Genetic Algorithm Search for Predictive Patterns in Multidimensional Time Series

Based on an algorithm for pattern matching in character strings, we implement a pattern matching machine that searches for occurrences of patterns in multidimensional time series. Before the search process takes place, time series are encoded in user-designed alphabets. The patterns, on the other hand, are formulated as regular expressions that are composed of letters from these alphabets and operators. Furthermore, we develop a genetic algorithm to breed patterns that maximize a user-defined fitness function. In an application to financial data, we show that patterns bred to predict high exchange rates volatility in training samples retain statistically significant predictive power in validation samples.

Unemployment Benefits and Reservation Wages: Key Elasticities from a Stripped-Down Job Search Approach

This paper exploits survey information on reservation wages and data on actual wages from the European Community Household Panel to deduce, in the manner of Lancaster and Chesher, additional parameters of a stylized structural search model; specifically, reservation wage and transition/duration elasticities. The informational requirements of this approach are minimal, thereby facilitating comparisons between countries. Further, its policy content is immediate in so far as the impact of unemployment benefit rules and measures increasing the arrival rate of job offers are concerned. These key elasticities are computed for the United Kingdom and 11 other European nations.

A Search for Line Shape and Depth Variations in 51 Pegasi and tau Bootis

Spectroscopic observations of 51 Pegasi and tau Bootis show no periodic changes in the shapes of their line profiles; these results for 51 Peg are in significant conflict with those reported by Gray & Hatzes. Our detection limits are small enough to rule out nonradial pulsations as the cause of the variability in tau Boo, but not in 51 Peg. The absence of line shape changes is consistent with these stars' radial velocity variability arising from planetary mass companions.

Pulsating or not? A search for hidden pulsations below the red edge of the ZZ Ceti instability strip

The location of the red edge of the ZZ Ceti instability strip is defined observationally as being the lowest temperature for which a white dwarf with a H-rich atmosphere (DA) is known to exhibit periodic brightness variations. Whether this cut-off in flux variations is actually due to a cessation of pulsation or merely due to the attenuation of any variations by the convection zone, rendering them invisible, is not clear. The latter is a theoretical possibility because with decreasing effective temperature, the emergent flux variations become an ever smaller fraction of the amplitude of the flux variations in the interior. In contrast to the flux variations, the visibility of the velocity variations associated with the pulsations is not thought to be similarly affected. Thus, models imply that were it still pulsating, a white dwarf just below the observed red edge should show velocity variations. In order to test this possibility, we used time-resolved spectra of three DA white dwarfs that do not show photometric variability, but which have derived temperatures only slightly lower than the coolest ZZ Ceti variables. We find that none of our three targets show significant periodic velocity variations, and set 95% confidence limits on amplitudes of 3.0, 5.2, and 8.8 km s(-1). Thus, for two out of our three objects, we can rule out velocity variations as large as 5.4 km s(-1) observed for the strongest mode in the cool white dwarf pulsator ZZ Psc. In order to verify our procedures, we also examined similar data of a known ZZ Ceti, HL Tau 76. Applying external information from the light curve, we detect significant velocity variations for this object with amplitudes of up to 4 km s(-1). Our results suggest that substantial numbers of pulsators having large velocity amplitudes do not exist below the observed photometric red edge and that the latter probably reflects a real termination of pulsations.