A frailty modeling approach for parental effects in animal breeding

Survival models involving frailties are commonly applied in studies where correlated event time data arise due to natural or artificial clustering. In this paper we present an application of such models in the animal breeding field. Specifically, a mixed survival model with a multivariate correlated frailty term is proposed for the analysis of data from over 3611 Brazilian Nellore cattle. The primary aim is to evaluate parental genetic effects on the trait length in days that their progeny need to gain a commercially specified standard weight gain. This trait is not measured directly but can be estimated from growth data. Results point to the importance of genetic effects and suggest that these models constitute a valuable data analysis tool for beef cattle breeding.

A generalized modified Weibull distribution for lifetime modeling

A four parameter generalization of the Weibull distribution capable of modeling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone as well as non-monotone failure rates, which are quite common in lifetime problems and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the Weibull, extreme value, exponentiated Weibull, generalized Rayleigh and modified Weibull distributions, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. The density of the order statistics is obtained. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters. Also, the observed information matrix is obtained. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alterations in energy properties of eucalyptus wood and bark subjected to torrefaction: The potential of mass loss as a synthetic indicator

Torrefaction is a mild pyrolysis process (usually up to 300 degrees C) that changes the chemical and physical properties of biomass. This process is a possible pre-treatment prior to further processes (transport, grinding, combustion, gasification, etc) to generate energy or biofuels. In this study, three eucalyptus wood species and bark were subjected to different torrefaction conditions to determine the alterations in their structural and energy properties. The most severe treatment (280 degrees C, 5 h) causes mass losses of more than 35%, with severe damage to anatomical structure, and an increase of about 27% in the specific energy content. Bark is more sensitive to heat than wood. Energy yields are always higher than mass yields, thereby demonstrating the benefits of torrefaction in concentrating biomass energy. The overall mass loss is proposed as a relevant parameter to synthesize the effect of torrefaction conditions (temperature and duration). Accordingly, all results are summarised by analytical expressions able to predict the energy properties as a function of the overall mass loss. These expressions are intended to be used in any optimization procedure, from production in the field to the final use. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Modeling of transpiration reduction in van Genuchten-Mualem type soils

We derive an analytic expression for the matric flux potential (M) for van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) type soils which can also be written in terms of a converging infinite series. Considering the first four terms of this series, the accuracy of the approximation was verified by comparing it to values of M estimated by numerical finite difference integration. Using values of the parameters for three soils from different texture classes, the proposed four-term approximation showed an almost perfect match with the numerical solution, except for effective saturations higher than 0.9. Including more terms reduced the discrepancy but also increased the complexity of the equation. The four-term equation can be used for most applications. Cases with special interest in nearly saturated soils should include more terms from the infinite series. A transpiration reduction function for use with the VGM equations is derived by combining the derived expression for M with a root water extraction model. The shape of the resulting reduction function and its dependency on the derivative of the soil hydraulic diffusivity D with respect to the soil water content theta is discussed. Positive and negative values of dD/d theta yield concave and convex or S-shaped reduction functions, respectively. On the basis of three data sets, the hydraulic properties of virtually all soils yield concave reduction curves. Such curves based solely on soil hydraulic properties do not account for the complex interactions between shoot growth, root growth, and water availability.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pyrolysis-Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry of Soil Organic Matter Extracted from a Brazilian Mangrove and Spanish Salt Marshes

The soil organic matter (SOM) extracted under different vegetation types from a Brazilian mangrove (Pai Matos Island, Sao Paulo State) and from three Spanish salt marshes (Betanzos Ria and Corrubedo Natural Parks, Galicia, and the Albufera Natural Park, Valencia) was investigated by pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS). The chemical variation was larger in SOM from the Spanish marshes than in the SOM of the Brazilian mangroves, possibly because the marshes included sites with both tidal and nontidal variation, whereas the mangrove forest underwent just tidal variation. Thus, plant-derived organic matter was better preserved under permanently anoxic environments. Moreover, given the low number of studied profiles and sedimentary-vegetation sequences in both areas, depth trends remain unclear. The chemical data also allow distinction between the contributions of woody and nonwoody vegetation inputs. Soil organic matter decomposition was found to cause: (i) a decrease in lignin contents and a relative increase in aliphatics; (ii) an increase in short-chain aliphatics at the expense of longer ones; (iii) a loss of odd-over-even dominance in alkanes and alkenes; and (iv) an increase in microbial products, including proteins, sterols, short-chain fatty acids, and alkanes. Pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry is a useful tool to study the behavior and composition of SOM in wetland environments such as mangroves and salt marshes. Additional profiles need to be studied for each vegetation type, however, to improve the interpretability of the chemical data.

Body weight as an indicator of fat-free mass in active elderly women

Objective: Fat-free mass (FFM) reduction and the tendency for a reduction in surrounding fatty issue and increase in the middle are a natural consequence of growing old and should be studied in order to gain a better understanding of the aging process. This study set out to find the FFM differences between active elderly women in two age groups (60-69 and 70-80 years) and to determine which of the anthropometric measurements, body weight (BW), abdominal circumference (AC), or body mass index (BMI) are the best predictors of FFM variation within the group. Methods: Eighty-one (n = 81) active elderly women of the Third Age willingly signed up to participate in the research during the activities at the University of the Third Age (UTA) in Brazil. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Body weight (BW), height (H) and the BMI were measured according to the international standards. The AC was measured in centimetres at the H of the navel and body composition was ascertained using bioimpedance analysis. The SAS program was used to perform the statistical analysis of independent samples and parametric data. Results: The results showed FFM values with significant differences between the two groups, with the lowest values occurring among the women who were over 70 years of age. In the analysis, the Pearson`s Correlation Coefficient for each measured independent variable was ascertained, with the BW measurement showing the highest ratio (0.900). Conclusions: The BW measurement was regarded as reliable, low-cost and easy to use for monitoring FFM in elderly women who engage in physical activities. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parameterization and Evaluation of Predictions of DSSAT/CANEGRO for Brazilian Sugarcane

The DSSAT/CANEGRO model was parameterized and its predictions evaluated using data from five sugarcane (Sacchetrum spp.) experiments conducted in southern Brazil. The data used are from two of the most important Brazilian cultivars. Some parameters whose values were either directly measured or considered to be well known were not adjusted. Ten of the 20 parameters were optimized using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithm using the leave-one-out cross-validation technique. Model predictions were evaluated using measured data of leaf area index (LA!), stalk and aerial dry mass, sucrose content, and soil water content, using bias, root mean squared error (RMSE), modeling efficiency (Eff), correlation coefficient, and agreement index. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)/CANEGRO model simulated the sugarcane crop in southern Brazil well, using the parameterization reported here. The soil water content predictions were better for rainfed (mean RMSE = 0.122mm) than for irrigated treatment (mean RMSE = 0.214mm). Predictions were best for aerial dry mass (Eff = 0.850), followed by stalk dry mass (Eff = 0.765) and then sucrose mass (Eff = 0.170). Number of green leaves showed the worst fit (Eff = -2.300). The cross-validation technique permits using multiple datasets that would have limited use if used independently because of the heterogeneity of measures and measurement strategies.

Changes in bone mass, biomechanical properties, and microarchitecture of calcium- and iron-deficient rats fed diets supplemented with inulin-type fructans

Feeding mineral-deficient diets enhances absorptive efficiency as an attempt of the body to compensate for the lack of an essential nutrient. Under certain circumstances, it does not succeed, and nutritional deficiency is produced Our hypothesis was that mulin-type fructans (ITF), which arc known to affect mineral absorption, could increase Ca and Fe bioavailability in Ca- and Fe-deficient rats. Male Wistar rats (n = 48, 4 weeks old) were assigned to I of 8 groups derived from 2 x 2 x 2 factorial design with 2 levels of added Fe (0 and 35 mg/kg), Ca (0 and 5 g/kg), and ITF (0 and 100 g/kg) for 33 days. The Fe status (hemoglobin, serum Fe, total Fe-binding capacity, transferrin saturation, liver minerals) was evaluated. Tibia minerals (Ca, Mg, and Zn), bone strength, and histomorphometry were determined In nondeficient rats, ITF supplementation did not affect Fe status or organ minerals, with the exception of tibia Mg Moreover, ITF improved bone resilience and led to a reduction in eroded surface per body surface and number of osteoclasts per area In Ca-deficient rats, ITF increased liver (Fe and Zn) and tibia (Zn) mineral levels but impaired tibia Mg, yield load, and resilience. In conclusion, ITF worsened the tibia Mg levels and elastic properties when supplemented in Ca-deficient diets In contrast, although bone Ca was not affected in nondeficient rats under the present experimental conditions, bone quality improved, as demonstrated by a moderate reduction in femur osteoclast resorption and significant increases in tibia Mg content and elasticity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determination of eight fatty acid ethyl esters in meconium samples by headspace solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

A number of fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEEs) have recently been detected in meconium samples. Several of these FAEEs have been evaluated as possible biomarkers for in utero ethanol exposure. In the present study, a method was optimized and validated for the simultaneous determination of eight FAEEs (ethyl laurate, ethyl myristate, ethyl palmitate, ethyl palmitoleate, ethyl stearate, ethyl oleate, ethyl linoleate and ethyl arachidonate) in meconium samples. FAEEs were extracted by headspace solid-phase microextraction. Analyte detection and quantification were carried out using GC-MS operated in chemical ionization mode. The corresponding D5-ethyl esters were synthesized and used as internal standards. The LOQ and LOD for each analyte were <150 and <100 ng/g, respectively. The method showed good linearity (r(2)>0.98) in the concentration range studied (LOQ -2000 ng/g). The intra- and interday imprecision, given by the RSD of the method, was lower than 15% for all FAEEs studied. The validated method was applied to 63 authentic specimens. FAEEs could be detected in alcohol-exposed newborns ( >600 ng/g cumulative concentration). Interestingly, FAEEs could also be detected in some non-exposed newborns, although the concentrations were much lower than those measured in exposed cases.

Increased MMA concentration and body mass index are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women A pilot study

Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods for detection of anatoxin-a(s) by liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry

Anatoxin-a(s) is a potent irreversible inhibitor of the enzyme acetylcholinesterase with a unique N-hydroxyguanidine methylphosphate ester chemical structure. Determination of this toxin in environmental samples is hampered by the lack of specific methods for its detection. Using the toxic strain of Anabaena lemmermani PH-160 B as positive control, the fragmentation characteristics of anatoxin-a(s) under collision-induced dissociation conditions have been investigated and new LC-MS/MS methods proposed. Recommended ion transitions for correct detection of this toxin are 253 > 58, 253 > 159, 235 > 98 and 235 > 96. Chromatographic separation is better achieved under HILIC conditions employing a ZIC-HILIC column. This method was used to confirm for the first time the production of anatoxin-a(s) by strains of Anabaena oumiana ITEP-025 and ITEP-026. Considering no standard solutions are commercially available, our results will be of significant use for the correct identification of this toxin by LC-MS/MS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.