Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the extratropical winter stratosphere in an atmospheric general circulation model and in reanalysis data

The interannual variability of the stratospheric polar vortex during winter in both hemispheres is observed to correlate strongly with the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical stratospheric winds. It follows that the lack of a spontaneously generated QBO in most atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) adversely affects the nature of polar variability in such models. This study examines QBO–vortex coupling in an AGCM in which a QBO is spontaneously induced by resolved and parameterized waves. The QBO–vortex coupling in the AGCM compares favorably to that seen in reanalysis data [from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40)], provided that careful attention is given to the definition of QBO phase. A phase angle representation of the QBO is employed that is based on the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of equatorial zonal wind vertical profiles. This yields a QBO phase that serves as a proxy for the vertical structure of equatorial winds over the whole depth of the stratosphere and thus provides a means of subsampling the data to select QBO phases with similar vertical profiles of equatorial zonal wind. Using this subsampling, it is found that the QBO phase that induces the strongest polar vortex response in early winter differs from that which induces the strongest late-winter vortex response. This is true in both hemispheres and for both the AGCM and ERA-40. It follows that the strength and timing of QBO influence on the vortex may be affected by the partial seasonal synchronization of QBO phase transitions that occurs both in observations and in the model. This provides a mechanism by which changes in the strength of QBO–vortex correlations may exhibit variability on decadal time scales. In the model, such behavior occurs in the absence of external forcings or interannual variations in sea surface temperatures.

Interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the late 1990s

The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.

An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with the Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.

Genetic variability and differentiation in the Mediterranean endemic starry ray Raja asterias (Delaroche, 1809)

The present study deal with the population structure and connectivity of the Mediterranean endemic starry ray Raja asterias (Delaroche, 1809) in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean basin. A panel of eight microsatellite loci which cross-amplify in Rajidae (El Nagar, 2010) was used to assess population connectivity and structure. Those aims were investigated by analyzing the genetic variation of 9 population sample for a total of 185 individuals collected during past scientific surveys (MEDITS, GRUND), commercial trawling and also directly at fish markets. The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the genetic divergence occurring between the Mediterranean populations and, in particular, to assess the presence of any barrier (geographic, hydrogeological and biological) to gene flow for this species. Different statistical approaches were performed to reach this aim evaluating both the genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity, allelic richness, observed and expected heterozygosity and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium test) and the population differentiation patterns (pairwise Fst estimated and population structure analysis). The results obtained from the analysis of the microsatellite dataset suggest a geographic and genetic separation between the starry ray populations of the Mediterranean basin into three or four distinct groups: Western and Eastern Mediterranean basins and Sicilian coast always clustering as an independent group and Algeria which could be or not considered another separate group. The data were discussed from both an evolutionary and a conservation point of view and in relation to previous results obtained by the analysis of mitochondrial marker. A comparison with other Mediterranean demersal skate species was performed in order to better contextualise our results. Finally, our results could offer useful information to protect vulnerable species as R. asterias and developing effective conservation plans in the Mediterranean.

Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium

The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC) strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT) in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.

The Mediterranean climate: An overview of the main characteristics and issues

The Mediterranean Region has many morphologic, geographical, historical, and societal characteristics, which make its climate scientifically interesting. The concept of Mediterranean climate is characterized by mild wet winters and warm to hot, dry summers and occur on the west side of continents between about 30° and 40° latitude. However, the presence of a relatively large mass of water is unique to the actual Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean Sea is a marginal and semi-enclosed sea; it is located on the western side of a large continental area and is surrounded by Europe to the North, Africa to the South, and Asia to the East. The chapter discusses that the climate of the Mediterranean region is to a large extent forced by planetary scale patterns. The time and space behavior of the regional features associated with such large-scale forcing is complex. Orography and land–sea distribution play an important role establishing the climate at basin scale and its teleconnections with global patterns. Different levels of services of readiness to emergencies, technological, and economic resources are likely to result in very different adaptation capabilities to environmental changes and new problems. The different economic situations and demographic trends are likely to produce contrasts and conflicts in a condition of limited available resources and environmental stress.

Physical oceanography of the GOIN project in the Mediterranean Sea (1987-1990)

This set provides 1779 CTD profiles of temperature and salinity measured with a russian "Zond-Bathometer" by the research vessels Yakov Gakkel and Vladimir Parshin, of the former Soviet Union, during 1987-1990. It is dedicated to the memory of Professor Ivan Ovchinnikov (1931-07-14 to 2000-06-10) who initiated the soviet program of research of the Mediterranean Sea and contributed significantly to the investigation of physical processes in the Mediterranean Sea.

Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean

Introduction: Chemical composition of water determines its physical properties and character of processes proceeding in it: freezing temperature, volume of evaporation, density, color, transparency, filtration capacity, etc. Presence of chemical elements in water solution confers waters special physical properties exerting significant influence on their circulation, creates necessary conditions for development and inhabitance of flora and fauna, and imparts to the ocean waters some chemical features that radically differ them from the land waters (Alekin & Liakhin, 1984). Hydrochemical information helps to determine elements of water circulation, convection depth, makes it easier to distinguish water masses and gives additional knowledge of climatic variability of ocean conditions. Hydrochemical information is a necessary part of biological research. Water chemical composition can be the governing characteristics determining possibility and limits of use of marine objects, both stationary and moving in sea water. Subject of investigation of hydrochemistry is study of dynamics of chemical composition, i.e. processes of its formation and hydrochemical conditions of water bodies (Alekin & Liakhin 1984). The hydrochemical processes in the Arctic Ocean are the least known. Some information on these processes can be obtained in odd publications. A generalizing study of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean based on expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975 has been carried out by Rusanov et al. (1979). The "Atlas of the World Ocean: the Arctic Ocean" contains a special section "Hydrochemistry" (Gorshkov, 1980). Typical vertical profiles, transects and maps for different depths - 0, 100, 300, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000 m are given in this section for the following parameters: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH and alkaline-chlorine coefficient. The maps were constructed using the data of expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975. The illustrations reflect main features of distribution of the hydrochemical elements for multi-year period and represent a static image of hydrochemical conditions. Distribution of the hydrochemical elements on the ocean surface is given for two seasons - winter and summer, for the other depths are given mean annual fields. Aim of the present Atlas is description of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean on the basis of a greater body of hydrochemical information for the years 1948-2000 and using the up-to-date methods of analysis and electronic forms of presentation of hydrochemical information. The most wide-spread characteristics determined in water samples were used as hydrochemical indices. They are: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH, total alkalinity, nitrite and nitrate. An important characteristics of water salt composition - "salinity" has been considered in the Oceanographic Atlas of the Arctic Ocean (1997, 1998). Presentation of the hydrochemical characteristics in this Hydrochemical Atlas is wider if compared with that of the former Atlas (Gorshkov, 1980). Maps of climatic distribution of the hydrochemical elements were constructed for all the standard depths, and seasonal variability of the hydrochemical parameters is given not only for the surface, but also for the underlying standard depths up to 400 m and including. Statistical characteristics of the hydrochemical elements are given for the first time. Detailed accuracy estimates of initial data and map construction are also given in the Atlas. Calculated values of mean-root deviations, maximum and minimum values of the parameters demonstrate limits of their variability for the analyzed period of observations. Therefore, not only investigations of chemical statics are summarized in the Atlas, but also some elements of chemical dynamics are demonstrated. Digital arrays of the hydrochemical elements obtained in nodes of a regular grid are the new form of characteristics presentation in the Atlas. It should be mentioned that the same grid and the same boxes were used in the Atlas, as those that had been used by creation of the US-Russian climatic Oceanographic Atlas. It allows to combine hydrochemical and oceanographic information of these Atlases. The first block of the digital arrays contains climatic characteristics calculated using direct observational data. These climatic characteristics were not calculated in the regions without observations, and the information arrays for these regions have gaps. The other block of climatic information in a gridded form was obtained with the help of objective analysis of observational data. Procedure of the objective analysis allowed us to obtain climatic estimates of the hydrochemical characteristics for the whole water area of the Arctic Ocean including the regions not covered by observations. Data of the objective analysis can be widely used, in particular, in hydrobiological investigations and in modeling of hydrochemical conditions of the Arctic Ocean. Array of initial measurements is a separate block. It includes all the available materials of hydrochemical observations in the form, as they were presented in different sources. While keeping in mind that this array contains some amount of perverted information, the authors of the Atlas assumed it necessary to store this information in its primary form. Methods of data quality control can be developed in future in the process of hydrochemical information accumulation. It can be supposed that attitude can vary in future to the data that were rejected according to the procedure accepted in the Atlas. The hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean is the first specialized and electronic generalization of hydrochemical observations in the Arctic Ocean and finishes the program of joint efforts of Russian and US specialists in preparation of a number of atlases for the Arctic. The published Oceanographic Atlas (1997, 1998), Atlas of Arctic Meteorology and Climate (2000), Ice Atlas of the Arctic Ocean prepared for publication and Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean represent a united series of fundamental generalizations of empirical knowledge of Arctic Ocean nature at climatic level. The Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean was elaborated in the result of joint efforts of the SRC of the RF AARI and IARC. Dr. Ye. Nikiforov was scientific supervisor of the Atlas, Dr. R. Colony was manager on behalf of the USA and Dr. L. Timokhov - on behalf of Russia.

Intra-annual patterns of tracheid size in the Mediterranean tree Juniperus thurifera as an indicator of seasonal water stress

Because climate can affect xylem cell anatomy, series of intra-annual cell anatomical features have the potential to retrospectively supply seasonal climatic information. In this study, we explored the ability to extract information about water stress conditions from tracheid features of the Mediterranean conifer Juniperus thurifera L. Tracheidograms of four climatic years from two drought-sensitive sites in Spain were compared to evaluate whether it is possible to link intra-annual cell size patterns to seasonal climatic conditions. Results indicated site-specific anatomical adjustment such as smaller and thicker tracheids at the dryer site but also showed a strong climatic imprint on the intra-annual pattern of tracheid size. Site differences in cell size reflected expected structural adjustments against cavitation failures. Differences between intra-annual patterns, however, indicated a response to seasonal changes in water availability whereby cells formed under drought conditions were smaller and thicker, and vice versa. This relationship was more manifest and stable at the dryer site

Sea surface temperatures derived from alkenones from Late Quaternary sediments of the East Equatorial South Atlantic

Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge records of past sea surface temperatures (SST) derived from the alkenone Uk 37 index are used to reconstruct the surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic for the last 200,000 years. Comparison of SST estimates from surface sediments between 5° and 20°S with modern SST data suggests that the alkenone temperatures represent annual mean values of the surface mixed layer. Alkenone-derived temperatures for the warm climatic maxima of the Holocene and the penultimate interglacial are 1 to 4°C higher than latest Holocene values. All records show glacial to interglacial differences of about 3.5°C in annual mean SST, which is about 1.5°C greater than the difference estimated by CLIMAP (1981) for the eastern Angola Basin. At the Walvis Ridge, significant SST variance is observed at all of the Earth's orbital periodicities. SST records from the Angola Basin vary predominantly at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. For the precessional cycle, SST changes at the Walvis Ridge correspond to variations of boreal summer insolation over Africa and lead ice volume changes, suggesting that the east equatorial South Atlantic is sensitive to African monsoon intensity via trade-wind zonality. Angola Basin SST records lag those from the Walvis Ridge and the equatorial Atlantic by about 3 kyr. The comparison of Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge SST records implies that the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF) (currently at about 14-16°S) has remained fairly stationary between 12° and 20°S (the limits of our cores) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The temperature contrast associated with the ABF exhibits a periodic 23-kyr variability which is coherent with changes in boreal summer insolation over Africa. These observations suggest that surface waters north of the present ABF have not directly responded to monsoon-modulated changes in the trade-wind vector, that the central field of zonally directed trades in the southern hemisphere was not shifted or extended northward by several degrees of latitude during glacials, and that a cyclonic gyre circulation has existed in the east equatorial South Atlantic over the last 200,000 years. This scenario contradicts former assumptions of glacial intensification of the Benguela Current into the eastern Angola Basin and increased coastal upwelling off Angola.

ELPA (European Leaf Physiognomic Approach): Grid data set of the leaf physiognomic composition of the extant European hardwood vegetation

Physiognomic traits of plant leaves such as size, shape or margin are decisively affected by the prevailing environmental conditions of the plant habitat. On the other hand, if a relationship between environment and leaf physiognomy can be shown to exist, vegetation represents a proxy for environmental conditions. This study investigates the relationship between physiognomic traits of leaves from European hardwood vegetation and environmental parameters in order to create a calibration dataset based on high resolution grid cell data. The leaf data are obtained from synthetic chorologic floras, the environmental data comprise climatic and ecologic data. The high resolution of the data allows for a detailed analysis of the spatial dependencies between the investigated parameters. The comparison of environmental parameters and leaf physiognomic characters reveals a clear correlation between temperature related parameters (e.g. mean annual temperature or ground frost frequency) and the expression of leaf characters (e.g. the type of leaf margin or the base of the lamina). Precipitation related parameters (e.g. mean annual precipitation), however, show no correlation with the leaf physiognomic composition of the vegetation. On the basis of these results, transfer functions for several environmental parameters are calculated from the leaf physiognomic composition of the extant vegetation. In a next step, a cluster analysis is applied to the dataset in order to identify "leaf physiognomic communities". Several of these are distinguished, characterised and subsequently used for vegetation classification. Concerning the leaf physiognomic diversity there are precise differences between each of these "leaf physiognomic classes". There is a clear increase of leaf physiognomic diversity with increasing variability of the environmental parameters: Northern vegetation types are characterised by a more or less homogeneous leaf physiognomic composition whereas southern vegetation types like the Mediterranean vegetation show a considerable higher leaf physiognomic diversity. Finally, the transfer functions are used to estimate palaeo-environmental parameters of three fossil European leaf assemblages from Late Oligocene and Middle Miocene. The results are compared with results obtained from other palaeo-environmental reconstructing methods. The estimates based on a direct linear ordination seem to be the most realistic ones, as they are highly consistent with the Coexistence Approach.

Magnitude and variability of loading on the osseointegrated implant of transfemoral amputees during walking

This study directly measured the load acting on the abutment of the osseointegrated implant system of transfemoral amputees during level walking, and studied the variability of the load within and among amputees. Twelve active transfemoral amputees (age: 54±12 years, mass:84.3±16.3 kg, height: 17.8±0.10 m) fitted with an osseointegrated implant for over 1 year participated in the study. The load applied on the abutment was measured during unimpeded, level walking in a straight line using a commercial six-channel transducer mounted between the abutment and the prosthetic knee. The pattern and the magnitude of the three-dimensional forces and moments were revealed. Results showed a low step-to-step variability of each subject, but a high subject-to-subject variability in local extrema of body-weight normalized forces and moments and impulse data. The high subject-to-subject variability suggests that the mechanical design of the implant system should be customized for each individual, or that a fit-all design should take into consideration the highest values of load within a broad range of amputees. It also suggests specific loading regime in rehabilitation training are necessary for a given subject. Thus the loading magnitude and variability demonstrated should be useful in designing an osseointegrated implant system better able to resist mechanical failure and in refining the rehabilitation protocol.

Transcriptome Profiling of Sexual Maturation and Mating in the Mediterranean Fruit Fly, Ceratitis capitata

Sexual maturation and mating in insects are generally accompanied by major physiological and behavioural changes. Many of these changes are related to the need to locate a mate and subsequently, in the case of females, to switch from mate searching to oviposition behaviour. The prodigious reproductive capacity of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, is one of the factors that has led to its success as an invasive pest species. To identify the molecular changes related to maturation and mating status in male and female medfly, a microarray-based gene expression approach was used to compare the head transcriptomes of sexually immature, mature virgin, and mated individuals. Attention was focused on the changes in abundance of transcripts related to reproduction, behaviour, sensory perception of chemical stimulus, and immune system processes. Broad transcriptional changes were recorded during female maturation, while post-mating transcriptional changes in females were, by contrast, modest. In male medfly, transcriptional changes were consistent both during maturation and as a consequence of mating. Of particular note was the lack of the mating-induced immune responses that have been recorded for Drosophila melanogaster, that may be due to the different reproductive strategies of these species. This study, in addition to increasing our understanding of the molecular machinery behind maturation and mating in the medfly, has identified important gene targets that might be useful in the future management of this pest.