On-line prediction of cheese making using backscatter of near infrared indices light

The potential of a fibre optic sensor, detecting light backscatter in a cheese vat during coagulation and syneresis, to predict curd moisture, fat loses and curd yield was examined. Temperature, cutting time and calcium levels were varied to assess the strength of the predictions over a range of processing conditions. Equations were developed using a combination of independent variables, milk compositional and light backscatter parameters. Fat losses, curd yield and curd moisture content were predicted with a standard error of prediction (SEP) of +/- 2.65 g 100 g(-1) (R-2 = 0.93), +/- 0.95% (R-2 = 0.90) and +/- 1.43% (R-2 = 0.94), respectively. These results were used to develop a model for predicting curd moisture as a function of time during syneresis (SEP = +/- 1.72%; R-2 = 0.95). By monitoring coagulation and syneresis, this sensor technology could be employed to control curd moisture content, thereby improving process control during cheese manufacture. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

Influence of curd cutting programme and stirring speed on the prediction of syneresis indices in cheese-making using NIR light backscatter

An NIR reflectance sensor, with a large field of view and a fibre-optic connection to a spectrometer for measuring light backscatter at 980 nm, was used to monitor the syneresis process online during cheese-making with the goal of predicting syneresis indices (curd moisture content, yield of whey and fat losses to whey) over a range of curd cutting programmes and stirring speeds. A series of trials were carried out in an 11 L cheese vat using recombined whole milk. A factorial experimental design consisting of three curd stirring speeds and three cutting programmes, was undertaken. Milk was coagulated under constant conditions and the casein gel was cut when the elastic modulus reached 35 Pa. Among the syneresis indices investigated, the most accurate and most parsimonious multivariate model developed was for predicting yield of whey involving three terms, namely light backscatter, milk fat content and cutting intensity (R2 = 0.83, SEy = 6.13 g/100 g), while the best simple model also predicted this syneresis index using the light backscatter alone (R2 = 0.80, SEy = 6.53 g/100 g). In this model the main predictor was the light backscatter response from the NIR light back scatter sensor. The sensor also predicted curd moisture with a similar accuracy.

Time of emergence of climate signals

The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Here we present a methodology for estimating ToE for individual climate models, and use it to make maps of ToE for surface air temperature (SAT) based on the CMIP3 global climate models. Consistent with previous studies we show that the median ToE occurs several decades sooner in low latitudes, particularly in boreal summer, than in mid-latitudes. We also show that the median ToE in the Arctic occurs sooner in boreal winter than in boreal summer. A key new aspect of our study is that we quantify the uncertainty in ToE that arises not only from inter-model differences in the magnitude of the climate change signal, but also from large differences in the simulation of natural climate variability. The uncertainty in ToE is at least 30 years in the regions examined, and as much as 60 years in some regions. Alternative emissions scenarios lead to changes in both the median ToE (by a decade or more) and its uncertainty. The SRES B1 scenario is associated with a very large uncertainty in ToE in some regions. Our findings have important implications for climate modelling and climate policy which we discuss.

Antioxidant enzymes, inflammatory indices and lifestyle factors in older men: a cohort analysis

We examined the relationship between blood antioxidant enzyme activities, indices of inflammatory status and a number of lifestyle factors in the Caerphilly prospective cohort study of ischaemic heart disease. The study began in 1979 and is based on a representative male population sample. Initially 2512 men were seen in phase I, and followed-up every 5 years in phases II and III; they have recently been seen in phase IV. Data on social class, smoking habit, alcohol consumption were obtained by questionnaire, and body mass index was measured. Antioxidant enzyme activities and indices of inflammatory status were estimated by standard techniques. Significant associations were observed for: age with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001); smoking habit with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001) and with glutathione peroxidose (GPX) (p<0.0001); social class with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin both protein (p<0.001) and oxidase (p<0.01) and with GPX (p<0.0001); body mass index with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin protein (p<0.001). There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and any of the blood enzymes measured. Factor analysis produced a three-factor model (explaining 65.9% of the variation in the data set) which appeared to indicate close inter-relationships among antioxidants.

Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

The emergence and use of diagramming in system dynamics: a critical account

The paper reviews the leading diagramming methods employed in system dynamics to communicate the contents of models. The main ideas and historical development of the field are first outlined. Two diagramming methods—causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and stock/flow diagrams (SFDs)—are then described and their advantages and limitations discussed. A set of broad research directions is then outlined. These concern: the abilities of different diagrams to communicate different ideas, the role that diagrams have in group model building, and the question of whether diagrams can be an adequate substitute for simulation modelling. The paper closes by suggesting that although diagrams alone are insufficient, they have many benefits. However, since these benefits have emerged only as ‘craft wisdom’, a more rigorous programme of research into the diagrams' respective attributes is called for.

Climate change and the emergence of new organizational landscapes

There is general agreement across the world that human-made climate change is a serious global problem,although there are still some sceptics who challenge this view. Research in organization studies on the topic is relatively new. Much of this research, however, is instrumental and managerialist in its focus on ‘win-win’ opportunities for business or its treatment of climate change as just another corporate social responsibility (CSR) exercise. In this paper, we suggest that climate change is not just an environmental problem requiring technical and managerial solutions; it is a political issue where a variety of organizations – state agencies, firms, industry associations, NGOs and multilateral organizations – engage in contestation as well as collaboration over the issue. We discuss the strategic, institutional and political economy dimensions of climate change and develop a socioeconomic regimes approach as a synthesis of these different theoretical perspectives. Given the urgency of the problem and the need for a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy, there is a pressing need for organization scholars to develop a better understanding of apathy and inertia in the face of the current crisis and to identify paths toward transformative change. The seven papers in this special issue address these areas of research and examine strategies, discourses, identities and practices in relation to climate change at multiple levels.

Emergence of fluoroquinolone resistance in the native Campylobacter coli population of pigs exposed to enrofloxacin

Objective: The effect of a single 5 day enrofloxacin treatment on the native Campylobacter coli population in conventionally weaned 5-week-old pigs was investigated. Materials: Twelve pigs were split into two groups of six: one group was treated with a therapeutic dose (15 mg/pig/day) of enrofloxacin and the other remained untreated to act as the control. Campylobacter coli were isolated from faecal samples and tested for ciprofloxacin resistance by measuring MIC values. Mutations in the quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) of the gyrA gene of resistant isolates were identified by sequencing and denaturing HPLC. Levels of enrofloxacin and its primary metabolite ciprofloxacin in the pig faeces were also measured by HPLC. Results: No quinolone-resistant C. coli (n = 867) were detected in any of the pigs prior to treatment, indicating <0.1% resistance in the group. Resistant C. coli were isolated from pigs for up to 35 days after treatment with a therapeutic dose. These resistant C. coli had MIC values of 128 mg/L and 8-16 mg/L for nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin, respectively, and the same single point mutation causing a Thr-86 to Ile substitution in the QRDR was identified in each. The concentration of enrofloxacin in the pig faeces was 2-4 mug/g faeces for the duration of the 5 day therapeutic treatment and was detected up to 10 days post-treatment. Ciprofloxacin was also measured and peaked at 0.6 mug/g faeces in the treated group. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that a single course of enrofloxacin treatment contributes directly to the emergence and persistence of fluoroquinolone resistance in C. coli.

Effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of antimicrobial resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig

Aim: To assess the effect of the growth promoter avilamycin on emergence and persistence of resistance in enteric bacteria in the pig. Methods and Results: Pigs ( treated with avilamycin for 3 months and controls) were challenged with multiresistant Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 and faecal counts were performed for enterococci, Escherichia coli, S. Typhimurium and Campylobacter ( before, during and 5 weeks post-treatment). Representative isolates were tested for antibiotic resistance and for the presence of resistance genes. Avilamycin-resistant Enterococci faecalis (speciated by PCR) were isolated from the treated pigs and continued to be detected for the first week after treatment had ceased. The avilamycin- resistance gene was characterized by PCR as the emtA gene and speciation by PCR. MIC profiling confirmed that more than one strain of Ent. faecalis carried this gene. There was no evidence of increased antimicrobial resistance in the E. coli, Salmonella and Campylobacter populations, although there was a higher incidence of tetB positive E. coli in the treated pigs than the controls. Conclusion: Although avilamycin selects for resistance in the native enterococci population of the pig, no resistant isolates were detected beyond 1 week post-treatment. This suggests that resistant isolates were unable to persist once selective pressure was removed and were out-competed by the sensitive microflora. Significance and Impact of the Study: Our data suggest the risk of resistant isolates becoming carcass contaminants and infecting humans could be minimized by introducing a withdrawal period after using avilamycin and prior to slaughter.

Military competition and the emergence of nationalism: putting the logic of political survival into historical context

This essay aims to make a contribution to the conversation between IR and nationalism literatures by considering a particular question: What is the relationship between interstate military competition and the emergence of nationalism as a potent force in world politics? The conventional wisdom among international security scholars, especially neorealists, holds that nationalism can be more or less treated like a “technology” that allowed states to extract significant resources as well as manpower from their respective populations. This paper underlines some of the problems involved with this perspective and pushes forward an interpretation that is based on the logic of political survival. I argue that nationalism’s emergence as a powerful force in world politics followed from the “mutation” and absorption of the universalistic/cosmopolitan republican ideas that gained temporary primacy in Europe during the eighteenth century into particularistic nationalist ideologies. This transformation, in turn, can be best explained by the French Revolution’s dramatic impacts on rulers’ political survival calculi vis-à-vis both interstate and domestic political challenges. The analysis offered in this essay contributes to our understanding of the relationship between IR and nationalism while also highlighting the potential value of the political survival framework for exploring macrohistorical puzzles.

Emergence of a small-world functional network in cultured neurons

The functional networks of cultured neurons exhibit complex network properties similar to those found in vivo. Starting from random seeding, cultures undergo significant reorganization during the initial period in vitro, yet despite providing an ideal platform for observing developmental changes in neuronal connectivity, little is known about how a complex functional network evolves from isolated neurons. In the present study, evolution of functional connectivity was estimated from correlations of spontaneous activity. Network properties were quantified using complex measures from graph theory and used to compare cultures at different stages of development during the first 5 weeks in vitro. Networks obtained from young cultures (14 days in vitro) exhibited a random topology, which evolved to a small-world topology during maturation. The topology change was accompanied by an increased presence of highly connected areas (hubs) and network efficiency increased with age. The small-world topology balances integration of network areas with segregation of specialized processing units. The emergence of such network structure in cultured neurons, despite a lack of external input, points to complex intrinsic biological mechanisms. Moreover, the functional network of cultures at mature ages is efficient and highly suited to complex processing tasks.

A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.

Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

Spatial interaction among nontoxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton: emergence in space and time

In homogeneous environments, by overturning the possibility of competitive exclusion among phytoplankton species, and by regulating the dynamics of overall plankton population, toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) potentially help in maintaining plankton diversity—a result shown recently. Here, I explore the competitive effects of TPP on phytoplankton and zooplankton species undergoing spatial movements in the subsurface water. The spatial interactions among the species are represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. Suitable parametric conditions under which Turing patterns may or may not evolve are investigated. Spatiotemporal distributions of species biomass are simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural planktonic systems. The study demonstrates that spatial movements of planktonic systems in the presence of TPP generate and maintain inhomogeneous biomass distribution of competing phytoplankton, as well as grazer zooplankton, thereby ensuring the persistence of multiple species in space and time. The overall results may potentially explain the sustainability of biodiversity and the spatiotemporal emergence of phytoplankton and zooplankton species under the influence of TPP combined with their physical movement in the subsurface water.