Multi-level modeling of aspects associated with poor mental health in a sample of prehospital emergency professionals.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this paper is to investigate the respective influence of work characteristics, the effort-reward ratio, and overcommitment on the poor mental health of out-of-hospital care providers. METHODS: 333 out-of-hospital care providers answered a questionnaire that included queries on mental health (GHQ-12), demographics, health-related information and work characteristics, questions from the Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire, and items about overcommitment. A two-level multiple regression was performed between mental health (the dependent variable) and the effort-reward ratio, the overcommitment score, weekly number of interventions, percentage of non-prehospital transport of patients out of total missions, gender, and age. Participants were first-level units, and ambulance services were second-level units. We also shadowed ambulance personnel for a total of 416 hr. RESULTS: With cutoff points of 2/3 and 3/4 positive answers on the GHQ-12, the percentages of potential cases with poor mental health were 20% and 15%, respectively. The effort-reward ratio was associated with poor mental health (P < 0.001), irrespective of age or gender. Overcommitment was associated with poor mental health; this association was stronger in women (β = 0.054) than in men (β = 0.020). The percentage of prehospital missions out of total missions was only associated with poor mental health at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS: Emergency medical services should pay attention to the way employees perceive their efforts and the rewarding aspects of their work: an imbalance of those aspects is associated with poor mental health. Low perceived esteem appeared particularly associated with poor mental health. This suggests that supervisors of emergency medical services should enhance the value of their employees' work. Employees with overcommitment should also receive appropriate consideration. Preventive measures should target individual perceptions of effort and reward in order to improve mental health in prehospital care providers.

Groundwater Availability Modeling of the Lower Dakota Aquifer in Northwest Iowa, October 2008

The 2007 Iowa General Assembly, recognizing the increased demand for water to support the growth of industries and municipalities, approved funding for the first year of a multi-year evaluation and modeling of Iowa’s major aquifers by the Iowa Department of Natural Resources. The task of conducting this evaluation and modeling was assigned to the Iowa Geological and Water Survey (IGWS). The first aquifer to be studied was the Lower Dakota aquifer in a sixteen county area of northwest Iowa.

Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions.

Numerical modeling of the effect of variation of boundary conditions on vadose zone hydraulic properties

An accurate estimation of hydraulic fluxes in the vadose zone is essential for the prediction of water, nutrient and contaminant transport in natural systems. The objective of this study was to simulate the effect of variation of boundary conditions on the estimation of hydraulic properties (i.e. water content, effective unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic flux) in a one-dimensional unsaturated flow model domain. Unsaturated one-dimensional vertical water flow was simulated in a pure phase clay loam profile and in clay loam interlayered with silt loam distributed according to the third iteration of the Cantor Bar fractal object Simulations were performed using the numerical model Hydrus 1D. The upper and lower pressure heads were varied around average values of -55 cm for the near-saturation range. This resulted in combinations for the upper and lower constant head boundary conditions, respectively, of -50 and -60 cm, -40 and -70 cm, -30 and -80 cm, -20 and -90 cm, and -10 and -100 cm. For the drier range the average head between the upper and lower boundary conditions was set to -550 cm, resulting in the combinations -500 and -600 cm, -400 and -700 cm, -300 and -800 cm, -200 and -900 cm, and -100 and -1,000 cm, for upper and lower boundary conditions, respectively. There was an increase in water contents, fluxes and hydraulic conductivities with the increase in head difference between boundary conditions. Variation in boundary conditions in the pure phase and interlayered one-dimensional profiles caused significant deviations in fluxes, water contents and hydraulic conductivities compared to the simplest case (a head difference between the upper and lower constant head boundaries of 10 cm in the wetter range and 100 cm in the drier range).

Modeling premartensitic effects in Ni2MnGa: A mean-field and Monte Carlo simulation study

ic first-order transition line ending in a critical point. This critical point is responsible for the existence of large premartensitic fluctuations which manifest as broad peaks in the specific heat, not always associated with a true phase transition. The main conclusion is that premartensitic effects result from the interplay between the softness of the anomalous phonon driving the modulation and the magnetoelastic coupling. In particular, the premartensitic transition occurs when such coupling is strong enough to freeze the involved mode phonon. The implication of the results in relation to the available experimental data is discussed.

Structural changes in latosols of the cerrado region: II - soil compressive behavior and modeling of additional compaction

Currently in Brazil, as in other parts of the world, the concern is great with the increase of degraded agricultural soil, which is mostly related to the occurrence of soil compaction. Although soil texture is recognized as a very important component in the soil compressive behaviors, there are few studies that quantify its influence on the structural changes of Latosols in the Brazilian Cerrado region. This study aimed to evaluate structural changes and the compressive behavior of Latosols in Rio Verde, Goiás, through the modeling of additional soil compaction. The study was carried out using five Latosols with very different textures, under different soil compaction levels. Water retention and soil compression curves, and bearing capacity models were determined from undisturbed samples collected on the B horizons. Results indicated that clayey and very clayey Latosols were more susceptible to compression than medium-textured soils. Soil compression curves at density values associate with edaphic functions were used to determine the beneficial pressure (σ b) , i.e., pressure with optimal water retention, and critical pressure (σcrMAC), i.e., pressure with macroporosity below critical levels. These pressure values were higher than the preconsolidation pressure (σp), and therefore characterized as additional compaction. Based on the compressive behavior of these Latosols, it can be concluded that the combined preconsolidation pressure, beneficial pressure and critical pressure allow a better understanding of compression processes of Latosols.

Modeling changes in organic carbon stocks for distinct soils in southeastern brazil after four eucalyptus rotations using the century model

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays an important role in carbon (C) cycle and soil quality. Considering the complexity of factors that control SOM cycling and the long time it usually takes to observe changes in SOM stocks, modeling constitutes a very important tool to understand SOM cycling in forest soils. The following hypotheses were tested: (i) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks would be higher after several rotations of eucalyptus than in low-productivity pastures; (ii) SOC values simulated by the Century model would describe the data better than the mean of observations. So, the aims of the current study were: (i) to evaluate the SOM dynamics using the Century model to simulate the changes of C stocks for two eucalyptus chronosequences in the Rio Doce Valley, Minas Gerais State, Brazil; and (ii) to compare the C stocks simulated by Century with the C stocks measured in soils of different Orders and regions of the Rio Doce Valley growing eucalyptus. In Belo Oriente (BO), short-rotation eucalyptus plantations had been cultivated for 4.0; 13.0, 22.0, 32.0 and 34.0 years, at a lower elevation and in a warmer climate, while in Virginópolis (VG), these time periods were 8.0, 19.0 and 33.0 years, at a higher elevation and in a milder climate. Soil samples were collected from the 0-20 cm layer to estimate C stocks. Results indicate that the C stocks simulated by the Century model decreased after 37 years of poorly managed pastures in areas previously covered by native forest in the regions of BO and VG. The substitution of poorly managed pastures by eucalyptus in the early 1970´s led to an average increase of C of 0.28 and 0.42 t ha-1 year-1 in BO and VG, respectively. The measured C stocks under eucalyptus in distinct soil Orders and independent regions with variable edapho-climate conditions were not far from the values estimated by the Century model (root mean square error - RMSE = 20.9; model efficiency - EF = 0.29) despite the opposite result obtained with the statistical procedure to test the identity of analytical methods. Only for lower soil C stocks, the model over-estimated the C stock in the 0-20 cm layer. Thus, the Century model is highly promising to detect changes in C stocks in distinct soil orders under eucalyptus, as well as to indicate the impact of harvest residue management on SOM in future rotations.

Determination of hydraulic properties of a tropical soil of Hawaii using column experiments and inverse modeling

A method for determining soil hydraulic properties of a weathered tropical soil (Oxisol) using a medium-sized column with undisturbed soil is presented. The method was used to determine fitting parameters of the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity functions of a soil column in support of a pesticide leaching study. The soil column was extracted from a continuously-used research plot in Central Oahu (Hawaii, USA) and its internal structure was examined by computed tomography. The experiment was based on tension infiltration into the soil column with free outflow at the lower end. Water flow through the soil core was mathematically modeled using a computer code that numerically solves the one-dimensional Richards equation. Measured soil hydraulic parameters were used for direct simulation, and the retention and soil hydraulic parameters were estimated by inverse modeling. The inverse modeling produced very good agreement between model outputs and measured flux and pressure head data for the relatively homogeneous column. The moisture content at a given pressure from the retention curve measured directly in small soil samples was lower than that obtained through parameter optimization based on experiments using a medium-sized undisturbed soil column.

A conspectus on estimating function theory and its applicability to recurrent modeling issues in forest biometry

Summary

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes.

Modeling a processive molecular motor: the conventional kinesin

We present a model that allows for the derivation of the experimentally accesible observables: spatial steps, mean velocity, stall force, useful power, efficiency and randomness, etc. as a function of the [adenosine triphosphate] concentration and an external load F. The model presents a minimum of adjustable parameters and the theoretical predictions compare well with the available experimental results.

Preisach modeling of hysteresis for a pseudoelastic Cu-Zn-Al single crystal

Stress-strain trajectories associated with pseudoelastic behavior of a Cu¿19.4 Zn¿13.1 Al (at.%) single crystal at room temperature have been determined experimentally. For a constant cross-head speed the trajectories and the associated hysteresis behavior are perfectly reproducible; the trajectories exhibit memory properties, dependent only on the values of return points, where transformation direction is reverted. An adapted version of the Preisach model for hysteresis has been implemented to predict the observed trajectories, using a set of experimental first¿order reversal curves as input data. Explicit formulas have been derived giving all trajectories in terms of this data set, with no adjustable parameters. Comparison between experimental and calculated trajectories shows a much better agreement for descending than for ascending paths, an indication of a dissymmetry between the dissipation mechanisms operative in forward and reverse directions of martensitic transformation.