Mercados laborales en entornos de conflictos armados: un análisis empírico para Colombia

Históricamente se ha reconocido que los conflictos internos afectan de manera directa variables a nivel individual como la salud de las personas, los niveles de escolaridad y el desplazamiento forzoso de los afectados. Sin embargo, solo hasta la última década las investigaciones académicas se han inclinado en documentar y cuantificar rigurosamente los efectos colaterales de la violencia sobre las condiciones de vida de los individuos. La presente investigación estudia cómo la exposición al conflicto en Colombia ha afectado las decisiones en términos de mercado laboral de las personas. La estrategia de identificación internaliza los reconocidos problemas de endogeneidad del conflicto con variables de actividad y desarrollo económico y presenta resultados robustos a fenómenos de migración interna y desplazamiento. En términos de participación laboral y desempleo, se encuentran efectos heterogéneos a nivel de género como respuestas a la violencia experimentada. En particular, la probabilidad de participación laboral de las mujeres se incremente como consecuencia de la exposición al conflicto, mientras que la de desempleo disminuye. Para los hombres, los resultados muestran una menor probabilidad de participación, efecto contrario al de las mujeres, y un efecto análogo en términos de desempleo. La investigación no encuentra efectos diferenciales en términos de informalidad laboral.

Developing a system for assessing the costs associated with different procurement routes in the construction industry

In developing techniques for monitoring the costs associated with different procurement routes, the central task is disentangling the various project costs incurred by organizations taking part in construction projects. While all firms are familiar with the need to analyse their own costs, it is unusual to apply the same kind of analysis to projects. The purpose of this research is to examine the claims that new ways of working such as strategic alliancing and partnering bring positive business benefits. This requires that costs associated with marketing, estimating, pricing, negotiation of terms, monitoring of performance and enforcement of contract are collected for a cross-section of projects under differing arrangements, and from those in the supply chain from clients to consultants, contractors, sub-contractors and suppliers. Collaboration with industrial partners forms the basis for developing a research instrument, based on time sheets, which will be relevant for all those taking part in the work. The signs are that costs associated with tendering are highly variable, 1-15%, depending upon what precisely is taken into account. The research to date reveals that there are mechanisms for measuring the costs of transactions and these will generate useful data for subsequent analysis.

Recent advances in capillary electrophoresis methods for food analysis

This review article addresses recent advances in the analysis of foods and food components by capillary electrophoresis (CE). CE has found application to a number of important areas of food analysis, including quantitative chemical analysis of food additives, biochemical analysis of protein composition, and others. The speed, resolution and simplicity of CE, combined with low operating costs, make the technique an attractive option for the development of improved methods of food analysis for the new millennium.

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting feed quality - chemical analysis and in vitro evaluation

As the ideal method of assessing the nutritive value of a feedstuff, namely offering it to the appropriate class of animal and recording the production response obtained, is neither practical nor cost effective a range of feed evaluation techniques have been developed. Each of these balances some degree of compromise with the practical situation against data generation. However, due to the impact of animal-feed interactions over and above that of feed composition, the target animal remains the ultimate arbitrator of nutritional value. In this review current in vitro feed evaluation techniques are examined according to the degree of animal-feed interaction. Chemical analysis provides absolute values and therefore differs from the majority of in vitro methods that simply rank feeds. However, with no host animal involvement, estimates of nutritional value are inferred by statistical association. In addition given the costs involved, the practical value of many analyses conducted should be reviewed. The in sacco technique has made a substantial contribution to both understanding rumen microbial degradative processes and the rapid evaluation of feeds, especially in developing countries. However, the numerous shortfalls of the technique, common to many in vitro methods, the desire to eliminate the use of surgically modified animals for routine feed evaluation, paralleled with improvements in in vitro techniques, will see this technique increasingly replaced. The majority of in vitro systems use substrate disappearance to assess degradation, however, this provides no information regarding the quantity of derived end-products available to the host animal. As measurement of volatile fatty acids or microbial biomass production greatly increases analytical costs, fermentation gas release, a simple and non-destructive measurement, has been used as an alternative. However, as gas release alone is of little use, gas-based systems, where both degradation and fermentation gas release are measured simultaneously, are attracting considerable interest. Alternative microbial inocula are being considered, as is the potential of using multi-enzyme systems to examine degradation dynamics. It is concluded that while chemical analysis will continue to form an indispensable part of feed evaluation, enhanced use will be made of increasingly complex in vitro systems. It is vital, however, the function and limitations of each methodology are fully understood and that the temptation to over-interpret the data is avoided so as to draw the appropriate conclusions. With careful selection and correct application in vitro systems offer powerful research tools with which to evaluate feedstuffs. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

A cost-benefit analysis of culling badgers to control bovine tuberculosis

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic problem. The incidence of TB in cattle herds has steadily risen in the UK, and badgers are strongly implicated in spreading disease. Since the mid-1970s the UK government has adopted a number of badger culling strategies to attempt to reduce infection in cattle. In this report, an established model has been used to simulate TB in badgers, transmission to cattle, and control by badger culling. Costs were supplied by the UK Government's Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) for badger trapping and gassing. Regardless of culling intensity or area simulated, an overall reduction in the herd breakdown rate was seen. With a high culling efficacy and no social perturbation, the mean Net Present Value of a few simulated culling strategies in an "ideal world" was positive, meaning the economic benefits outweighed the costs. Further work is required before these results could be considered definitive, as it is necessary to evaluate uncertainties and simulate less than perfect conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimality analysis of Th1/Th2 immune responses during microparasite-macroparasite co-infection, with epidemiological feedbacks

Individuals are typically co-infected by a diverse community of microparasites (e.g. viruses or protozoa) and macroparasites (e.g. helminths). Vertebrates respond to these parasites differently, typically mounting T helper type 1 (Th1) responses against microparasites and Th2 responses against macroparasites. These two responses may be antagonistic such that hosts face a 'decision' of how to allocate potentially limiting resources. Such decisions at the individual host level will influence parasite abundance at the population level which, in turn, will feed back upon the individual level. We take a first step towards a complete theoretical framework by placing an analysis of optimal immune responses under microparasite-macroparasite co-infection within an epidemiological framework. We show that the optimal immune allocation is quantitatively sensitive to the shape of the trade-off curve and qualitatively sensitive to life-history traits of the host, microparasite and macroparasite. This model represents an important first step in placing optimality models of the immune response to co-infection into an epidemiological framework. Ultimately, however, a more complete framework is needed to bring together the optimal strategy at the individual level and the population-level consequences of those responses, before we can truly understand the evolution of host immune responses under parasite co-infection.

Modification of hemicellulose content by antisense down-regulation of UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase in tobacco and its consequences for cellulose extractability

Extractability and recovery of cellulose from cell walls influences many industrial processes and also the utilisation of biomass for energy purposes. The utility of genetic manipulation of lignin has proven potential for optimising such processes and is also advantageous for the environment. Hemicelluloses, particularly secondary wall xylans, also influence the extractability of cellulose. UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase produces UDP-xylose, the precursor for xylans and the effect of its down-regulation on cell wall structure and cellulose extractability in transgenic tobacco has been investigated. Since there are a number of potential UDP-glucuronate decarboxylase genes, a 490 bp sequence of high similarity between members of the family, was chosen for general alteration of the expression of the gene family. Sense and antisense transgenic lines were analysed for enzyme activity using a modified and optimised electrophoretic assay, for enzyme levels by western blotting and for secondary cell wall composition. Some of the down-regulated antisense plants showed high glucose to xylose ratios in xylem walls due to less xylose-containing polymers, while arabinose and uronic acid contents, which could also have been affected by any change in UDP-xylose provision, were unchanged. The overall morphology and stem lignin content of the modified lines remained little changed compared with wild-type. However, there were some changes in vascular organisation and reduction of xylans in the secondary walls was confirmed by immunocytochemistry. Pulping analysis showed a decreased pulp yield and a higher Kappa number in some lines compared with controls, indicating that they were less delignified, although the level of residual alkali was reduced. Such traits probably indicate that lignin was less available for removal in a reduced background of xylans. However, the viscosity was higher in most antisense lines, meaning that the cellulose was less broken-down during the pulping process. This is one of the first studies of a directed manipulation of hemicellulose content on cellulose extractability and shows both positive and negative outcomes.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

Criticial determinants of construction tendering costs: Quantity surveyors' standpoint

Identification of cost-determinant variables and evaluation of their degree of influence play an essential role in building reliable cost models and enhance the competitive edge of quantity surveyors as well as contracting organisations. Sixty-seven variables affecting pre-tender construction cost estimates are identified through literature and interviews. These factors are grouped into six categories and a comparison analysis of their impact is conducted. Priority ranking of cost-influencing factors is carried out using a questionnaire survey commissioned amongst quantity surveyors based in the UK. Findings of this survey indicate that there is a strong agreement between quantity surveyors in ranking cost-influencing factors of construction projects. Comparisons between the outcomes of this research and other related studies are presented.

Developing a system for assessing the costs associated with different procurement routes in the construction industry

In developing techniques for monitoring the costs associated with different procurement routes, the central task is disentangling the various project costs incurred by organizations taking part in construction projects. While all firms are familiar with the need to analyse their own costs, it is unusual to apply the same kind of analysis to projects. The purpose of this research is to examine the claims that new, ways of working such as strategic alliancing and partnering bring positive business benefits. This requires that costs associated with marketing, estimating, pricing, negotiation of terms, monitoring of performance and enforcement of contract are collected for a cross-section of projects under differing arrangements, and from those in the supply, chain from clients to consultants, contractors, subcontractors and suppliers. Collaboration with industrial partners forms the basis for developing a research instrument, bused on time sheets, which will be relevant for all those taking part in the work. The signs are that costs associated with,with tendering are highly variable, 1-15%, depending upon what precisely, is taken into account. The research to date reveals that there are mechanisms for measuring the costs of transactions and these will generate useful data for subsequent analysis.

The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

Consequences of a coexistence policy on the adoption of GMHT crops in the European Union

This article examines the adoption of genetically modified herbicide tolerant (GMHT) crops in the European Union (EU) prior to its commercial release. A set of potential drivers including the implementation of coexistence measures by farmers, farmers’ own motivational factors (e.g. economic, environmental and technical factors) and perceived social pressure to accept or reject adoption may influence European Union farmers’ willingness to adopt GMHT oilseed rape and GMHT maize. The analysis includes economic and sociological factors. Results show that coexistence measures may hamper GMHT adoption in the EU.

Multiple-project discount rates for cost-benefit analysis in construction projects: A formal risk model for microgeneration renewable energy technologies

The traditional economic approach for appraising the costs and benefits of construction project Net Present Values involves the calculation of net returns for each investment option under different discount rates. An alternative approach consists of multiple-project discount rates based on risk modelling. The example of a portfolio of microgeneration renewable energy technology (MRET) is presented to demonstrate that risks and future available budget for re-investment can be taken into account when setting discount rates for construction project specifications in presence of uncertainty. A formal demonstration is carried out through a reversed intertemporal approach of applied general equilibrium. It is demonstrated that risk and the estimated available budget for future re-investment can be included in the simultaneous assessment of the costs and benefits of multiple projects.