Competing regression models for longitudinal data

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretestposttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses.

Accuracy of positron emission tomography/computed tomography and clinical assessment in the detection of complete rectal tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiation Long-Term Results of a Prospective Trial (National Clinical Trial 00254683)

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) therapy may result in significant tumor regression in patients with rectal cancer. Patients who develop complete tumor regression have been managed by treatment strategies that are alternatives to standard total mesorectal excision. Therefore, assessment of tumor response with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) after neoadjuvant treatment may offer relevant information for the selection of patients to receive alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: Patients with clinical T2 (cT2) through cT4NxM0 rectal adenocarcinoma were included prospectively. Neoadjuvant therapy consisted of 54 grays of radiation and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Baseline PET/CT studies were obtained before CRT followed by PET/CT studies at 6 weeks and 12 weeks after the completion of CRT. Clinical assessment was performed at 12 weeks after CRT completion. PET/CT results were compared with clinical and pathologic data. RESULTS: In total, 99 patients were included in the study. Twenty-three patients were complete responders (16 had a complete clinical response, and 7 had a complete pathologic response). The PET/CT response evaluation at 12 weeks indicated that 18 patients had a complete response, and 81 patients had an incomplete response. There were 5 false-negative and 10 false-positive PET/CT results. PET/CT for the detection of residual cancer had 93% sensitivity, 53% specificity, a 73% negative predictive value, an 87% positive predictive value, and 85% accuracy. Clinical assessment alone resulted in an accuracy of 91%. PET/CT information may have detected misdiagnoses made by clinical assessment alone, improving overall accuracy to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tumor response at 12 weeks after CRT completion with PET/CT imaging may provide a useful additional tool with good overall accuracy for the selection of patients who may avoid unnecessary radical resection after achieving a complete clinical response. Cancer 2012;35013511. (C) 2011 American Cancer Society.

Numerical assessment of stability of interface discontinuous finite element pressure spaces

The stability of two recently developed pressure spaces has been assessed numerically: The space proposed by Ausas et al. [R.F. Ausas, F.S. Sousa, G.C. Buscaglia, An improved finite element space for discontinuous pressures, Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 199 (2010) 1019-1031], which is capable of representing discontinuous pressures, and the space proposed by Coppola-Owen and Codina [A.H. Coppola-Owen, R. Codina, Improving Eulerian two-phase flow finite element approximation with discontinuous gradient pressure shape functions, Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids, 49 (2005) 1287-1304], which can represent discontinuities in pressure gradients. We assess the stability of these spaces by numerically computing the inf-sup constants of several meshes. The inf-sup constant results as the solution of a generalized eigenvalue problems. Both spaces are in this way confirmed to be stable in their original form. An application of the same numerical assessment tool to the stabilized equal-order P-1/P-1 formulation is then reported. An interesting finding is that the stabilization coefficient can be safely set to zero in an arbitrary band of elements without compromising the formulation's stability. An analogous result is also reported for the mini-element P-1(+)/P-1 when the velocity bubbles are removed in an arbitrary band of elements. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of discontinuous Percoll gradient centrifugation on the quality of bovine spermatozoa evaluated with computer-assisted semen analysis and fluorescent probes association

The objective of this study was to evaluate the quality of bovine frozen-thawed sperm cells after Percoll gradient centrifugation. Frozen semen doses were obtained from six bulls of different breeds, including three taurine and three Zebu animals. Four ejaculates per bull were evaluated before and after discontinuous Percoll gradient centrifugation. Sperm motility was assessed by computer-assisted semen analysis and the integrity of the plasma and acrosomal membranes, as well as mitochondrial function, were evaluated using a combination of fluorescent probes propidium iodide, fluorescein isothiocyanate-conjugated Pisum sativum agglutinin and 5,5',6,6'-tetrachloro-1,1',3,3'-tetraethylbenzimidazolcarbocyanine iodide. The procedure of Percoll gradient centrifugation increased the percentage of total and progressive sperm motility, beat frequency, rectilinear motility, linearity and rapidly moving cells. In addition, the percentage of cells with intact plasma membrane and mitochondrial membrane potential was increased in post-centrifugation samples. However, the percentage of sperm cells with intact acrosomal membrane was markedly reduced. The method used selected the motile cells with intact plasma membrane and higher mitochondrial functionality in frozen-thawed bull semen, but processing, centrifugation and/or the Percoll medium caused damage to the acrosomal membrane.

Suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

Objective: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. Methods: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. Results: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. Conclusions: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of Sao Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

A new enrichment space for the treatment of discontinuous pressures in multi-fluid flows

In this work, a new enrichment space to accommodate jumps in the pressure field at immersed interfaces in finite element formulations, is proposed. The new enrichment adds two degrees of freedom per element that can be eliminated by means of static condensation. The new space is tested and compared with the classical P1 space and to the space proposed by Ausas et al (Comp. Meth. Appl. Mech. Eng., Vol. 199, 10191031, 2010) in several problems involving jumps in the viscosity and/or the presence of singular forces at interfaces not conforming with the element edges. The combination of this enrichment space with another enrichment that accommodates discontinuities in the pressure gradient has also been explored, exhibiting excellent results in problems involving jumps in the density or the volume forces. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Synthesis of 15N-enriched urea (CO(15NH2)2) from 15NH3, CO, and S in a discontinuous process

CO(15NH2)2 enriched with the stable isotope 15N was synthesized based on a reaction involving CO, 15NH3, and S in the presence of CH3OH. The method differs from the industrial method; a stainless steel reactor internally lined with polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) was used in a discontinuous process under low pressure and temperature. The yield of the synthesis was evaluated as a function of the parameters: the amount of reagents, reaction time, addition of H2S, liquid solution and reaction temperature. The results showed that under optimum conditions (1.36, 4.01, and 4.48 g of 15NH3, CO, and S, respectively, 40 ml CH3OH, 40 mg H2S, 100 ºC and 120 min of reaction) 1.82 g (yield 76.5%) of the compound was obtained per batch. The synthesized CO(15NH2)2 contained 46.2% N, 0.55% biuret, melting point of 132.55 ºC and did not exhibit isotopic fractionation. The production cost of CO(15NH2)2 with 90.0 at. % 15N was US$ 238.60 per gram.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.