Trees: radiocarbon and dendrochronology - together for the Resolution project

The year 14,226 BP marks an important border in the actual radiocarbon (14C) calibration curve: the high resolution and precision characterising the first part (0 – 14,226 BP) of the curve are due to the potential represented by tree-ring datasets, which directly provide the atmospheric 14C content at the time of tree-rings formation with high resolution. They systematically decrease going back in time, where only a few floating tree-ring chronologies alternate to other low-resolution records. The lack of resolution in the dating procedure before 14,226 years BP leads to significant issues in the interpretation and untangling of tricky facts of our past, in the field of Human Evolution. Research on sub-fossil trees and the construction of new Glacial tree-ring chronologies can significantly improve the radiocarbon dating in terms of temporal resolution and precision until 55,000 years BP to clear puzzles in the Human Evolution history. In this thesis, the dendrochronological study, the radiocarbon dating and the extrapolation of environmental and climate information from sub-fossil trees found on the Portugal foreshore, remnants of a Glacial lagoonal forest, are presented. The careful sampling, the dendrochronological measurements and cross-dating, the application of the most suitable cellulose extraction protocol and the most advanced technologies of the MICADAS system at ETH-Zurich, led to the construction of a new 220-years long tree-ring site chronology and to high resolution, highly reliable and with a tight error range radiocarbon ages. At the moment, it results impossible to absolutely date this radiocarbon sequence by the comparison of Δ14C of the trees and 10 Be fluctuations from the ice-cores. For this reason, tree growth analysis, comparisons with a living pine stand and forest-fires history reconstruction have made it possible to hypothesize site and climate characteristics useful to constrain the positioning in time of the obtained radiocarbon sequence.

Excitonic properties of transition metal oxide perovskites and workflow automatization of GW schemes

The Many-Body-Perturbation Theory approach is among the most successful theoretical frameworks for the study of excited state properties. It allows to describe the excitonic interactions, which play a fundamental role in the optical response of insulators and semiconductors. The first part of the thesis focuses on the study of the quasiparticle, optical and excitonic properties of \textit{bulk} Transition Metal Oxide (TMO) perovskites using a G$_0$W$_0$+Bethe Salpeter Equation (BSE) approach. A representative set of 14 compounds has been selected, including 3d, 4d and 5d perovskites. An approximation of the BSE scheme, based on an analytic diagonal expression for the inverse dielectric function, is used to compute the exciton binding energies and is carefully bench-marked against the standard BSE results. In 2019 an important breakthrough has been achieved with the synthesis of ultrathin SrTiO3 films down to the monolayer limit. This allows us to explore how the quasiparticle and optical properties of SrTiO3 evolve from the bulk to the two-dimensional limit. The electronic structure is computed with G0W0 approach: we prove that the inclusion of the off-diagonal self-energy terms is required to avoid non-physical band dispersions. The excitonic properties are investigated beyond the optical limit at finite momenta. Lastly a study of the under pressure optical response of the topological nodal line semimetal ZrSiS is presented, in conjunction with the experimental results from the group of Prof. Dr. Kuntscher of the Augsburg University. The second part of the thesis discusses the implementation of a workflow to automate G$_0$W$_0$ and BSE calculations with the VASP software. The workflow adopts a convergence scheme based on an explicit basis-extrapolation approach [J. Klimeš \textit{et al.}, Phys. Rev.B 90, 075125 (2014)] which allows to reduce the number of intermediate calculations required to reach convergence and to explicit estimate the error associated to the basis-set truncation.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.

Decoding complex flow phenomena via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

In this thesis, the viability of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) as a technique to analyze and model complex dynamic real-world systems is presented. This method derives, directly from data, computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) which can replace too onerous or unavailable high-fidelity physics-based models. Optimizations and extensions to the standard implementation of the methodology are proposed, investigating diverse case studies related to the decoding of complex flow phenomena. The flexibility of this data-driven technique allows its application to high-fidelity fluid dynamics simulations, as well as time series of real systems observations. The resulting ROMs are tested against two tasks: (i) reduction of the storage requirements of high-fidelity simulations or observations; (ii) interpolation and extrapolation of missing data. The capabilities of DMD can also be exploited to alleviate the cost of onerous studies that require many simulations, such as uncertainty quantification analysis, especially when dealing with complex high-dimensional systems. In this context, a novel approach to address parameter variability issues when modeling systems with space and time-variant response is proposed. Specifically, DMD is merged with another model-reduction technique, namely the Polynomial Chaos Expansion, for uncertainty quantification purposes. Useful guidelines for DMD deployment result from the study, together with the demonstration of its potential to ease diagnosis and scenario analysis when complex flow processes are involved.

ICE Emissions Estimation through Machine-learning techniques to support real-world R&D experiments

The emissions estimation, both during homologation and standard driving, is one of the new challenges that automotive industries have to face. The new European and American regulation will allow a lower and lower quantity of Carbon Monoxide emission and will require that all the vehicles have to be able to monitor their own pollutants production. Since numerical models are too computationally expensive and approximated, new solutions based on Machine Learning are replacing standard techniques. In this project we considered a real V12 Internal Combustion Engine to propose a novel approach pushing Random Forests to generate meaningful prediction also in extreme cases (extrapolation, very high frequency peaks, noisy instrumentation etc.). The present work proposes also a data preprocessing pipeline for strongly unbalanced datasets and a reinterpretation of the regression problem as a classification problem in a logarithmic quantized domain. Results have been evaluated for two different models representing a pure interpolation scenario (more standard) and an extrapolation scenario, to test the out of bounds robustness of the model. The employed metrics take into account different aspects which can affect the homologation procedure, so the final analysis will focus on combining all the specific performances together to obtain the overall conclusions.