Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s

Why do some banks fail in financial crises while others survive? This article answers this question by analysing the effect of the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s on 142 banks, of which 33 failed. We find that choices of balance sheet composition and product market strategy made in the lead-up to the crisis had a significant impact on banks’ subsequent chances of experiencing distress. We document that high-risk banks – those operating highly-leveraged portfolios and attracting large quantities of deposits – were more likely to fail. Branching and international activities also increased banks’ default probabilities. We measure the effects of board interlocks, which have been characterized in the extant literature as contributing to the Dutch crisis. We find that boards mattered: failing banks had smaller boards, shared directors with smaller and very profitable banks and had a lower concentration of interlocking directorates in non-financial firms.

Simvastatin in the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Background

Studies in animals and in vitro and phase 2 studies in humans suggest that statins may be beneficial in the treatment of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). This study tested the hypothesis that treatment with simvastatin would improve clinical outcomes in patients with ARDS.

Methods

In this multicenter, double-blind clinical trial, we randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) patients with an onset of ARDS within the previous 48 hours to receive enteral simvastatin at a dose of 80 mg or placebo once daily for a maximum of 28 days. The primary outcome was the number of ventilator-free days to day 28. Secondary outcomes included the number of days free of nonpulmonary organ failure to day 28, mortality at 28 days, and safety.

Results

The study recruited 540 patients, with 259 patients assigned to simvastatin and 281 to placebo. The groups were well matched with respect to demographic and baseline physiological variables. There was no significant difference between the study groups in the mean (±SD) number of ventilator-free days (12.6±9.9 with simvastatin and 11.5±10.4 with placebo, P=0.21) or days free of nonpulmonary organ failure (19.4±11.1 and 17.8±11.7, respectively; P=0.11) or in mortality at 28 days (22.0% and 26.8%, respectively; P=0.23). There was no significant difference between the two groups in the incidence of serious adverse events related to the study drug.

Conclusions

Simvastatin therapy, although safe and associated with minimal adverse effects, did not improve clinical outcomes in patients with ARDS. (Funded by the U.K. National Institute for Health Research Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme and others; HARP-2 Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN88244364.)

Acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae diagnosed by polymerase chain reaction

Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is a common pathogen in cases of atypical pneumonia. Most individuals with Mycoplasma pneumonia run a benign course, with non-specific symptoms of malaise, fever and non-productive cough that usually resolve with no long-term sequelae. Acute lung injury is not commonly seen in Mycoplasma pneumonia. We report a case of acute respiratory distress syndrome cause by M. pneumoniae diagnosed by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

Family-based associations in measures of psychological distress and quality of life in a cardiac screening clinic for inheritable cardiac diseases: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Family-based cardiac screening programmes for persons at risk for genetic cardiac diseases are now recommended. However, the psychological wellbeing and health related quality of life (QoL) of such screened patients is poorly understood, especially in younger patients. We sought to examine wellbeing and QoL in a representative group of adults aged 16 and over in a dedicated family cardiac screening clinic.

METHODS: Prospective survey of consecutive consenting patients attending a cardiac screening clinic, over a 12 month period. Data were collected using two health measurement tools: the Short Form 12 (version 2) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), along with baseline demographic and screening visit-related data. The HADS and SF-12v.2 outcomes were compared by age group. Associations with a higher HADS score were examined using logistic regression, with multi-level modelling used to account for the family-based structure of the data.

RESULTS: There was a study response rate of 86.6%, with n=334 patients providing valid HADS data (valid response rate 79.5%), and data on n=316 retained for analysis. One-fifth of patients were aged under 25 (n=61). Younger patients were less likely than older to describe significant depression on their HADS scale (p<0.0001), although there were overall no difference between the prevalence of a significant HADS score between the younger and older age groups (18.0% vs 20.0%, p=0.73). Significant positive associates of a higher HADS score were having lower educational attainment, being single or separated, and being closely related to the family proband. Between-family variance in anxiety and depression scores was greater than within-family variance.

CONCLUSIONS: High levels of anxiety were seen amongst patients attending a family-based cardiac screening clinic.Younger patients also had high rates of clinically significant anxiety. Higher levels of anxiety and depression tends to run in families, and this has implications for family screening and intervention programmes.

Climatic signals in the life histories of insects:the distribution and abundance of heather psyllids (Strophingia spp.) in the UK

1. The population density and age structure of two species of heather psyllid Strophingia ericae and Strophingia cinereae, feeding on Calluna vulgaris and Erica cinerea, respectively, were sampled using standardized methods at locations throughout Britain. Locations were chosen to represent the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of the host plants.

2. The paper explains how spatial variation in thermal environment, insect life-history characteristics and physiology, and plant distribution, interact to provide the mechanisms that determine the range and abundance of Strophingia spp.

3. Strophingia ericae and S. cinereae, despite the similarity in the spatial distribution patterns of their host plants within Britain, display strongly contrasting geographical ranges and corresponding life-history strategies. Strophingia ericae is found on its host plant throughout Britain but S. cinereae is restricted to low elevation sites south of the Mersey-Humber line and occupies only part of the latitudinal and altitudinal range of its host plant. There is no evidence to suggest that S. ericae has reached its potential altitudinal or latitudinal limit in the UK, even though its host plant appears to reach its altitudinal limit.

4. There was little difference in the ability of the two Strophingia spp. to survive shortterm exposure to temperatures as low as - 15 degrees C and low winter temperatures probably do not limit distribution in S. cinereae.

5. Population density of S. ericae was not related to altitude but showed a weak correlation with latitude. The spread of larval instars present at a site, measured as an index of instar homogeneity, was significantly correlated with a range of temperature related variables, of which May mean temperature and length of growing season above 3 degrees C (calculated using the Lennon and Turner climatic model) were the most significant. Factor analysis did not improve the level of correlation significantly above those obtained for single climatic variables. The data confirmed that S. ericae has a I year life cycle at the lowest elevations and a 2 year life cycle at the higher elevations. However, there was no evidence, as previously suggested, for an abrupt change from a one to a 2 year life cycle in S. ericae with increasing altitudes or latitudes.

6. By contrast with S. ericae, S. cinereae had an obligatory 1 year life cycle, its population decreased with altitude and the index of instar homogeneity showed little correlation with single temperature variables. Moreover, it occupied only part of the range of its host plant and its spatial distribution in the UK could be predicted with 96% accuracy using selected variables in discriminant analysis.

7. The life histories of the congeneric heather psyllids reflect adaptations that allow them to exploit host plants with different distributions in climatic and thereby geographical space. Strophingia ericae has the flexible life history that enables it to exploit C. vulgaris throughout its European boreal temperate range. Strophingia cinereae has a less flexible life history and is adapted for living on an oceanic temperate host. While the geographic ranges of the two Strophingia spp. overlap within the UK, the psyllids appear to respond differently to variation in their thermal environment.

Aspirin therapy in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with reduced intensive care unit mortality: a prospective analysis

INTRODUCTION: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common clinical syndrome with high mortality and long-term morbidity. To date there is no effective pharmacological therapy. Aspirin therapy has recently been shown to reduce the risk of developing ARDS, but the effect of aspirin on established ARDS is unknown.

METHODS: In a single large regional medical and surgical ICU between December 2010 and July 2012, all patients with ARDS were prospectively identified and demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were recorded retrospectively. Aspirin usage, both pre-hospital and during intensive care unit (ICU) stay, was included. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess the impact of these variables on ICU mortality.

RESULTS: In total, 202 patients with ARDS were included; 56 (28%) of these received aspirin either pre-hospital, in the ICU, or both. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, aspirin therapy, given either before or during hospital stay, was associated with a reduction in ICU mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.38 (0.15 to 0.96) P = 0.04). Additional factors that predicted ICU mortality for patients with ARDS were vasopressor use (OR 2.09 (1.05 to 4.18) P = 0.04) and APACHE II score (OR 1.07 (1.02 to 1.13) P = 0.01). There was no effect upon ICU length of stay or hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION: Aspirin therapy was associated with a reduced risk of ICU mortality. These data are the first to demonstrate a potential protective role for aspirin in patients with ARDS. Clinical trials to evaluate the role of aspirin as a pharmacological intervention for ARDS are needed.

Unexpected Role for Adaptive αβTh17 Cells in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a devastating disorder characterized by increased alveolar permeability with no effective treatment beyond supportive care. Current mechanisms underlying ARDS focus on alveolar endothelial and epithelial injury caused by products of innate immune cells and platelets. However, the role of adaptive immune cells in ARDS remains largely unknown. In this study, we report that expansion of Ag-specific αβTh17 cells contributes to ARDS by local secretion of IL-17A, which in turn directly increases alveolar epithelial permeability. Mice with a highly restrictive defect in Ag-specific αβTh17 cells were protected from experimental ARDS induced by a single dose of endotracheal LPS. Loss of IL-17 receptor C or Ab blockade of IL-17A was similarly protective, further suggesting that IL-17A released by these cells was responsible for this effect. LPS induced a rapid and specific clonal expansion of αβTh17 cells in the lung, as determined by deep sequencing of the hypervariable CD3RβVJ region of the TCR. Our findings could be relevant to ARDS in humans, because we found significant elevation of IL-17A in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from patients with ARDS, and rIL-17A directly increased permeability across cultured human alveolar epithelial monolayers. These results reveal a previously unexpected role for adaptive immune responses that increase alveolar permeability in ARDS and suggest that αβTh17 cells and IL-17A could be novel therapeutic targets for this currently untreatable disease.

Mesenchymal stromal cells for treatment of the acute respiratory distress syndrome: The beginning of the story

In spite of decades of research, the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) continues to have an unacceptably high mortality and morbidity. Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) present a promising candidate for the treatment of this condition and have demonstrated benefit in preclinical models. MSCs, which are a topic of growing interest in many inflammatory disorders, have already progressed to early phase clinical trials in ARDS. While a number of their mechanisms of effect have been elucidated, a better understanding of the complex actions of these cells may pave the way for MSC modifications, which might enable more effective translation into clinical practice.

The Prenatal Distress Questionnaire:An investigation of factor structure in a high risk population

Background: The Prenatal Distress Questionnaire (PDQ) is a short measure designed to assess specific worries and concerns related to pregnancy. The aim of this study was to confirm the factor structure of the PDQ in a group of pregnant women with a small for gestational age infant (< 10th centile). Methods: The first PDQ assessment for each of 337 pregnant women participating in the Prospective Observational Trial to Optimise paediatric health (PORTO) study was analysed. All women enrolled in the study were identified as having a small for gestational age foetus (< 10th centile), thus representing an 'elevated risk' group. Data were analysed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Three models of the PDQ were evaluated and compared in the current study: a theoretical uni-dimensional measurement model, a bi-dimensional model, and a three-factor model solution. Results: The three-factor model offered the best fit to the data while maintaining sound theoretical grounds(χ² (51df) = 128.52; CFI = 0.97; TLI = 0.96; RMSEA = 0.07). Factor 1 contained items reflecting concerns about birth and the baby, factor 2 concerns about physical symptoms and body image and factor 3 concerns about emotions and relationships. Conclusions: CFA confirmed that the three-factor model provided the best fit, with the items in each factor reflecting the findings of an earlier exploratory data analysis. © 2013 Society for Reproductive and Infant Psychology.

Mental illness or mental distress; stigma and concealment in University students - a discussion paper

This discussion paper addresses the issue of mental distress, sometimes mis- perceived or misinterpreted as mental illness. The
focus is on positive psychology. Reflecting in part on a UK-based study with younger University students studying to health
related degrees, nursing, midwifery and medicine (N = 12), many of the students were apparently suffering dis-stress with
disordered eating at least in part being used as a coping mechanism. However notwithstanding that they were at the end of
their first year studies in health, a significant number of the students interpreted their approach to eating as a mental illness.
Consequently, many within the study felt stigmatised and were reluctant to acknowledge certainly to the University health care
authorities that there was an issue; perceiving both academic and career/professional consequences of mental health labelling. The
paper approaches the issue of mental health from a health promoting perspective, reflecting against the theory of salutogenesis
and its focus within the three dimensions of comprehensibility, manageability and meaningfulness as an approach to building
resilience and managing stressors to better facilitate a sense of coherence. Complex manifestations of distress and poor coping
mechanisms can in some cases be misinterpreted or miss perceived as mental illness. Promoting mental health and reducing the
stigma of mental illness or the misperception of mental distress as mental illness, would need to be addressed in order to more
effectively outreach certainly to younger University students who might be at risk. The focus should be on how better to promote
their sense of coherence.