476 resultados para Estimateur de Bayes


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Background: Allergy is a form of hypersensitivity to normally innocuous substances, such as dust, pollen, foods or drugs. Allergens are small antigens that commonly provoke an IgE antibody response. There are two types of bioinformatics-based allergen prediction. The first approach follows FAO/WHO Codex alimentarius guidelines and searches for sequence similarity. The second approach is based on identifying conserved allergenicity-related linear motifs. Both approaches assume that allergenicity is a linearly coded property. In the present study, we applied ACC pre-processing to sets of known allergens, developing alignment-independent models for allergen recognition based on the main chemical properties of amino acid sequences.Results: A set of 684 food, 1,156 inhalant and 555 toxin allergens was collected from several databases. A set of non-allergens from the same species were selected to mirror the allergen set. The amino acids in the protein sequences were described by three z-descriptors (z1, z2 and z3) and by auto- and cross-covariance (ACC) transformation were converted into uniform vectors. Each protein was presented as a vector of 45 variables. Five machine learning methods for classification were applied in the study to derive models for allergen prediction. The methods were: discriminant analysis by partial least squares (DA-PLS), logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), naïve Bayes (NB) and k nearest neighbours (kNN). The best performing model was derived by kNN at k = 3. It was optimized, cross-validated and implemented in a server named AllerTOP, freely accessible at http://www.pharmfac.net/allertop. AllerTOP also predicts the most probable route of exposure. In comparison to other servers for allergen prediction, AllerTOP outperforms them with 94% sensitivity.Conclusions: AllerTOP is the first alignment-free server for in silico prediction of allergens based on the main physicochemical properties of proteins. Significantly, as well allergenicity AllerTOP is able to predict the route of allergen exposure: food, inhalant or toxin. © 2013 Dimitrov et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

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The need to provide computers with the ability to distinguish the affective state of their users is a major requirement for the practical implementation of affective computing concepts. This dissertation proposes the application of signal processing methods on physiological signals to extract from them features that can be processed by learning pattern recognition systems to provide cues about a person's affective state. In particular, combining physiological information sensed from a user's left hand in a non-invasive way with the pupil diameter information from an eye-tracking system may provide a computer with an awareness of its user's affective responses in the course of human-computer interactions. In this study an integrated hardware-software setup was developed to achieve automatic assessment of the affective status of a computer user. A computer-based "Paced Stroop Test" was designed as a stimulus to elicit emotional stress in the subject during the experiment. Four signals: the Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), the Blood Volume Pulse (BVP), the Skin Temperature (ST) and the Pupil Diameter (PD), were monitored and analyzed to differentiate affective states in the user. Several signal processing techniques were applied on the collected signals to extract their most relevant features. These features were analyzed with learning classification systems, to accomplish the affective state identification. Three learning algorithms: Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree and Support Vector Machine were applied to this identification process and their levels of classification accuracy were compared. The results achieved indicate that the physiological signals monitored do, in fact, have a strong correlation with the changes in the emotional states of the experimental subjects. These results also revealed that the inclusion of pupil diameter information significantly improved the performance of the emotion recognition system. ^

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In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

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In this study we have identified key genes that are critical in development of astrocytic tumors. Meta-analysis of microarray studies which compared normal tissue to astrocytoma revealed a set of 646 differentially expressed genes in the majority of astrocytoma. Reverse engineering of these 646 genes using Bayesian network analysis produced a gene network for each grade of astrocytoma (Grade I–IV), and ‘key genes’ within each grade were identified. Genes found to be most influential to development of the highest grade of astrocytoma, Glioblastoma multiforme were: COL4A1, EGFR, BTF3, MPP2, RAB31, CDK4, CD99, ANXA2, TOP2A, and SERBP1. All of these genes were up-regulated, except MPP2 (down regulated). These 10 genes were able to predict tumor status with 96–100% confidence when using logistic regression, cross validation, and the support vector machine analysis. Markov genes interact with NFkβ, ERK, MAPK, VEGF, growth hormone and collagen to produce a network whose top biological functions are cancer, neurological disease, and cellular movement. Three of the 10 genes - EGFR, COL4A1, and CDK4, in particular, seemed to be potential ‘hubs of activity’. Modified expression of these 10 Markov Blanket genes increases lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to the normal population. The glioblastoma risk estimates were dramatically increased with joint effects of 4 or more than 4 Markov Blanket genes. Joint interaction effects of 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 Markov Blanket genes produced 9, 13, 20.9, 26.7, 52.8, 53.2, 78.1 or 85.9%, respectively, increase in lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to normal population. In summary, it appears that modified expression of several ‘key genes’ may be required for the development of glioblastoma. Further studies are needed to validate these ‘key genes’ as useful tools for early detection and novel therapeutic options for these tumors.

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Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb’s theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb’s view that neuronal assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in 10 the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition

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Software bug analysis is one of the most important activities in Software Quality. The rapid and correct implementation of the necessary repair influence both developers, who must leave the fully functioning software, and users, who need to perform their daily tasks. In this context, if there is an incorrect classification of bugs, there may be unwanted situations. One of the main factors to be assigned bugs in the act of its initial report is severity, which lives up to the urgency of correcting that problem. In this scenario, we identified in datasets with data extracted from five open source systems (Apache, Eclipse, Kernel, Mozilla and Open Office), that there is an irregular distribution of bugs with respect to existing severities, which is an early sign of misclassification. In the dataset analyzed, exists a rate of about 85% bugs being ranked with normal severity. Therefore, this classification rate can have a negative influence on software development context, where the misclassified bug can be allocated to a developer with little experience to solve it and thus the correction of the same may take longer, or even generate a incorrect implementation. Several studies in the literature have disregarded the normal bugs, working only with the portion of bugs considered severe or not severe initially. This work aimed to investigate this portion of the data, with the purpose of identifying whether the normal severity reflects the real impact and urgency, to investigate if there are bugs (initially classified as normal) that could be classified with other severity, and to assess if there are impacts for developers in this context. For this, an automatic classifier was developed, which was based on three algorithms (Näive Bayes, Max Ent and Winnow) to assess if normal severity is correct for the bugs categorized initially with this severity. The algorithms presented accuracy of about 80%, and showed that between 21% and 36% of the bugs should have been classified differently (depending on the algorithm), which represents somewhere between 70,000 and 130,000 bugs of the dataset.

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Acknowledgements We thank Brian Roberts and Mike Harris for responding to our questions regarding their paper; Zoltan Dienes for advice on Bayes factors; Denise Fischer, Melanie Römer, Ioana Stanciu, Aleksandra Romanczuk, Stefano Uccelli, Nuria Martos Sánchez, and Rosa María Beño Ruiz de la Sierra for help collecting data; Eva Viviani for managing data collection in Parma. We thank Maurizio Gentilucci for letting us use his lab, and the Centro Intradipartimentale Mente e Cervello (CIMeC), University of Trento, and especially Francesco Pavani for lending us his motion tracking equipment. We thank Rachel Foster for proofreading. KKK was supported by a Ph.D. scholarship as part of a grant to VHF within the International Graduate Research Training Group on Cross-Modal Interaction in Natural and Artificial Cognitive Systems (CINACS; DFG IKG-1247) and TS by a grant (DFG – SCHE 735/3-1); both from the German Research Council.

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Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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A certain type of bacterial inclusion, known as a bacterial microcompartment, was recently identified and imaged through cryo-electron tomography. A reconstructed 3D object from single-axis limited angle tilt-series cryo-electron tomography contains missing regions and this problem is known as the missing wedge problem. Due to missing regions on the reconstructed images, analyzing their 3D structures is a challenging problem. The existing methods overcome this problem by aligning and averaging several similar shaped objects. These schemes work well if the objects are symmetric and several objects with almost similar shapes and sizes are available. Since the bacterial inclusions studied here are not symmetric, are deformed, and show a wide range of shapes and sizes, the existing approaches are not appropriate. This research develops new statistical methods for analyzing geometric properties, such as volume, symmetry, aspect ratio, polyhedral structures etc., of these bacterial inclusions in presence of missing data. These methods work with deformed and non-symmetric varied shaped objects and do not necessitate multiple objects for handling the missing wedge problem. The developed methods and contributions include: (a) an improved method for manual image segmentation, (b) a new approach to 'complete' the segmented and reconstructed incomplete 3D images, (c) a polyhedral structural distance model to predict the polyhedral shapes of these microstructures, (d) a new shape descriptor for polyhedral shapes, named as polyhedron profile statistic, and (e) the Bayes classifier, linear discriminant analysis and support vector machine based classifiers for supervised incomplete polyhedral shape classification. Finally, the predicted 3D shapes for these bacterial microstructures belong to the Johnson solids family, and these shapes along with their other geometric properties are important for better understanding of their chemical and biological characteristics.

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Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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Data mining can be defined as the extraction of implicit, previously un-known, and potentially useful information from data. Numerous re-searchers have been developing security technology and exploring new methods to detect cyber-attacks with the DARPA 1998 dataset for Intrusion Detection and the modified versions of this dataset KDDCup99 and NSL-KDD, but until now no one have examined the performance of the Top 10 data mining algorithms selected by experts in data mining. The compared classification learning algorithms in this thesis are: C4.5, CART, k-NN and Naïve Bayes. The performance of these algorithms are compared with accuracy, error rate and average cost on modified versions of NSL-KDD train and test dataset where the instances are classified into normal and four cyber-attack categories: DoS, Probing, R2L and U2R. Additionally the most important features to detect cyber-attacks in all categories and in each category are evaluated with Weka’s Attribute Evaluator and ranked according to Information Gain. The results show that the classification algorithm with best performance on the dataset is the k-NN algorithm. The most important features to detect cyber-attacks are basic features such as the number of seconds of a network connection, the protocol used for the connection, the network service used, normal or error status of the connection and the number of data bytes sent. The most important features to detect DoS, Probing and R2L attacks are basic features and the least important features are content features. Unlike U2R attacks, where the content features are the most important features to detect attacks.