Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

Simulations of electrophoretic collisions of DNA knots with gel obstacles

Gel electrophoresis can be used to separate nicked circular DNA molecules of equal length but forming different knot types. At low electric fields, complex knots drift faster than simpler knots. However, at high electric field the opposite is the case and simpler knots migrate faster than more complex knots. Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the reasons of this reversal of relative order of electrophoretic mobility of DNA molecules forming different knot types. We observe that at high electric fields the simulated knotted molecules tend to hang over the gel fibres and require passing over a substantial energy barrier to slip over the impeding gel fibre. At low electric field the interactions of drifting molecules with the gel fibres are weak and there are no significant energy barriers that oppose the detachment of knotted molecules from transverse gel fibres.

The cooperative induction of hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha and STAT3 during hypoxia induced an impairment of tumor susceptibility to CTL-mediated cell lysis.

Hypoxia is an essential component of tumor microenvironment. In this study, we investigated the influence of hypoxia (1% PO(2)) on CTL-mediated tumor cell lysis. We demonstrate that exposure of target tumor cells to hypoxia has an inhibitory effect on the CTL clone (Heu171)-induced autologous target cell lysis. Such inhibition correlates with hypoxia-inducible factor-1alpha (HIF-1alpha) induction but is not associated with an alteration of CTL reactivity as revealed by granzyme B polarization or morphological change. Western blot analysis indicates that although hypoxia had no effect on p53 accumulation, it induced the phosphorylation of STAT3 in tumor cells by a mechanism at least in part involving vascular endothelial growth factor secretion. We additionally show that a simultaneous nuclear translocation of HIF-1alpha and phospho-STAT3 was observed. Interestingly, gene silencing of STAT3 by small interfering RNA resulted in HIF-1alpha inhibition and a significant restoration of target cell susceptibility to CTL-induced killing under hypoxic conditions by a mechanism involving at least in part down-regulation of AKT phosphorylation. Moreover, knockdown of HIF-1alpha resulted in the restoration of target cell lysis under hypoxic conditions. This was further supported by DNA microarray analysis where STAT3 inhibition resulted in a partly reversal of the hypoxia-induced gene expression profile. The present study demonstrates that the concomitant hypoxic induction of phospho-STAT3 and HIF-1alpha are functionally linked to the alteration of non-small cell lung carcinoma target susceptibility to CTL-mediated killing. Considering the eminent functions of STAT3 and HIF-1alpha in the tumor microenvironment, their targeting may represent novel strategies for immunotherapeutic intervention.

Symmetric Brownian motor

In this paper, we present a model of a symmetric Brownian motor which changes the sign of its velocity when the temperature gradient is inverted. The velocity, external work, and efficiency are studied as a function of the temperatures of the baths and other relevant parameters. The motor shows a current reversal when another parameter (a phase shift) is varied. Analytical predictions and results from numerical simulations are performed and agree very well. Generic properties of this type of motor are discussed.

Preisach modeling of hysteresis for a pseudoelastic Cu-Zn-Al single crystal

Stress-strain trajectories associated with pseudoelastic behavior of a Cu¿19.4 Zn¿13.1 Al (at.%) single crystal at room temperature have been determined experimentally. For a constant cross-head speed the trajectories and the associated hysteresis behavior are perfectly reproducible; the trajectories exhibit memory properties, dependent only on the values of return points, where transformation direction is reverted. An adapted version of the Preisach model for hysteresis has been implemented to predict the observed trajectories, using a set of experimental first¿order reversal curves as input data. Explicit formulas have been derived giving all trajectories in terms of this data set, with no adjustable parameters. Comparison between experimental and calculated trajectories shows a much better agreement for descending than for ascending paths, an indication of a dissymmetry between the dissipation mechanisms operative in forward and reverse directions of martensitic transformation.

Microscopic origin of exchange bias in core/shell nanoparticles

We report the results of Monte Carlo simulations with the aim to clarify the microscopic origin of exchange bias in the magnetization hysteresis loops of a model of individual core/shell nanoparticles. Increase of the exchange coupling across the core/shell interface leads to an enhancement of exchange bias and to an increasing asymmetry between the two branches of the loops which is due to different reversal mechanisms. A detailed study of the magnetic order of the interfacial spins shows compelling evidence that the existence of a net magnetization due to uncompensated spins at the shell interface is responsible for both phenomena and allows to quantify the loop shifts directly in terms of microscopic parameters with striking agreement with the macroscopic observed values.

Dual Blockade of PD-1 and CTLA-4 Combined with Tumor Vaccine Effectively Restores T-Cell Rejection Function in Tumors.

Tumor progression is facilitated by regulatory T cells (Treg) and restricted by effector T cells. In this study, we document parallel regulation of CD8(+) T cells and Foxp3(+) Tregs by programmed death-1 (PD-1, PDCD1). In addition, we identify an additional role of CTL antigen-4 (CTLA-4) inhibitory receptor in further promoting dysfunction of CD8(+) T effector cells in tumor models (CT26 colon carcinoma and ID8-VEGF ovarian carcinoma). Two thirds of CD8(+) tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) expressed PD-1, whereas one third to half of CD8(+) TIL coexpressed PD-1 and CTLA-4. Double-positive (PD-1(+)CTLA-4(+)) CD8(+) TIL had characteristics of more severe dysfunction than single-positive (PD-1(+) or CTLA-4(+)) TIL, including an inability to proliferate and secrete effector cytokines. Blockade of both PD-1 and CTLA-4 resulted in reversal of CD8(+) TIL dysfunction and led to tumor rejection in two thirds of mice. Double blockade was associated with increased proliferation of antigen-specific effector CD8(+) and CD4(+) T cells, antigen-specific cytokine release, inhibition of suppressive functions of Tregs, and upregulation of key signaling molecules critical for T-cell function. When used in combination with GVAX vaccination (consisting of granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor-expressing irradiated tumor cells), inhibitory pathway blockade induced rejection of CT26 tumors in 100% of mice and ID8-VEGF tumors in 75% of mice. Our study indicates that PD-1 signaling in tumors is required for both suppressing effector T cells and maintaining tumor Tregs, and that PD-1/PD-L1 pathway (CD274) blockade augments tumor inhibition by increasing effector T-cell activity, thereby attenuating Treg suppression. Cancer Res; 73(12); 3591-603. ©2013 AACR.

General method to determine replica symmetry breaking transitions

We introduce a new parameter to investigate replica symmetry breaking transitions using finite-size scaling methods. Based on exact equalities initially derived by F. Guerra this parameter is a direct check of the self-averaging character of the spin-glass order parameter. This new parameter can be used to study models with time reversal symmetry but its greatest interest lies in models where this symmetry is absent. We apply the method to long-range and short-range Ising spin-glasses with and without a magnetic field as well as short-range multispin interaction spin-glasses.

Phenomenological approach to nonlinear Langevin equations

In this paper we address the problem of consistently constructing Langevin equations to describe fluctuations in nonlinear systems. Detailed balance severely restricts the choice of the random force, but we prove that this property, together with the macroscopic knowledge of the system, is not enough to determine all the properties of the random force. If the cause of the fluctuations is weakly coupled to the fluctuating variable, then the statistical properties of the random force can be completely specified. For variables odd under time reversal, microscopic reversibility and weak coupling impose symmetry relations on the variable-dependent Onsager coefficients. We then analyze the fluctuations in two cases: Brownian motion in position space and an asymmetric diode, for which the analysis based in the master equation approach is known. We find that, to the order of validity of the Langevin equation proposed here, the phenomenological theory is in agreement with the results predicted by more microscopic models

Onsager symmetry principle for a particle moving through a fluid not in equilibrium

We have shown that the mobility tensor for a particle moving through an arbitrary homogeneous stationary flow satisfies generalized Onsager symmetry relations in which the time-reversal transformation should also be applied to the external forces that keep the system in the stationary state. It is then found that the lift forces, responsible for the motion of the particle in a direction perpendicular to its velocity, have different parity than the drag forces.

Dimerization of polyacetylene treated as a spin-Peierls distortion of the Heisenberg Hamiltonian

Extracting a bond-length-dependent Heisenberg-like Hamiltonian from the potential-energy surfaces of the two lowest states of ethylene, it is possible to study the geometry of polyacetylene by minimization of the cohesive energy, using both variational-cluster and Rayleigh-Schrödinger perturbative expansions. The dimerization amplitude is satisfactorily reproduced. Optimizing the variational-cluster-expansion total energy with the equal-bond-length constraint, the barrier to reversal of alternation is obtained. The alternating-to-regular phase transition is treated from the Néel-state starting function and appears to be of second order.

Monte Carlo study of the finite-size effects on the magnetization of maghemite small particles

Monte Carlo simulations of a model for gamma-Fe2O3 (maghemite) single particle of spherical shape are presented aiming at the elucidation of the specific role played by the finite size and the surface on the anomalous magnetic behavior observed in small particle systems at low temperature. The influence of the finite-size effects on the equilibrium properties of extensive magnitudes, field coolings, and hysteresis loops is studied and compared to the results for periodic boundaries. It is shown that for the smallest sizes the thermal demagnetization of the surface completely dominates the magnetization while the behavior of the core is similar to that of the periodic boundary case, independently of D. The change in shape of the hysteresis loops with D demonstrates that the reversal mode is strongly influenced by the presence of broken links and disorder at the surface

Vortex state and effect of anisotropy in sub-100 nm magnetic nanodots

Magnetic properties of Fe nanodots are simulated using a scaling technique and Monte Carlo method, in good agreement with experimental results. For the 20-nm-thick dots with diameters larger than 60¿nm, the magnetization reversal via vortex state is observed. The role of magnetic interaction between dots in arrays in the reversal process is studied as a function of nanometric center-to-center distance. When this distance is more than twice the dot diameter, the interaction can be neglected and the magnetic properties of the entire array are determined by the magnetic configuration of the individual dots. The effect of crystalline anisotropy on the vortex state is investigated. For arrays of noninteracting dots, the anisotropy strongly affects the vortex nucleation field and coercivity, and only slightly affects the vortex annihilation field

Corticosterone inhibits the lipid-mobilizing effects of oleoyl-estrone in adrenalectomized rats

Oleoyl-estrone (OE) is an adipose-derived signal that decreases energy intake and body lipid, maintaining energy expenditure and glycemic homeostasis. Glucocorticoids protect body lipid and the metabolic status quo. We studied the combined effects of OE and corticosterone in adrenalectomized female rats: daily OE gavages (0 or 10 nmol/g) and slow-release corticosterone pellets at four doses (0, 0.5, 1.7, and 4.8 mg/d). Intact and sham-operated controls were also included. After 8 d, body composition and plasma metabolites and hormones were measured. OE induced a massive lipid mobilization (in parallel with decreased food intake and maintained energy expenditure). Corticosterone increased fat deposition and inhibited the OE-elicited mobilization of body energy, even at the lowest dose. OE enhanced the corticosterone-induced rise in plasma triacylglycerols, and corticosterone blocked the OE-induced decrease in leptin. High corticosterone and OE increased insulin resistance beyond the effects of corticosterone alone. The presence of corticosterone dramatically affected OE effects, reversing its decrease of body energy (lipid) content, with little or no change on food intake or energy expenditure. The maintenance of glycemia and increasing insulin in parallel to the dose of corticosterone indicate a decrease in insulin sensitivity, which is enhanced by OE. The reversal of OE effects on lipid handling, insulin resistance, can be the consequence of a corticosterone-induced OE resistance. Nevertheless, OE effects on cholesterol were largely unaffected. In conclusion, corticosterone administration effectively blocked OE effects on body lipid and energy balance as well as insulin sensitivity and glycemia.

Characterising avian haemosporidian communities : ecological factors, parasite persistence and co-infection

Les parasites jouent un rôle clef dans l'évolution des comportements et des traits d'histoire de vie de leurs hôtes. Le parasitisme s'avère parfois dévastateur à l'échelle de population d'hôtes, et peut également altérer certains traits associés à la valeur sélective d'un individu infecté, tels que son succès reproducteur ou encore son taux de mortalité. La coévolution hôte/parasite, qui représente l'une des forces sélectives les plus puissantes dans l'évolution des organismes, peut également conduire les partenaires de l'association parasitaire à s'adapter localement à des environnements hétérogènes. Cette thèse porte sur l'étude de parasites aviaires, du genre Plasmodium, Haemopro- teus et Leucocytozoon (Haemosporidae), naturellement associés à différentes populations de mésanges charbonnières (Parus major) et d'hirondelles des fenêtres (Delichon ur- bicum). Dans un premier temps, nous avons cherché à déterminer comment se distribuent ces parasites au sein de différentes populations hôtes et si ces communautés de parasites sont structurées. Par la suite, la principale question à laquelle nous voulions répondre était de savoir comment ces parasites, et notamment après coexistence de plusieurs lignées génétiques d'Haemosporidae au sein dun même-individu (i.e. co-infection), affectent la physiologie et le succès de reproducteur des hôtes. Nos résultats suggèrent que la distribution des Haemosporidae est principalement gouvernée par la présence d'insectes vecteurs et que la persistance de l'infection chez les hôtes varie en fonction du genre d'Haemosporidae (Chapitre 1-2). Par ailleurs, nous avons trouvé que des lignées de parasite génétiquement distinctes peuvent avoir des effets contrastés sur leurs hôtes. Par exemple, les hôtes exhibent des différences de parasitémie marquées en fonction des lignées de parasites responsable de l'infection. De plus, le succès reproducteur ainsi que la charge parasitaire des mésanges infectées par Plasmodium ou Haemoproteus n'étaient pas affecté par l'infection simultanée avec Leucocytozoon (Chapitre 2-3). Dans le Chapitre 4, j'ai examiné la capacité immunitaire de mésanges charbonnières infectées par des hémosporidies. Les résultats n'ont pas été concluant, et je suggère fortement une réévaluation de ceux-ci dans de futures études. Les mésanges charbonnières ne semblent pas signaler leur statut infectieux par la coloration de leur plumage (Chapitre 5); toutefois, la coloration noire des plumes reflète l'état de stress oxydatif des mésanges, qui dépend lui-même de l'infection parasitaire. La coloration verte pourrait également indiquer la qualité des soins paxentaux délivrés par les mésanges adultes femelles à leurs petits, comme le suggère la corrélation que nous avons observée entre la masse des jeunes d'une nichée et la coloration de leur mère. Les hirondelles capturées en Algérie souffrent plus de l'infection que celles échantillon¬nées en Europe (Chapitre 6). Les similitudes observées entre les communautés de par¬asites affectant les populations européennes et celles des populations nord-africaines suggèrent que la transmission des parasites a lieu lors de la migration vers le sud. A l'instar de nos observations sur les mésanges dans les chapitres 2 et 3, les hirondelles co-infectées ne montrent pas d'altérations de leur condition physique. Cette thèse démontre qu'il existe, au sein des populations de mésanges charbonnières, des interactions antagonistes entre, d'une part, les parasites et leurs hôtes et d'autre part, entre différent parasites. Le résultat de ces interactions antagonistes varie en fonction des espèces et de la zone géographique considérée. Nous avons démontré que les interactions ne suivent pas toujours la théorie, puisque la coevolution qui, en suivant le concept de la virulence, devrait augmenter la charge parasitaire et diminuer la condition physique des hôtes, ne montre pourtant pas d'impact négatif sur les populations de mésanges. Nous pouvons maintenant concentrer nos efforts à la caractérisation des interactions antagonistes. De plus, grâce aux avancées des méthodes moléculaires, nous pouvons suivre et étudier en détails comment ces interactions se manifestent et quels sont leurs effets sur la condition physique des hôtes. - Parasites are key in shaping various behavioural and life-history traits of their hosts. The influence of parasitism on host populations varies from slight to devastating and might influence such parameters as mortality rates or reproductive success. Host-parasite coevolution is one of the most powerful selective forces in evolution and can lead to local adaptation of parasites and hosts in spatially structured environments. In this thesis, I studied haemosporidian parasites in different populations of great tits (Parus major) and house martins (Delichon urbicum). Firstly, I wanted to determine how parasites are distributed and if parasite communities are structured. The main question I wanted to address hereafter was how parasites, and specifically infection with multiple genera of parasites (i.e. co-infection) influenced host physiology and reproductive success. I found that parasite distribution is environmentally driven and could therefore be closely linked to vector prevalence; and that the stability of parasite infection over time is genus-dependent (Chapter 1 - 2). I further found that different haemosporidian lineages might interact differently with their hosts as parasitaemia was strongly lineage-specific and that the presence of Leucocytozoon parasites showed no correlation to Plasmodium or Haemoproteus parasitaemia, nor to great tit reproductive success (Chapter 2-3). In Chapter 4 I examined immune capacity of haemosporidian-infected great tits. The results proved inconclusive, and I strongly suggest re-evaluation hereof in future work. Great tits do not appear to signal parasite infection through plumage colouration (Chapter 5); however, infection did have a link to oxidative stress resistance which is strongly signalled through the black breast stripe, with darker males being more resistant and darker females less resistant. Females might incur different costs associated with darker stripes. This would allow reversal of signaling function. Green colouration could also serve as a cue for female provisioning quality as indicated by the strong correlation between colouration and chick body mass. Breeding house martins caught in Algeria suffer greater haemosporidian infection than European populations (Chapter 6). Similar parasite communities in European and North-African populations suggest transmission of parasites may occur during southward migration. Similarly to what was observed in great tits in Chapter 2 and 3, no relationship was found between parasite co-infection and Swiss house martin body condition. This thesis demonstrates that host-parasite and inter-parasite antagonistic interac¬tions exist in great tit populations. How these interactions play out is species dependent and varies geographically. I have demonstrated that interactions do not always follow the theory, as co-infection - which under the concept of virulence should increase parasitaemia and decrease body condition - showed no negative impact on great tit populations. We can now concentrate our efforts on characterising these antagonistic interactions, and with the advance in molecular methods, track and investigate how these interactions play out and what the effect on host fitness is.