recognition of this challenge, the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has been developed. ASP refers to a series of measures which aims to build resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people to climate change by combining elements of SP, DRR and CCA in programmes and projects. The aim of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of the ways in which these elements are being brought together in development policy and practice. It does this by conducting a meta-analysis of 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in south Asia. These are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The findings show that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA is relatively limited in south Asia, although there has been significant progress in combining SP and DRR in the last ten years. Projects that combine elements of SP, DRR and CCA tend to emphasise broad poverty and vulnerability reduction goals relative to those that do not. Such approaches can provide valuable lessons and insights for the promotion of climate resilient livelihoods amongst policymakers and practitioners.

Ecto- and arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis can induce tolerance to toxic pulses of phosphorus in jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) seedlings

In common with many plants native to low P soils, jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) develops toxicity symptoms upon exposure to elevated phosphorus (P). Jarrah plants can establish arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) associations, along with a non-colonizing symbiosis described recently. AM colonization is known to influence the pattern of expression of genes required for P uptake of host plants and our aim was to investigate this phenomenon in relation to P sensitivity. Therefore, we examined the effect on hosts of the presence of AM and ECM fungi in combination with toxic pulses of P and assessed possible correlations between the induced tolerance and the shoot P concentration. The P transport dynamics of AM (Rhizophagus irregularis and Scutellospora calospora), ECM (Scleroderma sp.), non-colonizing symbiosis (Austroboletus occidentalis), dual mycorrhizal (R. irregularis and Scleroderma sp.), and non-mycorrhizal (NM) seedlings were monitored following two pulses of P. The ECM and A. occidentalis associations significantly enhanced the shoot P content of jarrah plants growing under P-deficient conditions. In addition, S. calospora, A. occidentalis, and Scleroderma sp. all stimulated plant growth significantly. All inoculated plants had significantly lower phytotoxicity symptoms compared to NM controls 7 days after addition of an elevated P dose (30 mg P kg−1 soil). Following exposure to toxicity-inducing levels of P, the shoot P concentration was significantly lower in R. irregularis-inoculated and dually inoculated plants compared to NM controls. Although all inoculated plants had reduced toxicity symptoms and there was a positive linear relationship between rank and shoot P concentration, the protective effect was not necessarily explained by the type of fungal association or the extent of mycorrhizal colonization.

Evolutionary tuning of SVM parameter values in multiclass problems

Support vector machines (SVMs) were originally formulated for the solution of binary classification problems. In multiclass problems, a decomposition approach is often employed, in which the multiclass problem is divided into multiple binary subproblems, whose results are combined. Generally, the performance of SVM classifiers is affected by the selection of values for their parameters. This paper investigates the use of genetic algorithms (GAs) to tune the parameters of the binary SVMs in common multiclass decompositions. The developed GA may search for a set of parameter values common to all binary classifiers or for differentiated values for each binary classifier. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cross-situational and supervised learning in the emergence of communication

Scenarios for the emergence or bootstrap of a lexicon involve the repeated interaction between at least two agents who must reach a consensus on how to name N objects using H words. Here we consider minimal models of two types of learning algorithms: cross-situational learning, in which the individuals determine the meaning of a word by looking for something in common across all observed uses of that word, and supervised operant conditioning learning, in which there is strong feedback between individuals about the intended meaning of the words. Despite the stark differences between these learning schemes, we show that they yield the same communication accuracy in the limits of large N and H, which coincides with the result of the classical occupancy problem of randomly assigning N objects to H words.