954 resultados para Disease evolution model


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Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease in which unknown arthrogenic autoantigen is presented to CD4+ T cells. The strong association of the disease with an epitope within the HLA-DR chain shared between various alleles of HLA-DR4 and DR1 emphasizes the importance of antigen presentation. This immune response predominantly occurs in the synovial tissue and fluid of the joints and autoreactive T cells are readily demonstrable in both the synovial compartment and blood. Circulating dendritic cells (DC) are phenotypically and functionally identical with normal peripheral blood (PB) DC. In the synovial tissue, fully differentiated perivascular DC are found in close association with T cells and with B cell follicles, sometimes containing follicular DC. These perivascular DC migrate across the activated endothelium from blood and receive differentiative signals within the joint from monocyte-derived cytokines and CD40-ligand+ T cells. In the SF, DC manifest an intermediate phenotype, similar to that of monocyte-derived DC in vitro. Like a delayed-type hypersensitivity response, the rheumatoid synovium represents an effector site. DC at many effector sites have a characteristic pattern of infiltration and differentiation. It is important to note that the effector response is not self-limiting in RA autoimmune inflammation. In this article, we argue that the presentation of self-antigen by DC and by autoantibody-producing B cells is critical for the perpetuation of the autoimmune response. Permanently arresting this ongoing immune response with either pharmaceutical agents or immunotherapy is a major challenge for immunology.

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We derive analytical solutions for the three-dimensional time-dependent buckling of a non-Newtonian viscous plate in a less viscous medium. For the plate we assume a power-law rheology. The principal, axes of the stretching D-ij in the homogeneously deformed ground state are parallel and orthogonal to the bounding surfaces of the plate in the flat state. In the model formulation the action of the less viscous medium is replaced by equivalent reaction forces. The reaction forces are assumed to be parallel to the normal vector of the deformed plate surfaces. As a consequence, the buckling process is driven by the differences between the in-plane stresses and out of plane stress, and not by the in-plane stresses alone as assumed in previous models. The governing differential equation is essentially an orthotropic plate equation for rate dependent material, under biaxial pre-stress, supported by a viscous medium. The differential problem is solved by means of Fourier transformation and largest growth coefficients and corresponding wavenumbers are evaluated. We discuss in detail fold evolutions for isotropic in-plane stretching (D-11 = D-22), uniaxial plane straining (D-22 = 0) and in-plane flattening (D-11 = -2D(22)). Three-dimensional plots illustrate the stages of fold evolution for random initial perturbations or initial embryonic folds with axes non-parallel to the maximum compression axis. For all situations, one dominant set of folds develops normal to D-11, although the dominant wavelength differs from the Biot dominant wavelength except when the plate has a purely Newtonian viscosity. However, in the direction parallel to D-22, there exist infinitely many modes in the vicinity of the dominant wavelength which grow only marginally slower than the one corresponding to the dominant wavelength. This means that, except for very special initial conditions, the appearance of a three-dimensional fold will always be governed by at least two wavelengths. The wavelength in the direction parallel to D-11 is the dominant wavelength, and the wavelength(s) in the direction parallel to D-22 is determined essentially by the statistics of the initial state. A comparable sensitivity to the initial geometry does not exist in the classic two-dimensional folding models. In conformity with tradition we have applied Kirchhoff's hypothesis to constrain the cross-sectional rotations of the plate. We investigate the validity of this hypothesis within the framework of Reissner's plate theory. We also include a discussion of the effects of adding elasticity into the constitutive relations and show that there exist critical ratios of the relaxation times of the plate and the embedding medium for which two dominant wavelengths develop, one at ca. 2.5 of the classical Biot dominant wavelength and the other at ca. 0.45 of this wavelength. We propose that herein lies the origin of parasitic folds well known in natural examples.

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A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

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Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

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The Alzheimer's disease amyloid protein precursor (APP) gene is part of a multi-gene super-family from which sixteen homologous amyloid precursor-like proteins (APLP) and APP species homologues have been isolated and characterised. Comparison of exon structure (including the uncharacterised APL-1 gene), construction of phylogenetic trees, and analysis of the protein sequence alignment of known homologues of the APP super-family were performed to reconstruct the evolution of the family and to assess the functional significance of conserved protein sequences between homologues. This analysis supports an adhesion function for all members of the APP super family, with specificity determined by those sequences which are not conserved between APLP lineages, and provides evidence for an increasingly complex APP superfamily during evolution. The analysis also suggests that Drosophila APPL and Caenorhabdotids elegans APL-1 may be a fourth APLP lineage indicating that these proteins, while not functional homologues of human APP, are similarly likely to regulate cell adhesion. Furthermore, the beta A4 sequence is highly conserved only in APP orthologues, strongly suggesting this sequence is of significant functional importance in this lineage. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The national and Victorian burden of disease studies in Australia set out to examine critically the methods used in the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate the burden of mental disorders. The main differences include the use of a different set of disability weights allowing estimates in greater detail by level of severity, adjustments for comorbidity between mental disorders, a greater number of menta I disorders measured, and model ling of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and bipolar disorder as chronic conditions. Uniform age-weighting in the Australian studies produces considerably lower estimates of the burden due to mental disorders in comparison with age-weighted disability-adjusted life years. A lack of follow-up data on people with mental disorders who are identified in cross-sectional surveys poses the greatest challenge in determining the burden of mental disorders more accurately.

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We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

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The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

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Animal venom components are of considerable interest to researchers across a wide variety of disciplines, including molecular biology, biochemistry, medicine, and evolutionary genetics. The three-finger family of snake venom peptides is a particularly interesting and biochemically complex group of venom peptides, because they are encoded by a large multigene family and display a diverse array of functional activities. In addition, understanding how this complex and highly varied multigene family evolved is an interesting question to researchers investigating the biochemical diversity of these peptides and their impact on human health. Therefore, the purpose of our study was to investigate the long-term evolutionary patterns exhibited by these snake venom toxins to understand the mechanisms by which they diversified into a large, biochemically diverse, multigene family. Our results show a much greater diversity of family members than was previously known, including a number of subfamilies that did not fall within any previously identified groups with characterized activities. In addition, we found that the long-term evolutionary processes that gave rise to the diversity of three-finger toxins are consistent with the birth-and-death model of multigene family evolution. It is anticipated that this three-finger toxin toolkit will prove to be useful in providing a clearer picture of the diversity of investigational ligands or potential therapeutics available within this important family.

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The paper presents a theory for modeling flow in anisotropic, viscous rock. This theory has originally been developed for the simulation of large deformation processes including the folding and kinking of multi-layered visco-elastic rock (Muhlhaus et al. [1,2]). The orientation of slip planes in the context of crystallographic slip is determined by the normal vector - the director - of these surfaces. The model is applied to simulate anisotropic mantle convection. We compare the evolution of flow patterns, Nusselt number and director orientations for isotropic and anisotropic rheologies. In the simulations we utilize two different finite element methodologies: The Lagrangian Integration Point Method Moresi et al [8] and an Eulerian formulation, which we implemented into the finite element based pde solver Fastflo (www.cmis.csiro.au/Fastflo/). The reason for utilizing two different finite element codes was firstly to study the influence of an anisotropic power law rheology which currently is not implemented into the Lagrangian Integration point scheme [8] and secondly to study the numerical performance of Eulerian (Fastflo)- and Lagrangian integration schemes [8]. It turned out that whereas in the Lagrangian method the Nusselt number vs time plot reached only a quasi steady state where the Nusselt number oscillates around a steady state value the Eulerian scheme reaches exact steady states and produces a high degree of alignment (director orientation locally orthogonal to velocity vector almost everywhere in the computational domain). In the simulations emergent anisotropy was strongest in terms of modulus contrast in the up and down-welling plumes. Mechanisms for anisotropic material behavior in the mantle dynamics context are discussed by Christensen [3]. The dominant mineral phases in the mantle generally do not exhibit strong elastic anisotropy but they still may be oriented by the convective flow. Thus viscous anisotropy (the main focus of this paper) may or may not correlate with elastic or seismic anisotropy.

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Background: Although there is evidence demonstrating an association between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), it is not clear whether COPD predicts greater rates of expansion of established aneurysms. We sought such an association in a cohort of men with aneurysms detected in a population-based study of screening for aneurysms. Methods: In addition to regular aortic ultrasound scans, 179 men with AAA underwent full lung function testing in order to identify the presence of COPD and its subgroups, emphysema and other obstructive ventilatory defects (OVD). The rate of expansion of each aneurysm was calculated and the men were divided into 'rapid expanders' (3 mm or more per year) and 'slow expanders' (less than 3 mm per year). Any association with the presence of COPD or smoking was tested using a multivariate model. Results: Over a median follow-up period of 36 months the mean rate of aortic expansion for the cohort of 179 men was 2.1 mm/year. There was no significant difference in prevalence of COPD (68% overall) or having ever been a smoker (87% overall) between the rapid expanders and the slow expanders. Conclusions: Although there was a high prevalence of COPD among men with an AAA, there was no association between the rate of expansion of AAA and the presence of any form of this disease.

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Reasons for performing study: Light microscopical studies show that the key lesion of laminitis is separation at the hoof lamellar dermal-epidermal interface. More precise knowledge of the damage occurring in the lamellar basement membrane zone may result if laminitis affected tissue is examined with the transmission electron microscope. This could lead to better understanding of the pathogenesis of lesions and the means of treatment or prevention. Objectives: To investigate the ultrastructure of acute laminitis as disease of greater severity is induced by increasing oligofructose (OF) dosage. Methods: Three pairs of normal horses, dosed with OF at 7.5, 10 and 12.5 g/kg bwt via nasogastric intubation, developed laminitis 48 h later. Following euthanasia, their forefeet were processed for transmission electron microscopy. Lamellar basal cell hemidesmosome (HD) numbers and the distance between the basal cell plasmalemma and the lamina densa of the basement membrane were estimated and compared to control tissue. Results: Increasing OF dosage caused greater HD loss and more severe laminitis. The characteristic separation of the basement membrane, cytoskeleton failure and rounded basal cell nuclei results from combined HD dysassembly and anchoring filament failure. Conclusions: Without properly assembled HDs, dysadhesion between the lamina densa of the basement membrane (BM) and epidermal basal cells occurs, emphasising the fundamental importance of HDs in maintaining attachment at the lamellar interface. Medical conditions that trigger lamellar matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activation and/or compromise entry of glucose into lamellar basal cells appear to promote loss and failure of HDs and, therefore, laminitis development. Potential relevance: A correlation between lameness severity and escalating loss of lamellar HDs now exists. Therapy aimed at protecting the lamellar environment from haematogenous delivery of MMP activators or from glucose deprivation may control laminitis development.

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We report here genome sequences and comparative analyses of three closely related parasitoid wasps: Nasonia vitripennis, N. giraulti, and N. longicornis. Parasitoids are important regulators of arthropod populations, including major agricultural pests and disease vectors, and Nasonia is an emerging genetic model, particularly for evolutionary and developmental genetics. Key findings include the identification of a functional DNA methylation tool kit; hymenopteran-specific genes including diverse venoms; lateral gene transfers among Pox viruses, Wolbachia, and Nasonia; and the rapid evolution of genes involved in nuclear-mitochondrial interactions that are implicated in speciation. Newly developed genome resources advance Nasonia for genetic research, accelerate mapping and cloning of quantitative trait loci, and will ultimately provide tools and knowledge for further increasing the utility of parasitoids as pest insect-control agents.

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We used an event related fMRI design to study the BOLD response in Huntington’s disease (HD) patients during performance of a Simon interference task. We hypothesised that HD patients will demonstrate significantly slower RTs than controls, and that there will be significant differences in the pattern of brain activation between groups. Seventeen HD patients and 15 age and sex matched controls were scanned using 3T GE scanner (FOV = 24 cm2; TE = 40 ms; TR = 3 s; FA = 60°; slice thickness = 6 mm; in-plane resolution = 1.88x1.88 mm2). The task involved two activation conditions, namely congruent (for example, left pointing arrow appearing on the left side of the screen) and incongruent (for example, left pointing arrow appearing on the right side of the screen), and a baseline condition. Each stimulus was presented for 2500 ms followed by a blank screen for 500 ms. Subjects were instructed to press a button using the same hand as indicated by the direction of the arrow head and were given 3000 ms to respond. Data analysis was performed using SPM2 with a random effects analysis model. For each subject parameter estimates for combined task conditions (congruent and incongruent combined) were calculated. Comparisons such as these, based on block designs, have superior statistical power for detecting subtle changes in the BOLD response anywhere in the brain. The activations reported are significant at PFDR_corr

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Background: Inflammatory events antecede established renal injury in rats with 5/6 renal ablation (Nx), as indicated by the beneficial effects of early, uninterrupted treatment with mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). Angiotensin II also exerts a major pathogenic role at this initial phase. We investigated whether losartan (L) or L+MMF treatment, started early, and L+MMF treatment, started late, would exert lasting renoprotection in Nx even after being discontinued. Methods: Adult male Munich-Wistar rats underwent Nx and were divided into three groups: Nx (untreated), Nx(L) (given L), and Nx(LMMF) (given L and MMF). Protocol 1: treatments began on day 1, and ceased on day 30, after Nx. Protocol 2: L+MMF treatment began on day 30 and ceased on day 60. Results: Protocol 1: on day 30, hypertension, albuminuria and renal injury were strongly attenuated in Groups Nx(L) and Nx(LMMF). On day 120, these abnormalities were still attenuated in group Nx(LMMF). Protocol 2: on day 120, all parameters were similar between this late Nx(LMMF) group and untreated Nx. Conclusion: In Nx, temporary suppression of early, transitory hemodynamic/inflammatory phenomena affords relatively durable renoprotection even after treatment discontinuation. This effect is not obtained with similar temporary treatment initiated later in the course of renal disease. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel