Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

Public debt management, monetary policy and financial institutions

Despite the large size of the Brazilian debt market, as well the large diversity of its bonds, the picture that emerges is of a market that has not yet completed its transition from the role it performed during the megainflation years, namely that of providing a liquid asset that provided positive real returns. This unfinished transition is currently placing the market under severe stress, as fears of a possible default from the next administration grow larger. This paper analyzes several aspects pertaining to the management of the domestic public debt. The causes for the extremely large and fast growth ofthe domestic public debt during the seven-year period that President Cardoso are discussed in Section 2. Section 3 computes Value at Risk and Cash Flow at Risk measures for the domestic public debt. The rollover risk is introduced in a mean-variance framework in Section 4. Section 5 discusses a few issues pertaining to the overlap between debt management and monetary policy. Finally, Section 6 wraps up with policy discussion and policy recommendations.

Reforming the global financial architecture: the potential of regional institutions

Includes bibliography

European financial institutions: a useful inspiration for developing countries?

Includes bibliography

The improvement of labour-market institutions in Latin America: progress and challenges

Includes bibliography

Regulación y supervisión de la banca e instituciones financieras: estudios de caso de América Latina y el Caribe: conclusiones y recomendaciones, Santiago 3-5 diciembre 1990 y 22-23 agosto 1991 = Regulation and supervision of banks and financial institutions: case studies in Latin America and the Caribbean: conclusions and recommendations, Santiago, 3-5 December 1990 and 22-23 August 1991

Documentos presentados a dos seminarios realizados en la Sede de CEPAL en Santiago entre el 3 y 5 de diciembre de 1990 y el 22 y 23 de agosto de 1991

Generating inclusive and sustainable growth: the role of policy and multilevel fiscal institutions

Incluye bibliografía

Technological evaluation of biotechnology capability in Amazon institutions

Includes bibliography

Relationship between social and economic institutions: a theoretical model applicable to Latin America

Includes bibliography

Economic policy, institutions and productive development in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Public institutions and explicit and implicit environmental policies

Includes bibliography

Institutions and growth: can human capital be a link?

Includes bibliography

The role of institutions in local contexts

Includes bibliography