Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Interior Boundaries for Degenerate Elliptic Equations of Second Order Some Theory and Numerical Observations

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 35J70; Secondary 35J15, 35D05.

Generalized Priority Systems. Analytical Results and Numerical Algorithms

A class of priority systems with non-zero switching times, referred as generalized priority systems, is considered. Analytical results regarding the distribution of busy periods, queue lengths and various auxiliary characteristics are presented. These results can be viewed as generalizations of the Kendall functional equation and the Pollaczek-Khintchin transform equation, respectively. Numerical algorithms for systems’ busy periods and traffic coefficients are developed. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): 60K25.

Low Volatility Options and Numerical Diffusion of Finite Difference Schemes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 65M06, 65M12.

Correlation between p-GaN growth environment with electrical and optical properties of blue LEDs

Two blue (450 nm) light–emitting diodes (LED), which only differ in top p-GaN layer growth conditions, were comparatively investigated. I-V, C-V, TLM, Electroluminescence (EL) and Photoluminescence (PL) techniques were applied to clarify a correlation between MOCVD carrier gas and internal properties. The A-structure grown in the pure N2 environment demonstrated better parameters than the B-structure grown in the N2/H2 (1:1) gas mixture. The mixed growth atmosphere leaded to an increase of sheet resistances of p-GaN layer. EL and PL measurements confirmed the advantage of the pure N2 utilization, and C(VR) measurement pointed the increase of static charge concentration near the p-GaN interface in the B structure.

Secure information flow via stripping and fast simulation

Type systems for secure information flow aim to prevent a program from leaking information from H (high) to L (low) variables. Traditionally, bisimulation has been the prevalent technique for proving the soundness of such systems. This work introduces a new proof technique based on stripping and fast simulation, and shows that it can be applied in a number of cases where bisimulation fails. We present a progressive development of this technique over a representative sample of languages including a simple imperative language (core theory), a multiprocessing nondeterministic language, a probabilistic language, and a language with cryptographic primitives. In the core theory we illustrate the key concepts of this technique in a basic setting. A fast low simulation in the context of transition systems is a binary relation where simulating states can match the moves of simulated states while maintaining the equivalence of low variables; stripping is a function that removes high commands from programs. We show that we can prove secure information flow by arguing that the stripping relation is a fast low simulation. We then extend the core theory to an abstract distributed language under a nondeterministic scheduler. Next, we extend to a probabilistic language with a random assignment command; we generalize fast simulation to the setting of discrete time Markov Chains, and prove approximate probabilistic noninterference. Finally, we introduce cryptographic primitives into the probabilistic language and prove computational noninterference, provided that the underling encryption scheme is secure.

Evaluation of wind-induced internal pressure in low-rise buildings: A multi scale experimental and numerical approach

Hurricane is one of the most destructive and costly natural hazard to the built environment and its impact on low-rise buildings, particularity, is beyond acceptable. The major objective of this research was to perform a parametric evaluation of internal pressure (IP) for wind-resistant design of low-rise buildings and wind-driven natural ventilation applications. For this purpose, a multi-scale experimental, i.e. full-scale at Wall of Wind (WoW) and small-scale at Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel (BLWT), and a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach was adopted. This provided new capability to assess wind pressures realistically on internal volumes ranging from small spaces formed between roof tiles and its deck to attic to room partitions. Effects of sudden breaching, existing dominant openings on building envelopes as well as compartmentalization of building interior on the IP were systematically investigated. Results of this research indicated: (i) for sudden breaching of dominant openings, the transient overshooting response was lower than the subsequent steady state peak IP and internal volume correction for low-wind-speed testing facilities was necessary. For example a building without volume correction experienced a response four times faster and exhibited 30–40% lower mean and peak IP; (ii) for existing openings, vent openings uniformly distributed along the roof alleviated, whereas one sided openings aggravated the IP; (iii) larger dominant openings exhibited a higher IP on the building envelope, and an off-center opening on the wall exhibited (30–40%) higher IP than center located openings; (iv) compartmentalization amplified the intensity of IP and; (v) significant underneath pressure was measured for field tiles, warranting its consideration during net pressure evaluations. The study aimed at wind driven natural ventilation indicated: (i) the IP due to cross ventilation was 1.5 to 2.5 times higher for Ainlet/Aoutlet>1 compared to cases where Ainlet/Aoutlet<1, this in effect reduced the mixing of air inside the building and hence the ventilation effectiveness; (ii) the presence of multi-room partitioning increased the pressure differential and consequently the air exchange rate. Overall good agreement was found between the observed large-scale, small-scale and CFD based IP responses. Comparisons with ASCE 7-10 consistently demonstrated that the code underestimated peak positive and suction IP.

Assessment of a multiple-span bridge by dynamic testing, in-situ monitoring and numerical modeling

Peer reviewed

Periodic nonlinear Fourier transform for fiber-optic communications, Part I:theory and numerical methods

In this work, we introduce the periodic nonlinear Fourier transform (PNFT) method as an alternative and efficacious tool for compensation of the nonlinear transmission effects in optical fiber links. In the Part I, we introduce the algorithmic platform of the technique, describing in details the direct and inverse PNFT operations, also known as the inverse scattering transform for periodic (in time variable) nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE). We pay a special attention to explaining the potential advantages of the PNFT-based processing over the previously studied nonlinear Fourier transform (NFT) based methods. Further, we elucidate the issue of the numerical PNFT computation: we compare the performance of four known numerical methods applicable for the calculation of nonlinear spectral data (the direct PNFT), in particular, taking the main spectrum (utilized further in Part II for the modulation and transmission) associated with some simple example waveforms as the quality indicator for each method. We show that the Ablowitz-Ladik discretization approach for the direct PNFT provides the best performance in terms of the accuracy and computational time consumption.

The (Un)Folding of Multidomain Proteins Through the Lens of Single-molecule Force-spectroscopy and Computer Simulation

Proteins are specialized molecules that catalyze most of the reactions that can sustain life, and they become functional by folding into a specific 3D structure. Despite their importance, the question, "how do proteins fold?" - first pondered in in the 1930's - is still listed as one of the top unanswered scientific questions as of 2005, according to the journal Science. Answering this question would provide a foundation for understanding protein function and would enable improved drug targeting, efficient biofuel production, and stronger biomaterials. Much of what we currently know about protein folding comes from studies on small, single-domain proteins, which may be quite different from the folding of large, multidomain proteins that predominate the proteomes of all organisms.

In this thesis I will discuss my work to fill this gap in understanding by studying the unfolding and refolding of large, multidomain proteins using the powerful combination of single-molecule force-spectroscopy experiments and molecular dynamic simulations.

The three model proteins studied - Luciferase, Protein S, and Streptavidin - lend insight into the inter-domain dependence for unfolding and the subdomain stabilization of binding ligands, and ultimately provide new insight into atomistic details of the intermediate states along the folding pathway.

Solitons in Exciton-Polariton System: Reduced Modelling, Analysis, and Numerical Studies

In this dissertation, we study the behavior of exciton-polariton quasiparticles in semiconductor microcavities, under the sourceless and lossless conditions.

First, we simplify the original model by removing the photon dispersion term, thus effectively turn the PDEs system to an ODEs system,

and investigate the behavior of the resulting system, including the equilibrium points and the wave functions of the excitons and the photons.

Second, we add the dispersion term for the excitons to the original model and prove that the band of the discontinuous solitons now become dark solitons.

Third, we employ the Strang-splitting method to our sytem of PDEs and prove the first-order and second-order error bounds in the $H^1$ norm and the $L_2$ norm, respectively.

Using this numerical result, we analyze the stability of the steady state bright soliton solution. This solution revolves around the $x$-axis as time progresses

and the perturbed soliton also rotates around the $x$-axis and tracks closely in terms of amplitude but lags behind the exact one. Our numerical result shows orbital

stability but no $L_2$ stability.

Modeling, Analysis and Performance Comparison of Two Direct Sampling DCSK Receivers under Frequency Nonselective Fading Channels

Two direct sampling correlator-type receivers for differential chaos shift keying (DCSK) communication systems under frequency non-selective fading channels are proposed. These receivers operate based on the same hardware platform with different architectures. In the first scheme, namely sum-delay-sum (SDS) receiver, the sum of all samples in a chip period is correlated with its delayed version. The correlation value obtained in each bit period is then compared with a fixed threshold to decide the binary value of recovered bit at the output. On the other hand, the second scheme, namely delay-sum-sum (DSS) receiver, calculates the correlation value of all samples with its delayed version in a chip period. The sum of correlation values in each bit period is then compared with the threshold to recover the data. The conventional DCSK transmitter, frequency non-selective Rayleigh fading channel, and two proposed receivers are mathematically modelled in discrete-time domain. The authors evaluated the bit error rate performance of the receivers by means of both theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The performance comparison shows that the two proposed receivers can perform well under the studied channel, where the performances get better when the number of paths increases and the DSS receiver outperforms the SDS one.

The Transverse Crack Tension test revisited: An experimental and numerical study

Several problems arise when measuring the mode II interlaminar fracture toughness using a Transverse Crack Tension specimen; in particular, the fracture toughness depends on the geometry of the specimen and cannot be considered a material parameter. A preliminary experimental campaign was conducted on TCTs of different sizes but no fracture toughness was measured because the TCTs failed in an unacceptable way, invalidating the tests. A comprehensive numerical and experimental investigation is conducted to identify the main causes of this behaviour and a modification of the geometry of the specimen is proposed. It is believed that the obtained results represent a significant contribution in the understanding of the TCT test as a mode II characterization procedure and, at the same time, provide new guidelines to characterize the mode II crack propagation under tensile loads.