Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

Space-Time Scales of Northward Propagation of Convection during Boreal Summer

This study uses precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of northward propagation of convection over the Indian monsoon region during boreal summer. Propagating modes of convective systems in the intraseasonal time scales such as the Madden-Julian oscillation can interact with the intertropical convergence zone and bring active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis was used to quantify the spatial extent (scale) and center of these propagating convective bands, as well as the time period associated with different spatial scales. Results presented here suggest that during a good monsoon year the spatial scale of this oscillation is about 30 degrees centered around 10 degrees N. During weak monsoon years, the scale of propagation decreases and the center shifts farther south closer to the equator. A strong linear relationship is obtained between the center/scale of convective wave bands and intensity of monsoon precipitation over Indian land on the interannual time scale. Moreover, the spatial scale and its center during the break monsoon were found to be similar to an overall weak monsoon year. Based on this analysis, a new index is proposed to quantify the spatial scales associated with propagating convective bands. This automated wavelet-based technique developed here can be used to study meridional propagation of convection in a large volume of datasets from observations and model simulations. The information so obtained can be related to the interannual and intraseasonal variation of Indian monsoon precipitation.

Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate - Projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM

In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16A degrees N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to `upper tropospheric warming effect' predominates over the `moisture build-up effect' in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change.

A note on new indices for the equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation

It is now well known that there is a strong association of the extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with the El Nio and southern oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), later being an east-west oscillation in convection anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean. So far, the index used for EQUINOO is EQWIN, which is based on the surface zonal wind over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Since the most important attribute of EQUINOO is the oscillation in convection/precipitation, we believe that the indices based on convection or precipitation would be more appropriate. Continuous and reliable data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and satellite derived precipitation are now available from 1979 onwards. Hence, in this paper, we introduce new indices for EQUINOO, based on the difference in the anomaly of OLR/precipitation between eastern and western parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean. We show that the strong association of extremes of the Indian summer monsoon with ENSO and EQUINOO is also seen when the new indices are used to represent EQUINOO.

Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20-60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3-9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.

Genetic studies of human diversity in East Asia

East Asia is one of the most important regions for studying evolution and genetic diversity of human populations. Recognizing the relevance of characterizing the genetic diversity and structure of East Asian populations for understanding their genetic his

Speciation and Phylogeography of Opsariichthys bidens (Pisces: Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae) in China: Analysis of the Cytochrome b Gene of mtDNA from Diverse Populations

Gao-Yan Li, Xu-Zhen Wang, Ya-Hui Zhao, Jie Zhang, Chun-Guang Zhang, and Shun-Ping He (2009) Speciation and phylogeography of Opsariichthys bidens (Pisces: Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae) in China: analysis of the cytochrome b gene of mtDNA from diverse populations. Zoological Studies 48(4): 569-583. The cyprinid fish Opsariichthys bidens Gunther is distributed in all major river systems of continental East Asia, and represents an attractive model for phylogeographic studies among cyprinid species or within a given species. In this study, we investigated the phylogeographic and demographic history of this species, using partial sequences of the cytochrome (cyt) b gene in mitochondrial (mt)DNA. Fish samples were collected from almost all major river systems where O. bidens is distributed in China. Sequence analysis showed remarkably high polymorphism, with 125 haplotypes in the 234 specimens examined, and with 89.8% of haplotypes occurring in only 1 specimen. A neutrality test indicated that some groups were not at mutation-drift equilibrium, suggesting a past population expansion. These results were supported by a mismatch distribution analysis. Based on our analysis, O. bidens consists of 4 groups belonging to 2 clades. The divergence time of the 2 clades was estimated to be 11.06-8.04 my. This value corresponds to the time of the 2nd uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the emergence of the East Asian monsoon, and the Epoch-6 Event. A two species scheme is proposed. http://zoolstud.sinica.edu.tw/Journals/48.4/569.pdf

Heinrich event imprints in the Okinawa Trough: evidence from oxygen isotope and planktonic foraminifera

Planktonic foraminiferal faunas, oxygen isotope and modern analog technique sea surface temperature records were obtained in piston core DGKS9603 (28degrees08.869'N, 127degrees16.238'E, water depth 1100 in) collected from the middle Okinawa Trough. During the last glaciation, four cold events were identified and correlate Heinrich events (HE) H2-5 of the last 45 ka. During the last deglaciation, core DGKS9603 has begun to be influenced by the Kuroshio since about 16 cal ka BP. Three weakenings of this warm current occurred at about 2.8-5.3, 11.4 and 15.5 cal ka BP respectively. Among the three fluctuations, the oldest one is synchronous with HE1 and could be a response to the strong cooling observed in the North Atlantic Ocean. The fluctuation occurring at about 11.4 cal ka ago corresponds to the Younger Dryas within the age error bars. Our observations provide new evidence that the HEs documented from Greenland and the northern North Atlantic had a global climatic impact. Changes in the intensity of the East Asian monsoon could be the main mechanism responsible for the paleoccanographic variations observed in the Okinawa Trough. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The paleoclimatic events and cause in the Okinawa Trough during 50 kaBP

Planktonic foraminiferal delta O-18 record for core DGKS9603 from the Okinawa Trough shows a series of climatic fluctuations and sudden cooling events in short time scale during 50 kaBP, which appear to correlate closely to the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events H1-5 recorded in Chinese loess, the South China Sea, the North Atlantic cores and the Greenland ice cores. Three polarity reversal events, correlating to Gothenburg, Mungo and Laschamp events, approximately correspond to Heinrich events H1, H3 and H5 respectively, which could be a cause of global climate changes. The delta O-18 curve of the Okinawa Trough is well associated with the grain size record of the Lijiayuan loess profile in northwestern China and is somewhat different from the climate fluctuations documented in the Greenland ice cores. These correlation results indicate that regional factors play an important role in controlling the climate changes in the East Asia, and the East Asian Monsoon could be the prominent regional controlling factor.