Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Simultaneous quantification of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and metabolites in human plasma by liquid chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry for therapeutic drug monitoring.

A simple and sensitive liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization mass spectrometry method was developed for the simultaneous quantification in human plasma of all selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (citalopram, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, paroxetine and sertraline) and their main active metabolites (desmethyl-citalopram and norfluoxetine). A stable isotope-labeled internal standard was used for each analyte to compensate for the global method variability, including extraction and ionization variations. After sample (250μl) pre-treatment with acetonitrile (500μl) to precipitate proteins, a fast solid-phase extraction procedure was performed using mixed mode Oasis MCX 96-well plate. Chromatographic separation was achieved in less than 9.0min on a XBridge C18 column (2.1×100mm; 3.5μm) using a gradient of ammonium acetate (pH 8.1; 50mM) and acetonitrile as mobile phase at a flow rate of 0.3ml/min. The method was fully validated according to Société Française des Sciences et Techniques Pharmaceutiques protocols and the latest Food and Drug Administration guidelines. Six point calibration curves were used to cover a large concentration range of 1-500ng/ml for citalopram, desmethyl-citalopram, paroxetine and sertraline, 1-1000ng/ml for fluoxetine and fluvoxamine, and 2-1000ng/ml for norfluoxetine. Good quantitative performances were achieved in terms of trueness (84.2-109.6%), repeatability (0.9-14.6%) and intermediate precision (1.8-18.0%) in the entire assay range including the lower limit of quantification. Internal standard-normalized matrix effects were lower than 13%. The accuracy profiles (total error) were mainly included in the acceptance limits of ±30% for biological samples. The method was successfully applied for routine therapeutic drug monitoring of more than 1600 patient plasma samples over 9 months. The β-expectation tolerance intervals determined during the validation phase were coherent with the results of quality control samples analyzed during routine use. This method is therefore precise and suitable both for therapeutic drug monitoring and pharmacokinetic studies in most clinical laboratories.

Semiclassical back reaction in the formation of a straight cosmic string

We derive the back reaction on the gravitational field of a straight cosmic string during its formation due to the gravitational coupling of the string to quantum matter fields. A very simple model of string formation is considered. The gravitational field of the string is computed in the linear approximation. The vacuum expectation value of the stress tensor of a massless scalar quantum field coupled to the string gravitational field is computed to one loop order. Finally, the back-reaction effect is obtained by solving perturbatively the semiclassical Einsteins equations.

Stochastic semiclassical fluctuations in Minkowski spacetime

The semiclassical Einstein-Langevin equations which describe the dynamics of stochastic perturbations of the metric induced by quantum stress-energy fluctuations of matter fields in a given state are considered on the background of the ground state of semiclassical gravity, namely, Minkowski spacetime and a scalar field in its vacuum state. The relevant equations are explicitly derived for massless and massive fields arbitrarily coupled to the curvature. In doing so, some semiclassical results, such as the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor to linear order in the metric perturbations and particle creation effects, are obtained. We then solve the equations and compute the two-point correlation functions for the linearized Einstein tensor and for the metric perturbations. In the conformal field case, explicit results are obtained. These results hint that gravitational fluctuations in stochastic semiclassical gravity have a non-perturbative behavior in some characteristic correlation lengths.

Massless minimally coupled fields in de Sitter space: O(4)-symmetric states versus de Sitter invariant vacuum

The issue of de Sitter invariance for a massless minimally coupled scalar field is examined. Formally, it is possible to construct a de Sitterinvariant state for this case provided that the zero mode of the field is quantized properly. Here we take the point of view that this state is physically acceptable, in the sense that physical observables can be computed and have a reasonable interpretation. In particular, we use this vacuum to derive a new result: that the squared difference between the field at two points along a geodesic observers spacetime path grows linearly with the observers proper time for a quantum state that does not break de Sitter invariance. Also, we use the Hadamard formalism to compute the renormalized expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor, both in the O(4)-invariant states introduced by Allen and Follaci, and in the de Sitterinvariant vacuum. We find that the vacuum energy density in the O(4)-invariant case is larger than in the de Sitterinvariant case.

Induced quantum metric fluctuations and the validity of semiclassical gravity

We propose a criterion for the validity of semiclassical gravity (SCG) which is based on the stability of the solutions of SCG with respect to quantum metric fluctuations. We pay special attention to the two-point quantum correlation functions for the metric perturbations, which contain both intrinsic and induced fluctuations. These fluctuations can be described by the Einstein-Langevin equation obtained in the framework of stochastic gravity. Specifically, the Einstein-Langevin equation yields stochastic correlation functions for the metric perturbations which agree, to leading order in the large N limit, with the quantum correlation functions of the theory of gravity interacting with N matter fields. The homogeneous solutions of the Einstein-Langevin equation are equivalent to the solutions of the perturbed semiclassical equation, which describe the evolution of the expectation value of the quantum metric perturbations. The information on the intrinsic fluctuations, which are connected to the initial fluctuations of the metric perturbations, can also be retrieved entirely from the homogeneous solutions. However, the induced metric fluctuations proportional to the noise kernel can only be obtained from the Einstein-Langevin equation (the inhomogeneous term). These equations exhibit runaway solutions with exponential instabilities. A detailed discussion about different methods to deal with these instabilities is given. We illustrate our criterion by showing explicitly that flat space is stable and a description based on SCG is a valid approximation in that case.

Scattering of quantum particles by gravitational plane waves

We consider the coupling of quantum massless and massive scalar particles with exact gravitational plane waves. The cross section for scattering of the quantum particles by the waves is shown to coincide with the classical cross section for scattering of geodesics. The expectation value of the scalar field stress tensor between scattering states diverges at the points where classical test particles focus after colliding with the wave. This indicates that back-reaction effects cannot be ignored for plane waves propagating in the presence of quantum particles and that classical singularities are likely to develop.

Semiclassical equations for weakly inhomogeneous cosmologies

The in-in effective action formalism is used to derive the semiclassical correction to Einsteins equations due to a massless scalar quantum field conformally coupled to small gravitational perturbations in spatially flat cosmological models. The vacuum expectation value of the stress tensor of the quantum field is directly derived from the renormalized in-in effective action. The usual in-out effective action is also discussed and it is used to compute the probability of particle creation. As one application, the stress tensor of a scalar field around a static cosmic string is derived and the back-reaction effect on the gravitational field of the string is discussed.

Patient, primary care physician and specialist expectations of primary care physician involvement in cancer care.

BACKGROUND: In Canada, many health authorities recommend that primary care physicians (PCP) stay involved throughout their patients' cancer journey to increase continuity of care. Few studies have focused on patient and physician expectations regarding PCP involvement in cancer care. OBJECTIVE: To compare lung cancer patient, PCP and specialist expectations regarding PCP involvement in coordination of care, emotional support, information transmission and symptom relief at the different phases of cancer. DESIGN: Canadian survey of lung cancer patients, PCPs and cancer specialists PARTICIPANTS: A total of 395 patients completed questionnaires on their expectations regarding their PCP participation in several aspects of care, at different phases of their cancer. Also, 45 specialists and 232 community-based PCP involved in these patients' care responded to a mail survey on the same aspects of cancer care. RESULTS: Most specialists did not expect participation of the PCP in coordination of care in the diagnosis and treatment phases (65% and 78% respectively), in contrast with patients (83% and 85%) and PCPs (80% and 59%) (p < 0.0001). At these same phases, the best agreement among the 3 groups was around PCP role in emotional support: 84% and more of all groups had this expectation. PCP participation in symptom relief was another shared expectation, but more unanimously at the treatment phase (p = 0.85). In the advanced phase, most specialists expect a major role of PCP in all aspects of care (from 81% to 97%). Patients and PCP agree with them mainly for emotional support and information transmission. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer patient, PCP and specialist expectations regarding PCP role differ with the phase of cancer and the specific aspect of cancer care. There is a need to reach a better agreement among them and to better define PCP role, in order to achieve more collaborative and integrated cancer care.

Buy-and-Hold Strategies and Comonotonic Approximations

[cat] En aquest article estudiem estratègies “comprar i mantenir” per a problemes d’optimitzar la riquesa final en un context multi-període. Com que la riquesa final és una suma de variables aleatòries dependents, on cadascuna d’aquestes correspon a una quantitat de capital que s’ha invertit en un actiu particular en una data determinada, en primer lloc considerem aproximacions que redueixen l’aleatorietat multivariant al cas univariant. A continuació, aquestes aproximacions es fan servir per determinar les estratègies “comprar i mantenir” que optimitzen, per a un nivell de probabilitat donat, el VaR i el CLTE de la funció de distribució de la riquesa final. Aquest article complementa el treball de Dhaene et al. (2005), on es van considerar estratègies de reequilibri constant.

Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under diferent hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.

The rewards of cooperation: The effects of membership in European regulatory networks

Networks famously epitomize the shift from 'government' to 'governance' as governing structures for exercising control and coordination besides hierarchies and markets. Their distinctive features are their horizontality, the interdependence among member actors and an interactive decision-making style. Networks are expected to increase the problem-solving capacity of political systems in a context of growing social complexity, where political authority is increasingly fragmented across territorial and functional levels. However, very little attention has been given so far to another crucial implication of network governance - that is, the effects of networks on their members. To explore this important question, this article examines the effects of membership in European regulatory networks on two crucial attributes of member agencies, which are in charge of regulating finance, energy, telecommunications and competition: organisational growth and their regulatory powers. Panel analysis applied to data on 118 agencies during a ten-year period and semi-structured interviews provide mixed support regarding the expectation of organisational growth while strongly confirming the positive effect of networks on the increase of the regulatory powers attributed to member agencies.

The genetic structure of metapopulations and conservation biology.

A range of models describing metapopulations is surveyed and their implications for conservation biology are described. An overview of the use of both population genetic elements and demographic theory in metapopulation models is given. It would appear that most of the current models suffer from either the use of over-simplified demography or the avoidance of selectively important genetic factors. The scale for which predictions are made by the various models is often obscure. A conceptual framework for describing metapopulations by utilising the concept of fitness of local populations is provided and some examples are given. The expectation that any general theory, such as that of metapopulations, can make useful predictions for particular problems of conservation is examined and compared with the prevailing 'state of the art' recommendations.

Functional responses and heterogeneities: an experimental test with cladocerans

The functional response of predators is usually modelled as a function of absolute prey density. Arditi and Ginzburg have suggested that it should often depend instead on the prey available per capita of predators, i.e. on the prey/predator ratio. Theory suggests that these two forms of dependence are related to the degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Experiments using four filter-feeding cladoceran species were designed to test this hypothesis and to investigate the relation between individual behaviour and population dynamics. The patterns of population abundance that the cladocerans reached at equilibrium match the expectation that species with homogeneous spatial behaviour follow prey-dependent dynamics while those with heterogeneous behaviour follow ratio-dependent dynamics.

La biografia catalana contemporània (notes sense ànim d'exhaustivitat)

Notes and comments about the importance of the historical biography in contemporary Catalonia, emphasizing the overcoming of the expectation and of the criticism of the historiography influenced by Marxism.