916 resultados para Dynamic Bayesian Networks


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Synchronized network responses in thalamus depend on phasic inhibition originating in the thalamic reticular nucleus (nRt) and are mediated by the neurotransmitter γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). A suggested role for intra-nRt connectivity in inhibitory phasing remains controversial. Recently, functional GABA type B (GABAB) receptors were demonstrated on nRt cells, and the slow time course of the GABAB synaptic response seems ideally suited to deinactivate low-threshold calcium channels. This promotes burst firing, a characteristic feature of synchronized responses. Here we investigate GABAB-mediated rebound burst firing in thalamic cells. Whole-cell current-clamp recordings were obtained from nRt cells and somatosensory thalamocortical relay cells in rat brain slices. Synthetic GABAB inhibitory postsynaptic potentials, generated by a hybrid computer–neuron synapse (dynamic clamp), triggered rebound low-threshold calcium spikes in both cell types when peak inhibitory postsynaptic potential hyperpolarization was greater than −92 mV. The threshold inhibitory postsynaptic potential conductance for rebound burst generation was comparable in nRt (7 nS) and thalamocortical (5 nS) cells. However, burst onset in nRt (1 s) was considerably delayed compared with thalamocortical (0.6 s) cells. Thus, GABAB inhibitory postsynaptic potentials can elicit low-threshold calcium spikes in both relay and nRt neurons, but the resultant oscillation frequency would be faster for thalamocortical–nRt networks (3 Hz) than for nRt–nRt networks (1–2 Hz). We conclude, therefore, that fast (>2 Hz) GABAB-dependent thalamic oscillations are maintained primarily by reciprocal connections between excitatory and inhibitory cells. These findings further indicate that when oscillatory neural networks contain both recurrent and reciprocal inhibition, then distinct population frequencies may result when one or the other type of inhibition is favored.

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In several biological systems, the electrical coupling of nonoscillating cells generates synchronized membrane potential oscillations. Because the isolated cell is nonoscillating and electrical coupling tends to equalize the membrane potentials of the coupled cells, the mechanism underlying these oscillations is unclear. Here we present a dynamic mechanism by which the electrical coupling of identical nonoscillating cells can generate synchronous membrane potential oscillations. We demonstrate this mechanism by constructing a biologically feasible model of electrically coupled cells, characterized by an excitable membrane and calcium dynamics. We show that strong electrical coupling in this network generates multiple oscillatory states with different spatio-temporal patterns and discuss their possible role in the cooperative computations performed by the system.

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Traditional methods of R&D management are no longer sufficient for embracing innovations and leveraging complex new technologies to fully integrated positions in established systems. This paper presents the view that the technology integration process is a result of fundamental interactions embedded in inter-organisational activities. Emerging industries, high technology companies and knowledge intensive organisations owe a large part of their viability to complex networks of inter-organisational interactions and relationships. R&D organisations are the gatekeepers in the technology integration process with their initial sanction and motivation to develop technologies providing the first point of entry. Networks rely on the activities of stakeholders to provide the foundations of collaborative R&D activities, business-to-business marketing and strategic alliances. Such complex inter-organisational interactions and relationships influence value creation and organisational goals as stakeholders seek to gain investment opportunities. A theoretical model is developed here that contributes to our understanding of technology integration (adoption) as a dynamic process, which is simultaneously structured and enacted through the activities of stakeholders and organisations in complex inter-organisational networks of sanction and integration.

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Time-course experiments with microarrays are often used to study dynamic biological systems and genetic regulatory networks (GRNs) that model how genes influence each other in cell-level development of organisms. The inference for GRNs provides important insights into the fundamental biological processes such as growth and is useful in disease diagnosis and genomic drug design. Due to the experimental design, multilevel data hierarchies are often present in time-course gene expression data. Most existing methods, however, ignore the dependency of the expression measurements over time and the correlation among gene expression profiles. Such independence assumptions violate regulatory interactions and can result in overlooking certain important subject effects and lead to spurious inference for regulatory networks or mechanisms. In this paper, a multilevel mixed-effects model is adopted to incorporate data hierarchies in the analysis of time-course data, where temporal and subject effects are both assumed to be random. The method starts with the clustering of genes by fitting the mixture model within the multilevel random-effects model framework using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. The network of regulatory interactions is then determined by searching for regulatory control elements (activators and inhibitors) shared by the clusters of co-expressed genes, based on a time-lagged correlation coefficients measurement. The method is applied to two real time-course datasets from the budding yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) genome. It is shown that the proposed method provides clusters of cell-cycle regulated genes that are supported by existing gene function annotations, and hence enables inference on regulatory interactions for the genetic network.

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An overview of neural networks, covering multilayer perceptrons, radial basis functions, constructive algorithms, Kohonen and K-means unupervised algorithms, RAMnets, first and second order training methods, and Bayesian regularisation methods.

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This paper reports preliminary progress on a principled approach to modelling nonstationary phenomena using neural networks. We are concerned with both parameter and model order complexity estimation. The basic methodology assumes a Bayesian foundation. However to allow the construction of pragmatic models, successive approximations have to be made to permit computational tractibility. The lowest order corresponds to the (Extended) Kalman filter approach to parameter estimation which has already been applied to neural networks. We illustrate some of the deficiencies of the existing approaches and discuss our preliminary generalisations, by considering the application to nonstationary time series.

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A family of measurements of generalisation is proposed for estimators of continuous distributions. In particular, they apply to neural network learning rules associated with continuous neural networks. The optimal estimators (learning rules) in this sense are Bayesian decision methods with information divergence as loss function. The Bayesian framework guarantees internal coherence of such measurements, while the information geometric loss function guarantees invariance. The theoretical solution for the optimal estimator is derived by a variational method. It is applied to the family of Gaussian distributions and the implications are discussed. This is one in a series of technical reports on this topic; it generalises the results of ¸iteZhu95:prob.discrete to continuous distributions and serve as a concrete example of a larger picture ¸iteZhu95:generalisation.

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In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Using electricity load data and training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise and forgetting factors for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. We also find that a recently-proposed alternative novelty criterion, found to be more robust in stationary environments, does not fare so well in the non-stationary case due to the need for filter adaptability during training.

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Two probabilistic interpretations of the n-tuple recognition method are put forward in order to allow this technique to be analysed with the same Bayesian methods used in connection with other neural network models. Elementary demonstrations are then given of the use of maximum likelihood and maximum entropy methods for tuning the model parameters and assisting their interpretation. One of the models can be used to illustrate the significance of overlapping n-tuple samples with respect to correlations in the patterns.

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In the Bayesian framework, predictions for a regression problem are expressed in terms of a distribution of output values. The mode of this distribution corresponds to the most probable output, while the uncertainty associated with the predictions can conveniently be expressed in terms of error bars. In this paper we consider the evaluation of error bars in the context of the class of generalized linear regression models. We provide insights into the dependence of the error bars on the location of the data points and we derive an upper bound on the true error bars in terms of the contributions from individual data points which are themselves easily evaluated.

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We investigate the dependence of Bayesian error bars on the distribution of data in input space. For generalized linear regression models we derive an upper bound on the error bars which shows that, in the neighbourhood of the data points, the error bars are substantially reduced from their prior values. For regions of high data density we also show that the contribution to the output variance due to the uncertainty in the weights can exhibit an approximate inverse proportionality to the probability density. Empirical results support these conclusions.

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It is well known that one of the obstacles to effective forecasting of exchange rates is heteroscedasticity (non-stationary conditional variance). The autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) model and its variants have been used to estimate a time dependent variance for many financial time series. However, such models are essentially linear in form and we can ask whether a non-linear model for variance can improve results just as non-linear models (such as neural networks) for the mean have done. In this paper we consider two neural network models for variance estimation. Mixture Density Networks (Bishop 1994, Nix and Weigend 1994) combine a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a mixture model to estimate the conditional data density. They are trained using a maximum likelihood approach. However, it is known that maximum likelihood estimates are biased and lead to a systematic under-estimate of variance. More recently, a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation has been developed (Bishop and Qazaz 1996) that shows promise in removing the maximum likelihood bias. However, up to now, this model has not been used for time series prediction. Here we compare these algorithms with two other models to provide benchmark results: a linear model (from the ARIMA family), and a conventional neural network trained with a sum-of-squares error function (which estimates the conditional mean of the time series with a constant variance noise model). This comparison is carried out on daily exchange rate data for five currencies.

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For neural networks with a wide class of weight priors, it can be shown that in the limit of an infinite number of hidden units, the prior over functions tends to a gaussian process. In this article, analytic forms are derived for the covariance function of the gaussian processes corresponding to networks with sigmoidal and gaussian hidden units. This allows predictions to be made efficiently using networks with an infinite number of hidden units and shows, somewhat paradoxically, that it may be easier to carry out Bayesian prediction with infinite networks rather than finite ones.

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In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

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In many problems in spatial statistics it is necessary to infer a global problem solution by combining local models. A principled approach to this problem is to develop a global probabilistic model for the relationships between local variables and to use this as the prior in a Bayesian inference procedure. We show how a Gaussian process with hyper-parameters estimated from Numerical Weather Prediction Models yields meteorologically convincing wind fields. We use neural networks to make local estimates of wind vector probabilities. The resulting inference problem cannot be solved analytically, but Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods allow us to retrieve accurate wind fields.